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Wii U: Nintendo's Next Generation Console Part 2

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Old
02-19-2013, 05:19 PM
  #151
LickTheEnvelope
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jill Sandwich View Post
Neely listed the amount of game releases as being a relevant factor regarding the success of a consoles, rather than the sales numbers of those specific SKUs. You concluded "high price/no games = poor sales". Both of these are somewhat irrelevant. Demand for product generates sales, not the availability of supply of product.

Price, and amount of games produced were not important, it was the desire for specific games that won generations. Even the data shown proves that hardware price is less relevant, being that Sony was more expensive than Nintendo and won the 5th and 6th gen.

Regarding WiiU, it will not matter if the WiiU gets a ton of games in quantity, it will only matter if it gets highly demanded games.


To go into more detail, there's a reason why the 7th generation is described as being a little closer than any of the previous three ... because despite it's the first time the software sales have been even comparable.

4th Gen:
SNES - 379m
Mega Drive - 175m

5th Gen:
PS1 - 962m
N64 - 225m
Saturn - 47m

6th Gen:
PS2 - 1,638m
Xbox - 271m
Gamecube - 208m
DC - 64m

7th Gen:
Wii - 842m
360 - 747m
PS3 - 649m

This is the first time a generation has even been close, and it's in the realm of possibility that the 360 limps ahead in its autumn years.
I don't completely disagree other than the high demand games need to be exclusive games.

That was my point a couple of pages ago regarding the overlap with the 360/PS3 and the Wii U 3rd party sales when it has been noted that the ports of various 3rd party games that came out previous for the 360 and PS3 that had been ported as Wii U launch titles had lower sales than expected.

If I already have a 360 or a PS3 and the biggest game launches this year are 360/PS3/Wii U cross-platforms where is the system sellers for the Wii U? This is not to say that there wont be some system sellers, there very well maybe but will there be any 3rd party that lure in other 3rd party devs?

As someone who was very interested in a Wii U until the specs/launch line-up I did what many industry people have suggested is the general issue with the Wii U... I thought:

1. "That's more expensive than the PS3 and 360 for similar hardware..."

2. "Alot of the launch games I already own..."

3. "The hardware isn't really next gen... and the next Playstation and Xbox will be out soon"

Hey the Wii U could crush it... but again I see the competition for that console as the PS3 and the 360.

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Old
02-19-2013, 06:18 PM
  #152
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I really think Nintendo needed a big Mario, Mario Kart, Super Smash, or Zelda title out for launch window. Not having that is what is killing them. Don't forget that Gamecube sales were middle of the road until Melee came out and skyrocketed that system into "must own". Don't think Pikmin will have that effect, but one can hope.

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02-19-2013, 06:55 PM
  #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Orpheus View Post
I really think Nintendo needed a big Mario, Mario Kart, Super Smash, or Zelda title out for launch window. Not having that is what is killing them. Don't forget that Gamecube sales were middle of the road until Melee came out and skyrocketed that system into "must own". Don't think Pikmin will have that effect, but one can hope.
There was a Mario game. And Gamecube never became "must own" according to sales, it was beaten handily.

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02-19-2013, 07:10 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by KesselForSelke View Post
There was a Mario game. And Gamecube never became "must own" according to sales, it was beaten handily.
The Gamecube sold a lot for the time, it made a profit and met Nintendo's sales goals. I'm not comparing it to the PS2 or PS1 because Sony was in their own stratosphere at the time, I am comparing it to the N64 and SNES. It's like comparing FFXI to WoW, both still were profitable and made an insane amount of money. The biggest selling game on the gamecube (and hence, one of the games that made it "must own" for those that wanted one) was Smash Brothers.

Also, I meant an actual 3d Mario game. New Super Mario Brothers really doesn't count and not even Nintendo was expecting it to sell well, instead projecting it to sell a lot over time. It's also using the New Super Mario Brothers brand just a few months after another game using that moniker came out. If it launched with say, Mario Galaxy 3 (I'd hope not because I think Nintendo tends to be quite innovative with main Mario games) people would be way more interested.

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02-19-2013, 07:38 PM
  #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Orpheus View Post
The Gamecube sold a lot for the time, it made a profit and met Nintendo's sales goals. I'm not comparing it to the PS2 or PS1 because Sony was in their own stratosphere at the time, I am comparing it to the N64 and SNES. It's like comparing FFXI to WoW, both still were profitable and made an insane amount of money. The biggest selling game on the gamecube (and hence, one of the games that made it "must own" for those that wanted one) was Smash Brothers.

Also, I meant an actual 3d Mario game. New Super Mario Brothers really doesn't count and not even Nintendo was expecting it to sell well, instead projecting it to sell a lot over time. It's also using the New Super Mario Brothers brand just a few months after another game using that moniker came out. If it launched with say, Mario Galaxy 3 (I'd hope not because I think Nintendo tends to be quite innovative with main Mario games) people would be way more interested.
Well unfortunately Sakurai has been busy with Kid Icarus and I don't think development on a new Super Smash game began until a year or so ago. And I don't think you understand how much of a sales behemoth that the new Super Mario bros series has been compared to 3D mario games. I think New Super Mario Bros on Wii outsold Mario Galaxy 3 to 1.

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02-19-2013, 07:53 PM
  #156
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jill Sandwich View Post
Neely listed the amount of game releases as being a relevant factor regarding the success of a consoles, rather than the sales numbers of those specific SKUs. You concluded "high price/no games = poor sales". Both of these are somewhat irrelevant. Demand for product generates sales, not the availability of supply of product.

Price, and amount of games produced were not important, it was the desire for specific games that won generations. Even the data shown proves that hardware price is less relevant, being that Sony was more expensive than Nintendo and won the 5th and 6th gen.

Regarding WiiU, it will not matter if the WiiU gets a ton of games in quantity, it will only matter if it gets highly demanded games.


To go into more detail, there's a reason why the 7th generation is described as being a little closer than any of the previous three ... because despite it's the first time the software sales have been even comparable.

4th Gen:
SNES - 379m
Mega Drive - 175m

5th Gen:
PS1 - 962m
N64 - 225m
Saturn - 47m

6th Gen:
PS2 - 1,638m
Xbox - 271m
Gamecube - 208m
DC - 64m

7th Gen:
Wii - 842m
360 - 747m
PS3 - 649m

This is the first time a generation has even been close, and it's in the realm of possibility that the 360 limps ahead in its autumn years.
No I didn't.

I was only comparing system sales to system power.

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02-19-2013, 08:00 PM
  #157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KesselForSelke View Post
Well unfortunately Sakurai has been busy with Kid Icarus and I don't think development on a new Super Smash game began until a year or so ago. And I don't think you understand how much of a sales behemoth that the new Super Mario bros series has been compared to 3D mario games. I think New Super Mario Bros on Wii outsold Mario Galaxy 3 to 1.
While I understand that, this is the fith? sixth? game in the New Super Mario brand, and one shortly came out not that long ago compared to the Wii U version. I have a feeling the brand is wearing a little thin. And I really loved the Wii version because it was a return to Super Mario World/Mario 3.

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02-19-2013, 08:18 PM
  #158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neely2005 View Post
No I didn't.

I was only comparing system sales to system power.
Ah yes, that was an addendum to your initial comment by LickTheEnvelope, apologies.

Quote:
I don't completely disagree other than the high demand games need to be exclusive games.
Absolutely, that's how it was. Playstation didn't win because of anything other than it had Resident Evil, and Final Fantasy, and Tomb Raider, and Gran Turismo, and nothing else did. Nowadays I would argue that service features probably rank about as highly as a big exclusive, I think people might give up a Halo/Uncharted/Mario in order to get whatever online ecosystem they believe will supply their needs best.

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02-19-2013, 08:20 PM
  #159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jill Sandwich View Post
Ah yes, that was an addendum to your initial comment by LickTheEnvelope, apologies.


Absolutely, that's how it was. Playstation didn't win because of anything other than it had Resident Evil, and Final Fantasy, and Tomb Raider, and Gran Turismo, and nothing else did. Nowadays I would argue that service features probably rank about as highly as a big exclusive, I think people might give up a Halo/Uncharted/Mario in order to get whatever online ecosystem they believe will supply their needs best.
Absolutely, I would agree.

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Old
02-20-2013, 02:30 AM
  #160
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Top 20 Selling Wii Games up to Dec 2012

Wii Sports
Mario Kart Wii
Wii Sports Resort
Wii Play
New Super Mario Bros. Wii
Wii Fit
Wii Fit Plus
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Super Mario Galaxy
Wii Party
Mario Party 8
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games
Super Mario Galaxy 2
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Just Dance 2
Donkey Kong Country Returns
Link's Crossbow Training
Just Dance
The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword
Animal Crossing: City Folk

So basically 3 3rd party games in the top 20 (non in top 10), one has Mario in it and the other two are the same franchise

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02-20-2013, 02:35 AM
  #161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Orpheus View Post
While I understand that, this is the fith? sixth? game in the New Super Mario brand, and one shortly came out not that long ago compared to the Wii U version. I have a feeling the brand is wearing a little thin. And I really loved the Wii version because it was a return to Super Mario World/Mario 3.
New Super Mario Bros 2006 NDS
New Super Mario Bros 2009 Wii
New Super Marios Bros 2 2012 3DS
New Super Mario Bros U 2012 WiiU

vs

Super Mario 64 1996 N64
Super Mario Sunshine 2002 GC
Super Mario Galaxy 2008 Wii
Super Mario Galaxy 2 2010 Wii

I think it was overkill to do both "new super mario" games last year, despite on different platforms, hence the feeling of staleness

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02-20-2013, 08:57 AM
  #162
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Originally Posted by top_gun36 View Post
New Super Mario Bros 2006 NDS
New Super Mario Bros 2009 Wii
New Super Marios Bros 2 2012 3DS
New Super Mario Bros U 2012 WiiU

vs

Super Mario 64 1996 N64
Super Mario Sunshine 2002 GC
Super Mario Galaxy 2008 Wii
Super Mario Galaxy 2 2010 Wii

I think it was overkill to do both "new super mario" games last year, despite on different platforms, hence the feeling of staleness
Yea, that might be it. 5 Mario games in 5 years not counting things like paper Mario and Mario and luigi and all those other spinoffs is a bit insane.

But still, even with 4 games in the series, at some point it stops becoming "New" and just becomes a wee bit stale.

I actually like the big gap in 3d Mario games, makes me excited for them when they come out.

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02-20-2013, 10:20 AM
  #163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by top_gun36 View Post
Top 20 Selling Wii Games up to Dec 2012

Wii Sports
Mario Kart Wii
Wii Sports Resort
Wii Play
New Super Mario Bros. Wii
Wii Fit
Wii Fit Plus
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Super Mario Galaxy
Wii Party
Mario Party 8
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games
Super Mario Galaxy 2
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Just Dance 2
Donkey Kong Country Returns
Link's Crossbow Training
Just Dance
The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword
Animal Crossing: City Folk

So basically 3 3rd party games in the top 20 (non in top 10), one has Mario in it and the other two are the same franchise
Want to hold selling games in the same franchise against a system?

PS3
  1. COD: MW3
  2. COD BO
  3. COD MW2
  4. GTA IV
  5. COD BO2
  6. GT 5
  7. Fifa 12
  8. COD 4
  9. Battlefield 3
  10. Uncharted 2
  11. Fifa 13
  12. MGS4
  13. Uncharted 3
  14. AC2
  15. Red Dead Redemption
  16. littbigplanet
  17. COD WaW
  18. FF XIII
  19. Fifa 11
  20. RE5


360
  1. Kinect Adventure
  2. CoD:MW3
  3. CoD: BO
  4. COD: MW2
  5. Halo 3
  6. CoD: BO2
  7. GTA IV
  8. Halo Reach
  9. COD 4
  10. Halo 4
  11. Skyrim
  12. COD WaW
  13. Battlefield 3
  14. GoW2
  15. Halo 3 ODST
  16. GoW
  17. GOW3
  18. Kinect Sports
  19. Red Dead Redemption
  20. Forza 3

Looking at the top20 for each system, and the idea that Sony & MS gave gobs of support to 3rd parties looks a bit hollow unless the game was Call of Duty. And a handful of series seem to dominate these lists just as much as they dominate Nintendo's.

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02-20-2013, 11:01 AM
  #164
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Miiverse is a great idea, and I think it has tons of potential as a social platform for games and gaming series communities. And the things people can draw are just incredible.

With that being said, you can really see the average age of a good portion of the community by their posts. I really wish there was a way to separate the discussions between different age groups. Miiverse is quickly turning into a never ending cycle of 10 year old kids posting things such as "yeah if you love zelda!!" and "if you own a wii u, yeah this post!" or my personal favorite "if I get 100 yeahs, I'll do a song!!"

Of course, I understand it is Nintendo, and a good chunk of the market are kids. But it would still be nice if Nintendo did something for this. Maybe create a community for the more mature gamers?

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02-20-2013, 11:02 AM
  #165
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
Want to hold selling games in the same franchise against a system?

PS3
  1. COD: MW3
  2. COD BO
  3. COD MW2
  4. GTA IV
  5. COD BO2
  6. GT 5
  7. Fifa 12
  8. COD 4
  9. Battlefield 3
  10. Uncharted 2
  11. Fifa 13
  12. MGS4
  13. Uncharted 3
  14. AC2
  15. Red Dead Redemption
  16. littbigplanet
  17. COD WaW
  18. FF XIII
  19. Fifa 11
  20. RE5


360
  1. Kinect Adventure
  2. CoD:MW3
  3. CoD: BO
  4. COD: MW2
  5. Halo 3
  6. CoD: BO2
  7. GTA IV
  8. Halo Reach
  9. COD 4
  10. Halo 4
  11. Skyrim
  12. COD WaW
  13. Battlefield 3
  14. GoW2
  15. Halo 3 ODST
  16. GoW
  17. GOW3
  18. Kinect Sports
  19. Red Dead Redemption
  20. Forza 3

Looking at the top20 for each system, and the idea that Sony & MS gave gobs of support to 3rd parties looks a bit hollow unless the game was Call of Duty. And a handful of series seem to dominate these lists just as much as they dominate Nintendo's.
Interesting. So it looks like this is a common occurrence for all 3 of the main consoles & Not just Nintendo.

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02-20-2013, 11:55 AM
  #166
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Originally Posted by Neely2005 View Post
Interesting. So it looks like this is a common occurrence for all 3 of the main consoles & Not just Nintendo.
The main difference between Nintendo consoles and other consoles tends to be the ratio between third party game sales and first party (not their actual rankings)

Sony and Microsoft have bigger third party sales (or closer to even depending on what you consider first party) while Nintendo skews the other way, massive amounts of first party but much lower third party. That is generally what people refer to when talking about Nintendo's third party struggles.

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02-20-2013, 12:34 PM
  #167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Orpheus View Post
The main difference between Nintendo consoles and other consoles tends to be the ratio between third party game sales and first party (not their actual rankings)

Sony and Microsoft have bigger third party sales (or closer to even depending on what you consider first party) while Nintendo skews the other way, massive amounts of first party but much lower third party. That is generally what people refer to when talking about Nintendo's third party struggles.
How are you defining your ratio, though? If you're going strictly by sales numbers, five or six Call of Duty games on each system would appear to have a massive effect on those ratios. At that point, I'm not sure it's fair to say third party games sell way worse on Nintendo, as it is to say Call of Duty sells way worse on Nintendo.

This isn't to say Nintendo would somehow miraculously overtake Sony and MS in third party sales - I don't see any way they could do that - but I don't think they would look nearly as bad.

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02-20-2013, 12:39 PM
  #168
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Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
How are you defining your ratio, though? If you're going strictly by sales numbers, five or six Call of Duty games on each system would appear to have a massive effect on those ratios. At that point, I'm not sure it's fair to say third party games sell way worse on Nintendo, as it is to say Call of Duty sells way worse on Nintendo.

This isn't to say Nintendo would somehow miraculously overtake Sony and MS in third party sales - I don't see any way they could do that - but I don't think they would look nearly as bad.
Even if you were to remove Call of Duty for Sony and Microsoft, which definitely skews the ratio, it would still be skewed for third party. You may even be able to take out Grand Theft Auto as well and still keep it that skewed. You may need to take out first party shovelware like Kinect Adventures and Wii Sports though as well.

When comparing different systems, its almost always better to look at the attach rate as a point of comparison rather than just amount sold. (Attach rate for those that dont know is % of people that own that game on the console)

For instance, if you look at the amount of games sold per current gen console, rather than just the order, the three systems shake out like this:

Sony:
1) Modern Warfare 3 - 12 million
2) Black Ops - 11.39 million
3) Modern Warfare 2 - 9.95 million
4) GT5 - 9.19 million
5) GTA4 - 9.18 million

Microsoft:
1) Kinect Adventures - 24 million
2) Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 -14.23 million
3) Call of Duty: Black Ops - 13.39 million
4) Modern Warfare 2: 12.81 million
5) Halo 3: 11.54 million

Nintendo:
1) Wii Sports - 81.64 million
2) Mario Kart Wii - 34 million
3) Wii Sports Resort - 31.54 million
4) Wii Play - 28 million
5) New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 27.61 million

Highest selling third party title (Mario and Sonic Olympics is a 2nd party title, even if the developer is third party) - Just Dance 2 with 5 million.

The problem with Nintendo and third parties is that only Nintendo can achieve massive sales numbers on their consoles, while Sony and Microsoft have a healthy mix of third party at the top. You want third parties to outsell your first parties, because it shows them that you can invest and make a great title for the console and it'll sell. While the Wii does have some third parties breaking 5 million units sold, it's a lot more rare and more like an anomaly. I mean, it's no mystery why Ubisoft is sticking by Nintendo for the Wii U, as they were the most profitable company aside from Nintendo on the Wii. Everyone else didn't do so well though. This creates the stigma that only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo consoles, even if 5 million if a financial success on the Wii, it's not even in the same stratosphere as Mario Kart.

And here ties in what I said about attach rates:
Third party sales vs. number of consoles in the market:
(For Sony and MS I will use MW3 and for Nintendo I will use Just Dance 2, their biggest selling third party title)
Sony: 17% of Ps3 owners own MW3
Microsoft: 18.7% of 360 owners own MW3
Nintendo: 5% of owners own Just Dance 2

Oh! and if you want to use non- Call of Duty and non- GTA for the ratio for Sony and MS:
Microsoft: Battlefield 3 - 8%
Sony: Fifa - 8.5%
Still higher than Nintendo, but harder to say if it's statistically significant or not. And again, these are middle of the pack sellers in the top 10, whereas Just Dance 2 is barely in the top 15.

Third party attach rates are much stronger on non-Nintendo consoles, and it's been this way since the N64. Is it Nintendo's fault? I don't feel that way, it's just the way the market is, because they do produce third party games, quite a bit of them. It just seems like the people that buy a Nintendo console generally stick with only Nintendo games and couldn't give a crap about third party. A lot of it has to do with perception, but until Nintendo has a game on the Wii or Wii U that is third party and is a massive hit, this stigma will keep perpetuating.


Last edited by Orpheus: 02-20-2013 at 01:10 PM.
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02-20-2013, 01:14 PM
  #169
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Don't understand...

Quick count I see 7 different publishers represented in the to 20 360 games, 11 in the PS3 sales... 4 in the Wii sales...

Maybe i'm missing something there?

Yes there's killer franchises but the variety is completely different than the Wii with 6 mario games and 9 Wii-Mote action games in the top 20...

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02-20-2013, 01:26 PM
  #170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LickTheEnvelope View Post
Don't understand...

Quick count I see 7 different publishers represented in the to 20 360 games, 11 in the PS3 sales... 4 in the Wii sales...

Maybe i'm missing something there?

Yes there's killer franchises but the variety is completely different than the Wii with 6 mario games and 9 Wii-Mote action games in the top 20...
You aren't missing anything, that is the correct conclusion. All I'm doing is pointing out that it's the amount of sales that Nintendo achieves on their consoles that third parties see, third parties then attempt to achieve and then third parties get angry (or stop making games) when they do not reach. Top 20 is kind of arbitrary, even if you were to expand it to a top 50, Nintendo would largely be dominant on the Wii, while I think Sony and Microsoft (just by a glance, math may be off) will have almost all of the big publishers in the top 50, and possibly even some lesser ones.

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02-20-2013, 03:48 PM
  #171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
Looking at the top20 for each system, and the idea that Sony & MS gave gobs of support to 3rd parties looks a bit hollow unless the game was Call of Duty. And a handful of series seem to dominate these lists just as much as they dominate Nintendo's.
You're comparing 7 Call of Duty/Activision games to 17 Nintendo games. This doesn't even answer the obvious sales discrepency between third parties on Nintendo platforms and third parties on other consoles, within the top 20 and outside of it. The top 20 really isn't important anyway, what's important are the core numbers and they've been pretty rough for third parties for a while now. I will add, you can't form a genuine argument around the propensity of third party sales on other platforms, and then exclude the largest third party franchise from the discussion. It would be like if we're discussing who has the most first party sales and then say that Mario games shouldn't count.

And I don't think anyone would argue that MS or Sony 'supported' third parties, merely that their platforms were the ones that gave a superior, reliable return. And have for a while now.

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02-21-2013, 10:51 AM
  #172
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Originally Posted by Sh0otnSc0re View Post
Continue here.
For anyone who's looking for Part 1:

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=922671

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02-26-2013, 10:11 AM
  #173
Neely2005
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Wii U GamePad perfect fit for Watch Dogs, says senior producer

Wii U GamePad perfect fit for Watch Dogs, says senior producer
Core features will feel natural on the GamePad

http://www.computerandvideogames.com...nior-producer/

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03-02-2013, 03:14 PM
  #174
Orpheus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gamesbeat
GamesBeat: Is the Wii U from Nintendo even on your radar as far as making games?

Yerli: We did have Crysis 3 running on the Wii U. We were very close to launching it. But there was a lack of business support between Nintendo and EA on that. Since we as a company couldn’t launch on the Wii U ourselves — we don’t have a publishing license — Crysis 3 on Wii U had to die.
Read more at http://venturebeat.com/2013/03/01/cr...odgBSTFpLRR.99
Wonder what on earth is going on between EA and Nintendo. Guessing it has to do with Origin.

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03-12-2013, 02:03 PM
  #175
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the street view thing is incredible. It's just a gorgeous experience, and it's something that I think could sell the console/experience if they pushed it. Being able to hold the tablet up, turn, and look "around" you is amazing, especially if you do it with a place you are familiar with (I used my hometown to start). I think it's an insanely bad move to start charging anything for it, though.

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