This a tough one to analyze. You could argue that the very small players
that are successful at the junior level, have already internalized better than
average self-protection techniques. Whether these techniques translate to
the NHL might be very individual. So with a small sample size, and more
specialized adaptions, it's difficult to reach any useful conclusion.
The small sample size is somewhat conclusive, in and of itself.
The biggest issue I see with him are injuries based on his reckless style. He may be a guy that will give you energy and 50 points a year(28-22-50) in 70 games and you just take it. As long as he plays with a decent playmaker, I see 25-30 goals on a pretty regular basis(injuries will be a factor) not being a stretch.
He will score some garbage ones by driving the net and also some "snipes" by getting open and ripping it.
He's good and he's gonna get better with experience. I'll say a 30 goals scorer, 75 pts in his 2 or 3 better years.
Then he's gonna get older and he'll have to tone down his play because of injuries/concussion. Then he'll never be better than what Gionta is right now, which is ok.
Maybe people just enjoy being fans. That, after all, is why they're here.
No need for you to get annoyed about it.
far from annoyed, but the same ones calling him a legit 30 goal scorer, will be the first to crap all over him when he goes 12 games without a point. Saying he is too small.
Lets see if he can sustain consistency for more than 10 games in a lockout season. Just saying.
far from annoyed, but the same ones calling him a legit 30 goal scorer, will be the first to crap all over him when he goes 12 games without a point. Saying he is too small.
Lets see if he can sustain consistency for more than 10 games in a lockout season. Just saying.
Has anyone counted? Do players 5'10" and under get injured as often as
players 6'3" and over. That seems unlikely?
I would expect taller players to get injured more often, and more seriously.
5'10 is stretching it as far as inclusion into the "very smallest of NHL players" category. Look at the sharp divide in relative proportions you get if you count the number of 5'10"+ players vs 5'9" and below. Then see how much farther it drops if only 5'8" and below are counted. Wanna go 5'7" and below?
Then ask, why exactly aren't there more of these guys in the past ~30/40 years of the NHL, because we see dozens of them tear up junior leagues offensively each year in North America alone, let alone world-wide at this point. The answer is: the physical demands of the North American pro hockey game - not lack of skills.
5'10 is stretching it as far as inclusion into the "very smallest of NHL players" category. Look at the sharp divide in relative proportions you get if you count the number of 5'10"+ players vs 5'9" and below. Then see how much farther it drops if only 5'8" and below are counted. Wanna go 5'7" and below?
Then ask, why exactly aren't there more of these guys in the past ~30/40 years of the NHL, because we see dozens of them tear up junior leagues offensively each year in North America alone, let alone world-wide at this point. The answer is: the physical demands of the North American pro hockey game - not lack of skills.
Yes you would have a more clearly defined group if you took players
5'8" and under. But I'm guessing the effect would show up if you looked
at a 5'10" and under sample. And you'd certainly get a much better sample
size. Anyhow, the point is; being much shorter than average isn't related to
a much greater chance of serious injury. Being much taller is to a greater degree.
The difficulty of competing successfully against taller players is for reasons
other than chance of injury.
The reason I'm still posting about this is because there a conventional
wisdom that small players are more vulnerable to injury. I do not believe
that is true.
'
Yes you would have a more clearly defined group if you took players
5'8" and under. But I'm guessing the effect would show up if you looked
at a 5'10" and under sample. And you'd certainly get a much better sample
size. Anyhow, the point is; being much shorter than average isn't related to
a much greater chance of serious injury. Being much taller is to a greater degree.
The difficulty of competing successfully against taller players is for reasons
other than chance of injury.
The reason I'm still posting about this is because there a conventional
wisdom that small players are more vulnerable to injury. I do not believe
that is true.
'
To me, Gallagher's "chances" of injuries are not related to his height or weigth. It is related to both added to his style of play.
And my fear isn't about major injuries. It is about the amount of little injuries and bruises that may force him to tone down his intensity. Then, if he learn to play the game, he'll still be efficient, like Gionta or Koivu. But if he's only relying on his agressiveness, he won't last long as a top-6 player.
Beside, 2 concussions is something to keep an eye on. Those injuries are piling up and usually get worse.
To me, Gallagher's "chances" of injuries are not related to his height or weigth. It is related to both added to his style of play.
And my fear isn't about major injuries. It is about the amount of little injuries and bruises that may force him to tone down his intensity. Then, if he learn to play the game, he'll still be efficient, like Gionta or Koivu. But if he's only relying on his agressiveness, he won't last long as a top-6 player.
Beside, 2 concussions is something to keep an eye on. Those injuries are piling up and usually get worse.
It may depend on his learning to pick his spots to some extent. And to be
more aware of when he is leaving himself more vulnerable. Hopefully he can
do that without losing what makes him effective.
The reason I'm still posting about this is because there a conventional
wisdom that small players are more vulnerable to injury. I do not believe
that is true.
'
You don't get to see much of the effect at the NHL level, because the few small guys that actually make it... deserve it. Natural selection occurs at the level before lucrative contracts are offered to players, and the real costly process of asset selection/development begins - i.e. at the junior level.
Look back (it won't take many years, I promise you) at the top 20 scorers from the QMJHL, OHL, and WHL, separate them into groups based on their height, tell me where they went after junior, and see what trends you find. I've been following hockey a loooong time, so I've looked back at this many times before. You'll find, almost without exception, that the talented small guys (who continued to play past junior) have moved onto leagues (often European) where the physical demand isn't nearly as great - and thus there's lower risk/chance of injury.
Now, they didn't get injured and THEN pursue hockey dreams outside the NHL. They get weeded out before that level if it's ascertained that it'd be a physical liability (and a risk to the player's health) putting him on NHL ice. So, again, it isn't about looking at the few small guys who HAVE made it to draw conclusions, it's about looking at the thousands upon thousands who HAVEN'T - often despite truly gaudy junior numbers and/or offensive talent.
You don't get to see much of the effect at the NHL level, because the few small guys that actually make it... deserve it. Natural selection occurs at the level before lucrative contracts are offered to players, and the real costly process of asset selection/development begins - i.e. at the junior level.
Look back (it won't take many years, I promise you) at the top 20 scorers from the QMJHL, OHL, and WHL, separate them into groups based on their height, tell me where they went after junior, and see what trends you find. I've been following hockey a loooong time, so I've looked back at this many times before. You'll find, almost without exception, that the talented small guys (who continued to play past junior) have moved onto leagues (often European) where the physical demand isn't nearly as great - and thus there's lower risk/chance of injury.
Now, they didn't get injured and THEN pursue hockey dreams outside the NHL. They get weeded out before that level if it's ascertained that it'd be a physical liability (and a risk to the player's health) putting him on NHL ice. So, again, it isn't about looking at the few small guys who HAVE made it to draw conclusions, it's about looking at the thousands upon thousands who HAVEN'T - often despite truly gaudy junior numbers and/or offensive talent.
I agree with everything you have said there. At least in general. In fact,
this selection process you refer to, is one reason I think very short players
get injured less in the NHL. Their selection more often happens at lower
levels of competition. The ones that fight through to the NHL, are more
experienced at playing against opponents bigger than themselves. And
those more vulnerable to injury get weeded out earlier.
But as adults I think there is a practical structural reason why shorter
players are less vulnerable. The stress put on joints increases with the length
of limbs. And more importantly short players have a better ratio of thickness
and strength of connective tissue, to this stress on joints.
Anyhow, I base none of this on accidental observations of those short players
that have made it to the NHL. And I have no data to support these theories.
That's why I would really like it, for someone to do a proper study of this.
If he's healing long-term from injury,he might consider Izkharov's procedure. Basically they snap your tibia bones and keep them apart in a clamp until bone matter grows into the gap. When it's all healed about 6 months later, you are taller, amount depending on the size of the gap you left. He can actually grow an inch or two or three. Maybe he can be our next Tinordi if he does it enough.
If he's healing long-term from injury,he might consider Izkharov's procedure. Basically they snap your tibia bones and keep them apart in a clamp until bone matter grows into the gap. When it's all healed about 6 months later, you are taller, amount depending on the size of the gap you left. He can actually grow an inch or two or three. Maybe he can be our next Tinordi if he does it enough.
Don't know where you heard about this. I've only performed this procedure
17 times. And I've always been extremely careful not to let word leak out. In
some jurisdictions it's not even approved by the medical association. Although
I'm reasonably satisfied with the results. That is not, of course, to say that
my patients are satisfied. But patients can have very high expectations.
The big thing that surprises me about Gallagher is that his passing skills were/are severely underrated. I thought we were getting a shoot- first Gionta clone with a lot more toughness.
But, he reads offensive plays really really well, and has soft hands for passing. He has a wicked release too.
The kid's a player. I'm worried a bit about his ability to stay healthy with his playing style but I think he can work it out.
It's been a long time since I've been so excited about two prospects like the 2 Gallys. The skill and talent just oozes out of those two.
