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Subban's play since coming back

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Old
02-19-2013, 10:14 PM
  #451
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Originally Posted by hockeyfan2k11 View Post
Here we go over-analyzing his mistakes while ignoring the mistakes of others. The 1st goal was moreso Cole's fault but PK deserved some of the blame there.

Still, are we really going to play this guy like a 6th d-man and cut his ice time when he makes mistakes?
we're winning. logo in front.

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02-19-2013, 10:26 PM
  #452
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Not sure if anyone else has noticed, maybe I'm just imagining things, but Subban's been making some real intelligent passes lately. Creative passing, imo, has never really been his game, but he seems to have added it to his arsenal. I've seen him make a few passes not unlike the one Markov fed Pleks with at the beginning of the season (fake slapper to pass). The pass he fed to pleks yesterday when he got out of the box was also real nice. I really didn't think he'd get it through.
yup...

He's improving consistently year after year and has since we drafted him. every indication is that he has the kind of maturity & drive to ensure that he continues improving for years to come, constantly working at his craft and fine tuning it piece by piece.

exactly why this kid will compete for a Norris one day.

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02-19-2013, 10:37 PM
  #453
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just from an outsiders view...and bruins fan but huge pk fan believe it or not...what the heck is going on with his icetime? is raphael diaz all of a sudden better or why is he getting more icetime than pk?

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02-19-2013, 10:46 PM
  #454
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Originally Posted by redbeard7737 View Post
just from an outsiders view...and bruins fan but huge pk fan believe it or not...what the heck is going on with his icetime? is raphael diaz all of a sudden better or why is he getting more icetime than pk?
Diaz has been incredible so far this season. PK hasn't been bad or anything, Diaz started the year well so when PK came back he had to start on the third pairing. We're winning so nothing to change really, PK will still get his ice.


Last edited by HankyZetts: 02-19-2013 at 11:33 PM.
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02-20-2013, 02:24 AM
  #455
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Diaz has been incredible so far this season. PK hasn't been bad or anything, Diaz started the year well so when PK came back he had to start on the third pairing. We're winning so nothing to change really, PK will still get his ice.
that and balance I'd say... Gorges-Diaz and Subban-Bouillon is more balanced than Gorges-Subban and Diaz-Bouillon.

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02-20-2013, 09:35 AM
  #456
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
we're winning. logo in front.
Habs won with Budaj in nets for two games in a row.. Why put Price in?

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02-20-2013, 09:38 AM
  #457
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Subban's been very conservative, almost showing modesty in what he is capable of. I think once he finds his stride, he may take a few more chances.

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02-20-2013, 09:48 AM
  #458
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
that and balance I'd say... Gorges-Diaz and Subban-Bouillon is more balanced than Gorges-Subban and Diaz-Bouillon.
I rather see Emelin-PK, Markov-Gorges, Bouillon-Diaz. I think Emelin is much better on the left than he is on the right. Gorges is the one that should be playing off wing, he plays well on both sides.

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02-20-2013, 11:43 AM
  #459
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
I rather see Emelin-PK, Markov-Gorges, Bouillon-Diaz. I think Emelin is much better on the left than he is on the right. Gorges is the one that should be playing off wing, he plays well on both sides.
I don't like the Emelin-PK pairing. Bouillon is more reliable, conservative and experienced defensively, which is needed to react appropriately and cover for PK when the latter does some wild (dare I say "risky") things on the ice.

The experienced defensive pillars Markov, Gorges and Bouillon paired with young less-experienced Ds, PK, Emelin and Diaz. Makes sense.

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02-20-2013, 12:54 PM
  #460
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Habs won with Budaj in nets for two games in a row.. Why put Price in?
You don't lose your job because of illness but you do when you decide to stay at home.

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02-20-2013, 01:00 PM
  #461
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
we're winning. logo in front.
Doing well is not an excuse to not try to do better. What awful logic.

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02-20-2013, 01:02 PM
  #462
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You don't lose your job because of illness but you do when you decide to stay at home.
What about when you decide to stay at home, feigning illness?

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02-20-2013, 02:22 PM
  #463
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Originally Posted by overlords View Post
Doing well is not an excuse to not try to do better. What awful logic.
never said otherwise, dont know where you get the impression...


yup, awful logic.

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02-20-2013, 03:25 PM
  #464
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PK Subban
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 39.4 minutes/GA
2011/2012 - 26.6 minutes/GA

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - No goals against yet - Only played 11 SHTOI, averaging just over 1/game
2011/2012 - 17.6 minutes/GA - Really good considering he played 211 SHTOI (close to 3/game), Chara played 215 SHTOI by comparison so this is a lot.

Andrei Markov
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 24.3 minutes/GA
2008/2009 - 20.0 minutes/GA
2007/2008 - 21.8 minutes/GA

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - 10.4 minutes/SHGA
2008/2009 - 7.1 minutes/SHGA
2007/2008 - 9.3 minutes/SHGA

Josh Gorges
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 27.5 minutes/GA
2011/2012 - 23.8 minutes/GA

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - 9.8 minutes/SHGA - A bit lower than it's been for him in the past.
2011/2012 - 13.9 minutes/SHGA - One of the best in the league, ridiculous considering he played over 300 SHTOI (Gill played 264 SHTOI and had the same 13.9 minutes/GA)

Raphael Diaz
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 40.75 minutes/GA - Total Beast. Will go down like Subban's but still very impressive this far into the season.

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - 11.7 minutes/SHGA - Playing over 2 SHTOI/game. Looking like a 2nd PK unit staple.

Alexei Emelin
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 24.2 minutes/GA

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - 8.2 minutes/GA - Played 49 SH minutes, 3rd most on team. Might be more effective to reduce his SHTOI/game from 3+min and give about half to Subban.

Conclusion?
- Diaz fully deserves his icetime...might have a long term keeper on RD. Streit 2.0 but with a coaching staff that can see his D abilities?
- Markov is pretty much same old Markov on D.
- Emelin has been alright even strength but might not be ready to be playing 1st PK unit type shorthanded minutes. His lower effectiveness might be due to being at an disadvantage playing RD on the PK. Giving some of his icetime to Subban IMO will help this PK be tops in the league again.

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02-20-2013, 04:08 PM
  #465
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Originally Posted by Poulet Kostopoulos View Post
I don't like the Emelin-PK pairing. Bouillon is more reliable, conservative and experienced defensively, which is needed to react appropriately and cover for PK when the latter does some wild (dare I say "risky") things on the ice.

The experienced defensive pillars Markov, Gorges and Bouillon paired with young less-experienced Ds, PK, Emelin and Diaz. Makes sense.
I dont think it's a coincidence that Bouillon is looking really good playing next to PK.
Just like Gill looked good next to him last year.

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Old
02-20-2013, 04:11 PM
  #466
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Nothing but good things we are seeing from PK. Bergevin better have his contract extension ready this July!!

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02-20-2013, 04:34 PM
  #467
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Watsatheo View Post
PK Subban
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 39.4 minutes/GA
2011/2012 - 26.6 minutes/GA

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - No goals against yet - Only played 11 SHTOI, averaging just over 1/game
2011/2012 - 17.6 minutes/GA - Really good considering he played 211 SHTOI (close to 3/game), Chara played 215 SHTOI by comparison so this is a lot.

Andrei Markov
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 24.3 minutes/GA
2008/2009 - 20.0 minutes/GA
2007/2008 - 21.8 minutes/GA

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - 10.4 minutes/SHGA
2008/2009 - 7.1 minutes/SHGA
2007/2008 - 9.3 minutes/SHGA

Josh Gorges
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 27.5 minutes/GA
2011/2012 - 23.8 minutes/GA

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - 9.8 minutes/SHGA - A bit lower than it's been for him in the past.
2011/2012 - 13.9 minutes/SHGA - One of the best in the league, ridiculous considering he played over 300 SHTOI (Gill played 264 SHTOI and had the same 13.9 minutes/GA)

Raphael Diaz
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 40.75 minutes/GA - Total Beast. Will go down like Subban's but still very impressive this far into the season.

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - 11.7 minutes/SHGA - Playing over 2 SHTOI/game. Looking like a 2nd PK unit staple.

Alexei Emelin
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 24.2 minutes/GA

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - 8.2 minutes/GA - Played 49 SH minutes, 3rd most on team. Might be more effective to reduce his SHTOI/game from 3+min and give about half to Subban.

Conclusion?
- Diaz fully deserves his icetime...might have a long term keeper on RD. Streit 2.0 but with a coaching staff that can see his D abilities?
- Markov is pretty much same old Markov on D.
- Emelin has been alright even strength but might not be ready to be playing 1st PK unit type shorthanded minutes. His lower effectiveness might be due to being at an disadvantage playing RD on the PK. Giving some of his icetime to Subban IMO will help this PK be tops in the league again.
Very nice numbers. Diaz has been much better than I thought. Thanks. What about Bouillon?

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02-20-2013, 04:43 PM
  #468
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Watsatheo View Post
PK Subban
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 39.4 minutes/GA
2011/2012 - 26.6 minutes/GA

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - No goals against yet - Only played 11 SHTOI, averaging just over 1/game
2011/2012 - 17.6 minutes/GA - Really good considering he played 211 SHTOI (close to 3/game), Chara played 215 SHTOI by comparison so this is a lot.

Andrei Markov
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 24.3 minutes/GA
2008/2009 - 20.0 minutes/GA
2007/2008 - 21.8 minutes/GA

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - 10.4 minutes/SHGA
2008/2009 - 7.1 minutes/SHGA
2007/2008 - 9.3 minutes/SHGA

Josh Gorges
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 27.5 minutes/GA
2011/2012 - 23.8 minutes/GA

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - 9.8 minutes/SHGA - A bit lower than it's been for him in the past.
2011/2012 - 13.9 minutes/SHGA - One of the best in the league, ridiculous considering he played over 300 SHTOI (Gill played 264 SHTOI and had the same 13.9 minutes/GA)

Raphael Diaz
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 40.75 minutes/GA - Total Beast. Will go down like Subban's but still very impressive this far into the season.

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - 11.7 minutes/SHGA - Playing over 2 SHTOI/game. Looking like a 2nd PK unit staple.

Alexei Emelin
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 24.2 minutes/GA

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - 8.2 minutes/GA - Played 49 SH minutes, 3rd most on team. Might be more effective to reduce his SHTOI/game from 3+min and give about half to Subban.

Conclusion?
- Diaz fully deserves his icetime...might have a long term keeper on RD. Streit 2.0 but with a coaching staff that can see his D abilities?
- Markov is pretty much same old Markov on D.
- Emelin has been alright even strength but might not be ready to be playing 1st PK unit type shorthanded minutes. His lower effectiveness might be due to being at an disadvantage playing RD on the PK. Giving some of his icetime to Subban IMO will help this PK be tops in the league again.
Diaz has been getting some crazy help from goaltending though, .966 save percentage.

He's had a nice run but Subban remains the shot prevention king for the Habs, just like he has been for the previous two years in MTL and should be the guy in Diaz's position both 5 on 5 and on the penalty kill.

Not that Diaz is bad or anything, he's doing decently. But he's playing like a mid level PMD on a hot streak and Subban can provide a lot more than that.

Its pretty analogous to the Eller situaton. Therrien is taking a while to get these guys back into the role it should be obvious that they should be playing based on previous history.

Your right about Emelin on the PK though. He seems like the weak link there and hasn't never been strong there. Swapping his PK duties with Subban probably would be a big boost.


Overall, I think the best thing they can possibly do for the team is revive Gorges-Subban as the main shutdown pairing and ease the load on Markov-Emelin which is better suited to be an elite 2nd pair than the main shutdown unit they've been used as this season.

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02-20-2013, 04:51 PM
  #469
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As in who would be a more effective player right now? That's a good question, I think I go PK with that one because I'm not sure if Jones is thick enough to be physically dominant. But I'd trade Pk for him in a heartbeat. He will be better than Pk by his second season at the latest imo.



That's fine. I do. 6'6" that can skate, has skill, plays tough and has great hockey sense? Come on.

everybody where saying the samething about myers..who would you take now?

i dont doubt jones is a boss, but i will wait few years before making any predictions

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02-20-2013, 05:20 PM
  #470
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Very nice numbers. Diaz has been much better than I thought. Thanks. What about Bouillon?
~Total TOI~
2012/2013 - 25.2 minutes/GA

~Short handed TOI~
2012/2013 - 9.3 minutes/SHGA

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02-20-2013, 05:27 PM
  #471
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Good teams have the luxury to not overburden their best defenceman. Say Alex Pietrangelo is having a shaky game, the Blues can just as easily give more ice time to Kevin Shattenkirk. But at the end of the day, we all know who's the best all-around D-man on that team.

Same thing applies here. Subban was borderline-dominant versus the Hurricanes the other night. Confident with the puck, effortlessly got it out his zone, played solid defence, and skated tremendously. A complete workhorse.

At least we're not the Blue Jackets. We don't have to play Jack "Banana Pancakes" Johnson for 30 mins a night.

As long as this team's winning, I don't mind if PK's mins are kept lower than usual. Cause if this team makes the playoffs, I'm pretty confident we'll be seeing a lot more of him against the other team's top line. The coaching staff aren't idiots, they're aware of his shutdown abilities.


Last edited by SB164: 02-20-2013 at 05:32 PM.
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02-20-2013, 05:59 PM
  #472
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Diaz has been getting some crazy help from goaltending though, .966 save percentage.
Not all shots are equal. Next you will tell me how shot quality regress to the mean but in such a small amount of games, it's entirely possible Diaz has done a good job of limiting high quality shots.

You really need to start thinking beyond the preconceived stat notions that all shots are equal. It CAN be true statistically over a high amount of shots, but it's not always true. Especially not over a 15 games spread.

It's like watching Gionta's entire career and you can see he has around 10% shooting so goalies must be really good against him...nope, it's just because Gionta takes shots from everywhere even when he has extremely low odds of scoring. Not all shots are equal. There is such a thing as shot quality. A guy like Tanguay or Stamkos will always have a higher shooting % than Gionta. In Stamkos' case it's because he has a better shot. In Tanguay's case it's because he's smarter with his shot decisions. For shooting percentage for your own goalie while you're on the ice, it's the same thing.

Advanced stats can't replace common sense. You still need to make sure you're not giving false meaning to the numbers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Watsatheo View Post
Conclusion?
- Diaz fully deserves his icetime...might have a long term keeper on RD. Streit 2.0 but with a coaching staff that can see his D abilities?
- Markov is pretty much same old Markov on D.
- Emelin has been alright even strength but might not be ready to be playing 1st PK unit type shorthanded minutes. His lower effectiveness might be due to being at an disadvantage playing RD on the PK. Giving some of his icetime to Subban IMO will help this PK be tops in the league again.
Thank you for taking the time to post this, it's interesting.


Last edited by Des Louise: 02-20-2013 at 06:05 PM.
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02-20-2013, 07:40 PM
  #473
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hmmm.

PK - Markov pairing did not work real well

PK - Diaz ? not sure if we have seen this yet

PK - Gorges we know this works

PK - Cube works ok but not great

PK - Emelin This should work

Could you pair any of D together and make it work? playing them even minutes?

I like the Markov - Emelin pairing but I would like to see them playing 2nd pairing with even amount of minutes and have PK - Gorges playing 1st pairing but splitting the tougher assignments with Markov - Emelin. That would leave Diaz and Cube playing the least and easiest minutes and Cube pairing up with Gorges/Subban for PK time and Diaz paring with Markov/Subban for PP time.



When PK came back why was he slotted in as 3rd pairing?


Last edited by habfan1968: 02-20-2013 at 07:41 PM. Reason: too add in a question
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02-20-2013, 10:59 PM
  #474
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Like I've said before, the only real complaint I have is his 1 bad penalty per game quota.

But I suppose he's equally capable of drawing penalties... still, its an area he can improve on.

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02-21-2013, 12:08 AM
  #475
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Not all shots are equal. Next you will tell me how shot quality regress to the mean but in such a small amount of games, it's entirely possible Diaz has done a good job of limiting high quality shots.

You really need to start thinking beyond the preconceived stat notions that all shots are equal. It CAN be true statistically over a high amount of shots, but it's not always true. Especially not over a 15 games spread.

It's like watching Gionta's entire career and you can see he has around 10% shooting so goalies must be really good against him...nope, it's just because Gionta takes shots from everywhere even when he has extremely low odds of scoring. Not all shots are equal. There is such a thing as shot quality. A guy like Tanguay or Stamkos will always have a higher shooting % than Gionta. In Stamkos' case it's because he has a better shot. In Tanguay's case it's because he's smarter with his shot decisions. For shooting percentage for your own goalie while you're on the ice, it's the same thing.

Advanced stats can't replace common sense. You still need to make sure you're not giving false meaning to the numbers.



Thank you for taking the time to post this, it's interesting.
Treating the shots as equal doesn't conform exactly to reality but its a powerful simplification that allows us to focus more on what an individual player can influence and control.

Shot quality is very much a thing, but not strongly under the influence of an individual player on the defensive side. The quality of shot is more about location, puck movement and opposition talent. Opposing talent is completely out of a player's hands, movement and positioning is something that happens at the 5 man level (effectively team level) rather than as individuals. Even then the talent differences are fairly minor. Meanwhile the control a defensive pairing has on their shots against is fairly direct and straight forward and easier to see at the macro level.

At smaller scales like the ~15 games we've seen so far, just looking at shots against or scoring chances is the only method with any kind of predictive power, and scoring chances will tend to trend to the shots going forward rather than shots towards the chances.

I know its tempting to point out the model doesn't take into account this, this and this. But for the level I was talking at that's more detail and nuance than needed.

Which gets back to the point, Diaz has had crazy good results in not having goals against so far. but its probably more a matter of good fortune than talent and its not a reason to favour him over another RHD PMD that has a strong proven track record of being very effective at suppressing the oppositions offense for the shutdown role.

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