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Ales Hemsky at the Deadline

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Old
02-20-2013, 08:24 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by SDig14 View Post
Penner returned 1st + 3rd + Teubert. That's the starting point.
As much as I'd like to see that, I wouldn't hold it as a standard. You ask Lombardi if he'd pay that price again, I'm pretty confident it's a big no. Factor into the equation the strength of the draft and I'd say it starts at a 1st, and probably doesn't go much higher. I'd be fine with the Pens ponying up a 1st and Harrington. The 1st could be 22-30 which could turn into a kid like Rychel/Lazar/Gauthier/Mantha. Harrington kinda reminds me of Steve Staios in his prime, which was a pretty solid 4/5 guy when he was an Oiler. Bottom line is we need more grit in our top 6 and even though Hemmer is only 29, that makes him the odd man out on this team.

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02-20-2013, 09:40 PM
  #77
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If we had a bigger top 6 I would have no problem keeping Hemsky, but that is the problem. So, do you keep a 29 yr old or do you keep the player that can play for you for the next 10 plus years and has more skill.

I am sure that if Hemsky is shopped at the deadline that he will get minimum 1st and a good prospect like Harrington type prospect. I see a need for a player with some size. NYI 1st and Nino would be nice.

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02-20-2013, 09:47 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Roof Daddy View Post
Nobody is asking for a Yakupov type (though I guess the one Bogo suggestion is almost as goofy, but no reasonable Oiler fan would suggest it). A Klefbom type + 1st for Hemsky is a bit of wishful thinking, but in the right ballpark. One Pens fan suggested Maata and a 1st, while another Pens fan scoffed at it. That tells me it is right in that range (maybe Harrington instead if he is valued slightly less than Maata).

As for whether or not I'd deal Klefbom and a 1st for Hemsky the answer would be no, but only based on team needs and the current position of our pick. We have enough skill, we need more size and grit. Now if I could deal that for Dustin Brown, the answer would be hell ya (I realize he is LA's captain and they wouldn't move him, just looking for a comparable in terms of age, contract status and production). A more valuable player, but so is the Klefbom + 1st package.

I think the Preds, Pens, Wings, Yotes and Devils would all have interest if still in a playoff spot at the deadline. The minimum starting point would be a first, which may eliminate the Wings (need to build their D prospect pool badly) and Devils (host the draft this year and must forfeit a 1st by 2014).

NAS: 1st + TB 3rd
PIT: 1st + Harrington
PHX: 1st + Brown
Well someone asked for Bogosian, since the Oilers did not have a D even close to that I tried to model it with Yakupov.

Whatever, I think 1st + 3rd is maybe possible at the deadline, if everything goes well for Hemsky until then, so we are not that far apart.
Would not give you 1st + Harrington ever, because Harrington >> 3rd and I do not want Hemsky on the Pens, but really, I don't think we have this super HUGE gap here, so lets not haggle about it.

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02-20-2013, 09:49 PM
  #79
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Oilers need to keep Hemsky.

Why? So they have to eat the guy and not get any value for him at all.

Nobody with half a brain is paying for 30 year old Hemsky when his stock is at its highest.

Oilers got to cheat for years with their tanking to get 1st overall picks. The other GM arent going to help them out further by taking more of their players that are too old for the upcoming core.

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02-20-2013, 10:50 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Wizeman View Post
Oilers need to keep Hemsky.

Why? So they have to eat the guy and not get any value for him at all.

Nobody with half a brain is paying for 30 year old Hemsky when his stock is at its highest.

Oilers got to cheat for years with their tanking to get 1st overall picks. The other GM arent going to help them out further by taking more of their players that are too old for the upcoming core.
Oh boy. Where to start?

So if we don't trade him, we're stuck with a talented winger. Damn our cursed luck.

And yes, you are right, what playoff bound team would possibly want a player who is playing at his best? You'd have to be a moron to actually try and improve your team.

And finally, I couldn't agree more that GM's of other teams should worry more about our tanking strategies than how a trade might affect their own team. It's like they are accomplices in our scandal of purposely sucking. How dare they. You should be a panelist on deadline day.

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Old
03-08-2013, 04:55 AM
  #81
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What's his value now?

23 games, 13pts, in 82 games he's on pace for 46pts. Is anyone finally ready to admit he's not the same player anymore and that his value has changed?

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Originally Posted by Roof Daddy View Post
Oh boy. Where to start?

So if we don't trade him, we're stuck with a talented winger. Damn our cursed luck.

And yes, you are right, what playoff bound team would possibly want a player who is playing at his best? You'd have to be a moron to actually try and improve your team.

And finally, I couldn't agree more that GM's of other teams should worry more about our tanking strategies than how a trade might affect their own team. It's like they are accomplices in our scandal of purposely sucking. How dare they. You should be a panelist on deadline day.
Biggest risk you can have is having a guy that is a 5m cap hit that is producing way below his means. He's a guy that is capable of more but at his age, he needs to move on and use whatever prime years he has left, with a contender. At the rate he's going, he'll be another Oiler signing that is over paid and his value would be so low when they finally do want to get rid of him that the return they get is crap now.

We've seen it with a few guys already.

Now the pace has been set. Last year he was on pace to put up 43pts, this year, 46 in 82 games had they played that many. Is a 45pt guy worth taking up a 5m cap hit?


PS: There is no way in hell that Shero gives up a 1st + Harrington for Hemsky. That's...well, laughable.


Last edited by Honour Over Glory: 03-08-2013 at 05:00 AM.
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Old
03-08-2013, 06:10 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Traitor Zach View Post
I think it behooves the Oilers to try and keep Hemsky. He's been an Oiler since being drafted and he's scoring now with better talent around him again. The key is to stay healthy of course.

However, I wouldnt be surprised if a team comes calling What helps Hemsky is that if you acquire him it's not just a rental, you get him for next year and can fully evaluate whether you want to extend him for say another 3 or 4 yrs at that point.

While I'm extremely wary of Hemsky's fragility at times, I would not be stunned to see Lou Lamoriello and the Devils at least calling the Oilers over the next month or so. There were rumors the Devils were calling the Oilers about Hemsky last season before he resigned and he'd be a sensible fit, considering they need another Top 6 winger and some scoring and he'd join a fellow Czech in Elias already on the team.

Just not sure the Devils have what the Oilers would want. Devils have to surrender a 1st one of these next two years, so I'm not sure they would be willing to surrender it this year. More likely the Devils go shopping in the rental aisle this year.

Hemsky is actually not fragile. In fact somewhat the opposite.

For most of his career the guy took a major pounding in good part because it was pretty well known that if you stopped Hemsky you stopped the Oilers. He has had a number of minor injuries but typically came back more quickly than anticipated. The fragility tag comes from the fact that he missed a lot of games in two years running due to labrum tears in both shoulders.

Tears like these have nothing to do with being fragile. They are very common hockey injuries and in reality could happen to any player on even the most innocent of plays. Players can play with them for long periods of time, even at a high level. But they often cause chronic pain. Typically that is when the decision to have surgery is made.

Recovery is roughly 5 to 6 months so if a player has surgery immediately after the season ends typically he is ready at the start of the next season for a non-playoff team or they may miss a few games the next year. However the longer you rehab the shoulder the better the long term prognosis.

Hemsky played with both tears for a long time. But since surgery had a high probablity of fixing the problem, with the Oilers pretty much out of the running they shut him down. The first year he had 22 points in 22 games before his surgey. Prior to the second surgery he was actually playing some of the best hockey he had played in years despite the tear. Had the Oilers been a playoff contender he probably plays the rest of the year and likely hits 65-70 points (he had 42 in 47 when they shut him down).

But it is because he had his surgery early that he missed so many games. The Oilers could have delayed things giving him less time to recover and he would have far less games missed. But this may have also increased the possibilty of complications down the road.

He came back last year and experienced some issues with scar tissue, which is common. So he sat out a few games. Since then he has played full time with no issues. He has been rocked on a number of occasions with no obvious damage. Right now he is really no more of an injury risk than any other player in the league.


Last edited by Fourier: 03-08-2013 at 06:16 AM.
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Old
03-08-2013, 09:15 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Roof Daddy View Post
As much as I'd like to see that, I wouldn't hold it as a standard. You ask Lombardi if he'd pay that price again, I'm pretty confident it's a big no. Factor into the equation the strength of the draft and I'd say it starts at a 1st, and probably doesn't go much higher. I'd be fine with the Pens ponying up a 1st and Harrington. The 1st could be 22-30 which could turn into a kid like Rychel/Lazar/Gauthier/Mantha. Harrington kinda reminds me of Steve Staios in his prime, which was a pretty solid 4/5 guy when he was an Oiler. Bottom line is we need more grit in our top 6 and even though Hemmer is only 29, that makes him the odd man out on this team.
Of course you would. He certainly isn't worth a first and a prime D prospect. No chance. He is making a high amount of money and becomes a UFA after next season. That is an easy pass.

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03-08-2013, 09:17 AM
  #84
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Originally Posted by rockinghockey View Post
If we had a bigger top 6 I would have no problem keeping Hemsky, but that is the problem. So, do you keep a 29 yr old or do you keep the player that can play for you for the next 10 plus years and has more skill.

I am sure that if Hemsky is shopped at the deadline that he will get minimum 1st and a good prospect like Harrington type prospect. I see a need for a player with some size. NYI 1st and Nino would be nice.
Minimum? You are grossly overrating his value.

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03-08-2013, 10:14 AM
  #85
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Originally Posted by OCPenguin View Post
Minimum? You are grossly overrating his value.
If anything, it's the other way around. The market for 1st liners is fairly well established at the deadline. A 1st and a prospect is pretty much the minimum these types of players go for.

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03-08-2013, 10:25 AM
  #86
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If anything, it's the other way around. The market for 1st liners is fairly well established at the deadline. A 1st and a prospect is pretty much the minimum these types of players go for.
What's the precedent? Dustin Penner? Marian Hossa? Ilya Kovalchuk? Brad Richards?

A late first and a meh prospect who has fallen out of favor with or is deemed expendable by the organization would be a realistic return... and then add in that Hemsky is an upcoming UFA, isn't at all durable, and is hardly at the top of his game this year and it's hardly set in stone exactly what the Oil would get back.

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03-08-2013, 10:41 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Kaoz View Post
What's the precedent? Dustin Penner? Marian Hossa? Ilya Kovalchuk? Brad Richards?

A late first and a meh prospect who has fallen out of favor with or is deemed expendable by the organization would be a realistic return... and then add in that Hemsky is an upcoming UFA, isn't at all durable, and is hardly at the top of his game this year and it's hardly set in stone exactly what the Oil would get back.
Gaustad got a 1st. Hemsky should fetch more. We'll see obviously, but precedent is there.

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03-08-2013, 11:08 AM
  #88
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The Oilers don't need to be trading Hemsky for draft picks though they should absolutely be moving him. It needs to be for a bigger player with a similar contract and maybe a slightly worse skillset. Hemsky for Drew Stafford for instance.

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03-08-2013, 11:13 AM
  #89
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Ales Hemsky+Sam Gagner for Tuomo Ruutu+Jussi Jokinen


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03-08-2013, 11:20 AM
  #90
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
If anything, it's the other way around. The market for 1st liners is fairly well established at the deadline. A 1st and a prospect is pretty much the minimum these types of players go for.
Except he is a second line guy in Edmonton, no? Give me a break down on how many games he has played on the top line this year, or even last. Thanks

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03-08-2013, 11:22 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Kaoz View Post
and then add in that Hemsky is an upcoming UFA, isn't at all durable, and is hardly at the top of his game this year and it's hardly set in stone exactly what the Oil would get back.
If by upcoming UFA you mean 1.5 seasons from now... sure...

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Old
03-08-2013, 11:29 AM
  #92
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Injury prone, poor defensively, and past his prime, with a year left on a contract with a high cap hit. No thanks.

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03-08-2013, 11:34 AM
  #93
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Originally Posted by Lessy View Post
The Oilers don't need to be trading Hemsky for draft picks though they should absolutely be moving him. It needs to be for a bigger player with a similar contract and maybe a slightly worse skillset. Hemsky for Drew Stafford for instance.
FWIIW, I could maybe see that. Then again, I don't think Stafford is worth a 1st + decent prospect either.

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03-08-2013, 11:36 AM
  #94
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FWIIW, I could maybe see that. Then again, I don't think Stafford is worth a 1st + decent prospect either.
That deal is basically an overpaid enigma for another.

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03-08-2013, 11:38 AM
  #95
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Again.

What motivates the Bruins, a team in playoff position to trading one of their key cogs in their top six for Hemsky? Horton's proven to play well in the system while Hemsky is still a question mark.

The Oilers have to make it sweet enough for the Bruins to do it. Straight up doesn't entice the Bruins who want to make a run. If the Oilers find a way to fill another Bruin need, then they might bite at it. Otherwise, there's nothing that makes the Bruins want to do that.
It's a silly trade in theory that doesn't benefit either team.

I'm not sure what Edmonton's specific needs are, but my understand is they have high end offense for their top 6, need solid bottom 6, better defense, and to solidify their goaltending. Is this accurate?

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03-08-2013, 11:38 AM
  #96
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That deal is basically an overpaid enigma for another.
Exactly.

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03-08-2013, 11:39 AM
  #97
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Originally Posted by WhalerTurnedBruin55 View Post
It's a silly trade in theory that doesn't benefit either team.

I'm not sure what Edmonton's specific needs are, but my understand is they have high end offense for their top 6, need solid bottom 6, better defense, and to solidify their goaltending. Is this accurate?

except their top six high end scorers aren't scoring. They really need everything

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03-08-2013, 11:53 AM
  #98
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Justin Abdelkader and a 2nd.

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03-08-2013, 01:23 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by Roof Daddy View Post
As much as I'd like to see that, I wouldn't hold it as a standard. You ask Lombardi if he'd pay that price again, I'm pretty confident it's a big no. Factor into the equation the strength of the draft and I'd say it starts at a 1st, and probably doesn't go much higher. I'd be fine with the Pens ponying up a 1st and Harrington. The 1st could be 22-30 which could turn into a kid like Rychel/Lazar/Gauthier/Mantha. Harrington kinda reminds me of Steve Staios in his prime, which was a pretty solid 4/5 guy when he was an Oiler. Bottom line is we need more grit in our top 6 and even though Hemmer is only 29, that makes him the odd man out on this team.
He won the cup last year. I don't think Lombardi would do anything differently at all.

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03-08-2013, 01:24 PM
  #100
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Injury prone, poor defensively, and past his prime, with a year left on a contract with a high cap hit. No thanks.
What?

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