The more this drags on (all of a couple of weeks now ), the more I think O'Reilly will return to the Avs.
I think the Avs are using this opportunity to see what ROR is worth on the market, and at the end of the day, they give him $4+ mill/yr for 5 or 6 yrs.
I think they'll look at the offers and say, nothing fits for us, but ROR is a valuable guy.
Another thing to remember though is ROR's season last year was his third, and THIS season is Burmi's third.
So comparing ROR's 3rd season with better linemates and PP time against Burmi's 2nd season with worse linemates and less PP time isn't apples to apples.
Another thing to remember though is ROR's season last year was his third, and THIS season is Burmi's third.
So comparing ROR's 3rd season with better linemates and PP time against Burmi's 2nd season with worse linemates and less PP time isn't apples to apples.
For apples to apple, Little and Olli would have to get hurt thus thrusting Burmi into a top like spot between Kane and Wheeler. I don't much care for them apples.
I am totally unwilling to trade a centre or a top six forward for ROR. It's a lateral move.
Burmi is going to be our own Selke candidate, so why trade him before we have a complete picture of what he can be. Little is already a proven commodity, and I would not trade him because of his great two way ability and his verasatility to play centre or RW.
Wheeler is for sure off the table.
Moves like this Make no sense what so ever for this team. I'd rather see what we have with our own guys before packaging them off.
All this enthusiasm about ROR makes no sense to me whatsoever, for the following reasons:
1)There is no evidence in his history that he is an elite C, but rather a high-50s, 1/2C tweener.
2)We already have a proven one of those in Little, and 2 more 'maybes' in Burmi and Scheifele.
3)There is broad agreement that what we actually lack is a true elite centre, a la Duchene, or better.
4)The hysteria that is building up around this kid means whoever trades for him will likely overpay. It will be a big price, bigger than Burmi...and our cupboards are not exactly well stocked. I don't mind paying a premium for a true star, but there are only two of those on the Avalanche and neither's initials are ROR.
Edit: Beat me to it, Sully. While you were writing your last line, I was using the same words in my opening line.
4.5 million a year for a guy who doesn't even have 40 goals in total in his NHL career
seems extreme. I can see why Colorado hasn't signed him yet.
I know centres score less in general but still seems he has more to prove to warrant
that kind of money.
I would not want to see Chevy overpay for ROR, and I think Little and Burmi would be doing exactly that. This thing will get figured out around the trade deadline when both sides' intransigence and GM's hysteria drives the price up big time and an over inflated deal is finally made, or the interested GM's give their collective heads a shake, and ROR re-signs with Colorado.
I am totally unwilling to trade a centre or a top six forward for ROR. It's a lateral move.
Burmi is going to be our own Selke candidate, so why trade him before we have a complete picture of what he can be. Little is already a proven commodity, and I would not trade him because of his great two way ability and his verasatility to play centre or RW.
Wheeler is for sure off the table.
Moves like this Make no sense what so ever for this team. I'd rather see what we have with our own guys before packaging them off.
The problem with that is if wait until everyone knows a player isn't as valuable as you hoped for when you selected him , then your return is dramatically diminished.
This is why GM's make trades and and why they are paid to evaluate and have as clear a vision for players as possible. The other advantage is getting production from th C slot which we really are not getting now , not in a strong enough way to make a real playoff push , imo.
All this enthusiasm about ROR makes no sense to me whatsoever, for the following reasons:
1)There is no evidence in his history that he is an elite C, but rather a high-50s, 1/2C tweener.
2)We already have a proven one of those in Little, and 2 more 'maybes' in Burmi and Scheifele.
3)There is broad agreement that what we actually lack is a true elite centre, a la Duchene, or better.
4)The hysteria that is building up around this kid means whoever trades for him will likely overpay. It will be a big pice, bigger than Burmi...and our cupboards are not exactly well stocked. I don't mind paying a premium for a true star, but there are only two of those on the Avalanche and neither's initials is ROR.
I really really really like Burmi, but I would trade him for ROR.
...but it is worth mentioning, ROR will probably cost twice as much as Burmi on his next contract. Burmi will probably cash in somewhere around 2-2.5M per year for a couple years.
Compare that to ROR who wants something like 5
Imagine:
5,000,000 ROR
5,750,000 Toby
5,250,000 Kane
5,200,000 Buff
3,900,000 Pav
4,400,000 Olli
4,400,000 Ladd
5,000,000 Bogo
5,000,000 Wheeler
3,500,000 Little
That would be 47.4MM towards a 64.3MM cap and leave 16.9 MM to fill out the rest of the roster.
Which leaves us with 10.083MM left to add a backup goalie, three bottom 6 forwards, and a couple depth D men. It wouldn't be a dire situation, but it would put them quite a bit closer to the cap. Are the Jets comfortable there?
4.5 million a year for a guy who doesn't even have 40 goals in total in his NHL career
seems extreme. I can see why Colorado hasn't signed him yet.
I know centres score less in general but still seems he has more to prove to warrant
that kind of money.
Quote:
Originally Posted by truck
I really really really like Burmi, but I would trade him for ROR.
...but it is worth mentioning, ROR will probably cost twice as much as Burmi on his next contract. Burmi will probably cash in somewhere around 2-2.5M per year for a couple years.
Compare that to ROR who wants something like 5
Imagine:
5,000,000 ROR
5,750,000 Toby
5,250,000 Kane
5,200,000 Buff
3,900,000 Pav
4,400,000 Olli
4,400,000 Ladd
5,000,000 Bogo
5,000,000 Wheeler
3,500,000 Little
That would be 47.4MM towards a 64.3MM cap and leave 16.9 MM to fill out the rest of the roster.
Which leaves us with 10.083MM left to add a backup goalie, three bottom 6 forwards, and a couple depth D men. It wouldn't be a dire situation, but it would put them quite a bit closer to the cap. Are the Jets comfortable there?
But hey. you gotta pay to play! I would take him over Burmi as well. Love the excitement Burmi brings to the team but we need points as well to win games, If ROR can produce points while playing a solid defensive game, he may be what we need to get more Ws.
We wouldn't be bringing in ROR to improve the now necessarily. We'd be bringing in a guy that could be a ten year answer at the #2C. He is versatile, still improving and well above average defensively. When we talk about being tougher to play against, ROR will always have a leg up on Little or Burmistrov that way.
His offensive production is far from a sure thing. The price to acquire him can't be too much as well. But if all it took was Burmi/Little and a small + it'd be real hard to turn down.
I really really really like Burmi, but I would trade him for ROR.
...but it is worth mentioning, ROR will probably cost twice as much as Burmi on his next contract. Burmi will probably cash in somewhere around 2-2.5M per year for a couple years.
Compare that to ROR who wants something like 5
Imagine:
5,000,000 ROR
5,750,000 Toby
5,250,000 Kane
5,200,000 Buff
3,900,000 Pav
4,400,000 Olli
4,400,000 Ladd
5,000,000 Bogo
5,000,000 Wheeler
3,500,000 Little
That would be 47.4MM towards a 64.3MM cap and leave 16.9 MM to fill out the rest of the roster.
Which leaves us with 10.083MM left to add a backup goalie, three bottom 6 forwards, and a couple depth D men. It wouldn't be a dire situation, but it would put them quite a bit closer to the cap. Are the Jets comfortable there?
Good breakdown. On the plus side, after next season Olli's 4.4 comes off those books, and we can *hopefully* add in Scheifele. But, with being a first round pick his cap hit can go up to 3.775 million, I believe.
I'd still feel comfortable with those numbers. Only thing is, is that would be the core and there really is no room to add a big UFA without moving a salary. That could be tricky if this core doesn't get their crap together as a group. Could O'Reilly help that? possibly. Could Scheifele in the coming couple years? possibly. As could Trouba. All things management will have to decide upon.
The more this drags on (all of a couple of weeks now ), the more I think O'Reilly will return to the Avs.
I think the Avs are using this opportunity to see what ROR is worth on the market, and at the end of the day, they give him $4+ mill/yr for 5 or 6 yrs.
I think they'll look at the offers and say, nothing fits for us, but ROR is a valuable guy.
All this enthusiasm about ROR makes no sense to me whatsoever, for the following reasons:
1)There is no evidence in his history that he is an elite C, but rather a high-50s, 1/2C tweener.
2)We already have a proven one of those in Little, and 2 more 'maybes' in Burmi and Scheifele.
3)There is broad agreement that what we actually lack is a true elite centre, a la Duchene, or better.
4)The hysteria that is building up around this kid means whoever trades for him will likely overpay. It will be a big pice, bigger than Burmi...and our cupboards are not exactly well stocked. I don't mind paying a premium for a true star, but there are only two of those on the Avalanche and neither's initials is ROR.
Edit: Beat me to it, Sully. While you were writing your last line, I was using the same words in my opening line.
here's the 5v5 pper 60 toi over each players first 3 years (2 in burmi's) Of the three ROR has had the worst zone starts.
Points/per 60 TOI 5v5
Little year 1: 1.87 (excluding very first, half year)
1.72
3 1.86
ROR year 1: 1.37
1.28
3 1.75
Burmi year 1: 1.27
year 2: 1.32
year 3 (ongoing: 1.23
But Colorado will match. They won't let him go for a 1st and a 3rd. So what's the point of doing the offer sheet then and upsetting Avs management?
We take a shot. I think the Avs management might kind of thank us. After they drew a line in the sand they couldn't really back down. If they really don't like the contract they have a tradeable asset at the end of the year. I don't think they'd be quite as mad as we think.
As for giving up a 1st and 3rd, ROR is absolutely worth that. A draft pick is nothing but potential. At least OReilly has shown some results already at the top level.
Another thing to remember though is ROR's season last year was his third, and THIS season is Burmi's third.
So comparing ROR's 3rd season with better linemates and PP time against Burmi's 2nd season with worse linemates and less PP time isn't apples to apples.
man i totally thought thought duchene ror and burmi were drafted in the same year....
I honestly believe that Burmi
Will end up being the better player, and this Jets team will be kicking themselves if they pull the trigger on a deal
surrounding him.
I'm not saying ROR isn't worth it, but I mean really? Is he worth the price to get him...on top of having to get him for 4.5?
I don't think so.
I'm also unwilling to trade our first this year. By the looks of things is going to be a very significant pick in a deep draft.
The problem with that is if wait until everyone knows a player isn't as valuable as you hoped for when you selected him , then your return is dramatically diminished.
This is why GM's make trades and and why they are paid to evaluate and have as clear a vision for players as possible. The other advantage is getting production from th C slot which we really are not getting now , not in a strong enough way to make a real playoff push , imo.
It's a gamble either way to be honest. We know what we have with Burmi which is a very good third line Center. He's an absolute beast on the PK. Even if he doesn't develop more then he is offensively, he's still good at what he does.
It's a gamble either way to be honest. We know what we have with Burmi which is a very good third line Center. He's an absolute beast on the PK. Even if he doesn't develop more then he is offensively, he's still good at what he does.
Doesn't mean you have to trade him.
Right now , labeling him as a very good 3rd line C and an absolute beast on the PK is a huge stretch imo. Not looking at potential or possible but actual , and he imo has not reached either of those levels. May he? Sure he may , but he hasn't again imo.
At some point the Jets organization have to make their decision on what player he actually is and will become , not may become.
Two points in one game , then benched for the third in the next , in a 2-1 game where a very good 3C would be highly wanted is a sign of why he has not found favour with the Jets so far. Turnovers in the third period where you have a one goal lead isn't what you need or want and Noel acted on that.
Right now , labeling him as a very good 3rd line C and an absolute beast on the PK is a huge stretch imo. Not looking at potential or possible but actual , and he imo has not reached either of those levels. May he? Sure he may , but he hasn't again imo.
At some point the Jets organization have to make their decision on what player he actually is and will become , not may become.
Two points in one game , then benched for the third in the next , in a 2-1 game where a very good 3C would be highly wanted is a sign of why he has not found favour with the Jets so far. Turnovers in the third period where you have a one goal lead isn't what you need or want and Noel acted on that.
Agreed, there is only so much time you can spend evaluating a player. I have to think the organization is dissapointed with his offensive development. Given what we have seen this year it doesn't look like he is going to take the same steps forward that ROR took in his third year. I will gladly take the more sure thing in ROR over Burmistrov who is increasingly becoming a big question mark as to whether he will ever put it all together. I don't envy GM's their position do you cut bait with a young promising player before you fully know what you have or do you stick with the player with the hope that he figures out. If he works you have the player you were hoping to trade for, or you have a written down asset that won't bring back a promising piece.
I'd be thrilled if we dealt for O'Reilly, provided you don't have to give up the farm. Word is COL is asking an awful lot for the holdout. Still, he'd make us a better team, no question about it. I'd love to see the news we got him.
), the more I think O'Reilly will return to the Avs. 
Friendly ManiBROba
