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Winnipeg Jets 2013 Lineup and Statistical Analysis (See Post 1 for reference)

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Old
02-20-2013, 02:43 PM
  #101
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Some missed shot numbers for the Jets (this year and last) and the rest of the league.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/...issing-the-net

If somebody wants to HF the table feel free, but I suck at HF tables.

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02-20-2013, 02:52 PM
  #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Some missed shot numbers for the Jets (this year and last) and the rest of the league.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/...issing-the-net

If somebody wants to HF the table feel free, but I suck at HF tables.


RankTeamShotsMsSFenwick% of Shots Missed
01 WINNIPEG 423 220 643 34.2%
02 DALLAS 424 193 617 31.3%
03 NASHVILLE 405 180 585 30.8%
04 LOS ANGELES 419 181 600 30.2%
05 TORONTO 473 202 675 29.9%
06 DETROIT 467 199 666 29.9%
07 OTTAWA 553 226 779 29.0%
08 SAN JOSE 446 182 628 29.0%
09 VANCOUVER 434 177 611 29.0%
10 MONTREAL 461 185 646 28.6%
11 PHOENIX 499 199 698 28.5%
12 NEW JERSEY 424 168 592 28.4%
13 PHILADELPHIA 474 186 660 28.2%
14 ANAHEIM 404 156 560 27.9%
15 CALGARY 426 164 590 27.8%
16 LEAGUE AVERAGE 5011 18039.5 27.8%
17 BOSTON 419 160 579 27.7%
18 WASHINGTON 431 164 595 27.6%
19 PITTSBURGH 483 183 666 27.5%
20 ST LOUIS 461 172 633 27.2%
21 NY ISLANDERS 483 177 660 26.8%
22 TAMPA BAY 404 146 550 26.6%
23 EDMONTON 431 154 585 26.3%
24 MINNESOTA 398 142 540 26.3%
25 NY RANGERS 450 158 608 26.0%
26 COLUMBUS 430 151 581 26.0%
27 CAROLINA 473 166 639 26.0%
28 COLORADO 428 142 570 24.9%
29 BUFFALO 508 168 676 24.8%
30 FLORIDA 431 137 568 24.1%
31 CHICAGO 490 154 644 23.9%

Here ya go truck... feel free to quote it if you want to get your barring about these tables.
For anyone who wants I'd suggest to check out the article for more info.


Last edited by garret9: 02-21-2013 at 02:39 AM. Reason: fixed the calc error that Truck fixed on the article
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02-20-2013, 03:06 PM
  #103
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So is the fact the Hawks are missing 10% of shots and we are missing 25% just crazy bad luck or is that just what happens when you actually have a few snipers in your top six?

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02-20-2013, 03:20 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bhay1987 View Post
So is the fact the Hawks are missing 10% of shots and we are missing 25% just crazy bad luck or is that just what happens when you actually have a few snipers in your top six?
Perhaps a bit of both.

I included the team totals from last year too. I do suspect the Jets numbers will improve. I also expects the Hawks will have a set back.

The Jets didn't do well by this measure last year either, but they weren't near this bad.


EDIT

I had a calc error on that table. It is fixed and up now at AIH


Last edited by truck: 02-20-2013 at 05:58 PM.
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02-21-2013, 03:20 AM
  #105
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Gvt

GVT is goals versus threshold. I'm not a huge fan of it since it tries to encompass everything, and I don't think stats can every cover everything in hockey, only add colour and shades to the picture.
I also don't like the fact that it's very much a "what have you done for me lately" stat.
It also doesn't take in account difficulty of job. Ex: Kane scored more goals per minute than Ladd last season, but Ladd also faced top6 minutes more as he was also given the job of shutdown.
Another problem with it is that above average goalies always end up on the top of the list, and lower goalies always end up on the very bottom of the list... I know goaltending is important (as we've seen as a team) but I'm wary that it may be over exaggerated in the algorithm.
And finally, the last problem I have with it is the offensive numbers can be really skewed by puck-luck and guys with crazy/not-normal shooting percentages.

There are some nice things about it, in how it's predominately based on scoring more than your opponent, which is the basics to winning.

Goals Versus Threshold is the value of a player in outscoring the opponent above a regular league replacement player would contribute. For baseball fans (which I am not) it is similar to the stat VORP.

It's a large algorithm split into offense (using games played, TOI, goals and assists), defense (mostly in preventing shots on goal), goaltending (sv%) and shoutout (as winning a shootout counts in the standings).

RankNAMEOGVTDGVTSGVTGVT
47 Ladd 2.8 1.8 0.0 4.5
59 Enstrom 3.1 1.2 0.0 4.3
117 Byfuglien 1.8 1.5 0.0 3.2
129 Wheeler 1.3 1.1 0.6 3.1
196 Kane 1.0 1.4 0.0 2.4
270 Little 0.3 1.8 0.0 1.7
271 Postma 0.9 0.8 0.0 1.7
346 Hainsey 0.1 1.2 0.0 1.3
360 Redmond 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.2
409 Ponikarovsky -0.0 0.9 0.0 0.9
445 Stuart -0.2 0.9 0.0 0.7
452 Antropov -0.0 0.7 0.0 0.6
461 Burmistrov -0.4 1.0 0.0 0.6
464 Clitsome 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6
468 Slater -0.0 0.6 0.0 0.6
494 Wellwood -0.4 0.8 0.0 0.4
528 Thorburn -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2
568 Bogosian -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1
588 Peluso -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
631 Tangradi -0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.1
710 Jokinen -1.1 1.0 -0.4 -0.5
711 Wright -0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.5
722 Scheifele -0.9 0.3 0.0 -0.6
741 Montoya -1.0 0.2 -0.0 -0.9
766 Pavelec -3.7 0.1 -0.8 -4.5
This was updated at the Jets' 13GP mark

Some random notes:
*Jokinen is penalized for the fact that Pavelec has had his biggest bloopers when Jokinen's been on the ice even though Jokinen has been better defensively than many as noted by his DGVT... IMO opinion he should change dramatically in a few games as that normalizes and he pots a few points
*Ladd does the best on the team due to unsustainable 24% sh%
*Ponikarovsky >> Tangradi
*Last season Wellwood was one of our highest in GVT, now he has tumbled down
*Bogosian only has one game sample size so you know he's going to go all over the place in the next few games
*Wright over Thorburn is very suspect to me, but I guess it's because Wright doesn't have any points
*Last two games for Pavelec were pretty good so my guess is he passes Montoya into ~730ish spot
*Peluso gets a zero because he has yet to actually play when you really really think about it
*Half of Burmistrov's points aren't involved in this table, as they don't have the last two games

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02-21-2013, 11:33 AM
  #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Some missed shot numbers for the Jets (this year and last) and the rest of the league.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/...issing-the-net

If somebody wants to HF the table feel free, but I suck at HF tables.
Troy Westwood was plugging AIH on "The Big Show" this morning by referencing this article. He used these numbers and said something like "on Arctic Ice Hockey" they have crunched the numbers on missed shots.

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02-21-2013, 05:15 PM
  #107
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More missed shots math:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/...ayer-breakdown

This one breaks it down player by player. Zachy Goj needs to hit the net!!

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02-22-2013, 09:56 PM
  #108
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Talking to our comptroller Today at work and he has a buddy who is an accountant that was hired by the NHL to do stats at the MTS centre. they have 22 people hired to do the job and 17 work on any given game day. I think my friends buddy is responsible to track TOI stats. He was sent to New York for training.

Also he has another friend (in the accounting world) who was hired by the Jets to do stats. Apparently they have 3 or 4 guys doing it and they take the stats to the coaching staff between periods.

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03-11-2013, 09:16 PM
  #109
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Why SV% matters:

Jets' when at or above a 0.900 goaltending (league average goaltending is around 0.914)
10-1-2
1 loss against PIT
2 OTL are both in SO (BOS and NJD)

Jets' when below a 0.900 goaltending (again remember league average is around 0.914)
2-10-0
2 wins are in OT (FLA and NYI)

So you can see the Jets' need consistent goaltending. They do not have elite firepower to overcome it.
The Jets only have one loss in regulation when above 0.9 and have not won in regulation without it.



Last edited by garret9: 03-11-2013 at 09:23 PM.
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03-11-2013, 09:41 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Why SV% matters:

Jets' when at or above a 0.900 goaltending (league average goaltending is around 0.914)
10-1-2
1 loss against PIT
2 OTL are both in SO (BOS and NJD)

Jets' when below a 0.900 goaltending (again remember league average is around 0.914)
2-10-0
2 wins are in OT (FLA and NYI)

So you can see the Jets' need consistent goaltending. They do not have elite firepower to overcome it.
The Jets only have one loss in regulation when above 0.9 and have not won in regulation without it.

Awesome stat grab.

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03-11-2013, 10:38 PM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Troy Westwood was plugging AIH on "The Big Show" this morning by referencing this article. He used these numbers and said something like "on Arctic Ice Hockey" they have crunched the numbers on missed shots.
Troy has referenced AIH several times , he did for Pavalec last week as well.

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03-14-2013, 11:00 AM
  #112
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hey garret, personal request.

can we get clitsome's WOWY numbers this season with Buff? Or if you've done them can you tell me where?

I'm starting to question my eye's dislike of Clitsome....

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03-14-2013, 11:10 AM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind View Post
hey garret, personal request.

can we get clitsome's WOWY numbers this season with Buff? Or if you've done them can you tell me where?

I'm starting to question my eye's dislike of Clitsome....
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...012-13&sit=5v5

They look really good both with Buff and without, but Quality of Competition was really really light pre Buff.

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03-14-2013, 11:15 AM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...012-13&sit=5v5

They look really good both with Buff and without, but Quality of Competition was really really light pre Buff.
yah i was thinking i was starting suffer buff/hainsey syndrom

ie: he makes one big mistake a game so it stands out, but is quietly successfunn 9/10 shifts.

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03-14-2013, 03:19 PM
  #115
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Holly **** look at the GF% of Clitsome with Jokinen...
That is too terrible to be telling of anything hahah but wow!

GF/20: 0.193
GA/20: 1.351
GF%: 12.5

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03-14-2013, 05:12 PM
  #116
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I already placed this elsewhere, but I thought it was good to place here.


The whole concept of the statistics I use are:
* To win a game you have to out-score the opponent
* Scoring increases and decreases due to number of chances for each side and the quality of chances for each side
* Some variables are more repeatable and controllable than others, and some variables have been shown to have more correlation to winning than others.
* Luckily for hockey analysis, the stat that is the strongest in correlating with winning, and most repeatable, and is one of the more accurately counted stats is shooting differentials.
* You can split differentials from simplest (+/- being goals, SF/SA being shots) to more complex (Fenwick being goals, shots on goal, missed shots, all per 60 minutes of play and Corsi adding in blocked shots)


Here's an example of how strong the correlation is:
Quote:
I took shots for and subtracted shots against — coming up with the overall shot differential for each time in each season for the last 5 years. I then used that as the explanatory variable in a regression against standings points. What were the results?



In short, the results are unequivocal: there is an incredibly strong relationship between shot differential and standings points. I’ve outlined the P-value of this regression in red. What does that even mean? Well, you remember that you need a P-value lower than 0.05 to assert statistical significance, right? The lower the number, the more confident you are in a statistical relationship. The P-value in red is 0.000000000000015. Or, I can say with 99.9999999999985% confidence that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between shot differential and standings points.
I forgot to site the source
http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/03/...ts-and-points/


When I use terms like luck or puck-luck, some posters get offended stating that there is only the luck that you make... Here's a good comment from nhlnumbers on the subject:
Quote:
People who object to the term "luck" as used here don't seem to understand what it means. The word comes with an unfortunate connotation of "not deserving" or "completely random". Outcomes in professional sports are weighted probabilities, not destinies, so it's entirely possible for the better team to lose on any given night or even over a brief sample of games, like a best of seven series, for no other reason beyond variance. There are also other influences beyond the control of the players, coaches and GM's of course: the officiating, injuries to key players, etc. Sports are interesting not only because of the action, competition and violence, but because they are a boiling cauldron of uncertainty. Sometimes the underdog wins. And sometimes it's not because of any particular failing of the favorite.
I agree with the denotation that it's not randomness in the outcomes but weighted probabilities.


Last edited by garret9: 03-15-2013 at 03:27 PM.
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03-15-2013, 12:37 PM
  #117
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Where has Olli gone?

I'm not making excuses for Olli. I'm not determining what the future will bring. All I'm doing is comparing what's different for Olli this season from the last 3.


Even Strength
YEARGP5v5 TOI/605v5 G/605v5 A1/605v5 P/60ESGESA
2009 8214.31 0.510.611.69 1223
2010 7913.90 0.660.551.75 1223
2011 8214.63 0.650.751.80 1423
2012 2714.34 0.500.000.50 0502
Keep in mind 5v5 is different that Even Strength (example Olli has two even strength assists from 4v4 work but no 5v5 assists)

PowerPlay
YEARGP5v4 TOI/605v4 G/605v4 A1/605v4 P/60PPGPPA
2009 82 2.64 0.83 1.11 3.33 0312
2010 79 2.95 1.29 2.06 5.15 0514
2011 82 3.02 2.18 2.43 5.82 0915
2012 27 2.33 0.00 1.03 1.03 0001

Not hard to see where Olli's offense has disappeared from.
No 5v5 assists (primary or secondary)
No 5v4 goals or secondary assists
Also, oddly less PP TOI per game than normal - probably from the lack of PP opportunities the Jets have seen

His 5v5 goal scoring and 5v4 primary assists are not that far off from what we should expect with previous numbers.

His powerplay is probably a combination of him and the Jets, as pretty much none of the Jets are being "successful" on the powerplay. His lack of 5v5 assists is surprising as you'd think being on a line with Kane would give him some, but I'm sure his time with Wright, Peluso and Tangradi weren't too much help there.

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03-15-2013, 03:02 PM
  #118
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Where do our players fit offensively

In the Burmistrov thread we were discussing about secondary scoring and what type of point production should you expect.

This is not looking at expected progress, under-performing or over-performing; this is strictly where they are sitting relative to the rest of the NHL.

The method is easy and simple. I just cut out all players with less than 5 games played and divide the NHL's overall production into lines A->B, B->C, C->D, D->F. You fit between A->B than you're producing at a first line level.

Now this may be a bit overly simplistic as some players fit into certain roles. Raffi Torres scores a lot of points relative to his time on ice, but isn't really considered a top6 guy. Some guys play on higher lines because they compliment well or open the ice for other players. So, as always take with some grain of salt.


NameP/60LinePercentile
Ladd 3.08 1 0.15
Wheeler 2.44 1 0.48
Kane 2.19 1 0.76
Little 1.91 2 0.16
Antropov 1.23 3 0.43
Burmistrov1.20 3 0.54
Miettinen 1.17 3 0.62
Wellwood 0.82 4 0.18
Slater 0.56 4 0.48
Jokinen 0.50 4 0.56
Thorburn 0.48 4 0.58
Tangradi 0.38 4 0.66
Wright 0.28 4 0.74
The percentile is what percentile within that line designate do they fit in.
Looks like my estimations in the Burmistrov thread were a bit generous.
No one is perfect.

EDIT:
I have just come to realize that this is as of Jets' 25th game. So the data is a bit old/behind.


Last edited by garret9: 03-15-2013 at 03:13 PM.
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03-15-2013, 03:22 PM
  #119
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I like the stats you put together ( where do you find the time ? )

The one stat I wish the NHL would adopt is ranking the PP and PK by goals per minute instead of goals per opportunity. This to me would be more reflective of true PP and PK performance so you don't have 10 second PPs counting as an opportunity.

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03-15-2013, 08:38 PM
  #120
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbcwpg View Post
I like the stats you put together ( where do you find the time ? )

The one stat I wish the NHL would adopt is ranking the PP and PK by goals per minute instead of goals per opportunity. This to me would be more reflective of true PP and PK performance so you don't have 10 second PPs counting as an opportunity.
Thanks
A lot of it I don't do the calculations for... Some of it I'll run through little things but nothing extreme that couldn't be done with excel or a stat program (like the one I use)

There is a place that does do PP and PK like that, behindthenet.ca:
Here's the Power Play
you can sort by GF/60 or SF/60
and here's the PK
The coding is from 2007 so sometimes we come up as ATL and sometimes WPG (even though the creator of the site is from Winnipeg)

EDIT:
Going to 4v4 team stats I just noticed Jets are 2nd to BOS in SF/60, 2nd to DET in SA/60, and 1st in +/-

2nd EDIT:
Just noticed that behindthenet's daily updates has been log jammed to 3:30 AM Mar 11 so my data is a bit old.
Also, thank you PS241! I don't want to unnecessarily bump this thread just to say thanks again haha


Last edited by garret9: 03-15-2013 at 09:09 PM.
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03-15-2013, 09:01 PM
  #121
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Hey garret I usually come by this thread and read it all but often don't comment because the work is excelllant and self explanitory. I really appreciate all the work though and I learn allot from this thread!

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03-18-2013, 03:05 PM
  #122
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updated the first post to have last games lineup and also put in some of the stats I commonly use

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03-20-2013, 02:39 AM
  #123
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Pavelec's recent play continues to be solid!

Maybe Goalie Guild was right and this season is Pavelec's year in becoming a legit above average performer!!

Jets' when at or above a 0.900 goaltending (league average goaltending is around 0.914)
13-2-2
2 losses in regulation (PIT and OTT)
2 OTL are both in SO (BOS and NJD)

Jets' when below a 0.900 goaltending (again remember league average is around 0.914)
3-10-0
2 wins are in OT (FLA and NYI)
1 win is in SO (TOR)

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03-23-2013, 07:47 PM
  #124
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Up<->down is offensive abilities measured in shot creation
Left<->right is defensive abilities measured in shot prevention
Size of the ball is sample size

Soooo... if you want to pull out anything from this...

Moral of story... so much for Clitsome-Byfuglien being a great pair together.... hahaha

Keep in mind that usage, such as quality of competition and % of offensive zone starts (mostly*) are not being considered.
*First 10 seconds of play is removed to diminish zone starts effects*


Here is last season to compare:

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03-24-2013, 07:55 AM
  #125
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looks awesome but stopped reading when i saw "corsi"

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