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Old
02-21-2013, 08:17 PM
  #76
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Don't even know why I argue with you sometimes.

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Old
02-21-2013, 08:24 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
Garbage.

It was not "understood". It was speculated and oft denied that there would be an amnesty and I challenge you to find any reputable source that calls it anything like known, understood, or obvious.
Please. You're being a bit more naive than badass. Everyone knew it was going to happen.

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Secondly, right now there are more than 90 defensemen that average 20+ minutes of TOI. If you'd like me to calculate the average salary of those 90 defensemen I will, but I can promise you that the average annual salary isn't even remotely close. I could also focus on those that have reached free agency, but you'd still be wrong.
Start here: http://capgeek.com/comparables/?player=750

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If you want to use hindsight to make yourself seem knowledgeable, that's fine, but just realize that most people see it for what it is.
Oh, gee, why be a fan of sports then?

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Old
02-21-2013, 08:47 PM
  #78
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It can when they're all terrible players. We're not talking about future core players here, we're talking about rubbish.
No, the quality of the players doesn't mean ****. I'm talking about mathematical logic.

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02-21-2013, 10:30 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
It was understood more than a year ago that there would be some sort of amnesty clause in the new CBA.

And it wasn't an overpayment. Go check out how much 20-minute defensemen are making post-free agency.



It can when they're all terrible players. We're not talking about future core players here, we're talking about rubbish.
Matt Carle: 5.5

Average salary: 4.37

Ryan Suter: 7.5
Jack Johnson: 4.3
Erik Karlsson: 6.5
Drew Doughty: 7.0
Dion Phaneuf: 6.5
Mike Green: 6.0
Shea Weber: 7.8
Brian Campbell: 7.1
Dustin Byfuglien: 5.2
Mark Streit: 4.1
Paul Martin: 5.0
Dennis Wideman: 5.25
Zdeno Chara: 6.9
Jay Bouwmeester: 6.6
Dan Girardi: 3.25
Christian Ehrhoff: 4.0
Joni Pitkanen: 4.5
Duncan Keith: 5.5
Sergei Gonchar: 5.5
Andrei Markov: 5.75
Niklas Kronwall: 4.75
Tobias Enstrom: 5.75
Francois Beauchemin: 3.5
Alexander Edler: 5.0
Rob Scuderi: 3.4
Mark Giordano: 4.0
Brent Seabrook: 5.8
James Wisniewski: 5.5
Fedor Tyutin: 4.5
Dan Boyle: 6.6
Brooks Orpik: 3.75
Tom Gilbert: 4.0
Braydon Coburn: 4.5
Dennis Seidenberg 3.25
Dan Hamhuis: 4.5
Keith Yandle: 5.25
John Carlson: 3.9
Victor Hedman: 4.0
Johnny Oduya: 3.3
Kevin Bieksa: 4.6
Nikita Nikitin: 2.1
Sami Salo: 3.75
Marc Methot: 3.0
Lubomir Visnovsky: 5.6
Andy Greene: 3.0
Bryce Salvador: 3.1
Marc-Edouard Vlasic: 4.25
Sheldon Souray: 5.4
Jason Garrison: 4.6
Stephane Robidas: 3.3
Alex Goligoski: 4.6
Kimmo Timonen: 6.3
Derek Morris: 2.75
Jordan Leopold: 3.0
Jonathan Ericsson: 3.25
Erik Johnson: 3.75
Niklas Hjalmarsson: 3.5
Trevor Daley: 3.3
Scott Hannan: 1.0
Filip Kuba: 4.0
Matt Hunwick: 1.6
Mike Weaver: 1.1
Josh Gorges: 3.9
Zbynek Michalek: 4.0
Johnny Boychuk: 3.3
Brad Stuart: 3.6
Raphael Diaz: 1.2
John-Michael Liles: 3.8
Ian White: 2.8
Eric Brewer: 3.8
Luke Schenn: 3.6


I advocated paying Carle 4.0-4.5 because he's an average defenseman. It turns out that pay is ideal for an average guy, since it's...the average, I guess. 5.5 is too much.

Edit: It's becoming a weekly tradition for me to make and average large lists. Probably not a coincidence it always happens when my GF hijacks the TV to watch Gray's Anatomy.

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Old
02-22-2013, 10:01 AM
  #80
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Dude, I said good defenseman off their post-free agent contracts. 20 minute defenseman. Not all 20 minute guys make $5m, but get garbage like Scott Hannan, Matt Hunwick, and Derek Morris out of there. Some of those guys are RFA deals which is a different market. Some of them are forever-contracts back diving so that Duncan Keith's cap number isn't over $7m.

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Old
02-22-2013, 11:28 AM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NormMac
He made a lot of short, efficient passes and was able to separate himself from forecheckers. He was able to anticipate the neutral zone traffic and and distribute the puck accordingly.
I didn't see Carle winning a lot of (physical) puck battles against forecheckers. There were numerous times when the Flyers would be hemmed in their zone with Matt Carle on the ice. This notion that if only he was still here, the Flyers would be hemmed in significantly less is bogus imo. The guys we have now aren't any less effective at this aspect.


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Originally Posted by NormMac
You're grossly misrepresenting what he did on the breakout. Those subtle plays are vastly more effective than low percentage stretch passes, but they are also less dramatic and noticeable, meaning a lot of Carle's work goes unappreciated by fans.
That sounds like it's glorifying some simple plays. A short D to D pass may be subtle and effective at times, but it certainly isn't something requiring a specialized skill. Anyone can do it, no need to pay a guy >$5 mil for it.


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Originally Posted by NormMac
To suggest that Schenn, Grossman and Gervais are better puck movers is ridiculous.
I know it sounds crazy...it goes against the popular perception of these players' roles and capabilities, but you know, I have spent a considerable amount of time focusing on these guys, trying to be objective. Some have shown surprising puck moving skills. Grossman in particular has been impressive in terms of his two-way game. I've seen him make quick, decisive puck moving/transition/breakout plays where I ask myself "Would Matt Carle do it that well?" and sometimes I have to say the answer is "no". I'm really impressed with him. Gervais has made some nice plays in skating or passing the puck out swiftly as well. Schenn too has shown flashes of being a capable puck mover. If you really look at it objectively, and ignore the perception and "role" that these guys may be labeled with, and compare the puck moving plays they attempt, I just don't see anything remarkably superior in what Carle does versus these guys. If you take a fresh, objective look, you might be surprised.

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Old
02-22-2013, 11:43 AM
  #82
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Taken in a vacuum, Homer ****ed up last summer, especially with Carle. However, the way I look at it, we're in a transition year that may wind up extending into next year, and I'm not sure that Carle would have fixed it.

Let's say Kimmo retires after next year. A defensive core of Carle/Schenn/Grossman/Coburn is not going to get it done, I'm sorry. Any money that would have gone to Carle is probably going to be better spent going to another young dman. Who that is, I don't know. I think the writing's on the wall that Holmgren is going to have to make a trade within the next 18 months to get a number 1-type dman. The sting of someone we like going the other way will hurt, but really, we need to end this stopgap old dmen thing.

We'll amnesty Briere, Kimmo and Mez will be off the books, and we'll have to pay G/Couturier/Schenn/Read. Maybe the math works out with Carle @5/5.5, I'm not sure, but I think we're probably better off in the long run passing on him. He would definitely help us this year and I think he's a pretty good player, but I don't think he would have put us over the top.

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Old
02-22-2013, 11:43 AM
  #83
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C'mon. You know Grossman has sick hands. He scored with 25 people playing rugby in front of the net nay two nights ago.

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02-22-2013, 01:03 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
Dude, I said good defenseman off their post-free agent contracts. 20 minute defenseman. Not all 20 minute guys make $5m, but get garbage like Scott Hannan, Matt Hunwick, and Derek Morris out of there. Some of those guys are RFA deals which is a different market. Some of them are forever-contracts back diving so that Duncan Keith's cap number isn't over $7m.
No matter how you cut it, there is no earthly way Carle is worth 5.5 million...or more than Coburn, for that matter. A LOT of those guys, besides Wideman, are clearly a step above Carle.

That list combines the good guys with the bad guys. The average falls in the middle, as averages tend to do. Carle himself falls into about the middle of the spectrum; not bad, but certainly not great. He simply doesn't deserve more than the average pay...certainly not 5.5 million.

Edit: Oh, and that isn't all 20 minute defenseman. That's all 20 minute defenseman who've hit UFA. About 20ish guys on 3 million dollar RFA contracts that play large minutes have been cut.


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Old
02-22-2013, 05:06 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
No matter how you cut it, there is no earthly way Carle is worth 5.5 million...or more than Coburn, for that matter. A LOT of those guys, besides Wideman, are clearly a step above Carle.

That list combines the good guys with the bad guys. The average falls in the middle, as averages tend to do. Carle himself falls into about the middle of the spectrum; not bad, but certainly not great. He simply doesn't deserve more than the average pay...certainly not 5.5 million.

Edit: Oh, and that isn't all 20 minute defenseman. That's all 20 minute defenseman who've hit UFA. About 20ish guys on 3 million dollar RFA contracts that play large minutes have been cut.
Players are worth what the market dictates, and he was worth more than Dennis Wideman (5.25, signed before him), because he is better than Dennis Wideman.

I still don't know where your edit comes from, because Keith, Jack Johnson, Green, Carlson, Hedman, and probably a couple others signed their deals without ever hitting the open market and were RFA's at the end of their deal. Hedman is the key figure there on how the RFA market is different, since he plays for the same team and got LESS than Carle, which goes to show how much UFA's actually cost (and why Timonen had them up **** creek for his extension).

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02-22-2013, 05:07 PM
  #86
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I don't get your point...players are more expensive when people overpay for them? That's a given.

That doesn't mean those players are actually worth those cap hits.

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02-22-2013, 05:07 PM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fauxflex View Post
I didn't see Carle winning a lot of (physical) puck battles against forecheckers. There were numerous times when the Flyers would be hemmed in their zone with Matt Carle on the ice. This notion that if only he was still here, the Flyers would be hemmed in significantly less is bogus imo. The guys we have now aren't any less effective at this aspect.
I don't know what to say other than maybe you weren't paying attention. Perhaps Carle is only average at defending the cycle, but he can transition the puck so the puck won't go right back into their own zone.

Quote:
That sounds like it's glorifying some simple plays. A short D to D pass may be subtle and effective at times, but it certainly isn't something requiring a specialized skill. Anyone can do it, no need to pay a guy >$5 mil for it.
It's not simple D-to-D passes, it's clean, smart passes that smoothly direct the puck forward. It's how Carle was consistently among the leaders in even strength points for defenders. And if were so easy that "anyone can do it", why do so many of Schenn/Grossman/Coburn/Gervais's passes result in a stymied rush or turnover.

Quote:
I know it sounds crazy...it goes against the popular perception of these players' roles and capabilities, but you know, I have spent a considerable amount of time focusing on these guys, trying to be objective. Some have shown surprising puck moving skills. Grossman in particular has been impressive in terms of his two-way game. I've seen him make quick, decisive puck moving/transition/breakout plays where I ask myself "Would Matt Carle do it that well?" and sometimes I have to say the answer is "no". I'm really impressed with him. Gervais has made some nice plays in skating or passing the puck out swiftly as well. Schenn too has shown flashes of being a capable puck mover. If you really look at it objectively, and ignore the perception and "role" that these guys may be labeled with, and compare the puck moving plays they attempt, I just don't see anything remarkably superior in what Carle does versus these guys. If you take a fresh, objective look, you might be surprised.
It's not a fresh and objective to view exaggerate the skills of players on your team, nor is it fresh and objective to continue the unwarranted Carle bashing that was so popular on these boards. Gervais is a borderline NHL player, Schenn can't skate or handle the puck, and Grossmann can't pass and read breakouts.

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02-22-2013, 05:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
I don't get your point...players are more expensive when people overpay for them? That's a given.
That's what the market dictates.

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02-22-2013, 05:10 PM
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That's what the market dictates.
And as I added in my edit, that doesn't mean those players are actually worth those cap hits.

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02-22-2013, 05:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
And as I added in my edit, that doesn't mean those players are actually worth those cap hits.
Defensemen have always been at a premium, so if the team is going to keep going into the UFA market, or trade for players who likely will soon be UFA's, you're going to have to pay. It's hard to make a case that they're overpaid when it's everybody.

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02-22-2013, 05:30 PM
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Defensemen have always been at a premium, so if the team is going to keep going into the UFA market, or trade for players who likely will soon be UFA's, you're going to have to pay. It's hard to make a case that they're overpaid when it's everybody.
Some Dmen are worth overpaying for, like Suter or Timonen way back when. Guys like Carle, Wideman, Reasoner...not really.

Maybe if your team is capable of bringing up their own Dmen and is spending a reasonable amount on D to begin with...but for a team like Philly, dropping yet another big contract into another mediocre Dman isn't a good idea. That creates a situation where lots of money goes into an "ok" product.

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02-22-2013, 05:36 PM
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Some Dmen are worth overpaying for, like Suter or Timonen way back when. Guys like Carle, Wideman, Reasoner...not really.

Maybe if your team is capable of bringing up their own Dmen and is spending a reasonable amount on D to begin with...but for a team like Philly, dropping yet another big contract into another mediocre Dman isn't a good idea. That creates a situation where lots of money goes into an "ok" product.
That in itself is a core issue, but the reality is that they're incompetent in doing so. The reality is that they're waiting for someone to out-price themselves where they're at.

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02-23-2013, 04:17 AM
  #93
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
And as I added in my edit, that doesn't mean those players are actually worth those cap hits.
Worth is determined by what the market bears, no? I would think the definition of a free agents "worth" is the price point at which market demand drops to one team. That's sort of a semantic position by me, since I agree with you that allowing Carle to make his bucks in Tampa was a prudent choice (and good on Carle for cashing in).

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02-23-2013, 10:20 AM
  #94
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Worth is determined by what the market bears, no? I would think the definition of a free agents "worth" is the price point at which market demand drops to one team. That's sort of a semantic position by me, since I agree with you that allowing Carle to make his bucks in Tampa was a prudent choice (and good on Carle for cashing in).
Then, by that definition, it is impossible to say anyone is overpaid? If it's fair game to suppose that a team made a mistake in hindsight to not sign a particular player, should it not also be fair game to say that the contract he received is an overpayment by comparing it to others of similar talent?

Carle took advantage of a weak free agent class (as someone will do as a defenseman again this offseason). That doesn't make it sound resource management to overpay on a long term deal.

Holmgren does more than enough to warrant criticism.I just refuse to criticize him for showing a modicum of foresight and not giving a decent player a star contract.

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02-23-2013, 11:58 AM
  #95
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the best part of this whole discussion is that fact Carle is still GONE..

nuff said...

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02-23-2013, 04:04 PM
  #96
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Quote:
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Then, by that definition, it is impossible to say anyone is overpaid? If it's fair game to suppose that a team made a mistake in hindsight to not sign a particular player, should it not also be fair game to say that the contract he received is an overpayment by comparing it to others of similar talent?
This is a fair point, and surely some guys were payed more than they should have been or evaluated to be better players than they really are. I was getting at the idea that worth is relative. If Tampa needs what Carle does badly enough, he's worth paying 5.5x6, to them. That might represent an overpayment for every other team in the league, or far exceed what hewould be offered if the salaries team's were willing to pay him were averaged . . . but to them, he was worth it.

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02-23-2013, 05:47 PM
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02-23-2013, 05:48 PM
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02-23-2013, 05:49 PM
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02-23-2013, 05:50 PM
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OK so this took a while

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