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Ryan O'Reilly Headed to Offer Sheet or Trade (Part 4)

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02-22-2013, 09:43 PM
  #101
Petes2424
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Originally Posted by Aslanrh View Post
Sekera+Armia/Girgensons is still my favorite base for a trade in all the ones I've read from the different threads. Based on probable return and meeting needs as well as the amount of pieces involved.
Would love a bigger deal for Ennis/Foligno + Sekera with Col sending ROR+ back, but often simplicity is best.
That's a good deal for both teams. Sekera is solid as a rock and will only get more solid. Nothing special but a guy who can play for you ten years. Armia is a great power forward prospect even with his slow feet, who may or may not end up being a 25 goal scorer. Slow footed Euros usually struggle a bit in the NHL finding room but others arent effected at all. Major upside guy. Might need a year in the AHL first but can really plug a hole in the next few years for the Avs.

This would be on the high end of what the Avs should expect. Two guys who both can possibly end up in an all star game or two, or, they could just be good competitors. Only time will tell, but they're both gonna be above average NHL players.

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02-22-2013, 09:43 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by FrontalLombardomy View Post
ROR =/= Mike Richards.
Not what I said.

Schenn was HF's #1 rated prospect at the time of the trade to Philly. Grigorenko, at least by HF, is the lesser regarded player.

Simmonds is more valuable than JGL.

The picks are even.

So, Richards and O'Reilly aren't equal. The trade proposal I offered is similar but not equal accordingly.

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02-22-2013, 09:52 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Der Jaeger View Post
Not what I said.

Schenn was HF's #1 rated prospect at the time of the trade to Philly. Grigorenko, at least by HF, is the lesser regarded player.

Simmonds is more valuable than JGL.

The picks are even.

So, Richards and O'Reilly aren't equal. The trade proposal I offered is similar but not equal accordingly.
If an NHL GM looks at HF to determine what value really is, he's an idiot. Look at their list right now. It's immensely flawed. Trouba is 50th and Lehner is ranked below Subban. Let's not even get to the Russian kids or Dumba being ranked far ahead of Brodin.

It's all subjective. Watching them play does wonders and most GMs have seen these type of players numerous times.

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02-22-2013, 09:55 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Petes2424 View Post
If an NHL GM looks at HF to determine what value really is, he's an idiot. Look at their list right now. It's immensely flawed. Trouba is 50th and Lehner is ranked below Subban. Let's not even get to the Russian kids or Dumba being ranked far ahead of Brodin.

It's all subjective. Watching them play does wonders and most GMs have seen these type of players numerous times.
That's not what I said either. I'l put it another way. More value: Grigorenko now or Schenn at the time of the trade?

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02-22-2013, 10:06 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by Der Jaeger View Post
That's not what I said either. I'l put it another way. More value: Grigorenko now or Schenn at the time of the trade?
Sorry, I thought you were using HF rankings to justify an opinion.

Personally, I would take Schenn last year compared to Grigorenko this year. BUT, Im not sure that's an overwhelming opinion. Im not a big Grigorenko fan, although he keeps proving me wrong. It's probably pretty even honestly.

Ryan O'Reilly has a long way to go before he's worth what Mike Richards pulled in though. Im not sure who was suggesting that one.

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02-22-2013, 10:18 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
Yeah it's that simple... lol

One, they have leverage over him and believe in bridge deals during RFA years. Two, he does need to prove he can sustain and/or improve on his current level of play before being given a long term deal.

Other teams may be willing to take the risk, Colorado is being more conservative. Especially with all the young talent who will need raises soon besides O'Reilly.

A lot of people believe he might sign a shorter term bridge deal with a team who has less depth at Center than Colorado, in other words where he would have a clear cut top 6 center position. So that he has the opportunity to prove his worth as well.

All of this has been said before...
Then trade him for what they value him at...a 2nd line player who might become a 1B center. Not a superstar level return. I don't care if its been said before, not all of us follow this situation that closely, so no need to be a *****.

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02-22-2013, 10:20 PM
  #107
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Just trowing this out there.
Plekanec for ROR+

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02-22-2013, 10:26 PM
  #108
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Hrm hrm hrm.

I wonder if Wierchioch + Puempel/Noesen + 3rd 2012 would get it done.

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02-22-2013, 10:29 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by otto bond View Post
Just trowing this out there.
Plekanec for ROR+
The "+" would be coming from the Avs?

Plekanec has proven more but O'Reilly is 8 years younger and was the better player last season. Avs aren't going to pay Plekanec $5M/yr.

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02-22-2013, 10:31 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontalLombardomy View Post
ROR =/= Mike Richards.
agreed, Mike Richards is more physical while O'reilly relies on his stick albeit arguable the best in the league(or second behind Datsyuk.) Offensively there not much different, I would say O'reilly is probably a better passer, Richards is better along the boards.

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02-22-2013, 10:40 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by avsfan09 View Post
agreed, Mike Richards is more physical while O'reilly relies on his stick albeit arguable the best in the league(or second behind Datsyuk.) Offensively there not much different, I would say O'reilly is probably a better passer, Richards is better along the boards.
in speed, about the same?

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02-22-2013, 10:43 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Avs_19 View Post
The "+" would be coming from the Avs?

Plekanec has proven more but O'Reilly is 8 years younger and was the better player last season. Avs aren't going to pay Plekanec $5M/yr.
You got to be honest, Plekanec did well considering the help he had. I wouldn't say the plus is a 1st rounder but Plekanec is a heck of a player and signed.

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02-22-2013, 10:44 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by officeglen View Post
in speed, about the same?
O'reilly improved his skating alot last year.

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02-22-2013, 10:47 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Cujomi View Post
Hrm hrm hrm.

I wonder if Wierchioch + Puempel/Noesen + 3rd 2012 would get it done.
Hrm hrm hrm.

I wonder how long it would take for the Avs to say no.

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02-22-2013, 10:47 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Petes2424 View Post
Sorry, I thought you were using HF rankings to justify an opinion.

Personally, I would take Schenn last year compared to Grigorenko this year. BUT, Im not sure that's an overwhelming opinion. Im not a big Grigorenko fan, although he keeps proving me wrong. It's probably pretty even honestly.

Ryan O'Reilly has a long way to go before he's worth what Mike Richards pulled in though. Im not sure who was suggesting that one.
No worries.

I suggested that O'Reilly's deal might look like Richards.

Schenn > Grigorenko but both are 1C of the future.

Simmonds > JGL

Draft choices are even.

So the value is different. Schenn/Simmonds/2nd > Grigorenko/JGL/2nd but the construction of each deal is similar.

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02-22-2013, 10:53 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by avsfan09 View Post
agreed, Mike Richards is more physical while O'reilly relies on his stick albeit arguable the best in the league(or second behind Datsyuk.) Offensively there not much different, I would say O'reilly is probably a better passer, Richards is better along the boards.
Richards has put up 75-80 pts in the NHL. We dont have a clue if O'Reilly will ever be capable of that. He never showed any pure scoring ability in Juniors either. It's not like we're waiting for him to bust out and become a major offensive force.

Not Mike Richards. It's not even fair to compare the guy to him. Richards scored over 30 twice in the OHL and in the NHL. We knew he had the offensive ability.

Saying they're not much different offensively is pretty offensive to Mike Richards.

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02-22-2013, 10:55 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by MikeC View Post
Tinordi wont be a top 4....Eller is a third at best...moen 4th line player

Are you sure that your tv is on when you are watching hockey????

Extremelly bad trade proposals.....
Sorry, were just the foundations of a trade not the finished product.

They have hockey on TV?????

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02-22-2013, 11:26 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by Avs44 View Post
Hrm hrm hrm.

I wonder how long it would take for the Avs to say no.
What's wrong with the deal? A 1st round pick from a year ago, a top 4 defenceman with upside and a 3rd rounder this year. That's more than you would get from an offer sheet at the 5 mil salary range. Not to mention Wierchioch can slot in right away and Noesen/Puempel both have a lot of potential while if it were Noesen he could alleviate some of the intangibles lost as well as provide some more grit.

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02-22-2013, 11:32 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by Petes2424 View Post
Richards has put up 75-80 pts in the NHL. We dont have a clue if O'Reilly will ever be capable of that. He never showed any pure scoring ability in Juniors either. It's not like we're waiting for him to bust out and become a major offensive force.

Not Mike Richards. It's not even fair to compare the guy to him. Richards scored over 30 twice in the OHL and in the NHL. We knew he had the offensive ability.

Saying they're not much different offensively is pretty offensive to Mike Richards.
From what I understand he was on an awful eerie otters team. I know he's not Richards now, but I think he's close. If he had more PP time last year(avs had lowest in last thirty years) it's not inconceivable that he would have scored 5-10 more points. He also played the first half of the year with Daniel Winnik on his wing.

Ryan O'reilly drives the offense by create turn overs and transitioning. With him being a good playmaker, with a good goal scorer he could do some damage. On top of that you can match him against all teams top lines(I know you can with richards) and he comes out on top more often than not.

O'reilly is worth a lot and people don't realize how valuable he is. I'm sick of people looking at the stats. After watching him progress over the years it's tough to let him go but I guarantee whoever gets him will fall in love with him and treat him like Avs fans do.

I know I sound homerish, but O'reilly is a hell of a player and it hurts to see him go. It seemed that him and O'reilly would lead this team back to greatness. I only hope the parts we get back are anywhere near as valuable to the future as O'reilly would have been.

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02-22-2013, 11:35 PM
  #120
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Originally Posted by RockLobster View Post
Little and a Top Prospect (not sure of the Jets' prospect pool) for ROR + could very well be the basis of a deal in my opinion.
Our only top prospects are Scheifele and Trouba. Pretty hefty drop after that. Postma and Redmond used to be up there behind those two, but Postma is now much needed at the big club, and Redmond is out for the year.

The problem is if Scheifele or Trouba are included with Little or say Burmistrov, the Jets would expect more than just ROR. I don't think there's anything unreasonable about that.

Quote:
Of course it all comes out to that "+" on both sides. Little is a nice player in my opinion, and someone who I've wanted on the Avs for a while, but I've got to believe that even Winnipeg fans would realize that of the two players ROR has the higher ceiling and is the better player, just based on his intangibles and work ethic and desire to prove his doubters wrong by turning his weaknesses into strengths.
Jets fans are fully cognizant that ROR has more value than Little based on many factors. We just ask that you realize Little has been playing at center for years now out of team necessity. He is actually better at RW. He did score 31 goals on the wing.

One other thing that has come up with trading with the Jets is Enstrom is week to week, and Redmond is out for the year. We went from 8 healthy D (for a whole 3 minutes of ice time) to 6 in very short order. So I don't think trading any of our D is an option. We also have lots of injuries on the farm.

The way I see it the only roster players the Jets would want to give up for ROR would be Little or Burmistrov. We only have three decent wingers that we want to keep very badly, and I'm sure players like Antropov/Wellwood/Jokinen are of no interest considering their age and UFA status. I don't think the Avs want a rental player.

To be honest, we're not a very good trading partner at this point. But it can work, depending on how flexible Avs management wants to be.

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02-22-2013, 11:49 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
Our only top prospects are Scheifele and Trouba. Pretty hefty drop after that. Postma and Redmond used to be up there behind those two, but Postma is now much needed at the big club, and Redmond is out for the year.

The problem is if Scheifele or Trouba are included with Little or say Burmistrov, the Jets would expect more than just ROR. I don't think there's anything unreasonable about that.
Agree with everything your saying. For the bolded part what would you expect back for a little/burmi+Trouba package?

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02-23-2013, 12:17 AM
  #122
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Ennis, Sekera, and 3rd rd pick for ROR and Pickard

Make it happen

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02-23-2013, 12:17 AM
  #123
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Agree with everything your saying. For the bolded part what would you expect back for a little/burmi+Trouba package?
Quite a lot. He could be a franchise D-man. That's the problem, we only have four pieces to trade that you'd be interested and they're all valuable. I would say Trouba the most valuable. To put a number to it, I would say Little is worth 65% of ROR and Trouba maybe 75%.

I would say your 1st for 2013 and a decent prospect. Something like that, just throwing it out there.

You have to realize you're taking half of our decent prospects.

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02-23-2013, 12:40 AM
  #124
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Quite a lot. He could be a franchise D-man. That's the problem, we only have four pieces to trade that you'd be interested and they're all valuable. I would say Trouba the most valuable. To put a number to it, I would say Little is worth 65% of ROR and Trouba maybe 75%.

I would say your 1st for 2013 and a decent prospect. Something like that, just throwing it out there.

You have to realize you're taking half of our decent prospects.
Do you realize how high our 2013 first could be? We are looking at possibly a top 5 pick... Our first isn't moving as part of any deal at this point.

O'Reilly + Elliott for Little + Trouba is fair, O'Reilly having more value than Little and Trouba having more value than Elliott.

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02-23-2013, 12:52 AM
  #125
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Do you realize how high our 2013 first could be? We are looking at possibly a top 5 pick... Our first isn't moving as part of any deal at this point.
Yes there is that potential, but where would Trouba be if the 2012 draft was re-done? Some say he will be the best D of the draft. There's much less risk taking Trouba instead of a 1st. There's also the time factor as well.

Quote:
O'Reilly + Elliott for Little + Trouba is fair, O'Reilly having more value than Little and Trouba having more value than Elliott.
Not fully educated on Elliott, but my point was a "decent" prospect, not an elite one.

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