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ATD 2013 Draft Draft Thread IV

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Old
02-23-2013, 01:14 AM
  #701
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The Edmonton Mercurys did not receive a pm, but are proud to select RW/C Ed Litzenberger. next pmed.



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Litzenberger was a significant factor in the Black Hawks resurgence, leading the way with class and distinction, not to mention goals. Despite the mid-season trade Litzenberger would earn the Calder Trophy as the NHL's rookie of the year, scoring 40 points in the final 40 games. Gangly but deceptive, he would go on to become a regular linemate of Bobby Hull (with Lorne Ferguson), a 6 time All Star Game participant and score 32 or more goals in three consecutive seasons. Perhaps most importantly, he was the leader of the Hawks, named team captain, and he led by example with hard work and pure class. Though his scoring had dried up, he helped complete the Black Hawks return to glory by leading the team to the Stanley Cup championship in 1961!
http://blackhawkslegends.blogspot.co...zenberger.html

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Old
02-23-2013, 01:30 AM
  #702
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Oatman had a 30 year career.... and a peak that smashes Rene Robert's.
30 years looks less impressive again when you add up everywhere they ever played... seriously... you are taking Oatman from 21 in the NHA to when he was playing third-tier leagues... there are eleven years I can see out of that chunk when he was not playing in one of the top three leagues in the world... what does that count for I wonder and how is it relevant...

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Rene Robert looks like a winner because he is at an advantage. Why not look at 1965-1974 and see where Robert ranks there?
So we can never look at chunks of time, even if they are a decade's worth and follow a defined era... again, an interesting rule... I will remember it... I also remember that 320 games > 648...

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It's not about what you are allowed to do, it's about understanding how impressive (or not) something is.
And it's pretty impressive he was during his career a top seven RW in the NHL... or are we not allowed to look at careers as a whole anymore... I can't remember... so many new rules I did not know...

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You may not have deliberately cherry-picked, but the result is the same. Robert is at an advantage.
So it's an unfair advantage to look at a decade of play that happens tocoincide with his career... but we should be looking at a chunk like '1965 to 1974' when he was not yet an NHL regular...

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Rick Martin was one of the top few LWs in the game. Is Kharlamov one of the top few LWs in this draft? As I said, it depends who you ask.

Personally, I wouldn't say a guy who could only lead a second-rate league in scoring once is one of the best LWs of all time.
Ignoring that this is oversimplified... shocking coming from someone who boosts a player from the PCHA and a patchwork of stats from yesteryear leagues...

If the requirement to be one of the best LWs of all-time is to lead the NHL in scoring... well... Daniel Sedin and Roy Conacher should be first round picks...

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You said he was going to play with Kharlamov and Hawerchuk...
Or with KLM.. on the POWERPLAY...

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Doesn't matter anyway, he's not a very good 3rd liner either.
Right... we would have been better off with a 6 x Fred J. Hume Cup Winner... or a guy who led his team in goals one time in 1952...

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02-23-2013, 01:45 AM
  #703
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Originally Posted by gmm View Post
The Edmonton Mercurys did not receive a pm, but are proud to select RW/C Ed Litzenberger. next pmed.
LeafLander asked someone to PM you, sorry about that.

Johnny's up and via list selects C, Joel Otto

PM'ing Modo now

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Old
02-23-2013, 01:49 AM
  #704
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Originally Posted by SchultzSquared View Post
30 years looks less impressive again when you add up everywhere they ever played... seriously... you are taking Oatman from 21 in the NHA to when he was playing third-tier leagues... there are eleven years I can see out of that chunk when he was not playing in one of the top three leagues in the world... what does that count for I wonder and how is it relevant...
Yeah, a lot of Oatman's career was in lower leagues, but a lot of it was not. When you compare him to a guy like Rene Robert, who had 8 meaningful seasons, he looks pretty damn good.

Quote:
So we can never look at chunks of time, even if they are a decade's worth and follow a defined era... again, an interesting rule... I will remember it... I also remember that 320 games > 648...

And it's pretty impressive he was during his career a top seven RW in the NHL... or are we not allowed to look at careers as a whole anymore... I can't remember... so many new rules I did not know...
What are those words you keep throwing around? Hyperbole... and strawman....

It's not about what you can and can't use as your metrics. You just need to understand what exactly they mean.


Quote:
So it's an unfair advantage to look at a decade of play that happens tocoincide with his career... but we should be looking at a chunk like '1965 to 1974' when he was not yet an NHL regular...
Now you're getting it. Rene Robert was not an NHLer in the chunk of 1965 to 1974, and you think that's not fair.

How many players shared Robert's peak in the 1970s? That's exactly why I said chunks of time flatter the person they are meant to flatter.

Quote:
Ignoring that this is oversimplified... shocking coming from someone who boosts a player from the PCHA and a patchwork of stats from yesteryear leagues...

If the requirement to be one of the best LWs of all-time is to lead the NHL in scoring... well... Daniel Sedin and Roy Conacher should be first round picks...
You can disagree with my assessment if you want - I know a lot of people do. Simply put, the statistics do not match the accounts of his play. I've owned him before, and I shared this opinion while he was on my team.

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Right... we would have been better off with a 6 x Fred J. Hume Cup Winner... or a guy who led his team in goals one time in 1952...
You would have been better with quite a few guys, especially when you put him alongside your 3rd line center. Off the top of my head, there are at least 20 (I bet it's over 30 once I look closely) available wingers who would be better 3rd liners than Robert.

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02-23-2013, 02:43 AM
  #705
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I hadn't read that. Ok, Stasiuk looks like an Owen Nolan type winger - solid, physical up-and-down-the-wing fore and backchecker. Nolan was better offensively, but the biggest difference there is probably powerplay time, which I think Stasiuk got relatively little of, if I recall correctly.
IIRC, Stasiuk once led the league in ESP... or he was 2nd, or 3rd.

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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I should probably temper that statement a bit. Sanderson's ES production was ok. His even-strength peak looks similar to Brent Sutter's, for example...kind of. But Sutter has that one huge season, and a productive peak that was roughly twice as long as Turk's. It's the combination of not being that great offensively at even strength and a relatively short career that gives me pause when looking at Sanderson. He can definitely do his thing on an ATD 3rd line, but I still think he's always been a bit overrated in this forum.
Sutter had that one huge season because he played with Bossy due to a Trottier injury, no? I'm not sure that makes him any better; it was all situational.

Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Speaking of ES production, have you noticed that hockey-reference has ES/PP/SH assists now?
Sweet!

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Old
02-23-2013, 02:59 AM
  #706
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Who centered Klukay? I know he spent at least some time with Ted Kennedy and wouldn't be surprised if they were regular linemates.
Didn't he play a bunch with Metz? Or were they just a PK duo?

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Prentice played all or most of the PP in New York with at least 2 very good PP players. Armstrong played a regular PP shift, but Toronto rotated their PP forwards and didn't really give any of them a lot of PP time (this is the argument as to part of the reason Mahovlich's numbers were hurt by playing in Toronto).
I could have sworn a few drafts ago when I had Prentice it turned out that the PP/ES breakdown was quite favourable to Prentice.

Maybe not in relation to this group of checking-oriented players, mind you. But I remember being pleased at the numbers that were presented.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I gotta say...looking through Vs2 data and comparing certain players against one another, I am astounded by some of the strange valuations that persist in the ATD. Vs2 is not a perfect system, but it is in my opinion by far the best shorthand metric we have for comparing offensive production, and some of the results it yields are kind of bizarre in light of enshrined ATD draft positions. There are guys who seem to be entrenched as ATD scoringliners who look quite average, while others who are taken way late in the draft look really good. It is kind of...odd.
Boy, are you ever right.

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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Well, I think this is what Sturm is talking about. I think Kevin Stevens was a fine selection when he was picked, but he wasn't a steal. And it seems like the only argument that he was a "steal" is his past draft position.
I don't think he'd be a good selection even if he was taken now.

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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Have no idea why anybody would take Rene Robert before Oatman. Eddie Oatman is better than a lot of RWs who have gone. Can't believe VI didn't take Oatman to play with Dunderdale.
They played together for nearly a decade, and have very complementary skill sets. I agree.

But don't ever hold your breath expecting VI to pick Oatman

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
Why? His point finishes and VS2 scores aren't out of place.

I don't see what's wrong with him as a bottom of the barrel 2nd liner who plays a complimentary role. I guess you could get aggressive with his linemate situation, but there's so many people in that boat.
I agree he can be that. I think if you were to shake out all the players of history in a sifter he would not be in the top-64 offensive RWs. Maybe not even close. But his reasonable intangibles would likely make him a more suited RW than some of the guys ahead of him. He's a passable 2nd line RW... at best. His current position is still a bit of a holdover from the days where pappy's subjective judgments were gospel here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
Open question now that they're all drafted, should Frank Patrick continue to go ahead of Art Duncan and Lloyd Cook?
Good question. Remember patrick had a decent career before the PCHA, and was also more concerned with managing than playing. When playing, he was an all-star.

I thought hard about it, and I think I'd still take him ahead of both of them.

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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Who was it that offered to bring you in as a secret co-GM when you were still banned from the draft? That guy must have really disliked you...
Oh snap!

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Originally Posted by SchultzSquared View Post
you can say okay look at his linemates but I'm wonder if you have seen our top six and therefore top six PP forwards... Kharlamov/Hawerchuk is vastly superior to Martin/Perreault... and the KLM line is no slouch unit either. Robert will be taking passes from some combo of those forwards... tough to argue he will be in tough compared to his Sabres days linemate-wise
You realize every GM can say that about every player they drafted... right?

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Old
02-23-2013, 03:10 AM
  #707
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
VS2 is good for players who usually played on scoring lines. It's pretty hard on pre-expansion players who weren't first unit PP guys and absolutely brutal to pre-expansion checkers.
Yes, I would say that is absolutely right. Vs2 is a good shorthand for comparing players who had equal opportunities to score, but it cannot account for powerplay time and wide differences in talent between linemates. Thankfully, ATD GMs mostly use the metric correctly. We've only just recently started getting into the real checkingliners, but I've seen more discussion of even-strength points regarding checkers than Vs2 numbers.

What I'm trying to say is that I think at this point we've got pretty good metrics for evaluating relative scoring and we seem to know pretty well what they're good for, but nobody seems to actually bother using them. I mean...no offense to nik because I think he was a fine pick to play with Lafleur because he offers certainty, but why was Steve Shutt recently called one of the steals of the draft? Because of his actual accomplishments, or because he had been selected as a fringe top-200 player in the past?

You mentioned this yourself when George's Vagina was drafted, and we'll see it again.

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02-23-2013, 03:18 AM
  #708
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Sutter had that one huge season because he played with Bossy due to a Trottier injury, no? I'm not sure that makes him any better; it was all situational.
Yes...if I remember correctly, Sutter did play on a line with Bossy that year, but Trottier played there some of the time, as well. Bryan was beat up that season, but he didn't actually miss that many games, and Arbour wasn't going to just demote him. It was a very impressive season for Bossy, though, because he proved he could score with or without a star center, and could to an extent make his linemates, rather than the other way around.

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Old
02-23-2013, 03:19 AM
  #709
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
... I don't think he'd be a good selection even if he was taken now. ... I agree he can be that. I think if you were to shake out all the players of history in a sifter he would not be in the top-64 offensive RWs. Maybe not even close. But his reasonable intangibles would likely make him a more suited RW than some of the guys ahead of him. He's a passable 2nd line RW... at best. His current position is still a bit of a holdover from the days where pappy's subjective judgments were gospel here. ...
You seem to be implying that Kevin Stevens is not a top 400 player since we're on pick 384. pappy had huge influence here. I know a starter on his ATD Championship team that went in the AAA last year.

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Old
02-23-2013, 03:26 AM
  #710
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Yes, I would say that is absolutely right. Vs2 is a good shorthand for comparing players who had equal opportunities to score, but it cannot account for powerplay time and wide differences in talent between linemates. Thankfully, ATD GMs mostly use the metric correctly. We've only just recently started getting into the real checkingliners, but I've seen more discussion of even-strength points regarding checkers than Vs2 numbers.

What I'm trying to say is that I think at this point we've got pretty good metrics for evaluating relative scoring and we seem to know pretty well what they're good for, but nobody seems to actually bother using them. I mean...no offense to nik because I think he was a fine pick to play with Lafleur because he offers certainty, but why was Steve Shutt recently called one of the steals of the draft? Because of his actual accomplishments, or because he had been selected as a fringe top-200 player in the past?

You mentioned this yourself when George's Vagina was drafted, and we'll see it again.
best auto correct ever

Quote:
Originally Posted by gmm View Post
You seem to be implying that Kevin Stevens is not a top 400 player since we're on pick 384. pappy had huge influence here. I know a starter on his ATD Championship team that went in the AAA last year.
absolutely I don't think Stevens is a top 400 player.

and yeah, that guy belongs in the AAA, not the ATD.

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02-23-2013, 03:34 AM
  #711
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
best auto correct ever. absolutely I don't think Stevens is a top 400 player. and yeah, that guy belongs in the AAA, not the ATD.
Thank you for replying. I used the words "seem" and "implying", because I wasn't trying to put words in your mouth. I'm married with a child so I wasn't offended, but I didn't figure out the auto correct and I thought what does that have to do with hockey.


Last edited by Hawkman: 02-23-2013 at 12:09 PM.
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02-23-2013, 03:38 AM
  #712
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
You mentioned this yourself when George's Vagina was drafted, and we'll see it again.
This is what happens when you use one tab for HFboard and another for porn....

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02-23-2013, 03:39 AM
  #713
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You mentioned this yourself when George's Vagina was drafted, and we'll see it again.

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02-23-2013, 03:42 AM
  #714
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This is what happens when you use one tab for HFboard and another for porn....
Ack! Stupid iPhone.

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02-23-2013, 03:51 AM
  #715
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Stupid iPhone.
It's made by Apple, what else would you expect.

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02-23-2013, 06:15 AM
  #716
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Originally Posted by gmm View Post
The Edmonton Mercurys did not receive a pm, but are proud to select RW/C Ed Litzenberger.
Litz is a good pick here. I think he went too early in the past largely due to pappy's influence, including when I had him on my 2nd line in ATD#10 (he's the one player on those championship teams I feel like I "got away with" in retrospect), but he's a solid value here. A nice, but brief, offensive peak:

Ed Litzenberger Vs2:
85, 78, 75, 69, 49

Those numbers are basically in backwards chronological order to his actual peak, and he seemed to be getting better every season until the tragic car crash which killed his wife and took away his speed. To his credit, he was able to reinvent himself as a checker and utillity player in Toronto, which should say something about his all-around game, though more specific information would be good. Somewhat embarassingly, I know little about Litz's intangibles in spite of having owned him. I think Litz could have been a hall of famer if not for that incident, but it is what it is.

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02-23-2013, 06:32 AM
  #717
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Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
LeafLander asked someone to PM you, sorry about that.

Johnny's up and via list selects C, Joel Otto

PM'ing Modo now
Nice pick, a personal favorite of mine....

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02-23-2013, 06:35 AM
  #718
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Looking to move up.....

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02-23-2013, 06:43 AM
  #719
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
We're not talking about how Hawerchuk compares to Perreault in a head-to-head comparison. We're comparing them relatively.

Gilbert Pearreault was one of the best few centers in the league. Is Hawerchuk one of the best few centers in this league?

You can argue that Perreault wasn't one of the very best, but he was definitely a top-end 1st line center. Hawerchuk isn't close to that here.
Seriously?

Hawerchuk was considered one of the best few centers in the league.

The only reason he isn't higher relatively is because he had much tougher competition at center than Perreault did.

You know, Gretzky, Lemieux....

Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
absolutely I don't think Stevens is a top 400 player.

and yeah, that guy belongs in the AAA, not the ATD.
Based on?

There are plenty of other players with short and less impressive peaks.

He wasn't purely a product of Lemieux, either.


Last edited by BraveCanadian: 02-23-2013 at 06:50 AM.
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02-23-2013, 06:54 AM
  #720
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Seriously?

Hawerchuk was considered one of the best few centers in the league.

The only reason he isn't higher relatively is because he had much tougher competition at center than Perreault did.

You know, Gretzky, Lemieux....
Hawerchuk was better than Perreault in my honest opinion.

Here are their top-10 finishes.

Hawerchuk: 3, 4, 7, 9

Perreault: 3, 4, 5, 8, 9

I'd say at the end of the day its a wash. At their best they were the 2nd best center in the league. Hawerchuk benefitted by having his best season when Lemieux was only a rookie and Perreault benefitted from not having to compete with Gretzky or Lemieux.

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02-23-2013, 07:10 AM
  #721
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I've got Hawerchuk and Perreault in the same tier of centers, and it's a pretty widely dispersed group in terms of draft position, going all the way down to Barry and Thornton. Perreault's perceived superiority to the other centers in his peer group is most likely a persistent artifact of the awful THN Top-100 list, which was one of the cornerstones of the ATD back in the stone age.

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02-23-2013, 07:26 AM
  #722
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The impression I got from doing a bit of research on Goyette was that he wasn't really a defensive ace so much as he was an offensive player that couldn't crack the lineup and needed to do something to stay afloat in Montreal...so he was probably decent defensively, but it probably wasn't a natural fit, born out of necessity basically...

That was just an impression though, I can't really say for sure unless I go back and watch him...

Still a very good player regardless, not knocking the pick...
i have drafted and researched goyette in an earlier draft, and i did not find information that he was a particularly strong defensive player. he often played on a checking line, in both montreal and NY, though. in late '50s, he often played with claude provost.

toe blake called him an "outstanding forechecker," and along with his linemates in NY, he was called a good defensive F. goyette was also a very good faceoff man, and was fast and shifty.

he apparently much preferred to pass. i found a NYT article which said he "often exasperated fans by looking for someone to pass to."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Yes, I would say that is absolutely right. Vs2 is a good shorthand for comparing players who had equal opportunities to score, but it cannot account for powerplay time and wide differences in talent between linemates. Thankfully, ATD GMs mostly use the metric correctly. We've only just recently started getting into the real checkingliners, but I've seen more discussion of even-strength points regarding checkers than Vs2 numbers.

What I'm trying to say is that I think at this point we've got pretty good metrics for evaluating relative scoring and we seem to know pretty well what they're good for, but nobody seems to actually bother using them. I mean...no offense to nik because I think he was a fine pick to play with Lafleur because he offers certainty, but why was Steve Shutt recently called one of the steals of the draft? Because of his actual accomplishments, or because he had been selected as a fringe top-200 player in the past?
i would not have picked shutt if lafleur were a regular star instead of an unpredictable player. shutt's offensive numbers are not very impressive, and he provided little else.

since overpass mentioned that hockey-reference has ES, PP and SH scoring, i looked at shutt's numbers again, and noticed that shutt did not score much on PP. he scored over 3 times as many goals and assists at ES than on PP.

it's very predictable that shutt would have few PP assists, but he also did not have very many goals on PP. he only had more than 10g on PP in '78 and '80.


comparison of LW's of the period:

ES points ----- (points per game)
barber: 551 ----- (.610)
shutt: 639 ------ (.687)
martin: 482 ----- (.704)
gillies: 500 ------ (.522)
cashman: 636 --- (.619)

tonelli: 640 ------ (.623)

PP points
barber: 280 ------ (.310)
shutt: 177 ------- (.190)
martin: 219 ------ (.320)
gilles: 197 ------- (.206)
cashman: 153 ---- (.149)

tonelli: 189 ------- (.184)

SH points
barber: 52
shutt: 1
martin: 0
gillies: 0
cashman: 4

tonelli: 7


i decided to include tonelli, even though he is not really a contemporary, b/c of curiosity. he looks good here, and has strong intangibles. this is one of the reasons why some fans think tonelli was better than gillies.

all these players were secondary offensive players (some more secondary than others), and had fairly short careers. tonelli played the longest, but he played only 1028 regular season games. cashman played 1027 games.

barber played for a defensive minded team, and was probably the best defensive player of the group, or 2nd to tonelli. martin was the very probably best offensive player.

cashman played longer, but also with esposito and orr at the same time. i think cashman was not usually on boston's dominant 1st PP.

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02-23-2013, 09:03 AM
  #723
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Joel Otto was the guy who I thought would be gone by 416, but would be a horrible reach at 353. In a division with a team that has Messier and Lindros, one team has to have Joel Otto. That will be me.

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02-23-2013, 09:27 AM
  #724
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If modo don't pick by 10:45 then I'm up right. That's 18 minutes

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02-23-2013, 09:38 AM
  #725
overpass
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JFA87-66-99 View Post
If modo don't pick by 10:45 then I'm up right. That's 18 minutes
Correct.

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