HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Atlantic Division > Montreal Canadiens
Notices

The Lars Eller Thread - Coffee Shop Edition

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
02-23-2013, 12:22 PM
  #701
Et le But
Moderator
 
Et le But's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: New York
Country: Argentina
Posts: 17,621
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
Of the actual top 5, none have played more than 2 games. The only lesson there is one anyone looking at stats should already have learned: beware of small sample sizes.
Any stat is useless out of context.

Et le But is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:23 PM
  #702
Maelpj*
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 439
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
Of the actual top 5, none have played more than 2 games. The only lesson there is one anyone looking at stats should already have learned: beware of small sample sizes.
Look at the post I posted next to it.

Eller have the WORST corsi of the Habs. Desharnais is the third best.

Those stats are complety useless, and the irony of trying to prove that Eller is better than Desharnais with this method is ridiculous.

Maelpj* is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:25 PM
  #703
Et le But
Moderator
 
Et le But's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: New York
Country: Argentina
Posts: 17,621
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maelpj View Post
Look at the post I posted next to it.

Eller have the WORST corsi of the Habs. Desharnais is the third best.

Those stats are complety useless, and the irony of trying to prove that Eller is better than Desharnais with this method is ridiculous.
So it's useless until it fits your agenda?

Et le But is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:26 PM
  #704
Maelpj*
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 439
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Et le But View Post
Any stat is useless out of context.
Than why are most of the argument anti-DD pro-Eller are based on those useless stats?

Why, before I bring those say stats, people on this thread were using corsi as a proof that Eller face better competition than DD?

Double standard.

Maelpj* is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:26 PM
  #705
SouthernHab
Registered User
 
SouthernHab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: USA
Country: United States
Posts: 9,631
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maelpj View Post
A quick research would open your eyes on the useless of corsi.

He is the top 5 of the player with best corsi:

ANDREI LOKTIONOV
ANDY MIELE
BRANDON MASHINTER
DAVID BOOTH
MAX PACIORETTY

beside pac, there is no player on this top 5 who is a starter for his team.
I agree with you. Corsi is but one statistic in a long list of statistics.

Actually seeing a player on the ice is more reliable. Eller's inability to be patient with the puck and the resulting poor passing decisions are whats preventing him from progressing. Corsi does not measure that.

SouthernHab is online now  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:27 PM
  #706
Roulin
Registered User
 
Roulin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Montreal
Posts: 4,121
vCash: 500
edit: nvm, not my battle to fight. Every stat is one piece that can be used to form an opinion. If you don't want to use it in context and along with other tools, that's up to you.

Roulin is online now  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:28 PM
  #707
Maelpj*
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 439
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Et le But View Post
So it's useless until it fits your agenda?
Did you even read my reply? I said at the end those stats are useless.

Kaberle and Cole are leading the team with the Corsi, which is absurd. I'm not the one who bring these stats here first.

Maelpj* is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:31 PM
  #708
Maelpj*
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 439
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
edit: nvm, not my battle to fight.
Before you edited your post, you affirmed that nobody was trying to use corsi to prove that Eller was facing tougher opposition that DD. Let me show you what I was talking about.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pine View Post
Although the somewhat small sample size so far, there is still a significant difference in Relative Corsi Quality of Competition. Desharnais is last among forwards with -0.090 while Plekanec stands in at 2nd with 1.721 (fyi, Bourque is 1st, Gionta is 3rd). Eller is in between them with 0.856. Meanwhile, Galchenyuk, with 0.407 ranks above Desharnais and behind Eller in terms of competition.

In terms of quality of competition amongst centers, it stands as Plekanec, Eller, Galchenyuk, Desharnais.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Et le But View Post
Interesting. It seemed to me that Desharnais was playing against better competition to start the season, but it doesn't surprise me that it changed after his start. Explains a lot, and credit to Therrien for adjusting.

This also shows why calling a line "first", "second" and "third" based entirely on their point production is deceptive. In the modern NHL you need multiple lines that do a little bit of everything.

Maelpj* is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:33 PM
  #709
Et le But
Moderator
 
Et le But's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: New York
Country: Argentina
Posts: 17,621
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maelpj View Post
Than why are most of the argument anti-DD pro-Eller are based on those useless stats?

Why, before I bring those say stats, people on this thread were using corsi as a proof that Eller face better competition than DD?

Double standard.
Pine's post was talking about Relative Corsi Quality of Competition, as in a measure to contextualize corsi by looking at difficulity of matchups faced. It's flawed but IMO corsi is useless without looking at quality of competition.

Corsi doesn't measure quality of competition. That's why Scott Gomez had a great corsi two years ago. It means one thing, it means ability to keep posession. So it's not useless, it's just useless without context. In this case it tels us -

Kaberle played sheltered minutes.

Cole isn't as bad as people are saying, and playing in the offensive zone.

Desharnais is playing well, and playing in the offensive zone.

So no, nobody is using corsi to say anything about Eller. If you are going to dismiss a statistic, try to understand its purpose first.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
Do the Corsi numbers take into account poor passes, rushed passes and missed opportunites?
Turnovers play a part in posession, yes.

Et le But is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:35 PM
  #710
Roulin
Registered User
 
Roulin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Montreal
Posts: 4,121
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maelpj View Post
Before you edited your post, you affirmed that nobody was trying to use corsi to prove that Eller was facing tougher opposition that DD. Let me show you what I was talking about.
QoC and Corsi On are very different stats. I can tell you from following these for years, QoC takes more games before settling into something reliable. Anyway, you are comparing apples to oranges. QoC uses Corsi, but is not the same.

Roulin is online now  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:37 PM
  #711
Maelpj*
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 439
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Et le But View Post

So no, nobody is using corsi to say anything about Eller. If you are going to dismiss a statistic, try to understand its purpose first.



Turnovers play a part in posession, yes.
Hope you are joking. Read the post above you.

Maelpj* is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:40 PM
  #712
Et le But
Moderator
 
Et le But's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: New York
Country: Argentina
Posts: 17,621
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maelpj View Post
Hope you are joking. Read the post above you.
For the last time, nobody mentioned Corsi when talking about Eller. QoC is very different from Corsi.

Et le But is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:48 PM
  #713
Maelpj*
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 439
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Et le But View Post
For the last time, nobody mentioned Corsi when talking about Eller. QoC is very different from Corsi.
They are still based on Corsi.

Neither are relevant to the comparaison between Eller and DD.

A conversation about the way those 2 play on the ice would be more pertinent than all the stats people try to bring in the debat DD-Eller.

Stats at 5v5, Qoc, corsi, whatever. I'm still waiting for those valid argument about Eller being a better center , at this very moment ,than DD

Maelpj* is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:50 PM
  #714
Milhouse40
Registered User
 
Milhouse40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,946
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maelpj View Post
If you can't understand how a third line player play against less competition than a first line player, discussing any further is pretty pointless.

Here is what Max had to say about DD:

“He basically taught me how to score goals by setting me up. I can admit I wasn’t a goal-scorer until probably my third year pro,” he said.

Desharnais, who will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season, topped the 60-point mark last year, yet he is often derided as too small and not dynamic enough to be a top-line centre.

Pacioretty thinks that’s nuts.

“When people doubt him, I’m like ‘bite your tongue, it’s coming’. He’s so good. Only true hockey people can understand just how good he is. I’ve never seen anyone who sees the ice the way he does,” Pacioretty added. “I want people to keep doubting him because that’s what keeps him going.”

There is a solid chemistry between the two, but no for whatever reason, we HAVE to break this and put Eller with Pac. Cause he is something REALLY special right!

Oh and by the way, you are using stats at 5 vs 5 to prove that Eller is better than DD... What about watching the game?

Galchenyuk have the most point at 5v5. Means he is the the better foward of the team right?

Kaberle have more point 5v5 than Markov...

Emelin and Gorges, more point at 5v5 than Subban...

Bourque more point at 5v5 than Plekanec..

What does it mean? The CH doesn't have superstar, but they have a bunch of good player. If a duo produce really well, you keep it like that. The number of the lines is not important, and if Eller is a good player, he will produce with Galchenyuk and Cole/prust.
The 5 on 5 points are there to prove one thing.....PP ice-time is crucial for a player's production., and i can put up a 1000 exemple if you want.

Not suggesting that one is better than other...as you do!!
Trying Eller is AN OPTION not AN OBLIGATION.

And for the Pacioretty's comments:
“It was a shock,” said Max Pacioretty, who was among the players who heard the news before captain Brian Gionta told the players prior to the start of training camp Sunday morning in Brossard. “I was sorry to hear it because he helped me a lot when I first came up. I played with him and Gio early in my career.”

Should we have keep Gomez???

Milhouse40 is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:55 PM
  #715
Maelpj*
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 439
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebinne4pres View Post

And for the Pacioretty's comments:
“It was a shock,” said Max Pacioretty, who was among the players who heard the news before captain Brian Gionta told the players prior to the start of training camp Sunday morning in Brossard. “I was sorry to hear it because he helped me a lot when I first came up. I played with him and Gio early in my career.”

Should we have keep Gomez???
“He basically taught me how to score goals by setting me up. I can admit I wasn’t a goal-scorer until probably my third year pro. “When people doubt him, I’m like ‘bite your tongue, it’s coming’. He’s so good. Only true hockey people can understand just how good he is. I’ve never seen anyone who sees the ice the way he does,” Pacioretty added. “I want people to keep doubting him because that’s what keeps him going.”

and

“I was sorry to hear it because he helped me a lot when I first came up. I played with him and Gio early in my career.”

I Think there is a slight difference in the praise.

Eller might be an option. But why right now? DD-Pac are producing and helping the team, why the need to change that? An option is when aren't doing well. Do you think putting Eller with Pac gonna transform Pac into a 3goal per game scorer?

It should be about whether or not Gionta have is place with Pleky and Bourque. Galch or Eller might bring more to this duo than Gionta.

Maelpj* is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:55 PM
  #716
Et le But
Moderator
 
Et le But's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: New York
Country: Argentina
Posts: 17,621
vCash: 500
Pacioretty never praised (or played with ) Plekanec, we bought out the wrong center.

Et le But is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:57 PM
  #717
Milhouse40
Registered User
 
Milhouse40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,946
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maelpj View Post
They are still based on Corsi.

Neither are relevant to the comparaison between Eller and DD.

A conversation about the way those 2 play on the ice would be more pertinent than all the stats people try to bring in the debat DD-Eller.

Stats at 5v5, Qoc, corsi, whatever. I'm still waiting for those valid argument about Eller being a better center , at this very moment ,than DD
By the way, i watch the games very closely

They are not the same type of players.
But here's ont valid arguments for you:

If DD doens't put up any points....he is useless!
Can't play defensively, can't play physical games, can't play anywhere but on a primarly offensive Line. That's a fact.

Eller can play anywhere....from second to 4th line, from wings to center.

DD is way better than Eller offensively....but that's about it!!

Milhouse40 is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 12:59 PM
  #718
Maelpj*
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 439
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebinne4pres View Post
By the way, i watch the games very closely

They are not the same type of players.
But here's ont valid arguments for you:

If DD doens't put up any points....he is useless!
Can't play defensively, can't play physical games, can't play anywhere but on a primarly offensive Line. That's a fact.

Eller can play anywhere....from second to 4th line, from wings to center.

DD is way better than Eller offensively....but that's about it!!
Yeah and that's what we need on our 2 first line. Goals.

At least 50% of offensive player are useless is they don't put up point.

Maelpj* is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 01:09 PM
  #719
Cyclones Rock
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 1,457
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maelpj View Post
Yeah and that's what we need on our 2 first line. Goals.

At least 50% of offensive player are useless is they don't put up point.
Eller has one goal in his last 22 games. One. That projects to 4 over a standard 82 game season. Four.

Let the fanboys spin this one any way they want. And then laugh at them.

Cyclones Rock is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 01:12 PM
  #720
cphabs
It complels you!
 
cphabs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: WNY
Country: United States
Posts: 723
vCash: 500
Lars is young, big, strong, team player, first round C, that is still developing. He has met success in, arguably, one of the worst teams for player development. The kid has something going for him IMO.

To the best of knowledge, I forget , the last time we had the level of skill Chucky brings to the ice was when we had "Sneaky Pete". That type of talent also builds a mindset for the rest of the team. Takes some time to adjust to but it makes everyone "better" after a while... He's 19 no less. I would not trade a single "O" prospect untill they play around Chucky. Just my .02

cphabs is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 01:18 PM
  #721
Playmaker09
Valar Morghulis
 
Playmaker09's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: West Island
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,720
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maelpj View Post
Yeah and that's what we need on our 2 first line. Goals.

At least 50% of offensive player are useless is they don't put up point.
I agree, which is why Desharnais is in competition with Plekanec and Galchenyuk (long term) for those two top 6 centre spots, not Eller. Desharnais is the obvious odd man out, it's only a matter of time.

Playmaker09 is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 01:33 PM
  #722
Playmaker09
Valar Morghulis
 
Playmaker09's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: West Island
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,720
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyclones Rock View Post
Eller has one goal in his last 22 games. One. That projects to 4 over a standard 82 game season. Four.

Let the fanboys spin this one any way they want. And then laugh at them.
Has anyone been saying that we should get rid of DD to put Lars on the first or second line? Of course not.

Everyone has their role. In the grand scheme of things, Eller's a big two-way 3rd line center who is effective in that role. Desharnais is a top 6 centre who is average offensively and well below average defensively with respect to the expectations that come with the position of a 2C. Furthermore, we have someone who will, in all likelihood, will surpass DD in that role in Galchenyuk.

In the end, we can't afford to keep sheltering two lines and keep spoon-feeding them offensive opportunities. Because then, we're forced to play our fourth line a lot, and in a shutdown role, which results in an ineffective use of your personnel (as shown by Eller, Moen and Prust's poor corsi numbers). To put this into perspective, Plekanec also had a poor Corsi last year. Not because he's a bad player, but because he was asked to perform a difficult task with linemates who weren't up to the job. In the long term, those offensive opportunities will be given more and more to Galchenyuk if he develops as we all hope, at the expense of DD, and not Eller.

TL;DR: Why the **** are we arguing between DD and Eller when they don't compete for the same minutes or opportunities (OZ start %, PP time, etc.). The one who will compete with DD for those minutes will be Galchenyuk, and we all know who should (eventually) come out on top. DD is just a placeholder until Gally can stand on his own two feet, at which time he becomes 100% expendable.


Last edited by Playmaker09: 02-23-2013 at 01:40 PM.
Playmaker09 is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 01:38 PM
  #723
Milhouse40
Registered User
 
Milhouse40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,946
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyclones Rock View Post
Eller has one goal in his last 22 games. One. That projects to 4 over a standard 82 game season. Four.

Let the fanboys spin this one any way they want. And then laugh at them.
I'll spin that for you....you wanna talk about goals?

Eller 16 goals last saeson with no PP time and about 14 minutes a games
DD 16 goals last season with top Powerplay time and 18 minutes a games

Is it right to assumed that Eller would have scored a couple of goals if he had top PP time as DD and 4 minutes a games more??

Anyway...did you know that DD didn't scored one goal in his last 11 games in season 2011-2012 and is didn't score in his first 6 games....17 games without a goals...top 6 center with major PP TIme

Milhouse40 is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 04:05 PM
  #724
DAChampion
Registered User
 
DAChampion's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Canberra, Australia
Country: Australia
Posts: 6,370
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maelpj View Post
Look at the post I posted next to it.

Eller have the WORST corsi of the Habs. Desharnais is the third best.

Those stats are complety useless, and the irony of trying to prove that Eller is better than Desharnais with this method is ridiculous.
You're confusing Corsi with Corsi Rel QoC.

Corsi is shots for versus shots against when the player is on the ice, including blocked and missed shots. It is not normalized for total ice time and is as such a useless statistic imo.

Corsi Rel QoC, is the average Corsi of the opposing players that a player plays against. It is normalized for total ice time.

Anyway, Corsi Rel QoC:
Plekanec +1.721
Eller +0.856
Galchenyuk +0.407
White +0.232
Desharnais -0.090

1) Can someone explain how they're all positive? Shouldn't the average Corsi Rel QoC be "0"? Is it because we play in a strong division?
2) The Corsi numbers show a challenge in playing Galchenyuk with Eller. Previously, Eller was playing tough minutes and Galchenyuk was playing easy minutes, and both make sense individually. When youu play them on the same line, you're switching the development strategy for both players by giving them intermediate minutes.

DAChampion is offline  
Old
02-23-2013, 04:42 PM
  #725
habsfanatics
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 3,436
vCash: 500
Any stat that was as far off as this was for Gomez has some serious holes. I wouldn't consider it worthless though, but I wouldn't count it as being particularly telling.

habsfanatics is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:53 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.