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Ryan O'Reilly Headed to Offer Sheet or Trade (Part 4)

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Old
02-23-2013, 09:51 PM
  #226
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Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
What is Colorado being offered? Non core players, some good, some not so.. Along with getting told 'No' on any highly touted prospect coming back. Everyone wants to give up complimentary pieces, proven or unproven. It's ridiculous...
Who cares this is fantasy GMing anyways. Nothing said on here impacts any REAL deals what so ever. At best, someone gets bragging rights if they luck out and call a trade that actually goes down.

Dater already said Sherman won't rush the trade and is more than willing to wait to get what he wants. It might go all the way to the draft unless a desperate team offers an overpayment before the trade deadline. So go to the offseason and allow the other GMs to use their compliance buyouts to get things in order then let the bidding begin.

ROR just turned 22 and is +154 in takeaways and almost 53% on face offs to go with his 107pts over 3 seasons. He did this on a rebuilding cap floor team.

Jordan Staal in his first 3 years was just +14 in takeaways, 47% on face offs to go with 119pts. Add to the fact that Staal was on a team that won the cup in his 3rd year. Things get a little easier when the opposition has to focus on Crosby and Malkin.

Anyways after looking at the numbers, the same ones the GMs look at, I'm confident the return will be good. To the team that gets ROR congrats, your team won the trade.

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Old
02-23-2013, 09:53 PM
  #227
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Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
If we were contenders, it's a nice package. But we are currently rebuilding and don't need players who are already in their prime.
You don't think Pominville and Miller would help turn the Avs in to contenders? I don't watch them very often, so I don't know how far away they are from contending.

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02-23-2013, 09:56 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by Crow View Post
You don't think Pominville and Miller would help turn the Avs in to contenders? I don't watch them very often, so I don't know how far away they are from contending.
Sure contenders, but I see it as players reaching their potential at different times problem.

Also what the hell is your avatar?

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02-23-2013, 10:04 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by Crow View Post
To COL:

Miller
Pominville

To BUF:

O'Reilly
Varlamov (or one of their other goalie prospects)
In our situation I would not do Varlamov for Miller and I would not do ROR for Pominville.

So I guess it is a No.

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02-23-2013, 10:21 PM
  #230
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Hey at least with the realignment looking the way it is, we have a better chance of trading with Phoenix. Which I think is a way better trading partner than WPG or Buffalo. But I like Yandle the best as the main piece in a trade for O'Reilly.

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02-23-2013, 10:37 PM
  #231
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crow View Post
To COL:

Miller
Pominville

To BUF:

O'Reilly
Varlamov (or one of their other goalie prospects)
No thanks.


Avs are not contending now. Our players won't hit their prime until a few years from now, by which time Pominville and Miller will both be in their mid 30s. If you want to trade Miller and Pominville, Colorado is the wrong team to look at.

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02-23-2013, 10:44 PM
  #232
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I'm so surprised this is still dragging on

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02-23-2013, 11:14 PM
  #233
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As a Jets fan who has seen ROR play about 10 games last year, I think Little is being undervalued by Avs fans and that ROR is being undervalued by Jets fans.

Little is an excellent #1 winger or #2C. I'm convinced that if he played in Pittsburgh, he'd be a 40G, 85 point guy.

Jets fans think ROR is a risk because he's only had one breakout year offensively. He's essentially a 23 year old Mike Richards. So what would we give up to get Mike Richards? My guess is:

- Little plus a 2nd round pick(or 2 second rounders) OR

- Trouba + a 2nd roudn pick OR

- Enstrom but the Avs might have to throw something back WPG's way. (Enstrom puts up similar offense as ROR as a defenseman.)

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02-23-2013, 11:33 PM
  #234
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Originally Posted by surge1979 View Post
As a Jets fan who has seen ROR play about 10 games last year, I think Little is being undervalued by Avs fans and that ROR is being undervalued by Jets fans.

Little is an excellent #1 winger or #2C. I'm convinced that if he played in Pittsburgh, he'd be a 40G, 85 point guy.

Jets fans think ROR is a risk because he's only had one breakout year offensively. He's essentially a 23 year old Mike Richards. So what would we give up to get Mike Richards? My guess is:

- Little plus a 2nd round pick(or 2 second rounders) OR

- Trouba + a 2nd roudn pick OR

- Enstrom but the Avs might have to throw something back WPG's way. (Enstrom puts up similar offense as ROR as a defenseman.)
A second round pick... Some player who has a slim chance of ever becoming an NHL player. You started out your post really good and then offered us the same weak proposals we have already seen. I'm sorry but you saying that Little would be an 85 point player on Pitt does not help with the fact that HES NOT an 85 point player, and is in fact a 25 year old who has 4 years in the league in which he only put up over 50 points once, and has not done so in three years.

Little is a complimentary player, hes not in his second season having just put up 50 points with potential to improve anymore.

Enstrom is a little on the high side in age to talk about in trade for O'Reilly. Beyond the fact that he was just extended as well. So that proposal even if it was ignorance, was pretty much hollow.

Your second one for Trouba and a second round pick? So we give up a established core level NHL player with potential on top of what hes already done, for a highly touted but none the less unproven quantity. Oh and on top of that we get that shot in the dark in the second round. Sure....

So close... but so far away.

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02-23-2013, 11:37 PM
  #235
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The comparable trade in my mind is Turris. He went for a top prospect and a second. So no, Trouba and a second is not a really bad offer.

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02-23-2013, 11:40 PM
  #236
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Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
The comparable trade in my mind is Turris. He went for a top prospect and a second. So no, Trouba and a second is not a really bad offer.
The only comparison between Turris and ROR is that they both held out. Other than that there's no comparison. ROR is 100x the complete hockey player.

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02-23-2013, 11:40 PM
  #237
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Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
The comparable trade in my mind is Turris. He went for a top prospect and a second. So no, Trouba and a second is not a really bad offer.
Comparable in situation ONLY, talk about looking at the world through your bedroom window...

Do you believe Turris and O'Reilly are the same player, or have the same value? lol...

I'll say this, what we can take away from the Turris trade is that he got a top prospect and a second round pick. All while being a holdout before ever even coming close to breaking out, or doing ANYTHING special. So O'Reilly's value should be about triple what Turris brought back.

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02-23-2013, 11:41 PM
  #238
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Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
Sure contenders, but I see it as players reaching their potential at different times problem.

Also what the hell is your avatar?
Go watch Mystery Science Theater 3000 on Netflix ASAP!!!

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Old
02-23-2013, 11:41 PM
  #239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
The comparable trade in my mind is Turris. He went for a top prospect and a second. So no, Trouba and a second is not a really bad offer.
Key difference in this situation. Turris asked for a trade, O'Reilly has not.

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02-23-2013, 11:43 PM
  #240
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Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
The comparable trade in my mind is Turris. He went for a top prospect and a second. So no, Trouba and a second is not a really bad offer.
Kyle Turris was older with far less experience and worse statistics at the time of his trade last season.

The truth is there's no blueprint for most trades. There appears to be a blueprint, but then that blueprint is overwritten by what actually transpires in a more recent deal.

2

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02-23-2013, 11:58 PM
  #241
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Ryan O'Reilly
2nd '13



Nikolai Kulemin
Jake Gardiner

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Old
02-23-2013, 11:59 PM
  #242
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Any actual update on this situation?

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02-24-2013, 12:01 AM
  #243
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Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
Comparable in situation ONLY, talk about looking at the world through your bedroom window...

Do you believe Turris and O'Reilly are the same player, or have the same value? lol...

I'll say this, what we can take away from the Turris trade is that he got a top prospect and a second round pick. All while being a holdout before ever even coming close to breaking out, or doing ANYTHING special. So O'Reilly's value should be about triple what Turris brought back.
Triple?

So...three top prospects and three second rounders?

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02-24-2013, 12:05 AM
  #244
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Originally Posted by Iracundia View Post

Who cares this is fantasy GMing anyways. Nothing said on here impacts any REAL deals what so ever. At best, someone gets bragging rights if they luck out and call a trade that actually goes down.

Dater already said Sherman won't rush the trade and is more than willing to wait to get what he wants. It might go all the way to the draft unless a desperate team offers an overpayment before the trade deadline. So go to the offseason and allow the other GMs to use their compliance buyouts to get things in order then let the bidding begin.

ROR just turned 22 and is +154 in takeaways and almost 53% on face offs to go with his 107pts over 3 seasons. He did this on a rebuilding cap floor team.

Jordan Staal in his first 3 years was just +14 in takeaways, 47% on face offs to go with 119pts. Add to the fact that Staal was on a team that won the cup in his 3rd year. Things get a little easier when the opposition has to focus on Crosby and Malkin.

Anyways after looking at the numbers, the same ones the GMs look at, I'm confident the return will be good. To the team that gets ROR congrats, your team won the trade.
Jordan Staal did nt get the icetime ROR did. Especially the PP time.

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Old
02-24-2013, 12:17 AM
  #245
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Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
Comparable in situation ONLY, talk about looking at the world through your bedroom window...

Do you believe Turris and O'Reilly are the same player, or have the same value? lol...

I'll say this, what we can take away from the Turris trade is that he got a top prospect and a second round pick. All while being a holdout before ever even coming close to breaking out, or doing ANYTHING special. So O'Reilly's value should be about triple what Turris brought back.
Do you believe that Rundbland and Trouba are the same player or have the same value?

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02-24-2013, 12:17 AM
  #246
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Any actual update on this situation?
not really.

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02-24-2013, 12:20 AM
  #247
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Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
A second round pick... Some player who has a slim chance of ever becoming an NHL player. You started out your post really good and then offered us the same weak proposals we have already seen. I'm sorry but you saying that Little would be an 85 point player on Pitt does not help with the fact that HES NOT an 85 point player, and is in fact a 25 year old who has 4 years in the league in which he only put up over 50 points once, and has not done so in three years.

Little is a complimentary player, hes not in his second season having just put up 50 points with potential to improve anymore.

Enstrom is a little on the high side in age to talk about in trade for O'Reilly. Beyond the fact that he was just extended as well. So that proposal even if it was ignorance, was pretty much hollow.

Your second one for Trouba and a second round pick? So we give up a established core level NHL player with potential on top of what hes already done, for a highly touted but none the less unproven quantity. Oh and on top of that we get that shot in the dark in the second round. Sure....

So close... but so far away.
First off, WPG's second pick is likely going to be the 31 - 37 range in the deepest draft since 2003. Lots of great players drafted in that range, including ROR. In any other year, I would agree that a 2nd round pick doesn't have a ton of value but this year is an anomaly.

You seem to be framing this as if Little has hit an offensive ceiling at 50 points while ROR has much greater potential. Realistically, what do you think his potenital is? If I were a gambler and had to bet on who would likely have a higher career PPG - I really don't think its a stretch to put money on Little, especially if we're considering OHL production to present (which I'd imagine bookies might do).

ROR's true value is his defensive and physical game IMO. In those respects, he's a definite upgrade over Little but its not as though Little is a floater - he's a solid 2 way forward who kills penalties.

As for the Trouba and 2nd offer....you're right, Trouba hasn't played an NHL game so you can't take it to the bank...yet. But most pro scouts and analysts would. I was basically just throwing it out there because COL was looking for a stud defenseman. When you consider what PHX got for Kyle Turris last year, I'd say Trouba + isn't a terrible offer.

Re: Enstrom....He's 28 years old and I really think you need to look him up on hockeydb if you think that was an ignorant proposal.

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02-24-2013, 12:23 AM
  #248
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Do you believe that Rundbland and Trouba are the same player or have the same value?
Not at this point and time, but actually Rundbland was thought of more highly than Gormley. Along with having also just torn up the SEL.

Triple may be exaggeration but it fit the point I was making, O'Reilly is worth significantly more.

Quote:
Originally Posted by surge1979 View Post
First off, WPG's second pick is likely going to be the 31 - 37 range in the deepest draft since 2003. Lots of great players drafted in that range, including ROR. In any other year, I would agree that a 2nd round pick doesn't have a ton of value but this year is an anomaly.

You seem to be framing this as if Little has hit an offensive ceiling at 50 points while ROR has much greater potential. Realistically, what do you think his potenital is? If I were a gambler and had to bet on who would likely have a higher career PPG - I really don't think its a stretch to put money on Little, especially if we're considering OHL production to present (which I'd imagine bookies might do).

ROR's true value is his defensive and physical game IMO. In those respects, he's a definite upgrade over Little but its not as though Little is a floater - he's a solid 2 way forward who kills penalties.

As for the Trouba and 2nd offer....you're right, Trouba hasn't played an NHL game so you can't take it to the bank...yet. But most pro scouts and analysts would. I was basically just throwing it out there because COL was looking for a stud defenseman. When you consider what PHX got for Kyle Turris last year, I'd say Trouba + isn't a terrible offer.

Re: Enstrom....He's 28 years old and I really think you need to look him up on hockeydb if you think that was an ignorant proposal.
The Enstrom proposal was ignorant in regards to the reality of him actually being moved, based on him just being extended. I thought that was clear. Yes Enstrom is 28 years old, and O'Reilly is 22... We are also a team 2-3 years from completing a rebuild in which by that time Enstrom would be in his 30s.

Based on the Turris trade Trouba + 2nd isn't terrible? O'Reilly is worth a lot more than Turris, so a similar return in trade is weak.

I'm sorry but you can talk Little up all day, fact of the matter is hes 25, with 4 and a half years in the league. His 50 point 30 goal season was four years ago and he hasn't performed to the same level since. Along with being on the SAME EXACT point production pace that we have seen for the last 3. How long can you beat the 'he has potential drum' when a player has shown you the same thing year in and year out while getting plenty of opportunity and ice time to boot? Little might have some untapped production in him, but the chances of that are fairly limited when there is that much history to look at.

I'm glad you would put your money on Little out producing O'Reilly. Even though in the first three years O'Reilly put up 107 points and Little put up 101... Also while doing it at a younger age, considering O'Reilly broke in at 18 in a harder position as well. But sure... go ahead and put your money on Little out producing O'Reilly over his career. I don't know what bookies would do, but I can tell you one thing for sure. All that matters over a players NHL career, is what hes done in his NHL career.


What makes O'Reilly special is his defensive prowess (Getting Selke consideration) ALONG WITH the offensive potential hes 'shown' 'recently', while also playing against other teams best players.


Last edited by CobraAcesS: 02-24-2013 at 12:48 AM.
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Old
02-24-2013, 12:24 AM
  #249
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- Little plus a 2nd round pick(or 2 second rounders) OR

- Trouba + a 2nd roudn pick
Are you saying that Trouba's value in a trade is as high as Little's? Because you're really overvaluing your prospects if that's what you're saying.

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02-24-2013, 12:32 AM
  #250
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Kyle Turris was older with far less experience and worse statistics at the time of his trade last season.

The truth is there's no blueprint for most trades. There appears to be a blueprint, but then that blueprint is overwritten by what actually transpires in a more recent deal.

2
Correct. One thing the EASports group just doesnt get. Turris and his skill were unmistakable. Everyone in the hockey knew his talent.

O'Reilly is still sort of an unknown. Spoken of a great two way player but he really didnt kill penalties and he's a negative player? Was the 50 pts an oddity or should it be presumed that's who he is? Can he do better than that or is he simply a 2/3 guy who will never be more? Why was his contract in the KHL voided and is his foot a concern? That's why nobody's lining up offering Trouba and Little or some other crazy cost.

It's hard to put a cost on a guy who might or might not develop into this or that.

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