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With one third of the season done, which teams have over/under performed.

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Old
02-20-2013, 05:11 PM
  #1
WakeUpNHL
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With one third of the season done, which teams have over/under performed.

One third into the season, there have been some surprise team performances. On the upside we see teams like ANA, MTL, TOR, CHI, On the downside teams like WAS, PHI and LA.

Which teams do you see as overperforming and will come back to earth and which teams will shrug off their poor starts?

An interesting stat concerning team performance to date is PDO, which adds team save percentage to shooting percentage to give a value that normalizes around 1. Teams with PDO above 1, over a short period of time, are usually over performing and teams under 1 are under performing. As the period of time grows (ie a full season) the team PDO should be close to 1.

The PDO table as of Feb 20th is below:

TEAM GP SH% SV% PDO
ANA 14 12.9 932 1.061
CHI 15 10.7 934 1.041
TOR 15 10.1 938 1.039
T.B 14 12.0 911 1.031
VAN 14 8.7 938 1.025
CAR 13 8.5 939 1.024
NSH 15 7.6 943 1.019
MTL 14 8.8 931 1.019
N.J 15 8.9 928 1.017
NYR 14 8.7 925 1.012
PIT 16 8.5 925 1.010
DAL 16 8.7 921 1.008
OTT 15 6.4 940 1.004
DET 15 7.6 928 1.004
S.J 14 6.9 933 1.002
BUF 16 9.5 906 1.001
COL 13 7.8 919 0.997
MIN 15 7.2 921 0.993
BOS 13 8.3 903 0.986
PHX 15 7.8 905 0.983
CBJ 15 8.7 896 0.983
ATL 14 6.9 911 0.980
EDM 14 5.4 922 0.976
WSH 15 7.7 897 0.974
FLA 14 7.5 898 0.973
PHI 16 6.7 905 0.972
STL 15 8.0 891 0.971
NYI 14 8.8 881 0.969
CGY 13 8.0 886 0.966
L.A 13 6.5 895 0.960
Attached Images
File Type: jpg pdo2013-feb20.jpg‎ (95.1 KB, 38 views)


Last edited by WakeUpNHL: 02-20-2013 at 05:19 PM. Reason: copy pasted table
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Old
02-20-2013, 05:33 PM
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AMDZen
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Just a few quick thoughts

Overperforming:

ANA - not by as much as people think though, the team always had talent coming out of its nose, it was just poorly coached. The signs they would be really good this year were already there last year after Bruce came in and they started to play much better. Victor Fascth (sp?) has been a very good surprise for them though, with Hiller being even more inconsistent since coming back from his concussion issues.

CHI - Overperforming but not by much, I knew they would be good but not this good.

NJ - You lose Parise and you're a better team? WTF did Clarkson eat in the offseason?

Underperforming:

WAS - Obviously I expected some drop off but not this much

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02-20-2013, 05:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WakeUpNHL View Post
Teams with PDO above 1, over a short period of time, are usually over performing and teams under 1 are under performing. As the period of time grows (ie a full season) the team PDO should be close to 1.
Is there proof of this somewhere?

I could see shooting percentage (which is half of the stat above) normalizing to league average over time, but I don't see save percentage doing the same.

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02-20-2013, 05:37 PM
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As a Bruins fan I love them and expected them to do well. However they have over performed. With a league low PP and an offense that seems to struggle mightily to score goals somehow they are still one of the top teams in the east.

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02-20-2013, 05:42 PM
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WakeUpNHL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhatsABruin View Post
As a Bruins fan I love them and expected them to do well. However they have over performed. With a league low PP and an offense that seems to struggle mightily to score goals somehow they are still one of the top teams in the east.
The scary part is that at a PDO of 0.986 says the Bruins are slightly under performing and should play a little better moving forward. I think this just reinforces how good a team game the Bruins play.

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02-20-2013, 05:46 PM
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The Leafs PDO of 1.039 would suggest that the team has over performed to date and is due for a big letdown. Would be interesting to revisit this in 6 weeks from now and see where the Leafs are at.

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02-20-2013, 05:51 PM
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Honestly, this list is very interesting to look at. I would completely agree that certain teams are underperforming/over-performing based on this list but it by no means a tell-all. As a Ducks fan I know the team is over-performing but like a previous poster said, I dont think its that much more than the Blackhawks or the Devils. This team is fairly scary when you boil them down, much like the Hawks. Depth scoring, solid goaltending from both goaltenders, and some youngsters that are living up to the potential. You can call it a perfect storm or what-have-you but realistically this storm has been brewing for a few years and its finally come together under a new system and new coach.

I will admit as much as I see this continuing, I can also see the train de-railing and **** hitting the fan very fast. The Ducks of old, the goon group, can show up any time and it could turn into a Wild-esque flop (last year). Only time will tell.

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02-20-2013, 05:54 PM
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Robert Theodorson
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Chicago is too good and Washington is too bad

San Jose was a nice story for a few games before they fell apart.

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02-20-2013, 05:59 PM
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PDO is a cool stat but nothing more. Teams with high PDO and good puck possession numbers are usually those that really play better, period.

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02-20-2013, 06:02 PM
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ATL? Really?

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02-20-2013, 06:04 PM
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Advanced stats are so wacky.

I'm going to make a new advanced state by using this simple formula (GA/G x 0.8) + (GF/G x 0.2) - (OS% + FO%) x PK%

It will be called PDORSI.

People will use it to their advantage when pimping their teams and against their enemies as well.

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02-20-2013, 06:18 PM
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Ceff Jarter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Is there proof of this somewhere?

I could see shooting percentage (which is half of the stat above) normalizing to league average over time, but I don't see save percentage doing the same.
I'm kinda confused by what this stat represents. Doesn't every team collectively have to normalize at 1?

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02-20-2013, 06:22 PM
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Habs are underperforming. Losing to the Leafs is a shame and we should be 13-2-1.

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02-20-2013, 06:27 PM
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Shinsuke Nakamura
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Originally Posted by SeriousHabs View Post
Habs are underperforming. Losing to the Leafs is a shame and we should be 13-2-1.
Who says we rattle off 5 straight wins without that kick in the ass from Toronto 11 days ago?

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02-20-2013, 06:37 PM
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You can't use possession stats with the Rangers. Nobody on the team can pass and they don't like to shoot much, so they rack up alot of those numbers literally standing there. Especially on the powerplay.

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02-20-2013, 06:41 PM
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Doctor No
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beached whaler View Post
I'm kinda confused by what this stat represents. Doesn't every team collectively have to normalize at 1?
Nah - if your shooting percentage is 12%, and your save percentage is 92%, then you'd come out at a 1.04.

I still would like some proof that it necessarily normalizes.

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02-20-2013, 06:46 PM
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RANDOMH3RO
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I don't see why the numbers would normalize, wouldn't that mean pretty much every team is the same, aside from luck?? I'm pretty sure some teams are good and some teams are bad, and being good doesn't mean you're over performing, and vice versa for being bad.

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02-20-2013, 06:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RANDOMH3RO View Post
I don't see why the numbers would normalize, wouldn't that mean pretty much every team is the same, aside from luck?? I'm pretty sure some teams are good and some teams are bad, and being good doesn't mean you're over performing, and vice versa for being bad.
This appears to be the concept behind PDO, that both shooting % and save % are purely luck driven statistics, and thus that they should always over time gradually approach 1.00 as your luck evens out. In practice, it seems to be a way to say that teams with a high PDO that are not seen as "good" teams are "lucky and overachieving" (Anaheim), teams with a high PDO that are seen as "good" teams are "good teams playing as expected" (Chicago), teams that are "good" teams with a low PDO are "unlucky and due to improve", and teams that are "bad" with low PDO are justifiably "bad".

It would be nice to see a rigorous statistical analysis that proves how many games it takes for PDO to be statistically significant, and to show how it isn't a measurement of things like injuries, systems and fatigue rather than "luck".

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02-20-2013, 07:06 PM
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Originally Posted by WakeUpNHL View Post
The scary part is that at a PDO of 0.986 says the Bruins are slightly under performing and should play a little better moving forward. I think this just reinforces how good a team game the Bruins play.
That is what I was going to say. It seems like they are winning even though they have not played their best yet, as a matter of fact, I think their best game they lost to the Rangers, they got the loser point, but it is still a loss.

When they get rolling I think they will play a lot better than they have so far. I'm not sure that means they will win any more games than they are now, but they will do it in a more spectacular fashion.

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02-20-2013, 08:40 PM
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Originally Posted by SeriousHabs View Post
Habs are underperforming. Losing to the Leafs is a shame and we should be 13-2-1.
I am so sadd.

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02-20-2013, 08:45 PM
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Canucks have over performed for sure.

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02-20-2013, 08:45 PM
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Smokey McCanucks
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I dunno what PDO is, but to my eye there's a big difference between a team people underrated performing at their proper level (Anaheim, Montreal) or a team people overrated performing at their proper level (Washington, Philly, Edmonton) than a team over-playing its ability (Chicago, Toronto) or underplaying it (LA, the Rangers, Minnesota, Buffalo).

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02-20-2013, 08:54 PM
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Shinsuke Nakamura
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I am so sadd.
We thank you for that beatdown. It woke us up.

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02-20-2013, 09:50 PM
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Even if you truly believe in the PDO number, it does not translate to "overperforming" with respect to wins...just "overperforming" with respect to goals scored.

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02-20-2013, 09:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Seth Rollins View Post
We thank you for that beatdown. It woke us up.
I'm not too much of a Habs fan,but it actually cool to see the Leafs,Habs and Sens all in the playoff picture.

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