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Leafs/Sens | Saturday, February 23 | No one injured. Night a success.

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Old
02-24-2013, 03:11 PM
  #126
OD99
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Me too but...

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Originally Posted by Milan the Great View Post
31 games now with no goals for Smith. Good thing he can be effective when not scoring and was last night against Toronto.

Hoping he can score soon. I feel like once he breaks out of his slump he'll be scoring some more.

Smith just isn't a natural scorer - I am still trying to figure out how he had such a hot start last season but I didn't think he would ever score 10 in a season and I still think going forward that will be the case.

Like him a lot and want to see him score but I am not holding my breath

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02-24-2013, 03:15 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by OD99 View Post
Smith just isn't a natural scorer - I am still trying to figure out how he had such a hot start last season but I didn't think he would ever score 10 in a season and I still think going forward that will be the case.

Like him a lot and want to see him score but I am not holding my breath
i disagree smith has a bomb of a shot and we saw that last season and a few times this season. i really think he should be on the PP, 2nd unit, on the RW so he can use his one timer. anyone else notice he has a hell of a one timer??

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02-24-2013, 03:19 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by praisealfie11 View Post
i disagree smith has a bomb of a shot and we saw that last season and a few times this season. i really think he should be on the PP, 2nd unit, on the RW so he can use his one timer. anyone else notice he has a hell of a one timer??
Yup. I think he definitely has the tools to put together some good goal scoring years.

A nice, heavy shot. Needs to hit the net more.

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02-24-2013, 03:26 PM
  #129
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It's funny because in the warm up Smith has one of the best shot on the team. He alway hits the top corners and has good power on his shot. You could swear the guy is a 40 goals scorer but for some reason he can't make the same kind of shot in real game.. Maybe his release is not quick enought ?

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02-24-2013, 03:58 PM
  #130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathieu View Post
It's funny because in the warm up Smith has one of the best shot on the team. He alway hits the top corners and has good power on his shot. You could swear the guy is a 40 goals scorer but for some reason he can't make the same kind of shot in real game.. Maybe his release is not quick enought ?
Decision making, gripping his stick a bit because of his slump.

He'll start scoring some goals. He just needs to settle his game down a bit -- he's playing very well away from the puck though and that's mostly what he's there for. His faceoffs have been great, too.

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02-24-2013, 04:08 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by Mathieu View Post
It's funny because in the warm up Smith has one of the best shot on the team. He alway hits the top corners and has good power on his shot. You could swear the guy is a 40 goals scorer but for some reason he can't make the same kind of shot in real game.. Maybe his release is not quick enought ?
yep, was just gonna say. Smith is a warmup superstar. Super skilled

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02-24-2013, 06:32 PM
  #132
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That says pretty much all you need to know about judging players from the warmup, doesn't it?

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02-24-2013, 07:32 PM
  #133
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Why Da Costa is back in Bingo while Smith gets major ice-time is beyond me. He needs to stay on the 3rd line with limited minutes and we need a guy like Stephane who can actually create offense on the 2nd. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.

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02-24-2013, 07:46 PM
  #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by L'Aveuglette View Post
Why Da Costa is back in Bingo while Smith gets major ice-time is beyond me. He needs to stay on the 3rd line with limited minutes and we need a guy like Stephane who can actually create offense on the 2nd. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.
Smith is being used to shutdown the top line of the opposition. Therefore he will get equivalent, or near equivalent, ice time to the line he is defending against.

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02-24-2013, 07:50 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by Bileur View Post
I posted it somewhere in the GDT but I think it bears repeating. I've been a little dissapointed by Dziurzynski's physical play. He needs to finish his hits better and take the opportunity to lay guys out when they present themselves. He's not here to play like Peter Regin. He needs to look at how Smith and Neil play and do what they do.

He had a chance to crush Kadri in open ice last night with Smith hedging him over and chose to attempt a pokecheck instead. It would have been a huge momentum builder but he missed the poke instead.
Dziurzynski is probably just adjusting to the speed of the NHL. It is harder to catch a player with a hit in the NHL than in the AHL. Anyone who has watched him play in Bingo can attest to the fact that he is a big hitter.

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02-24-2013, 09:45 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by Bruiser View Post
Dziurzynski is probably just adjusting to the speed of the NHL. It is harder to catch a player with a hit in the NHL than in the AHL. Anyone who has watched him play in Bingo can attest to the fact that he is a big hitter.
I would also think that the refs watch those mismatches carefully & if DD were to nail a smaller player like Kadri it would have to be a very clean hit so that he isn't accused of a dirty hit. Then one of TO's goons would want to drop the gloves with him, then Cherry would be all over him for head hunting a smaller player & the NHL would look to suspend him. Then TO players would be looking to take out Turris or Silfverberg, tit for tat, eye for an eye.

Also keep in mind that everybody in the NHL is protecting TO players & no one would be on our side. It's probably why Smith didn't kick the **** out of Kadri when he had the chance. Just saying, DD has to be careful.

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02-24-2013, 10:38 PM
  #137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruiser View Post
Smith is being used to shutdown the top line of the opposition. Therefore he will get equivalent, or near equivalent, ice time to the line he is defending against.
Smith isn't being used in a shut down role at all whatsoever.

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02-24-2013, 10:43 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by Officer Farva View Post
Smith isn't being used in a shut down role at all whatsoever.
looked to me like they are matching DD-S-N to the opposing teams' top lines. They were on the ice against the kessel line most of the time last night.

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02-24-2013, 11:14 PM
  #139
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Smith is absolutely being used for his defensive capabilities.

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02-24-2013, 11:22 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by danishh View Post
looked to me like they are matching DD-S-N to the opposing teams' top lines. They were on the ice against the kessel line most of the time last night.
Yep. Smith's line was on against Kessel's line most of the night.

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Old
02-24-2013, 11:55 PM
  #141
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Stephane Da Coste:
Ozone start%: 73.8
Ozone finish%: 59.6
Relative corsi: 2.0 (the difference in attempted shots for/against when the player is on the ice, rather than on the bench)
Corsi rel QoC: -2.778 (the average relative corsi of the opposing team's players on the ice at the same time as Da Costa)
Corsi on: 16.18


Zack Smith:
Ozone start%: 44.2
Ozone finish%: 52.7
Relative corsi: 4.6
Corsi rel QoC: 0.802
Corsi on: 14.23

What do we get out of this?

Well, Zach Smith takes more defensive draws than any other center on the team, against the opposition's best players, yet the Sens get more attempted shots on goal when he is on the ice than any other center but Zibanejad, and the puck ends up in the other team's zone more often than not. He's the perfect player for a Paul Maclean puck possession system.

In contrast to this, SDC has more offensive zone starts than anyone on the team (he's out for a Sedin-like number of ozone shifts), against weaker opposition, yet his relcorsi is a meager 2.0, despite being spoonfed golden offensive opportunities compared to other centers on the team. He's playing extremely sheltered minutes, yet somehow barely creating more offense than Smith, who plays the team's toughest defensive minutes.

Anyone wondering about why SDC got sent down instead of Zibanejad, or why Smith is playing as our 2nd line C instead of SDC, just needs to look at the underlying numbers to realize that both Zibanejad and Smith are great at playing a puck possession game, while SDC has a lot of room to improve. Da Costa starts in the offensive zone 30% more often than Smith, against weaker opposition, but his absolute corsi is only 2.0 higher. That means that, while he's generating a lot more chances than he's seeing chances against, he's barely generating more than Smith, who starts in the defensive zone under half the time, rather than 3/4 of the time.

e: And as a sidenote, both SDC and Smith are having terrible luck this year with their team on ice shooting percentages, with Smith sitting at 3.2 and Da Costa sitting at 0. Both of those should normalize to ~5-10% over time.


Last edited by burf: 02-25-2013 at 12:12 AM.
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02-25-2013, 09:01 AM
  #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burf View Post
Stephane Da Coste:
Ozone start%: 73.8
Ozone finish%: 59.6
Relative corsi: 2.0 (the difference in attempted shots for/against when the player is on the ice, rather than on the bench)
Corsi rel QoC: -2.778 (the average relative corsi of the opposing team's players on the ice at the same time as Da Costa)
Corsi on: 16.18


Zack Smith:
Ozone start%: 44.2
Ozone finish%: 52.7
Relative corsi: 4.6
Corsi rel QoC: 0.802
Corsi on: 14.23

What do we get out of this?

Well, Zach Smith takes more defensive draws than any other center on the team, against the opposition's best players, yet the Sens get more attempted shots on goal when he is on the ice than any other center but Zibanejad, and the puck ends up in the other team's zone more often than not. He's the perfect player for a Paul Maclean puck possession system.

In contrast to this, SDC has more offensive zone starts than anyone on the team (he's out for a Sedin-like number of ozone shifts), against weaker opposition, yet his relcorsi is a meager 2.0, despite being spoonfed golden offensive opportunities compared to other centers on the team. He's playing extremely sheltered minutes, yet somehow barely creating more offense than Smith, who plays the team's toughest defensive minutes.

Anyone wondering about why SDC got sent down instead of Zibanejad, or why Smith is playing as our 2nd line C instead of SDC, just needs to look at the underlying numbers to realize that both Zibanejad and Smith are great at playing a puck possession game, while SDC has a lot of room to improve. Da Costa starts in the offensive zone 30% more often than Smith, against weaker opposition, but his absolute corsi is only 2.0 higher. That means that, while he's generating a lot more chances than he's seeing chances against, he's barely generating more than Smith, who starts in the defensive zone under half the time, rather than 3/4 of the time.

e: And as a sidenote, both SDC and Smith are having terrible luck this year with their team on ice shooting percentages, with Smith sitting at 3.2 and Da Costa sitting at 0. Both of those should normalize to ~5-10% over time.
I saw the word corsi and stopped reading.

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Old
02-25-2013, 09:06 AM
  #143
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Originally Posted by WantEggRoll View Post
I saw the word corsi and stopped reading.
Me too.

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02-25-2013, 09:09 AM
  #144
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Originally Posted by Bileur View Post
I posted it somewhere in the GDT but I think it bears repeating. I've been a little dissapointed by Dziurzynski's physical play. He needs to finish his hits better and take the opportunity to lay guys out when they present themselves. He's not here to play like Peter Regin. He needs to look at how Smith and Neil play and do what they do.

He had a chance to crush Kadri in open ice last night with Smith hedging him over and chose to attempt a pokecheck instead. It would have been a huge momentum builder but he missed the poke instead.
DD, is probably playing very cautiously. I doubt he wants to take a dumb penalty and get sent back to Bingo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by L'Aveuglette View Post
Why Da Costa is back in Bingo while Smith gets major ice-time is beyond me. He needs to stay on the 3rd line with limited minutes and we need a guy like Stephane who can actually create offense on the 2nd. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.
Someone had to be sent back with the Lehner callup, Smith would have to clear waivers, that's a good enough reason right there ( without even going into corsi )

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02-25-2013, 09:15 AM
  #145
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Originally Posted by WantEggRoll View Post
I saw the word corsi and stopped reading.

GOD I hated STATS class!!!

I like Decosta's skill but he is nowhere as physical on the puck as Smith. Smith battles much more successfully in the corners and comes out with the puck much more often. If Decosta doesn't fit into the top two lines and lines 3/4 tend to be more physical/grinders, he is better off developing top 3 minutes in the A then called up as needed.

Anybody have an updates on Boro?

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Old
02-25-2013, 12:33 PM
  #146
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Originally Posted by WantEggRoll View Post
I saw the word corsi and stopped reading.
Ignoring useful performance metrics just because of some hatred for advanced stats is pointless. I'm not claiming that corsi is the end-all of player evaluation. But you can't deny that "shots attempted minus shots attempted against" while a player is on the ice is a useful metric for judging a) puck possession, and b) when combined with other stats, offensive/defensive impact.

And in this case, despite Da Costa starting in the offensive zone nearly twice as much as Smith, and facing much weaker opposition, they both register almost identical shots for minus shots against. When you look at Da Costa's ozone start % and quality of competition, and consider that he SHOULD have way more shots for than shots against, the fact that he's barely outperforming Smith and Zibanejad tells you that you're wasting those golden offensive opportunities by putting him out there instead of one of the other centers. In fact, by spoonfeeding him all of those soft ozone starts, you're actually hurting Smith/Turris/Zibanejad's ability, since those opportunities are being concentrated for Da Costa, instead of being spread out among the other centers. Simply put, Da Costa isn't a good puck possession player right now, while Zibanejad and Smith are. In a Paul Maclean system, where your primary concern with centers is puck possession ability and ability to control the play, SDC doesn't help the team nearly as much as the other centers, and it's no surprise why he got sent down.

You'll see the same thing with Condra and Zibanejad if you look at their underlying stats too, and the 3 of them are a big reason that we're having the success that we are.


Last edited by burf: 02-25-2013 at 12:45 PM.
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Old
02-25-2013, 12:44 PM
  #147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by L'Aveuglette View Post
Why Da Costa is back in Bingo while Smith gets major ice-time is beyond me. He needs to stay on the 3rd line with limited minutes and we need a guy like Stephane who can actually create offense on the 2nd. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.
Da Costa was taking steps in the wrong direction before being sent back. Smith has created a number of chances, too, without burying one. He's a very effective player on this team.

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Originally Posted by Northern Neighbour View Post
Yep. Smith's line was on against Kessel's line most of the night.
Ditto Tavares in the NYI game.

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02-25-2013, 02:12 PM
  #148
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Originally Posted by praisealfie11 View Post
i disagree smith has a bomb of a shot and we saw that last season and a few times this season. i really think he should be on the PP, 2nd unit, on the RW so he can use his one timer. anyone else notice he has a hell of a one timer??
Only if the pass is teed up on a silver platter.

Good one timers are evaluated not only on the shot itself but a combination of how good the shot and how poor/good the pass was. Steve stamkos can take a bullet pass sent a head of his front foot, make th adjustment and let go of an elite one timer.

Smith has a great one timer compared to other bottom 6 players around the league. I like him, always have, and he can score more than he is. But you're pp is less over the long haul with him on it.

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02-25-2013, 02:55 PM
  #149
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02-25-2013, 02:59 PM
  #150
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I saw the word corsi and stopped reading.
Same. Im getting pretty tied of people trotting out this stat and claiming it is the be all and end all.

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