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Ryan O'Reilly : Money-Money-Money-Money...Mo-ney!! Thread #6

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02-21-2013, 01:05 AM
  #326
Duchene2MacKinnon
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Originally Posted by Avs_19 View Post
We're back at .500 now. Landeskog is expected back very soon and EJ is also feeling a lot better according to Dater.

Trade him now and get back a player or two who could can help us.
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Originally Posted by The Mars Volchenkov View Post
Agreed.
.
I 100% disagree, you don't trade a player like ROR just to make a push for a playoffs and be cannon fodder foor the other team in the 1st rd. You take your time and get the best possible deal even if it means having to wait for a prospect to develop.

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02-21-2013, 01:18 AM
  #327
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I 100% disagree, you don't trade a player like ROR just to make a push for a playoffs and be cannon fodder foor the other team in the 1st rd. You take your time and get the best possible deal even if it means having to wait for a prospect to develop.
We're not saying they should just give him away.

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02-21-2013, 01:21 AM
  #328
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I think Avs should do the trade that is most likely to help them in 3-5 years time. I don't care if it's a 19 guy in juniors, a 1st round pick in the summer or a 24 NHL player.

Avs like to trade for players that under team control for a while, so it would surprise me if the main target wasn't a guy on ELC or a second contract.

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02-21-2013, 01:21 AM
  #329
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Originally Posted by Ronaldo View Post
I 100% disagree, you don't trade a player like ROR just to make a push for a playoffs and be cannon fodder foor the other team in the 1st rd. You take your time and get the best possible deal even if it means having to wait for a prospect to develop.
Exactly. You don't get a playoff rental for Ryan O'Reilly, you get pieces that make you a better team in the long run. If the Avs try to force a trade now they'll most assuredly be settling for something less than their asking price, and their asking price is fair.

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02-21-2013, 01:24 AM
  #330
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Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
Exactly. You don't get a playoff rental for Ryan O'Reilly, you get pieces that make you a better team in the long run. If the Avs try to force a trade now they'll most assuredly be settling for something less than their asking price, and their asking price is fair.
No one was calling for a playoff rental...

More likely going for someone like MDZ instead of someone like Trouba.

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02-21-2013, 01:30 AM
  #331
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No one was calling for a playoff rental...

More likely going for someone like MDZ instead of someone like Trouba.
Well hey, if we can get a young-but-developed player great. It just depends I guess...if Sherman is asking for a top pick and a top prospect, it's hard to say which is the greater need. Yeah, we could sure use a top defender, but I'm concerned that we simply don't have a legit scoring forward prospect anywhere in the system. I think if you have to choose the more immediate need, it's for a top-six guy, and then you take the blueliner prospect who might need a couple more years.

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02-21-2013, 01:48 AM
  #332
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Hahaha Av-merican that zanon avatar is great

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02-21-2013, 01:52 AM
  #333
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Hahaha Av-merican that zanon avatar is great
I think you can Zanonize pretty much anything and it'll come out well. It's like bacon. Works with everything.

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02-21-2013, 01:54 AM
  #334
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Yeah, the 10 page letter thing is a bit of an exaggeration on AD's part, but that document is the one where they made the case for him being one of the top defensive forwards in the last 25 years and a bunch of other stuff.



His agency, with the full support of Camp O'Reilly. His father has not been involved in any of the negotiations.
Figured so. Spreadsheets are not very synergistic. The business part of almost anything generally screws up the enjoyable part. Unfortunate, but this is really starting to remind me of Peca.

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02-21-2013, 06:53 AM
  #335
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Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
This whole idea they tried to push of, "hey forget my first two seasons, just look at my last season" and then "hey forget Duchene's first two seasons, just look at his last season." is absolutely and utterly retarded.

I still can't believe they held out expecting that to work.
You're right. And people can bring in intangibles and character and everything, but the salary market still pays mostly based on offensive production. And despite Duchene producing at a much higher rate, they still thought so strongly about O'Reilly's performance and character that they offered him a $2,600,000 raise to pay him equal to Duchene, the #3 overall, expected offensive superstar of the franchise, after only 3 years. But O'Reilly isn't apparently happy enough with just being paid equally.

They offered an 18-year-old a job paying $900,000 per year, (over 1000% more than most americans twice his age make.) Then only 3 years later, they offer him a 289% raise, and he refuses to work for that. Have you ever been offered a 289% raise to basically keep doing your same job? Of those so fortunate to have received such a raise, how many of you felt insulted and turned it down?

If he'd have been drafted by that fantastic Red Wings organization he might have made < $70k for a couple seasons in the AHL and only now getting his chance to even start proving his NHL value.

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02-21-2013, 06:57 AM
  #336
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And the thing is nearly all comparables say that the Avs are way closer to reality than O'Reilly's demands are. Several days ago, someone brought up that his agents preferred comparing Evander Kane as a comparable contract instead of Duchene, since they felt Duchene signed below his market.

So at the time I thought to myself 'OK, let's look at it from their point of view and compare him to E. Kane's contract instead of Duchene'. So again, since the entire NHL pays primarily for production, I thought I'd do a very simple comparison to see if they had a strong point that $3.5M is an unfair offer in comparison to Kane's deal.

I used a highly simplistic formula, and I am sure Sherman uses something much more sophisticated, but a simple comparison should still get us into the right ballpark. I just compared points and goal production and scaled the salary linearly based on each of those comparisons. Then I weighted the goal-scaled salary twice as important as the point-scaled salary, and did a weighted average. I ran the numbers two ways, once on all 3 years, and once comparing only last season (2011/12). And I came up with $3.4 million one way, and $3.49 million the other way. I forget which was which but they turned out nearly the same both ways in this comparison. And don't forget that Kane's deal was for 6 years, buying out 2 UFA years, not just 1.

So on a goals/point comparable basis with E. Kane, over a 6-year deal, O'Reilly's comparable deal would be about $21M / 6YR. If they'd argue that Ryan should get an additional bump above that due character etc, I'd think OK I'll give you a bump for that, but then I'd remove the benefit of the doubt of using a linear scaling, since elite production is significantly more rare and harder to secure than average production, and so in the end you probably still end up somewhere in a similar range. Again, this is oversimplified, but it should give us a ballpark idea.

I think the $7M/2y is totally justified, and I think even their $17M /5 deal isn't that bad either. I personally would have come up to about $18-19M on a 5 year deal, and I said the same thing a long time ago, and still feel that way. But I can see them not wanting to even offer that until O'Reilly brought his request down to that range. It sounds like their requests stayed in that $4.5M+ for 5 years range, and that is so far above reality that I can see not wanting to egg them on by creeping the offer up until they came WAY down. But obviously the time for all of those kind of negotiations is long past.

I compared him to Kane instead of Duchene, and I still am of the opinion that he is out to lunch.

I'm not saying he doesn't have the potential to be as good as those guys. I'm just saying he hasn't produced enough yet to earn it. Avs obviously believe in drafting and trading for character players, but I agree they should still pay based on production.

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Old
02-21-2013, 07:02 AM
  #337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TatteredTornNFrayed View Post
And the thing is nearly all comparables say that the Avs are way closer to reality than O'Reilly's demands are. Several days ago, someone brought up that his agents preferred comparing Evander Kane as a comparable contract instead of Duchene, since they felt Duchene signed below his market.

So at the time I thought to myself 'OK, let's look at it from their point of view and compare him to E. Kane's contract instead of Duchene'. So again, since the entire NHL pays primarily for production, I thought I'd do a very simple comparison to see if they had a strong point that $3.5M is an unfair offer in comparison to Kane's deal.

I used a highly simplistic formula, and I am sure Sherman uses something much more sophisticated, but a simple comparison should still get us into the right ballpark. I just compared points and goal production and scaled the salary linearly based on each of those comparisons. Then I weighted the goal-scaled salary twice as important as the point-scaled salary, and did a weighted average. I ran the numbers two ways, once on all 3 years, and once comparing only last season (2011/12). And I came up with $3.4 million one way, and $3.49 million the other way. I forget which was which but they turned out nearly the same both ways in this comparison. And don't forget that Kane's deal was for 6 years, buying out 2 UFA years, not just 1.

So on a goals/point comparable basis with E. Kane, over a 6-year deal, O'Reilly's comparable deal would be about $21M / 6YR. If they'd argue that Ryan should get an additional bump above that due character etc, I'd think OK I'll give you a bump for that, but then I'd remove the benefit of the doubt of using a linear scaling, since elite production is significantly more rare and harder to secure than average production, and so in the end you probably still end up somewhere in a similar range. Again, this is oversimplified, but it should give us a ballpark idea.

I think the $7M/2y is totally justified, and I think even their $17M /5 deal isn't that bad either. I personally would have come up to about $18-19M on a 5 year deal, and I said the same thing a long time ago, and still feel that way. But I can see them not wanting to even offer that until O'Reilly brought his request down to that range. It sounds like their requests stayed in that $4.5M+ for 5 years range, and that is so far above reality that I can see not wanting to egg them on by creeping the offer up until they came WAY down. But obviously the time for all of those kind of negotiations is long past.

I compared him to Kane instead of Duchene, and I still am of the opinion that he is out to lunch.

I'm not saying he doesn't have the potential to be as good as those guys. I'm just saying he hasn't produced enough yet to earn it. Avs obviously believe in drafting and trading for character players, but I agree they should still pay based on production.
I think Avalanche made right decision on this. I don't think It's worth paying 4,5+ million and 5 years for O'Reilly. I know he's good, BUT he just doesn't deserve it YET. I think he will be worth that much, but he hasn't done enough to warrant contract like that YET. Paying someone just for potential is kinda stupid. We can't start giving every RFA huge deals. That's what gets you in trouble. He would have gotten paid after his 2 year bridge deal. Avalanche is not cheap when it comes to UFAs, Jones 4 million, PAP 4 million, Stastny 6,7 million or whatever. Just wait till you're old and produced enough and you will be paid.

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Old
02-21-2013, 07:18 AM
  #338
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Think the Blues would do ROR for Tarasenko???

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02-21-2013, 07:36 AM
  #339
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Think the Blues would do ROR for Tarasenko???
Maybe if we literally threw Olver in...

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02-21-2013, 07:55 AM
  #340
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Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
I am by no means a Wilson fan, but he did look pretty decent for the most part this year. He wasn't our best defender though, that was clearly EJ.

Same story as always though for Wilson. Looks fairly good early, gets hurt, and will probably look like crap the rest of the way.
Yep , it's sad but it does look this way again this year . Kinda hard to judge a player under these conditions . That's probably why fans dont agree , you dont find many fans in the middle , we either like him or hate him .

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Originally Posted by Avs_19 View Post
This was recently? He said something similar on the night they first said we're looking to trade him.

Sens could be a good trade partner but they have no defensemen who can help us right away. Someone like Zibanejad or Silfverberg can come in and help our offense but the main target should be a top four defenseman.
Well pretty much each time that i watched TSN , they said that Ottawa are very interested and that they will make a big push to get Radar. They always talked like they are the favorite .

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02-21-2013, 08:24 AM
  #341
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Yep , it's sad but it does look this way again this year . Kinda hard to judge a player under these conditions . That's probably why fans dont agree , you dont find many fans in the middle , we either like him or hate him .



Well pretty much each time that i watched TSN , they said that Ottawa are very interested and that they will make a big push to get Radar. They always talked like they are the favorite .
Well it is a Canadian sports show. I personally think the Rangers are still the favourites if O'Reilly is moved by the deadline. If the O'Reilly situation drags on to the draft than I can see that changing quickly.

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02-21-2013, 08:26 AM
  #342
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Hahaha Av-merican that zanon avatar is great
ZANDOZ!

*ah jeez I can't believe I actually recognized it so quickly*

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02-21-2013, 08:36 AM
  #343
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Hey Ranger guys, question for you regarding Marc Staal and his availability let's say instead of a guy like MDZ.

What are your thoughts on this?

Drastic difference in value. Staal VS MDZ.

ROR + wouldn't cut it, despite how badly I want him here.

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02-21-2013, 08:39 AM
  #344
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ZANDOZ!

*ah jeez I can't believe I actually recognized it so quickly*
Nothing to be ashamed of my friend, Sean Connery's incredible legs in those knee-boots and panties are emblazoned upon the minds of many a man.

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02-21-2013, 09:26 AM
  #345
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Had a dream last night that it was OReilly and Elliott for Turris, Wiercioch and their 1st I believe might have been a prospect in there as well.

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02-21-2013, 09:30 AM
  #346
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Drastic difference in value. Staal VS MDZ.

ROR + wouldn't cut it, despite how badly I want him here.
Thanks for your response.

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02-21-2013, 10:42 AM
  #347
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Nothing to be ashamed of my friend, Sean Connery's incredible legs in those knee-boots and panties are emblazoned upon the minds of many a man.
Shoot me now please!

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02-21-2013, 10:45 AM
  #348
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So, to get back on track a bit here, I really believe that there are a lot of teams out there that are underestimating RoR and the eventual return that is going to be coming our way.

When you look at a guy like Mike Richards, who plays a similar game and had similar success at the same age and what he was traded for, I think it's ridiculous to assume that other teams will be able to get RoR for spare parts or players they wouldn't mind getting rid of.

Mike Richards returned from LA - Brayden Schenn (best prospect in the game at the time), Wayne Simmonds and a 2nd round pick.

Jeff Carter returned from CJB - Jacub Voracek (7th overall pick in 2007), 8th overall pick in 2011 (Sean Couturier) *and the Jackets knew it was going to be a top 10 pick and a 3rd round pick (Nick Cousins).

So OBVIOUSLY, RoR isn't as proven as either of those guys but both Carter and Richards were only producing at around a 45 point pace when they were 21 years old as well. So the fact that he isn't as proven does affect the value but not to the extent that a lot of people think, in my opinion especially when you factor in the fact that there is a premium for good 2-way centermen in the league right now.

Just trying to put things in perspective a little it.

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02-21-2013, 10:58 AM
  #349
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Silfverberg(sp) might work, dont think Mika Z is an option, he's their golden boy.

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Old
02-21-2013, 11:56 AM
  #350
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Hahaha Av-merican that zanon avatar is great
More disturbing than great

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Silfverberg(sp) might work, dont think Mika Z is an option, he's their golden boy.
Silfverberg is the better player of the two and Mika now has a pretty lenghty concussion history.

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