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Overachieving, The Real Deal or Easy Schedule?

View Poll Results: How would you explain the recent success?
Over-Achieving 41 19.16%
Easy Schedule 28 13.08%
The Real Deal 55 25.70%
All of the Above 90 42.06%
Voters: 214. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
02-20-2013, 09:43 PM
  #126
905tech
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Originally Posted by ottawa View Post
You forgot to take into account the overtime losses...we're 4-1-1 not 4-2-0
4 out of 5 (regulation losses, ignoring the debacle in Buffalo.) would make the Habs .800

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02-20-2013, 09:45 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by techfox View Post
4 out of 5 (regulation losses, ignoring the debacle in Buffalo.) would make the Habs .800
Ok...what's your point?

6 gp: 12 points
4-1-1 = 9 points

9/12 = 0.75

Overtime losses aren't considered as total losses because we still get 1 point out of them. Your math is wrong because you're considering the OTLs as a 0 point loss.

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02-20-2013, 09:50 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by ottawa View Post
Ok...what's your point?

6 gp: 12 points
4-1-1 = 9 points

9/12 = 0.75

Overtime losses aren't considered as total losses because we still get 1 point out of them. Your math is wrong because you're considering the OTLs as a 0 point loss.
For you, .500 means 1 point per game.

For me, .500 means 1 win every 2 games.

Different conventions, but both are valid.

I prefer the latter because with it half the teams in the league ate valid.500 or better. With the former convention, three quarters of teams are .500 are better, it is a lower standard.

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02-20-2013, 09:57 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
For you, .500 means 1 point per game.

For me, .500 means 1 win every 2 games.

Different conventions, but both are valid.

I prefer the latter because with it half the teams in the league ate valid.500 or better. With the former convention, three quarters of teams are .500 are better, it is a lower standard.
Not at all, I'm just taking the 4-1-1 for what it really is, a 75% winning percentage and nothing more. I'm in te same boat as you, I would rather go 40-30-12 rather than 34-24-24 because that way we'll be awarding 12 less teams with an extra point, making a playoff berth easier.

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02-20-2013, 10:05 PM
  #130
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Originally Posted by ottawa View Post
Not at all, I'm just taking the 4-1-1 for what it really is, a 75% winning percentage and nothing more. I'm in te same boat as you, I would rather go 40-30-12 rather than 34-24-24 because that way we'll be awarding 12 less teams with an extra point, making a playoff berth easier.
I think that is his point though...4-1-1 is NOT a 75% winning percentage.

We have a .750 points percentage.

Our winning percentage is only ~.667

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02-20-2013, 10:14 PM
  #131
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9 points out of a potential 12 points is .750 points %.

4 wins out of 6 games is .667 winning %.

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02-20-2013, 10:16 PM
  #132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
For you, .500 means 1 point per game.

For me, .500 means 1 win every 2 games.

Different conventions, but both are valid.

I prefer the latter because with it half the teams in the league ate valid.500 or better. With the former convention, three quarters of teams are .500 are better, it is a lower standard.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryanwb View Post
I think that is his point though...4-1-1 is NOT a 75% winning percentage.

We have a .750 points percentage.

Our winning percentage is only ~.667
Quote:
Originally Posted by techfox View Post
9 points out of a potential 12 points is .750 points %.

4 wins out of 6 games is .667 winning %.
Oh, now I understand what you guys mean lol. I was wrong then, 0.75 is our points % and not our winning %

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02-20-2013, 10:30 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by ottawa View Post
Oh, now I understand what you guys mean lol. I was wrong then, 0.75 is our points % and not our winning %
Winning percentage is the term used in the NHL to difine point conversion. It is not meant to define litterally games won versus losses.

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02-20-2013, 10:54 PM
  #134
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So the bruins' insecurities are bubbling up again. They have a thread (or discussion diverted to) about how we've been having success and that this is unacceptable. If I were them, I really wouldn't be too worried and would just keep playing and get into the playoffs. But of course you see the (typical) posts about how winning the Cup by beating us (you know, the Cup* they won* after almost killing Patches) is the best thing in the universe. Just saying, their worst nightmare, their boogeyman still is and always will be, the Habs.

I'm just happy we're doing well now and am trying to enjoy it. Remember when we lost 6-0 to the Leafs at home, not just over a week ago? Things change fast so we have to be braced for whatever's coming. I think we're a good strong team, but this is the NHL, and there are so many variables. I continue to think we'll make the playoffs at 6-8. I also think the Leafs have a good chance to make it. As will the Bs, probably leading the division. I'm not concerned with anything but us getting into the playoffs as a good team (not just squeaking in) and THEN we can worry about whoever it is that stands in our way.

Imagine we get Cole going!

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Old
02-20-2013, 11:18 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by ottawa View Post
Not at all, I'm just taking the 4-1-1 for what it really is, a 75% winning percentage and nothing more. I'm in te same boat as you, I would rather go 40-30-12 rather than 34-24-24 because that way we'll be awarding 12 less teams with an extra point, making a playoff berth easier.
I checked out your calculations.

If the Habs go 40-30-12 they get 92 points (80 + 12). With 34-24-24 the Habs also get 92 points (68 + 24). Now let's look at what the opponents get.

If the Habs go 34-24-24 the opponents get 96 points (48 points by winning 24 of the 60 minute games + 48 points from 24 OT/SO wins).

If the Habs go 40-30-12 the opponents get 60 points for winning 30 of the 60 minute games + 24 points for winning the 24 OT/SO games, a total of 84 points.

Not only are you correct about the 12 points the opponents would miss out on, but there's a bonus to the 40-30-12 record. The extra 6 wins could come in handy because wins are the deciding factor when two teams have exactly the same number of points at season's end.

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02-20-2013, 11:53 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
We've seen this before in Toronto, they go on a hot streak based around one element doing very well, last year it was Kessel and Lupul going on a scoring rampage for a couple months, in this case their goaltenders have been playing out of their skulls. But eventually their lack of two-way talent, both at forward and defense, in their lineup drags them back to earth and they stink again.
Well uh... we've seen this from us too. We patented the 2nd half swoon.
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Originally Posted by Bullsmith View Post
The other potential problem in Toronto is the way they are rushing their young goalies. Two guys with zero complete seasons as a successful NHL number one COMBINED are supposed to carry the franchise. No pressure, take your time becoming an NHL number one. No worries teams will start to exploit, say, a glove hand once the league zones in on it.

Not saying they won't succeed, and it's nothing against Reimer or Scrivens themselves, but man if I were writing a book on how to ruin goalie prospects...

Sorry for going off topic. Let me get back on by by pointing out that Carey Price has survived being thrown to the wolves too young (I would argue in part by Jaro Halak forcing him to fight for his job, and to compete at an elite level). He's a huge reason the Habs are off to a good start.
The Leafs just had to keep Rask... but that's another story.

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Old
02-21-2013, 12:03 AM
  #137
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It's the real deal. A few factors explain it. The first one is depth. We have 3 forward lines that can score. This is a surprise to me, as I did not think that Galchenyuk and Gallagher would be so good right off the bat. Our weakest link on a full line-up is White or Moen (Armstrong wouldn't even make the team), those are great "worst players", better than almost every other team. Lately we always had this one forward that sucked to the point that he was a liability - not this year.

Secondly, for the first time in years, we don't have a truly bad dman. Every one of them is at least acceptable defensively. Emelin is excellent, Gorges and Bouillon are very reliable, Markov is a god pincher, Subban is Subban and Diaz is not bad. Our defensive system is efficient, and Price stops most of what comes through.

Thirdly, the powerplay is strong - Markov makes a huge difference, as usual. Name me 3 defensemen in the league who are better on the powerplay, you can't. He used to be 2nd best only to Lidstrom.

These three factors improved our offense and defense significantly over last year.

We're not the best in the East, but it's looking like top 5.

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02-21-2013, 12:18 AM
  #138
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We've seen one real moment of adversity, and that was the 6-0 drubbing they took on home ice against the leafs, and they responded fiercely and positively

Calling the habs schedule easy is basically like calling out a chunk of the eastern conference. All of the losses have been within the division, and a couple of them were blown 3rd period leads.

The team just keeps finding a way. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, but I'm sure as hell enjoying the ride.

It took 41 wins to get in the dance last year. Pro-rated, that means 24 wins this year. That means 13 wins in the final 32 games to get in.

That sounds pretty damn achievable to me. You might say that we should set our hopes higher considering this start, but I would have gladly taken a playoff spot before the season started, so I'll keep my expectations constant.
Or to look at it another way, most pundits agree it will take about 54-55 points to get into the playoffs. Let's say 55, this means we need to play ,500 (point percentage) till the end of the season, 32 points in 32 games.

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02-21-2013, 01:15 AM
  #139
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Well uh... we've seen this from us too. We patented the 2nd half swoon.

The Leafs just had to keep Rask... but that's another story.
I agree, in some ways this opening stretch is the same as the one they had to start the disaster season just this time the bounces favour Montreal rather than going the other way.

But Montreal's fundamentals are a long stronger than Toronto's. This core group of Habs players tends to be average to above average in the East while the Leafs tend to stink. I can believe Montreal can be an above average team based on a deep offense, two top defenseman and a proven star goaltender. Montreal's successful scorers are largely canceled out by their under performing ones. I'm a bit incredulous that the Leafs will keep up their team wide hot streak on scoring and their goaltending tandem will be as effective moving forward.

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02-21-2013, 01:19 AM
  #140
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Originally Posted by Windymind View Post
Carey Price


Canada's #1 goaltender!

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02-21-2013, 05:11 AM
  #141
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Exactly. We are winless against the Western Conference. We have also FAILED more than once per week since the season began. That is a terribly frequent occurence. FIVE times we were humiliated, one of which was in a shootout, the other four times the humiliation mercifully lasted only sixty minutes.

If not for the games where we scored more than our opponents, our winning percentage would be ZERO.

Another way of looking at it is this, which since we are in Montreal, is the only way of looking at things: how are we doing against Toronto? Again, this points to a season with a ZERO winning percentage.

Even if we look at the individual games, what we see is a disaster. The Habs are only able to score on a minority of their shots. Most of the time, the effort fails. In fact, in almost every game, believe it or not, these masters of futility have registered more icings than goals scored!!!!! That is pitiful.

Defensively, things are no better. Game after game, the opponents have been able to shoot on our net at least 17 times, sometimes over 30! And that is without counting the times they chose to shoot the puck at one of our defenders. How much longer can we go on scoring just three goals per game while allowing an average of 25 shots against?????

Also, whatever limited success the club has is clearly the result of cheating. Not only have the officials penalized the club DOZENS of times, but according to the opposing team coaches, there were even additional infractions that went unnoticed. And, the truth be told, at least two of our goals this year were close to being offside, and several others were the result of the opposing goaltender missing the shot. We can't keep counting on such luck.

All in all, I am very pessimistic about this season. The only thing that gives me hope is that at the moment, we are still managing to be ahead of fourteen other teams, and they may not all have enough time to catch up to the points that the league has awarded to us up until now.
underrated post

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Old
02-21-2013, 06:22 AM
  #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chewBACHa View Post
all our losses are against NE division.
VS ATL || VS NE || VS SE
3-0-0 || 2-4-1 ||6-0-0

easy schedule nah.
We have a good coach, fast players, executing the game plan.
Average at best but I digress.

I think it is a mix of easier schedule especially with tons of home games and the team overachieving a little. But as they say, the more wins you get early, the better it is.

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02-21-2013, 06:50 AM
  #143
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Originally Posted by habtastic View Post
So the bruins' insecurities are bubbling up again. They have a thread (or discussion diverted to) about how we've been having success and that this is unacceptable. If I were them, I really wouldn't be too worried and would just keep playing and get into the playoffs. But of course you see the (typical) posts about how winning the Cup by beating us (you know, the Cup* they won* after almost killing Patches) is the best thing in the universe. Just saying, their worst nightmare, their boogeyman still is and always will be, the Habs.

I'm just happy we're doing well now and am trying to enjoy it. Remember when we lost 6-0 to the Leafs at home, not just over a week ago? Things change fast so we have to be braced for whatever's coming. I think we're a good strong team, but this is the NHL, and there are so many variables. I continue to think we'll make the playoffs at 6-8. I also think the Leafs have a good chance to make it. As will the Bs, probably leading the division. I'm not concerned with anything but us getting into the playoffs as a good team (not just squeaking in) and THEN we can worry about whoever it is that stands in our way.

Imagine we get Cole going!
Great post, I completely agree!!

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02-21-2013, 07:23 AM
  #144
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Over-achieving looks to me. But if it lasts could be another 1986. Just a fluke one of those years where everything goes right. Team stays healthier than most years, 3 or 4 players have their career years, rookies are impressing and we get a boost late in the year. Could be another '86

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02-21-2013, 08:00 AM
  #145
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The habs have won 11 games out of 16 so far. Taking a look at that stat all on its own one might conclude that they are playing very well...

Stats can be deceiving...

A closer look at the opponents they've beaten:
- Tampa Bay
- Florida (twice)
- Philly
- Carolina
- Buffalo
- Ottawa
- Washington
- Winnepeg
- New Joisey

How many of the above teams will make the playoffs? Exactly. Now shut up.

Next.. its the way they're winning... The habs have only blown out their opponent in one game (Buffalo, 6-1 Victory A MONTH AGO)... The habs have been blown out TWICE (Ottawa, Toronto)... In other words, they are getting blown more than they are blowing.. or blown out? Blown in.. anyway... the blowing goes against the Habs and the rest of the games have been close affairs where the habs have simply won because their opponents made one or two more mistakes than they did. The habs aren't BEATING teams.. they are winning.. but their wins occur from their opponents BEATING THEMSELVES.

Blowing and beating-it, the habs will continue on this run for sure and come out with a winning record, but don't be fooled.. the over the top optimism on this board about the habs is juvenile and doesn't recognize the real factors.. this team is not going anywhere..

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02-21-2013, 08:37 AM
  #146
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Originally Posted by Karl Pilkington View Post
The habs have won 11 games out of 16 so far. Taking a look at that stat all on its own one might conclude that they are playing very well...

Stats can be deceiving...

A closer look at the opponents they've beaten:
- Tampa Bay
- Florida (twice)
- Philly
- Carolina
- Buffalo
- Ottawa
- Washington
- Winnepeg
- New Joisey

How many of the above teams will make the playoffs? Exactly. Now shut up.

Next.. its the way they're winning... The habs have only blown out their opponent in one game (Buffalo, 6-1 Victory A MONTH AGO)... The habs have been blown out TWICE (Ottawa, Toronto)... In other words, they are getting blown more than they are blowing.. or blown out? Blown in.. anyway... the blowing goes against the Habs and the rest of the games have been close affairs where the habs have simply won because their opponents made one or two more mistakes than they did. The habs aren't BEATING teams.. they are winning.. but their wins occur from their opponents BEATING THEMSELVES.

Blowing and beating-it, the habs will continue on this run for sure and come out with a winning record, but don't be fooled.. the over the top optimism on this board about the habs is juvenile and doesn't recognize the real factors.. this team is not going anywhere..
You're exaggerating. Yea we got blown out twice but the other 3 losses have all been very close 1 goal games that could've easily gone the other way.

As for wins, we only have 1 big blow out but we've beaten 4 teams by 3 goals which is a pretty good margin of victory, if not a blowout.

We're not like Florida last year who had a winning record while still having a - +/-, we're +11 which is good enough for 3rd in the league even with the 2 blowouts. This means that most of the time we're winning by a lot and not losing by that much.

Quit being so negative.

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02-21-2013, 08:52 AM
  #147
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Originally Posted by Karl Pilkington View Post

Next.. its the way they're winning... The habs have only blown out their opponent in one game (Buffalo, 6-1 Victory A MONTH AGO)... The habs have been blown out TWICE (Ottawa, Toronto)... In other words, they are getting blown more than they are blowing.. or blown out? Blown in.. anyway... the blowing goes against the Habs and the rest of the games have been close affairs where the habs have simply won because their opponents made one or two more mistakes than they did. The habs aren't BEATING teams.. they are winning.. but their wins occur from their opponents BEATING THEMSELVES.

Blowing and beating-it, the habs will continue on this run for sure and come out with a winning record, but don't be fooled.. the over the top optimism on this board about the habs is juvenile and doesn't recognize the real factors.. this team is not going anywhere..
Weird way to look at things. Blow outs are an abnormality in today's NHL. They don't tell much about a team other that the players didn't show up for a game.

Since last Thursday, only 11 games (out of 46 games) were decided by a margin of 3 goals or more (including 2 wins by the Habs). This means 75% of the games were close games.

We witnessed only 2 real blow outs, Philadelphia (7) vs Islanders (0) and then Islanders (5) vs NJ (1). What does it tells you? Nothing. Islanders and NJ just didn't show up one night for whatever reason.

In this era of parity, you judge a team by it's capacity to win close games, since it's what most games are anyways.

Anyway, as I said before, I'm highly surprised by the rankings right now and I still doubt the Habs can keep this pace. But lets not minimize what they did. They earned those points by playing a solid system. Now, I expect other teams to adjust to it. It's gonna be harder down the road.

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02-21-2013, 08:53 AM
  #148
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I voted with all of the above.

I think that it all kind of applies to the season we are currently having. I think the team is good but that realistically we've slightly overachieved in large part due to our schedule.

I still vow that this is a bubble-team in a normal 82-game season and that the shortened schedule has allowed great variances in teams performances as well as personal performances. It doesn't allow for the law of averages to properly level out. We could very well finish in the upper hierarchy of the Eastern Conference this season, but not unlike 2007-2008 I would pin a lot of it on sheer luck (lack of injuries) and overachieving, and unlike that year just the fact some teams were never able to gain traction for various reasons.

We still have a lot of under performing players that should sound off alarm bells, Erik Cole and Brian Gionta are two relative question marks. David Desharnais has so far been unable to reproduce the highs of last season. We're playing great hockey as a team right now and that's really all that matters, but when the production does dip... These guys need to step it up in a big way, or this 11-4-1 start is going to end up in the rear-view a lot sooner than some people think.

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02-21-2013, 08:56 AM
  #149
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Easy schedule because of so many home games, but still, they have an awesome record on the road, so what do I know

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02-21-2013, 09:06 AM
  #150
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underrated post
Thanks, man.

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