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Should more Swedish and Finnish forward prospects come to the CHL?

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Old
02-25-2013, 04:35 AM
  #26
The Saw Is the Law
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarnov View Post
If you take a look at how CHL route has worked for Finns in the past it seems almost like it's cursed. Over 100 players and the only one who made it to NHL is Esa Tikkanen who played only 2 games in WHL. Let's see if Määttä is able to make a career in NA after CHL.

Finns in QMJHL
Finns in OHL
Finns in WHL
Wow, that's terrible record

Pirjetä 16games WHL, 146 NHL
Marjamäki 179 WHL, 1 NHL game
Tikkanen 2 WHL games, 877 in NHL
Osala 122 in OHL, 3 in NHL

I could have missed someone but out of ~100 players only one had NHL career and he played just 2 games in WHL

Safe to say: Going to CHL is not Finns highway to NHL.

Swedes I spotted: Oduya, Landeskog, Lehner, Rakell, Sjöström, Backlund

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Old
02-25-2013, 05:14 AM
  #27
RyanHPscout
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The most simplistic way to put this is.. It depends on the player.

Some players have proven to thrive in the CHL, some have really hurt their stock as a prospect. At the end of the day, it all depends on the player. You simply can't give a yes or no answer becasue if it was me, I would be advising yes or no on a player by player basis. It's a risky move for any player. One that can pay off or backfire. It goes way beyond playing style and includes maturity of the player, if they are able to made the adjustments and the luck of the draw landing in a situation that is benefical for the player.

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Old
02-25-2013, 05:46 AM
  #28
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MPS was treated wrongly (he was rushed) by the Oilers, many Swedish posters already wrote on the Oiler-boards that he needed AHL-time before he should have played in the NHL. It was quite obvious if you had followed him in SEL so I don't think that MPS is a good example, it was more that Oilers scouts hadn't done their job/the Oilers didn't listen to the scouts for some reason. Had he started in the AHL from the beginning then he would probably have been in a completely different situation now.

To answer the OPs question, no I don't think more Swedish players should go to the CHL. If anything they should stay in SEL longer than they do instead of going to a lesser league (AHL).

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Old
02-25-2013, 06:23 AM
  #29
jarnov
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AE View Post
Compared to similar prospects who stayed, a lot of them in the NHL now? (not Swedes atleast, if you're a second grade prospect, chances of making it are slim, regardless of where you play).
Well I tried to collect here list of Finns who have played in CHL and have been drafted in NHL between 1990-2009. It's possible I missed someone but the list below should be quite comprehensive.

Riku Helenius drafted 15th overall / 1 NHL game
Tuomas Grönman 29/38
Tomek Valtonen 56/0
Masi Marjamäki 66/1
Tuukka Mäkelä 66/0
Jyri Niemi 72/0
Oskar Osala 97/3
Toni Rajala 101/0
Niko Snelmann 105/0
Joni Lehto 111/0
Aki Seitsonen 118/0
Robert Nyholm 129/0
Lasse Pirjetä 133/146
Eero Kilpeläinen 144/0
Juuso Puustinen 149/0
Rasmus Rissanen 178/0
Matias Sointu 182/0
Tommi Kivistö 208/0
Joni Lindlöf 209/0
Petteri Similä 211/0
Samu Isosalo 230/0
Petja Pietiläinen 256/0
Niko Vainio 259/0
Juha-Pekka Ketola 287/0
Lauri Kinos 293/0

And meanwhile players with similar draft numbers.

Sami Kapanen drafted 87th /831 games
Janne Laukkanen 156/407
Niko Kapanen 173/397
Antti Laaksonen 191/483
Jussi Jokinen 192/553
Antti Miettinen 224/518
Sami Salo 239/779
Mikko Eloranta 247/264
Kimmo Timonen 250/990
Pekka Rinne 258/267


Yes I know I just did cherry picking among non-CHLers. But if I do the same among CHLers, I get Lasse Pirjetä, Tuomas Grönman, Oskar Osala, Masi Marjamäki, Niko Snellman, Aki Seitsonen, and then some worse players.


Last edited by jarnov: 02-26-2013 at 03:56 AM. Reason: added three missing players to CHL list
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Old
02-25-2013, 06:30 AM
  #30
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One thing to keep in mind, Finns have to go through military service. Usually you start it at 18-20. Mikko Koivu postboned it so many times he actuelly had to serve when he was what, 27?

I know it's a factor for many players, getting the service out the way before crossing the pond

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02-25-2013, 06:59 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarnov View Post
Well I tried to collect here list of Finns who have played in CHL and have been drafted in NHL between 1990-2009. It's possible I missed someone but the list below should be quite comprehensive.

Riku Helenius drafted 15th overall / 1 NHL game
Tuomas Grönman 29/38
Tomek Valtonen 56/0
Masi Marjamäki 66/1
Tuukka Mäkelä 66/0
Jyri Niemi 72/0
Oskar Osala 97/3
Toni Rajala 101/0
Niko Snelmann 105/0
Joni Lehto 111/0
Aki Seitsonen 118/0
Robert Nyholm 129/0
Lasse Pirjetä 133/146
Eero Kilpeläinen 144/0
Juuso Puustinen 149/0
Matias Sointu 182/0
Tommi Kivistö 208/0
Joni Lindlöf 209/0
Petteri Similä 211/0
Samu Isosalo 230/0
Petja Pietiläinen 256/0
Lauri Kinos 293/0

And meanwhile players with similar draft numbers.

Sami Kapanen drafted 87th /831 games
Janne Laukkanen 156/407
Niko Kapanen 173/397
Antti Laaksonen 191/483
Jussi Jokinen 192/553
Antti Miettinen 224/518
Sami Salo 239/779
Mikko Eloranta 247/264
Kimmo Timonen 250/990
Pekka Rinne 258/267


Yes I know I just did cherry picking among non-CHLers. But if I do the same among CHLers, I get Lasse Pirjetä, Tuomas Grönman, Oskar Osala, Masi Marjamäki, Niko Snellman, Aki Seitsonen, and then some worse players.
There's a fairly high number of players that weren't regarded as top end prospects to begin with that played in the CHL or they lacked something in their game or abilities or had flaw that wasn't corrected in CHL or later (poor skating, shooting, offensive awareness, consistency etc.) I think ever Finn knows that for forwards the inability to score is trait that can't be fixed no matter the league you play in. The latter list on the other hand has a lot late bloomers.

In general, it all depends on each players individual situation. If they're in a good domestic club with good coaching and can expect to see plenty of ice time, then they're better off staying. Olli Määttä would have played at Mestis because JYP were so stacked he would have gotten little icetime there, so going to one of best organizations and player developers in the CHL was a no-brainer. A-juniors is not a very high quality league currently so even playing there might not be a good option if you have a chance to go good CHL club.

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Old
02-25-2013, 07:46 AM
  #32
jarnov
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jussi View Post
There's a fairly high number of players that weren't regarded as top end prospects to begin with that played in the CHL or they lacked something in their game or abilities or had flaw that wasn't corrected in CHL or later (poor skating, shooting, offensive awareness, consistency etc.)
Sure but if we think statistically relevant player mass and assume that NHL teams know how to draft, on average players with similar draft numbers should have similar strengths and weaknesses, similar overall quality and similar probability to make a breakthrough in NHL.

So if we have 1000 Finnish draftees from both CHL and Finnish leagues, we should have same amount of hits, misses, late bloomers etc. It's confusing that there isn't a single hit among CHLers.

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02-25-2013, 07:54 AM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarnov View Post
Well I tried to collect here list of Finns who have played in CHL and have been drafted in NHL between 1990-2009. It's possible I missed someone but the list below should be quite comprehensive.

Riku Helenius drafted 15th overall / 1 NHL game
Tuomas Grönman 29/38
Tomek Valtonen 56/0
Masi Marjamäki 66/1
Tuukka Mäkelä 66/0
Jyri Niemi 72/0
Oskar Osala 97/3
Toni Rajala 101/0
Niko Snelmann 105/0
Joni Lehto 111/0
Aki Seitsonen 118/0
Robert Nyholm 129/0
Lasse Pirjetä 133/146
Eero Kilpeläinen 144/0
Juuso Puustinen 149/0
Matias Sointu 182/0
Tommi Kivistö 208/0
Joni Lindlöf 209/0
Petteri Similä 211/0
Samu Isosalo 230/0
Petja Pietiläinen 256/0
Lauri Kinos 293/0

And meanwhile players with similar draft numbers.

Sami Kapanen drafted 87th /831 games
Janne Laukkanen 156/407
Niko Kapanen 173/397
Antti Laaksonen 191/483
Jussi Jokinen 192/553
Antti Miettinen 224/518
Sami Salo 239/779
Mikko Eloranta 247/264
Kimmo Timonen 250/990
Pekka Rinne 258/267


Yes I know I just did cherry picking among non-CHLers. But if I do the same among CHLers, I get Lasse Pirjetä, Tuomas Grönman, Oskar Osala, Masi Marjamäki, Niko Snellman, Aki Seitsonen, and then some worse players.
Most of the people in your second list are somewhat late bloomers, not drafted or played in their first (few) eligible years.
Can't really compare them because it wouldn't mattered where they played their juniors, there weren't good enough either way.

Sweden and Finland have a well developed system where good players and talents will be developed, while they can live at home eating moms food.
Due to that, few people leave and most who do, aren't the best prospects who try to get an edge over similar prospects.

There simply isn't any point in leaving for the CHL if you're a NHL quality prospect and that's why you have those numbers. Which may look as CHL can't develop Swedes and Finns, while the truth might be that "you can't polish a turd" regardless of where you are in the world.

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02-25-2013, 08:11 AM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AE View Post
Most of the people in your second list are somewhat late bloomers, not drafted or played in their first (few) eligible years.
Can't really compare them because it wouldn't mattered where they played their juniors, there weren't good enough either way.
All the players I listed are drafted. You're right about some players in CHL list being in the beginning of their careers. It's still possible that for example Rajala makes an NHL career after all.

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02-25-2013, 08:22 AM
  #35
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Numbers and results may be true but I wouldnt put a lot of weight into it. The attrit rate for non 1st round picks is very high across the board. Grows exponentially the lower in the draft you go.

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02-25-2013, 03:05 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by jarnov View Post
All the players I listed are drafted. You're right about some players in CHL list being in the beginning of their careers. It's still possible that for example Rajala makes an NHL career after all.
Draft pick doesn't guarantee an NHL career. Majority of NHL draftees don't make it to the NHL.

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Old
02-25-2013, 04:25 PM
  #37
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Can't speak for others, but in Granlunds case it may have helped had he left for north america a year earlier. He got used to doing stuff that worked in the FEL, and now has a hard time unlearning those things.

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02-26-2013, 12:11 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Jussi View Post
Draft pick doesn't guarantee an NHL career. Majority of NHL draftees don't make it to the NHL.
But if you have a 100 drafted Finnish players playing in the CHL and nobody will be a NHL player and nobody will "bloom late". How come there is so much better late bloom rate within the Finnish NHL draftees who stay in Finland.

I understand very few draft picks will have an NHL career. But less than a percent? Not one NHL player out of a pool that has two first rounders in it? And again why that percent is that much higher within draftees that stayed in Finland.

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02-26-2013, 02:39 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by PhillyPhinn View Post
Can't speak for others, but in Granlunds case it may have helped had he left for north america a year earlier. He got used to doing stuff that worked in the FEL, and now has a hard time unlearning those things.
It wouldn't have helped, because the same stuff worked in the AHL too (to a certain extent). He needs to learn not to do things the way he used to, but I don't think a season in a Canadian junior league would've made much of a difference.

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02-26-2013, 03:55 AM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jussi View Post
Draft pick doesn't guarantee an NHL career. Majority of NHL draftees don't make it to the NHL.
Of course it doesn't. I know most draftees (with low draft number) are busts and those who make a career in NHL are exceptions, but my question here is why these exceptions are virtually absent among Finns drafted from CHL.

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02-26-2013, 04:26 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by topchowda View Post
I have noticed that many Nordic forward prospects play in the SEL and FEL pre draft and then come to the NHL. I have also noticed that upon arrival in the NHL they a longer time adjusting to the NHL style.

For example MPS and Granlund are two recent players.

On the other hand Swedish defenseman are flourishing in the NHL and at a relatively young age after playing in the SEL.

Should Swedish forwards do what many young Russian forwards do and enter into the CHL as to learn the style of player better. And would this benefit them in the future
I think you are correct with the early part, about them taking longer time to adjust.

But, I do not think they should go over earlier. I with great certainty think its the opposite, and for every "Elias" there are many more examples of positive suprises from players that stayed.

First of all, I want to say that there only are "ifs" in this discussion, we never "know" what would have happend had a kid like Granlund done something else. And while I feel that the general rule is pretty strong, I can definitely admit that its possible that there are exceptions and for all I know the exceptions don't has to be that "rare" (and especially for D's, but we are dicussing forwards here). But, I've followed this issue pretty darn closely for 15-20 years now (man times flies), and I definitely feel that the trends and general rule is pretty strong. It is very often better to stay in Europe longer.

There is a couple of things here you need to take into account:
1. Granlund played in the CHL is not the same thing as a kid from Canada playing in the CHL. Its definitely not only about what program is best, its apples in one program or oranges in the same program. Here is why.

Granlund is born in Finland and needs to adjust when he is 17-18 y/o or when he is 20-21 y/o. A Canadian kid never have to adjust. Most 17 y/o has some areas of their game they really need to work on. If Granlund stays in Finland when he is 17 y/o, he can work on that area, and concentrate on that only so to speak.

I've several times seen a good looking kid go to NA early from Europe, the said kid has a bit of a weakness in his game but its not something you worry overly about. But its definitely a trend that they aren't able to correct that flaw as well as you would have expected had he stayed. Why? This kid would have to learn to live on his own, learn to play with new teammates, learn to play for a new coach, in a new rink, in a very diffrent type of game, learn a new language -- etc etc etc etc etc -- all while learning to shoot or skate or play defense or whatever or whatever flaw he had.

2. This point could sort under the previous point, but I want to carve it out because I think its especially important.

I don't want to say that the Swedish program or Finnish program is better than the Canadian program. I don't. They are very diffrent and have very diffrent conditions. You need to be aware however that Canadian hockey has a -- enourmous amount of raw materia -- compared to what we have in Sweden or Finland. There's 8 million people in Sweden, and hockey isn't even that big here. I work in Stockholm, the capital and largest city here in Sweden, and hockey isn't bigger here than in the US basically. South of Stockholm, you have like 2/3s of the population in Sweden, and the climate is not supportive of the game and besides a few city's the interest is low.

So a) we have a extremely small program but b) its much much much easier to manage a small program than a larger program. There is also c) a great understanding in Sweden or Finland that -- since we are a small program -- we can never compete unless we cooperate and really stay state of the art all the time.

Tommy Boustedt is head of development for Hockey Sweden. If he gets in contact with a expert on how to work on abdominals (say a doctor at a research institute), and the said expert tells him that they have made a research on Tennis players (to help them with their serve) and found very positive results with a new approch to work the abdominals -- Boustedt can basically lift up the phone, and within like month's have say "50-75%" (a big nummer atleast) of all 13-15 y/o's playing hockey in Sweden apply that approch, and definitely always like 95% of the the elite 10-20 percent.

Often when I see a NA kid in say a YT clip showing off in the weight room, I think like yikes thats what we did 5 years ago. Not because we are better or smarter, but because its just so much easier to manage a small entity than a large entity. Ask any CEO for a big company if he can do the same thing in a company with 3,000 employees or 30,000 employees as he could in his first job as a CEO for a company with 50 employees -- and he will tell you that they biggest challenge by far to be CEO for a big company is that its so darn extremely hard to implement changes.

The result is that we in Sweden are:
a) doing some really good things with our kids, but
b) do not prepare them quite for the NA game.

The thing is, I much rather have a kid do a) when he is 16-21 and then correct b) when he is 20-22 then get to business with b) isntantly. Sure, there are probably examples of Europeans who should have gone to NA when they were 13 y/o (Zherdev???), but few Swedes.

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02-26-2013, 04:29 AM
  #42
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The percentages for Finnish players are terrible indeed, but what must be remembered is that not all players that go over and play in the CHL are highly touted or even drafted to the NHL. There are players like Mika Partanen who were never drafted nor were they especially promising in Europe. That's why players like him make the statistics just a little more unreliable.
The CHL is in fact often an option for players who weren't going to be drafted anyway, so they might as well go over and just MIGHT get a chance in the big league. Jonatan Tanus is a current example of this.

Now, players like Olli Määttä will show us whether the CHL route is good or viable for a European player.

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02-26-2013, 12:22 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Henkine View Post
But if you have a 100 drafted Finnish players playing in the CHL and nobody will be a NHL player and nobody will "bloom late". How come there is so much better late bloom rate within the Finnish NHL draftees who stay in Finland.

I understand very few draft picks will have an NHL career. But less than a percent? Not one NHL player out of a pool that has two first rounders in it? And again why that percent is that much higher within draftees that stayed in Finland.
Might have something to do with Finns developing physically slower than players/people fro mother countries.

One should also look at at kids who played in CHL for how many games they played in SM-Liiga. Like I said, a lot of them didn't have NHL level talent to begin with.

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02-26-2013, 12:28 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Coil View Post
The percentages for Finnish players are terrible indeed, but what must be remembered is that not all players that go over and play in the CHL are highly touted or even drafted to the NHL. There are players like Mika Partanen who were never drafted nor were they especially promising in Europe. That's why players like him make the statistics just a little more unreliable.
The CHL is in fact often an option for players who weren't going to be drafted anyway, so they might as well go over and just MIGHT get a chance in the big league. Jonatan Tanus is a current example of this.

Now, players like Olli Määttä will show us whether the CHL route is good or viable for a European player.
If a Finn has an option to play with London Knights, they should take the chance even if they might get ice time in SM-Liiga. You can hardly argue against with that team's track record.


Last edited by Jussi: 02-26-2013 at 09:49 PM.
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02-26-2013, 12:36 PM
  #45
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Don't forget there are absolute dregs who dominate the CHL like Corey Locke who aren't even good enough for the SM-Liiga at age 28

Corey Locke stats in his draft year 66gp 63g 88a 151pt (2,29ppg)

Compare that to Drouin's 39gp 34g 48a 82pt (2,10ppg)

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