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Jets interested in O'Reilly? UPDATE: CGY Offer sheet COL matches

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Old
02-21-2013, 12:30 PM
  #51
jetkarma
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Quote:
Originally Posted by almostawake View Post
Err, you do know that the contract they've offered RoR is literally identical to the one Duchene has right now?
Duchene is primed to demand a really big contract , pair that with Stastny and while one may not agree with Colorado's position , you should be able to see their point . Three very big contract numbers for three centers , then you add some of their other young players that were drafted very high ... Colorado isn't going to pay that , imo.

I am aware.

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02-21-2013, 12:39 PM
  #52
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very neat logo, libertyhaze


regarding the trade, I am very neutral on this. I still think Burmistrov's development was hampered and his upside is still pretty big (plus, dem stick handling skills!)

but on the other hand, as many have said, ROR is exactly what Chevy wants in a player. And, he's already putting up points - inflated by teammates or not.

The question would boil down to; what is fair and what would be worth sacrificing on our own end to obtain that player

I sort of hope it happens since ROR also has a ton of upside (he's still young too) but at the same time, I sorta don't since I really want to see a player like Burmy develop more before turning the page. Thus, neutrality.

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02-21-2013, 12:47 PM
  #53
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Ryan O'Reilly
Center
Born Feb 7 1991 -- Clinton, ONT
Height 6.00 -- Weight 205 -- Shoots L

Selected by Colorado Avalanche round 2 #33 overall 2009 NHL Entry Draft

NHL Totals - 236gp , 39g, 68a, 107pts

Is he worth what it would cost?

Now if the Jets were able to trade Wellwood and/ or Olli for a young guy like this.....

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02-21-2013, 12:50 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbcwpg View Post
Ryan O'Reilly
Center
Born Feb 7 1991 -- Clinton, ONT
Height 6.00 -- Weight 205 -- Shoots L

Selected by Colorado Avalanche round 2 #33 overall 2009 NHL Entry Draft

NHL Totals - 236gp , 39g, 68a, 107pts

Is he worth what it would cost?

Now if the Jets were able to trade Wellwood and/ or Olli for a young guy like this.....
Keep dreamin lol

Colorado has to do something with him...

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02-21-2013, 12:52 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbcwpg View Post
Ryan O'Reilly
Center
Born Feb 7 1991 -- Clinton, ONT
Height 6.00 -- Weight 205 -- Shoots L

Selected by Colorado Avalanche round 2 #33 overall 2009 NHL Entry Draft

NHL Totals - 236gp , 39g, 68a, 107pts

Is he worth what it would cost?

Now if the Jets were able to trade Wellwood and/ or Olli for a young guy like this.....
People are getting awfully worked up about an 18 goal scorer.

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02-21-2013, 12:53 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbcwpg View Post
Ryan O'Reilly
Center
Born Feb 7 1991 -- Clinton, ONT
Height 6.00 -- Weight 205 -- Shoots L

Selected by Colorado Avalanche round 2 #33 overall 2009 NHL Entry Draft

NHL Totals - 236gp , 39g, 68a, 107pts

Is he worth what it would cost?

Now if the Jets were able to trade Wellwood and/ or Olli for a young guy like this.....
Why not Grant Clitsome as the core piece?

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02-21-2013, 12:56 PM
  #57
jetkarma
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Originally Posted by PerryPooley View Post
People are getting awfully worked up about an 18 goal scorer.
To bad that goal scoring is the only thing ROR brings to the game.

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02-21-2013, 12:57 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by PerryPooley View Post
People are getting awfully worked up about an 18 goal scorer.
Spoiler alert: when talking about a young Selke nominated center, goal totals are not the be all end all. I'd trade Little and Postma for him.

Don't really think that we're ready as a team to trade our young guys (Burmistrov) even if it is a young guy coming back

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02-21-2013, 12:59 PM
  #59
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In all honesty, I believe the trade talks for O'Reilly will heat up, but amount to nothing. Don't see him being moved until Draft Day.

Colorado will likely be picking in the top 10 and could use O'Reilly along with their 1st to move up or just to acquire a player and another 1st from a team who misses out on their guy. Lots of possibilities if they hang onto him until the draft.

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02-21-2013, 01:00 PM
  #60
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I think I'd only trade Burmi for O'Reilly straight up. I think Burmistrov's output would be similar to O'Reilly and Little if he got the PP time.

I'd offer Little, any prospect outside of Trouba, Scheifele and Lowry, and a conditional pick depending on how many years we get O'Reilly signed for.

If they wanted a guy like Wheeler for O'Reilly I'd listen too.

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02-21-2013, 01:05 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
Spoiler alert: when talking about a young Selke nominated center, goal totals are not the be all end all. I'd trade Little and Postma for him.

Don't really think that we're ready as a team to trade our young guys (Burmistrov) even if it is a young guy coming back
Gah, dammit just read your spoiler! I wanted to wait until the end of the season to be possibly surprised

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02-21-2013, 01:12 PM
  #62
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Do people really think he is that good? I mean he has had 1 good year and played with Landeskog. Its alittle like expecting Little to score 30 again when he played with Kovalchuk that year. I'm not saying he is a bad player just i think its easy to overpay what you are going to get.

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02-21-2013, 01:16 PM
  #63
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I'd be very interested to see ROR vs Burmistrov stats relative to even strenght and PP toi.

I'm not really sure where to look it up but I suspect Burmi will have similar even strenght pts/60 as ROR.

If ROR was given more oppertunity, that could be why he has more points.

I just don't see why we'd pay a premium for a player that's holding out.

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02-21-2013, 01:22 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
I'd be very interested to see ROR vs Burmistrov stats relative to even strenght and PP toi.

I'm not really sure where to look it up but I suspect Burmi will have similar even strenght pts/60 as ROR.

If ROR was given more oppertunity, that could be why he has more points.

I just don't see why we'd pay a premium for a player that's holding out.
This sounds like a job for Garrett9 (as he is rushing to the phone booth to put on his super hero stat outfit )

But yes it would be interesting to compare ROR, Little and Burmi based on TOI, compeition and the corsi stuff....gah I may have to admit I am getting interested and more and more intrigued in the advanced stats that Garret puts up

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02-21-2013, 01:23 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by meedle View Post
Do people really think he is that good? I mean he has had 1 good year and played with Landeskog. Its alittle like expecting Little to score 30 again when he played with Kovalchuk that year. I'm not saying he is a bad player just i think its easy to overpay what you are going to get.
40-60 pt player good enough defensively to get top 4 nominations in selke...

you don't get nominated for the selke just because your happened to have good linemates.


not to mention all of this is a 21 yearold..

Regardles off why it happened, everyones going to pay a lot for that.

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02-21-2013, 01:24 PM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
Spoiler alert: when talking about a young Selke nominated center, goal totals are not the be all end all. I'd trade Little and Postma for him.

Don't really think that we're ready as a team to trade our young guys (Burmistrov) even if it is a young guy coming back
Young guy for young guy? The right young guy coming this way? I think we are ready.

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02-21-2013, 01:42 PM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
I'd be very interested to see ROR vs Burmistrov stats relative to even strenght and PP toi.

I'm not really sure where to look it up but I suspect Burmi will have similar even strenght pts/60 as ROR.

If ROR was given more oppertunity, that could be why he has more points.

I just don't see why we'd pay a premium for a player that's holding out.
Naw, way off.

RoR 2011-2012

ES: 1.85
PP: 4.71

Burmistrov 2011-2012

ES: 1.39
PP: 1.94

Burmistrov 2012-2013

ES: 1.17

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02-21-2013, 01:50 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Ziggy66 View Post
This sounds like a job for Garrett9 (as he is rushing to the phone booth to put on his super hero stat outfit )

But yes it would be interesting to compare ROR, Little and Burmi based on TOI, compeition and the corsi stuff....gah I may have to admit I am getting interested and more and more intrigued in the advanced stats that Garret puts up
well i nlou of garrett i did osme peaking.

now i may just be an understudy but ROR last year looks like the better player.

ROR started on th o zone less, faced tougher competition, and beat them, scored at a considerably higher rate per 60, as well as had a better penalty differntial then burmi.

now i don't have my corsi numbers totally strait, as in which one means which, but ROR's were higher, and positive across the board compared to burmis (negative aside from corsi-rel and corsi on).

ROR had a lower on ice sh% then burmi, but got stronger goaltending, but burmi still benefited more from the luck numbers (combined better on ice shot % and on ice save %).

figuring that out you end up with 1.32 points per 60 for burmi, and 1.75 points per 60 for ROR.


ROR had 230+ more ES minutes then burmi as well, so the differnce might not be as high as it seems.

True, ROR had better linemates (primarily Lando and Hejduk) but he didn't have an inflated secondary assist total, meaning he wasn't getting "lucky" points.

Usage is interesting as ROR had 188.95 minute son hte poerplay, 1st for centers on his team, while burmi had only 92, 5th for centers on his team.

PK wise though[B] ROR[/B ]had 93 minutes, where's burmi had 134, so burmi was used much more defensively.

On the power play minute burmi did have, he as average luck wise (1000) but had 1.95 points per 60

ROR on the other hand had 4.76 Points per 60 while having better luck (1047 but i don't know how the luck stat, pdo, works for PP/PK time or if its still relevent)


Sorry i don't have nice tables....

In short it looks like ROR was a better player across the board, but he also got better opportunities powerplay wise, but worse opportunities 5v5. But he is not looking better just because of those opportunities. He got harder minutes then burmi and produces more 5v5. He produces more against tougher competition at even strength then burmi does, and also produces more per minute on the power play then burmi does.

he was pretty much a better player in every measurable way.

If i could remember BB tables i'd do it but since i can't you have to tak emy word for it, or check out behidnthenet.ca

[edit] Some of this post has been edited


Last edited by Grind: 02-21-2013 at 01:54 PM. Reason: bold edited
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02-21-2013, 01:51 PM
  #69
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Honestly, I'd just offer sheet him.

A first and a third? Absolutely. Either way, it's good. If Colorado matches they save face with Duchene and Lando. If they don't they get a 1st and 3rd in a deep draft.

We get a player at a fair price. I know GM's loathe offer sheets but it might be a good solution.. I wouldn't want to trade Burmistrov. I'd do Little (as much as I like him) and Postma for sure.

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02-21-2013, 01:55 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Brogosian View Post
Honestly, I'd just offer sheet him.

A first and a third? Absolutely. Either way, it's good. If Colorado matches they save face with Duchene and Lando. If they don't they get a 1st and 3rd in a deep draft.

We get a player at a fair price. I know GM's loathe offer sheets but it might be a good solution.. I wouldn't want to trade Burmistrov. I'd do Little (as much as I like him) and Postma for sure.
I don't think an offer makes sense for the jets. We are going to be picking high.

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02-21-2013, 02:10 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Grind View Post
well i nlou of garrett i did osme peaking.

now i may just be an understudy but ROR last year looks like the better player.

ROR started on th o zone less, faced tougher competition, and beat them, scored at a considerably higher rate per 60, as well as had a better penalty differntial then burmi.

now i don't have my corsi numbers totally strait, as in which one means which, but ROR's were higher, and positive across the board compared to burmis (negative aside from corsi-rel and corsi on).

ROR had a lower on ice sh% then burmi, but got stronger goaltending, but burmi still benefited more from the luck numbers (combined better on ice shot % and on ice save %).

figuring that out you end up with 1.32 points per 60 for burmi, and 1.75 points per 60 for ROR.


ROR had 230+ more ES minutes then burmi as well, so the differnce might not be as high as it seems.

True, ROR had better linemates (primarily Lando and Hejduk) but he didn't have an inflated secondary assist total, meaning he wasn't getting "lucky" points.

Usage is interesting as ROR had 188.95 minute son hte poerplay, 1st for centers on his team, while burmi had only 92, 5th for centers on his team.

PK wise though[B] ROR[/B ]had 93 minutes, where's burmi had 134, so burmi was used much more defensively.

On the power play minute burmi did have, he as average luck wise (1000) but had 1.95 points per 60

ROR on the other hand had 4.76 Points per 60 while having better luck (1047 but i don't know how the luck stat, pdo, works for PP/PK time or if its still relevent)


Sorry i don't have nice tables....

In short it looks like ROR was a better player across the board, but he also got better opportunities powerplay wise, but worse opportunities 5v5. But he is not looking better just because of those opportunities. He got harder minutes then burmi and produces more 5v5. He produces more against tougher competition at even strength then burmi does, and also produces more per minute on the power play then burmi does.

he was pretty much a better player in every measurable way.

If i could remember BB tables i'd do it but since i can't you have to tak emy word for it, or check out behidnthenet.ca

[edit] Some of this post has been edited
thanks for the numbers! great job

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02-21-2013, 02:13 PM
  #72
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Young guy for young guy? The right young guy coming this way? I think we are ready.
I'd just perfer to give up the older guy if we could. I'm pretty high on Burmi though

Also I heard earlier in this thread that Ror was a top 5 selke candidate but he finished 14th not top 5

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02-21-2013, 02:14 PM
  #73
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Honestly, I'd just offer sheet him.

A first and a third? Absolutely. Either way, it's good. If Colorado matches they save face with Duchene and Lando. If they don't they get a 1st and 3rd in a deep draft.

We get a player at a fair price. I know GM's loathe offer sheets but it might be a good solution.. I wouldn't want to trade Burmistrov. I'd do Little (as much as I like him) and Postma for sure.
But Colorado will match. They won't let him go for a 1st and a 3rd. So what's the point of doing the offer sheet then and upsetting Avs management?

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02-21-2013, 02:27 PM
  #74
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Who says ROR would even sign the offer sheet.
Full well knowing that the Avs would probably match.
His party says he has zero interest in playing there.
Try and hold out for a trade rather then risk having to play there for 4-5-6 years.

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02-21-2013, 02:33 PM
  #75
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But Colorado will match. They won't let him go for a 1st and a 3rd. So what's the point of doing the offer sheet then and upsetting Avs management?
Chances are we'll be in their division for years to come and both teams will be unlikely trade partners anyways...it might be worth a shot.

Offer them a reasonable trade and if they're trying to gouge back (asking for Kane, Bogo, etc), remind them of the threat of an offer sheet...see which one they pick.

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