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Old
02-21-2013, 12:20 AM
  #76
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Apparently couturier has no value at all.

I remember seeing once that someone on here once said that the flyers fans over rate their players, and I saw someone said that couturier doesn't have as much value as flyers fans think, so I'm going to make those my opinions.

Flyers fans always say they don't want to trade him and he only had 27 points last year! NO VALUE!!!!!!

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02-21-2013, 12:41 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
He's getting more even strength ice time as Voracek, and about the same as Simmonds and B. Schenn. I understand that he's getting stupid hard defensive minutes and not getting great linemates, but at the same time he's had one of Read or Voracek on his wing 90% of the time, both of whom are having great offensive seasons so far. Couturier only has 3 points at even strength in 15 games. He's got a league average on-ice shooting percentage and not a horridly low personal shooting percentage. And it's not as though he isn't getting time on the PP.

I just don't see it, when I watch him play in the offensive zone. I would love to be proven wrong, I think Couturier's done a really great job as a young player playing in a defensive role for an offensively-oriented team and system. But I don't see lots of offensive upside. 60 points is absolutely a distinct possibility. But I don't see 80, like several people seem to think.

Brandon Sutter, for example, plays just as hard minutes as Couturier does, and has since he was Couturier's age while putting up decent 3rd line numbers. No one expects 70 points out of him, right?

Also, in regards to the OEL/Pietrangelo that you turned down, neither of those teams think twice before turning them down.
Good analysis, but the bolded bothers me.

Brandon Sutter's best PPG in the WHL was 0.81, and that was in his post-draft year.

Couturier put up 1.66 in his draft year (played in the QMJHL).

Here's a pretty good quote from Bill Meltzer (Flyers writer) about Ryan O'Reilly (and I think it fits this topic well):

"My rule of thumb when it comes to pre-NHL production is that offensive dominance at lower levels is far from a guarantee of high-level NHL offensive production, but the LACK of true offensive dominance at the lower levels is usually a pretty good indication that the player will not become a year-in-and-year-old offensive force in the NHL."

Some people compare Couturier's upside to players who had vastly inferior pedigree's compared to his. That's my gripe.

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02-21-2013, 12:42 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by TylerSVT View Post
Giordano for Couturier + 2nd
Lol.

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02-21-2013, 12:52 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Roo Mad Bro View Post
Good analysis, but the bolded bothers me.

Brandon Sutter's best PPG in the WHL was 0.81, and that was in his post-draft year.

Couturier put up 1.66 in his draft year (played in the QMJHL).

Here's a pretty good quote from Bill Meltzer (Flyers writer) about Ryan O'Reilly (and I think it fits this topic well):

"My rule of thumb when it comes to pre-NHL production is that offensive dominance at lower levels is far from a guarantee of high-level NHL offensive production, but the LACK of true offensive dominance at the lower levels is usually a pretty good indication that the player will not become a year-in-and-year-old offensive force in the NHL."

Some people compare Couturier's upside to players who had vastly inferior pedigree's compared to his. That's my gripe.
Stop using actual game analysis and real knowledge of a players potential and history, it goes against the "consensus opinion" mode of operations here at hfboards.

Always remember: Your young drafted player will never get better. He had a tremendous amount of value before he ever played an nhl game, but then he did and wasn't a superstar, therefore he's always going to be what he is now.

Disclaimer: this does not apply to young players on my team, just the ones on yours.

Also: watch him play? Why do that? I have stats bro.

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02-21-2013, 02:07 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Roo Mad Bro View Post
Good analysis, but the bolded bothers me.

Brandon Sutter's best PPG in the WHL was 0.81, and that was in his post-draft year.

Couturier put up 1.66 in his draft year (played in the QMJHL).

Here's a pretty good quote from Bill Meltzer (Flyers writer) about Ryan O'Reilly (and I think it fits this topic well):

"My rule of thumb when it comes to pre-NHL production is that offensive dominance at lower levels is far from a guarantee of high-level NHL offensive production, but the LACK of true offensive dominance at the lower levels is usually a pretty good indication that the player will not become a year-in-and-year-old offensive force in the NHL."

Some people compare Couturier's upside to players who had vastly inferior pedigree's compared to his. That's my gripe.
Of course Couturier has more offensive upside than Brandon Sutter, and I certainly agree with the quote and your general point. I'm not saying that Couturier's upside is Brandon Sutter.

All I'm saying is that some people are blinded by his being in the NHL at such a young age. For example, Ryan Strome. Everyone's all over the Islanders for picking him over Couturier. But by your measure, which I agree with, he's got higher offensive potential than Couturier, despite Couturier's having proven to be a capable NHL player. Personally, I'd still take Couturier over Strome, simply because Couturier is proven to be a capable NHLer. But, last season everyone was saying the Panthers made a huge mistake picking Huberdeau (who's every Canadian's favorite whipping boy in international competition) over Couturier, but now Huberdeau's showing a ton of offense at the NHL level, scoring at an elite level at even strength, and being their 2nd leading scorer despite playing the 8th most even strength ice time of Panthers forwards and playing almost exclusively with Peter Mueller and Drew Shore. Yes, he's starting more often than not in the offensive zone, but he's showing the possession numbers and them some expected of those zone starts, and he's been primarily matched up against opponent's top defensemen in more recent matchups.

So Huberdeau is showing more offensive potential than Couturier, but you'd still take Couturier over Huberdeau, right?

There isn't a right answer to that question at this point, everyone's going to pick differently (although I'm sure most people would pick Couturier still). But the point of that tiring paragraph was that you have to balance 'proven' and 'upside' when you're evaluating talent and value. Huberdeau has more upside but is less proven than Couturier. By what factor? Which is more important?

So it just tickles my pickle when people go on and on about proven NHL play with less upside, and then get mad when others don't agree with sky-high offensive production. Watching Huberdeau, I get really excited. Couturier, not so much. Yes, I'm aware of the differences in play styles and the differences in circumstances, but it's all personal preferences.

It's just a little concerning when Couturier can't put up more than 2 goals and a secondary assist in 15 games against the Brian Lee-Keith Aulie/Christian Ehrhoff-Alexander Sulzer/Adam Larsson-Mark Fayne/Mark Streit-Joe Finley pairings of the world. I guess that's my point here.

Again, I don't have a bone to pick with Couturier. He's an elite young talent with sky-high value. I just don't see huge offensive upside.

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02-21-2013, 03:25 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by glenbuis View Post
What kind of surgury did Bogosian have on his wrist?
Bogosian had a wrist injury that has plagued him since juniors and would flair up from time to time. it really impacted his 2nd season in the NHL (although he played through the pain) and he battled it on and off all last year missing a stretch of games. it was finally picked up in an MRI in July and diagnosed as a "chronic ligament tear". Apparently, the good news is once you recover from this type of proceedure there is pretty much zero chance you have the same issue with that wrist.

It is good news because he is Winnipeg's top defensive defensman and also puts up very solid offensive numbers especially 5v5 pp/60 despite high D zone starts and being used on our shut down pairing. he would be the hardest asset to acquire from Winnipeg IMO.


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02-21-2013, 04:02 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
Apparently couturier has no value at all.

I remember seeing once that someone on here once said that the flyers fans over rate their players, and I saw someone said that couturier doesn't have as much value as flyers fans think, so I'm going to make those my opinions.

Flyers fans always say they don't want to trade him and he only had 27 points last year! NO VALUE!!!!!!
Where is anyone saying this?

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02-21-2013, 05:02 AM
  #83
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Where is anyone saying this?
He seems to believe hyperbole makes him look smart.

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02-21-2013, 05:03 AM
  #84
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Where is anyone saying this?
Nobody but those saying he's worth a top pairing Dman are on crack.

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02-21-2013, 05:09 AM
  #85
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I see him topping out as a ~50-55 point #2C - a more offensive Hanzal.

Gormley + 1st is fair value, I think.

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02-21-2013, 06:17 AM
  #86
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I would absolutely love to have him in our fold in St. Louis, but it is a pipe dream for anyone I think. Flyers would be crazy to let him go. High ceiling you have a notch below Yzerman. Low ceiling you have an excellent 2-way 40-50 point guy. At this point, I wouldn't move him, unless it was for Tarasenko type top 20 prospect in the game. If he fetches you a #1 line player or defender with a decent contract, then you better win a cup. It would be as regretful as the Blues trading away Rod Brind A'mour for Ron Sutter.

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02-21-2013, 06:38 AM
  #87
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So...what you are saying is hes more likely to fill out as a 2C but could potentially lock down the role hes been playing all season, and his value is only that of a 3C? I think it's fairly obvious that almost every single Flyers proposal on this board he gets mentioned along with B Schenn. Outside of G those are our two highest valued players, and I think most would argue Couturier is significantly more valued then Schenn.

This was simply a thread to gauge value, to see what could potentially be on the table if our 2nd most valuable asset were on the table. I wasn't really sure what to expect however so far most responses are significantly underwhelming. The Flyers by no means HAVE to or SHOULD move Couturier. I'm questioning what they COULD get if they CHOSE to.
yeah but the way the thread was put up it seems like your moving an established player. hes not. kid cant even get in a bar yet and his careers all mapped out on these boards. ill admit ive done it too (it involves a parade on broad st) but theres alot of room for variable. if he never gets a bit better hes still a solid 3c with an ability to lock down some of the leagues best scorers. thats the value he moves at now if the flyers try to move him. its a short sell.

in all honesty i think cooter has already gotten better since last season ended. what wed be moving on is the potential value he has and in terms of that he hasnt shown the 1st sign of slowing in his development. given time i think hell be what everyone thought he was a year and a half ago :the consesus best player in his draft year, but we wont even be in a position to make that call (and thus get a real gauge of his value) until hes out of his elc.

hes a stud prospect the flyers arent interested in moving and im pretty content to let things stay that way. if and when he becomes an elite player well pay him a boatload of money to keep putting on orange and black. or a team will overpay to take him off our hands but untill then i dont see the flyers getting better by moving him

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02-21-2013, 07:20 AM
  #88
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He's not Giroux elite in terms of offensive upside, but he plays a lot the way Mike Richards did in the offensive zone plus some size to boot. His work down low is physical and skilled. If he can move around in tight spaces and make those passes, offense will come.

If you don't think so, that's on you.

The only real question is playing time and opportunity.
Is he not getting the opportunity right now? More even strength TOI, more PP TOI, better line mates, etc. So what's his excuse for looking so poor offensively for the most part of this season? He has 4 ES points all year round -- including 1 garbage goal (the other being a deflection) and 2 secondary assists, what am I supposed to be impressed about there?

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No, but it's easier to project a player having good offensive output if the put up big numbers in junior (which Couturier did).
And that doesn't necessarily mean that he'll be a big point producer in the NHL. Sam Gagner and Derick Brassard as two players who put up big numbers at the junior level and aren't stars. They also had the draft pedigree and hype behind them as well.

Actually agree though. ~60 points is what I think he'll be putting up most years.

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in all honesty i think cooter has already gotten better since last season ended. what wed be moving on is the potential value he has and in terms of that he hasnt shown the 1st sign of slowing in his development. given time i think hell be what everyone thought he was a year and a half ago :the consesus best player in his draft year, but we wont even be in a position to make that call (and thus get a real gauge of his value) until hes out of his elc.
At one point Adam Larsson was supposed to go 1st overall IIRC. Last year, Grigorenko and Galchenyuk (again, IIRC). That happens all the time, especially when the first overall pick isn't a Sidney Crosby or in his draft year, John Tavares. Why people continually use this I'll never know. Do people think any of the first 4 teams who drafted would trade their players for Couturier? Has anyone watched was Larsson and Huberdeau -- or even Hamilton for that matter -- are doing right now in the NHL?

Not to mention that a year and a half ago he was the 8th overall draft pick, not the consensus #1 overall pick.


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02-21-2013, 07:32 AM
  #89
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
Of course Couturier has more offensive upside than Brandon Sutter, and I certainly agree with the quote and your general point. I'm not saying that Couturier's upside is Brandon Sutter.
Everyone's a bust until proven not a bust, particularly if they play for the Flyers. vanRiemsdyk, BSchenn, Couturier, Richards, Carter. You can even tack on Giroux since everyone said his offensive potential was going to hit a max despite the incredible flashes from his early NHL career.

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All I'm saying is that some people are blinded by his being in the NHL at such a young age.
And some people are blinded just because they want to be blinded/ignore the actuality of the situation.

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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
For example, Ryan Strome. Everyone's all over the Islanders for picking him over Couturier. But by your measure, which I agree with, he's got higher offensive potential than Couturier, despite Couturier's having proven to be a capable NHL player. Personally, I'd still take Couturier over Strome, simply because Couturier is proven to be a capable NHLer.
How does that put him over Couturier by Roo Mad Bro's explanation? Couturier out produced Strome.

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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
But, last season everyone was saying the Panthers made a huge mistake picking Huberdeau (who's every Canadian's favorite whipping boy in international competition) over Couturier, but now Huberdeau's showing a ton of offense at the NHL level, scoring at an elite level at even strength, and being their 2nd leading scorer despite playing the 8th most even strength ice time of Panthers forwards and playing almost exclusively with Peter Mueller and Drew Shore. Yes, he's starting more often than not in the offensive zone, but he's showing the possession numbers and them some expected of those zone starts, and he's been primarily matched up against opponent's top defensemen in more recent matchups.
Who said that about Huberdeau > Couturier? It was pretty much suspected that Couturier was going to fall out of the top three at that point. It really depended on what type of player Florida wanted.

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So Huberdeau is showing more offensive potential than Couturier, but you'd still take Couturier over Huberdeau, right?
While producing at the CHL level is very important, it's hard to compare those points among peers.

Couturier out-produced Huberdeau at the CHL level, but they are very different players.

Huberdeau right now has 9 points in 15 games.
Couturier has 7 points in 16 games against tougher competition while playing all-world defense (he's easily the best defensive forward on the team.)

Are you sure that Couturier won't out produce Huberdeau WHILE playing all-world defense and sharing his minutes with Giroux and BSchenn? We're less than 20 games in. I mean, for god's sake, Vanek is still out-producing Crosby.

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02-21-2013, 07:40 AM
  #90
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Where is anyone saying this?
The part in the thread where a list of young defenseman was presented at which point several people clamined that they all have more value than Couturier.


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He seems to believe hyperbole makes him look smart.
He seems to think bringing up someone's intelligence makes him look smart.

See that works both ways. And it was sarcasm, not hyperbole.

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02-21-2013, 07:44 AM
  #91
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The part in the thread where a list of young defenseman was presented at which point several people clamined that they all have more value than Couturier.
Which of those d-men is Couturier worth as much?


Last edited by PayItForward: 02-21-2013 at 07:50 AM.
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02-21-2013, 07:51 AM
  #92
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Is he not getting the opportunity right now? More even strength TOI, more PP TOI, better line mates, etc. So what's his excuse for looking so poor offensively for the most part of this season? He has 4 ES points all year round -- including 1 garbage goal (the other being a deflection) and 2 secondary assists, what am I supposed to be impressed about there?
Couturier paced for 28 points in an 82 game season last year.

Couturier is currently pacing for 36 points in an 82 game season when the early scoring was particularly bad for the Flyers. Their offense is unnaturally low to start a season after a rough start and all of the injuries. His totals will end up better than a 36-point pace. I expect him to be around 40-45 point pace which isn't bad for a 20-year-old playing all of the hard defensive minutes behind Giroux and Schenn.

Seriously, how many of these under-20s you're comparing him to would've played so much of that 5-3 last night against Pittsburgh's best forwards? Him, Coburn, and Grossmann killed off most of it themselves.

How much out of your gas tank do you think that takes? Asking him to produce 60 points in that role at this age just isn't really an option.

As far as garbage goals go, you might as well start stripping people of their points now. Without garbage goals Voracek has half the points he currently has.

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02-21-2013, 07:54 AM
  #93
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Which of those d-men is Couturier worth as much?
Id say Fowler, Bogosian, Myers and Kulikov have equal to slightly more value.

And I love the inclusion of Morgan Reilly. Really quality stuff.

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02-21-2013, 08:07 AM
  #94
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Couturier paced for 28 points in an 82 game season last year.

Couturier is currently pacing for 36 points in an 82 game season when the early scoring was particularly bad for the Flyers. Their offense is unnaturally low to start a season after a rough start and all of the injuries. His totals will end up better than a 36-point pace. I expect him to be around 40-45 point pace which isn't bad for a 20-year-old playing all of the hard defensive minutes behind Giroux and Schenn.

Seriously, how many of these under-20s you're comparing him to would've played so much of that 5-3 last night against Pittsburgh's best forwards? Him, Coburn, and Grossmann killed off most of it themselves.

How much out of your gas tank do you think that takes? Asking him to produce 60 points in that role at this age just isn't really an option.

As far as garbage goals go, you might as well start stripping people of their points now. Without garbage goals Voracek has half the points he currently has.
Couturier does actually need to be better offensively if people are going to deem him a future "superstar", especially 5-on-5. Last year he had little PP time, less TOI, worse line mates. He doesn't have those excuses this year, so I don't see how he hasn't had the opportunity, which is what you said.

And I don't see how Couturier playing on a 5-on-3 at this stage makes him a better player in the future than other players in his draft class. He's a different player than them.

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Id say Fowler, Bogosian, Myers and Kulikov have equal to slightly more value.

And I love the inclusion of Morgan Reilly. Really quality stuff.
Fowler and Bogosian are top pairing d-men on their respective teams... arguably their team's best d-men. How is Couturier worth one of them? What has he done to be worth a young top pairing d-man who still has room to grow?

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02-21-2013, 08:16 AM
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Couturier does actually need to be better offensively if people are going to deem him a future "superstar", especially 5-on-5. Last year he had little PP time, less TOI, worse line mates. He doesn't have those excuses this year, so I don't see how he hasn't had the opportunity, which is what you said.
Who called Couturier a superstar?

I doubt Couturier can even hit PPG stuck behind Giroux and Schenn.

You know what I think? I think people immediately assume Flyers' fans believe Couturier is a superstar when they compare him to his draft class, but in reality everyone is overrating his draft class, as isn't exactly unexpected around here, by thinking he's got a bunch of kids that are guaranteed to pace for 85-90 points per season to compete against.

Couturier's offensive potential is in the 60-70 range. His offensive floor, at bust level really, is in the 45-50 range. Most of these kids' offensive potential from his draft class are right there too.

Couturier will do all of that with all-world defensive play.

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And I don't see how Couturier playing on a 5-on-3 at this stage makes him a better player in the future than other players in his draft class. He's a different player than them.
You don't see how being as offensively talented as someone while being significantly stronger defensively makes him a better potential player?

Is defense not important to hockey anymore?

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02-21-2013, 08:22 AM
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Who called Couturier a superstar?

I doubt Couturier can even hit PPG stuck behind Giroux and Schenn.

You know what I think? I think people immediately assume Flyers' fans believe Couturier is a superstar when they compare him to his draft class, but in reality everyone is overrating his draft class, as isn't exactly unexpected around here, by thinking he's got a bunch of kids that are guaranteed to pace for 85-90 points per season to compete against.

Couturier's offensive potential is in the 60-70 range. His offensive floor, at bust level really, is in the 45-50 range. Most of these kids' offensive potential from his draft class are right there too.

Couturier will do all of that with all-world defensive play.



You don't see how being as offensively talented as someone while being significantly stronger defensively makes him a better potential player?

Is defense not important to hockey anymore?


I know one thing. Malkin would love to see him move out west Malkin lost his cool again last night because of Couts. Love it.

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02-21-2013, 08:26 AM
  #97
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Who called Couturier a superstar?

I doubt Couturier can even hit PPG stuck behind Giroux and Schenn.

You know what I think? I think people immediately assume Flyers' fans believe Couturier is a superstar when they compare him to his draft class, but in reality everyone is overrating his draft class, as isn't exactly unexpected around here, by thinking he's got a bunch of kids that are guaranteed to pace for 85-90 points per season to compete against.

Couturier's offensive potential is in the 60-70 range. His offensive floor, at bust level really, is in the 45-50 range. Most of these kids' offensive potential from his draft class are right there too.

Couturier will do all of that with all-world defensive play.
Lol, I'm not assuming Flyer fans are calling him a future superstar as I've seen them say it many times.

Quote:
You don't see how being as offensively talented as someone while being significantly stronger defensively makes him a better potential player?

Is defense not important to hockey anymore?
I don't think Couturier is offensively talented as them, that's the point. I think RNH and Huberdeau have higher offensive ceilings. I also think RNH can be a good defensive forward.

That's like saying Jordan Staal is a better player than Backstrom because he came in and played a ton of SH TOI in his rookie and sophomore seasons.

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02-21-2013, 08:34 AM
  #98
CS
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Lol, I'm not assuming Flyer fans are calling him a future superstar as I've seen them say it many times.
Then they are wrong. There are maybe 5-8 superstars in this league currently.

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Originally Posted by PayItForward View Post
I don't think Couturier is offensively talented as them, that's the point. I think RNH and Huberdeau have higher offensive ceilings. I also think RNH can be a good defensive forward.

That's like saying Jordan Staal is a better player than Backstrom because he came in and played a ton of SH TOI in his rookie and sophomore seasons.
That can be your opinion. RNH is insane, almost Giroux-esque in some regards. Even then, I wouldn't consider Giroux a 90-point player. I'd consider him a PPG player if not a little better.

Likewise, I think Huberdea, Strome, and Couturier have PPG ceilings, but like Richards and Carter and so many others, who knows how consistent that is.

You overrate his draft class, just like everyone else.

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02-21-2013, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
Who called Couturier a superstar?

I doubt Couturier can even hit PPG stuck behind Giroux and Schenn.

You know what I think? I think people immediately assume Flyers' fans believe Couturier is a superstar when they compare him to his draft class, but in reality everyone is overrating his draft class, as isn't exactly unexpected around here, by thinking he's got a bunch of kids that are guaranteed to pace for 85-90 points per season to compete against.

Couturier's offensive potential is in the 60-70 range. His offensive floor, at bust level really, is in the 45-50 range. Most of these kids' offensive potential from his draft class are right there too.

Couturier will do all of that with all-world defensive play.
This post pretty much says what I think as well.

Couturier has just as much offensive upside as others in his draft class, but if he doesn't reach his offensive potential, he's still going to be a great defensive forward so his bust potential is less than some of the other guys in his draft class. Couturier doesn't have to score to be effective on the ice. He's exactly what the Flyers need. I'm not sure if he'll ever see a 70 point season with the way the Flyers are currently constructed because he lacks the opportunities to get the maximum offensive zone starts, top PP and offensive linemates. But, 50 points I think will be the norm for him with the potential to fill in as a 1C when there are injuries.

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02-21-2013, 10:02 AM
  #100
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It's just a little concerning when Couturier can't put up more than 2 goals and a secondary assist in 15 games against the Brian Lee-Keith Aulie/Christian Ehrhoff-Alexander Sulzer/Adam Larsson-Mark Fayne/Mark Streit-Joe Finley pairings of the world. I guess that's my point here.
I 100% agree with the point you're trying to make, but just so you're aware, Mark Fayne and Adam Larsson are two of the Devils top 3 defensemen along with Andy Greene, and they're in a much better defensive bracket than those other three pairings

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