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Old
02-24-2013, 08:58 PM
  #751
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Originally Posted by GermanJetsFan View Post
Buffalo last? That's a gutsy prediction
That SABRES team just seems really bad to me. I think they have some inner turmoil going on in that dressing room. It just wouldn't surprise me to see them and Columbus going back and forth between 30th place.

And if there's any truth to the speculation that Columbus really wants Barkov, they probably don't mind getting the 2nd pick yet again.

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02-24-2013, 10:08 PM
  #752
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Currently we're playing around 500...last year that would have given us 8th pick.

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02-24-2013, 11:02 PM
  #753
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Originally Posted by mondo3 View Post
Currently we're playing around 500...last year that would have given us 8th pick.
I think we'll finish a couple of games under .500, at the end, and could be worse if there are more injuries to key guys. This team just seems to be an up and down team. Once they play well, you get excited that the playoffs are near. Then they play a stretch where you think they may finish 30th in the league. I'm of the belief this recent upwards swing, will be followed by a downwards swing, where they lose 3 of 4, that sort of thing.

I think the Jets will finish 26th to 24th in the league and pick in the 6th to 8th spot, assuming the Capitals continue to play better and the Flames improve when they get Kipper back. At that spot, I think Monahan or Lindholm might be the pick.

1. NY Isles - Jones
2. Blue Jackets - Barkov
3. Sabres - MacKinnon
4. Panthers - Drouin
5. Avs - Nichushkin (or Lindholm or Monahan)
6. Jets - Monahan or Lindholm - whoever isn't picked, and likely Monahan if both are available.

Either one of those two would be fine. Though, a top 4 pick would be really special.

If they do get their act together and finish in a playoff spot, then taking a dman or physical forward in the 20+ range works for me too.

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02-25-2013, 12:06 AM
  #754
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Come to think of it, either of Lindholm or Monahan could develop into a better player than ROR, it just may take some time.

I really like Lindholm's game, he's playing very well in the SEL. But, Monahan is a big, character player that's putting up pretty decent points on a terrible 67's team. Could argue, both are more developed as players at 18 than ROR was.

Decisions, decisions.

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02-25-2013, 06:22 AM
  #755
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Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
I think we'll finish a couple of games under .500, at the end, and could be worse if there are more injuries to key guys. This team just seems to be an up and down team. Once they play well, you get excited that the playoffs are near. Then they play a stretch where you think they may finish 30th in the league. I'm of the belief this recent upwards swing, will be followed by a downwards swing, where they lose 3 of 4, that sort of thing.

I think the Jets will finish 26th to 24th in the league and pick in the 6th to 8th spot, assuming the Capitals continue to play better and the Flames improve when they get Kipper back. At that spot, I think Monahan or Lindholm might be the pick.

1. NY Isles - Jones
2. Blue Jackets - Barkov
3. Sabres - MacKinnon
4. Panthers - Drouin
5. Avs - Nichushkin (or Lindholm or Monahan)
6. Jets - Monahan or Lindholm - whoever isn't picked, and likely Monahan if both are available.

Either one of those two would be fine. Though, a top 4 pick would be really special.

If they do get their act together and finish in a playoff spot, then taking a dman or physical forward in the 20+ range works for me too.
I've given up trying to figure out where this team will end up. For awhile I thought for sure we would get a top 5 pick. Now it looks like this team could reach the playoffs, especially if Chevy goes into a bit of a buying mode. If we end up in that 7-10 range we have the last 3 years, hopefully something special drops to us. And of course there is always the lottery...someone has to win it.

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02-25-2013, 07:18 AM
  #756
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Originally Posted by KingBogo View Post
I've given up trying to figure out where this team will end up. For awhile I thought for sure we would get a top 5 pick. Now it looks like this team could reach the playoffs, especially if Chevy goes into a bit of a buying mode. If we end up in that 7-10 range we have the last 3 years, hopefully something special drops to us. And of course there is always the lottery...someone has to win it.
See, that's the reason why we're a bubble team right now and will most likely end up with a pick between 7-10.

We can't make the step to be a playoff team which demands consistent wins but we're not bad enough to be a bottom 5 team which demands consistent losses.

That was the Thrashers biggest problem and now is the Jets biggest problem.

How do you overcome this?

By having a good GM, drafting well and being in a successfully environment. And I have no doubt that the Jets do have all this and will have overcome this "bubble-team"-status in at least 3 years

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02-25-2013, 07:41 AM
  #757
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GermanJetsFan View Post
See, that's the reason why we're a bubble team right now and will most likely end up with a pick between 7-10.

We can't make the step to be a playoff team which demands consistent wins but we're not bad enough to be a bottom 5 team which demands consistent losses.

That was the Thrashers biggest problem and now is the Jets biggest problem.

How do you overcome this?

By having a good GM, drafting well and being in a successfully environment. And I have no doubt that the Jets do have all this and will have overcome this "bubble-team"-status in at least 3 years
We'll see. There are very very few teams that manage to stay in this bubble area for more than a year or two then become real contenders. Can't think of a single one actually. And the jets/thrashers have been there for 3 years. This would be year 4 if we end up back there. Not the way to build a successful team IMO.

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02-25-2013, 07:53 AM
  #758
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Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
I think we'll finish a couple of games under .500, at the end, and could be worse if there are more injuries to key guys. This team just seems to be an up and down team. Once they play well, you get excited that the playoffs are near. Then they play a stretch where you think they may finish 30th in the league. I'm of the belief this recent upwards swing, will be followed by a downwards swing, where they lose 3 of 4, that sort of thing.

I think the Jets will finish 26th to 24th in the league and pick in the 6th to 8th spot, assuming the Capitals continue to play better and the Flames improve when they get Kipper back. At that spot, I think Monahan or Lindholm might be the pick.

1. NY Isles - Jones
2. Blue Jackets - Barkov
3. Sabres - MacKinnon
4. Panthers - Drouin
5. Avs - Nichushkin (or Lindholm or Monahan)
6. Jets - Monahan or Lindholm - whoever isn't picked, and likely Monahan if both are available.

Either one of those two would be fine. Though, a top 4 pick would be really special.

If they do get their act together and finish in a playoff spot, then taking a dman or physical forward in the 20+ range works for me too.

What if we trade Olli, Hainsey, Antro and Wellwood for picks, when ever before the deadline Chevy just trades them, I'd say screw the playoffs, get a top 4 pick then you be set for a long time. Hey I can dream.

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Old
02-25-2013, 07:55 AM
  #759
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Originally Posted by GermanJetsFan View Post
See, that's the reason why we're a bubble team right now and will most likely end up with a pick between 7-10.

We can't make the step to be a playoff team which demands consistent wins but we're not bad enough to be a bottom 5 team which demands consistent losses.

That was the Thrashers biggest problem and now is the Jets biggest problem.

How do you overcome this?

By having a good GM, drafting well and being in a successfully environment. And I have no doubt that the Jets do have all this and will have overcome this "bubble-team"-status in at least 3 years

This scares the hell out of me.

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02-25-2013, 07:55 AM
  #760
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
We'll see. There are very very few teams that manage to stay in this bubble area for more than a year or two then become real contenders. Can't think of a single one actually. And the jets/thrashers have been there for 3 years. This would be year 4 if we end up back there. Not the way to build a successful team IMO.

Agreed.

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Old
02-25-2013, 10:05 AM
  #761
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Here is a bit of a summary on players who have stayed and how the core was formed over the last number of years.

Quote:
2007-2008: Enstrom (rookie), Little (rookie, played 48 games), Slater, Thorburn.

*Note: Little and Enstrom were Rookies. Ron Hainsey was acquired via UFA in the 2008 offseason.

Coaching/GM: Bob Hartley was fired just 6 games into the 2007-2008 season. Don Waddell took over as Head Coach. Don Waddell was GM.
Quote:
2008-2009: Little (first full NHL season), Hainsey, Enstrom, Bogosian (rookie), Slater, Thorburn.

*Note: Both Little and Bogosian were playing their first NHL seasons full-time in 2008-2009. Antropov was added in the 2009 offseason.

Coaching/GM:This was John Anderson's first season as Head Coach. Don Waddell was GM.

Quote:
2009-2010: Antropov, Enstrom, Little, Kane (rookie), Hainsey, Bogosian, Slater, Thorburn, Pavelec (rookie).

*Note: 2009-2010 was Kane and Pavelec's rookie seasons. During the 2010 Offseason, Ladd and Byfuglien were acquired, Burmistrov was added via the draft.

Coaching/GM: John Anderson was fired after the 2009-2010 season and Craig Ramsay was named Head Coach. Don Waddell was also replaced by Rick Dudley as the General Manager.
Quote:
2010-2011: "The final season in Atlanta": Ladd, Byfuglien, Wheeler, Enstrom, Little, Kane, Antropov, Burmistrov, Thorburn, Hainsey, Bogosian, Slater, Stuart, Pavelec.

*Note: This season was Ladd and Byfugliens first (and only) season in Atlanta. It was also just Kane's 2nd NHL season, so, Scheifele's age right now. During this 2010-2011 Season, in February, Wheeler & Stuart were acquired. They only played 23 games in Atlanta.

Coaching/GM: This was Craig Ramsay's one and only season as Head Coach. It was also Rick Dudley's one and only season as GM.
Quote:
2011-2012: First season in Winnipeg.
As we can see, bits and parts of this group have indeed been together for some time now, but in that time not all parts were ready to contribute all at one time, all together. The amount of turnover from Coaches to General Managers within this group is drastic.

I think realistically speaking, in my own opinion of course, looking back here and looking at this group with the benefit of hindsight and in the grand scheme of things, this is the first season I can bring myself to expect this core group to really come together and produce some results.

*If you date back to the 2007-2008 season to when we arrived in Winnipeg for the 2011-2012 season, this "group" at some point or another, had played for Bob Hartley, Don Waddell, John Anderson, Craig Ramsay and then Claude Noel. 5 coaches, 5 different different systems, philosophies, etc.. all in a few seasons. Do we see how well that is working out for Washington right now? They were also directed in 3 different directions under GM's Don Waddell, Rick Dudley and then Kevin Cheveldayoff.

*It takes a good handful of years for a young defenseman to really make his mark, gain consistency, be a difference maker, etc - We're seeing that from Bogosian. Last season as we headed into Winnipeg, we hadn't a clue what we had in Bogosian.

*Enstrom and Byfuglien, who before coming to Winnipeg had ONE season paired together under a entirely different coaching staff and system.

*Unless you're Crosby or truly elite, it generally takes a couple or a few seasons of experience, development and maturity for a rookie/young forward to really engrave himself as a difference maker, we're seeing it from Kane and to an extent Burmistrov, more so defensively but he is coming along in areas that help the team. As the team arrived in Winnipeg, Kane hadn't found his goal scoring at the level he is finding consistently now, and Burmistrov was entering his 2nd NHL season and truthfully was nowhere ready to contribute consistently to an NHL team.

*Coming to Winnipeg, Ladd, Little and Wheeler had no more than 23 games of playing time together.

*Pavelec was and is still maturing but heading into last season, our first in Winnipeg, Pavelec was just 23 turning 24 in August. That is still very young for a no. 1 goaltender.

*Guys who have been here a while Slater and Thorburn may be nice depth pieces, but not the difference makers that will take you to the next step. Sure a guy like Slater will and can be part of it, but before that you need the most relied upon players to pull the weight of the team.


In my opinion, all things considered, this year is the first season in which I think expectations can realistically be placed on this teams shoulders to actually do something when you take everything from age, inexperience, experience, relocation, new coaching staff, systems, shaking bad habits, gaining chemistry, a change in General Manager's, etc.. all into place. Some teams can come together after an offseason of moves and just click, while others it takes time for the maturity process to transpire and for players to really make their mark consistently.

Breaking it all down, this is the first season I think I can look up and down this roster and say "they should contend for a playoff spot at the bottom of the pack". Because truthfully, not until now in my opinion is it realistic to expect this "core", all things considered, to really come together and make a difference at the NHL level.

To have expected anything prior to this season in my own opinion of course, while now breaking things down and looking back, may have been unrealistic. In a perfect world perhaps they would have come together sooner, but in breaking things down here, I think I can see why they haven't put it together leading up to this season and where we are now.

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Old
02-25-2013, 12:37 PM
  #762
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That's all well and good guerzy but the fact remains that teams that spend this many years in the drafting 7-12 range just quite frankly almost never become real teams. Once my comp is fixed I can some data for that. The whole point is this thing was completely screwed up by many of the factors you listed, and quite frankly might be impossible to fix at this point of the rebuild.

One thing I disagree with is the coaching thing. Obviously the jets/thrashers have been through too many, but not nearly so many more than expected. As I've shown in the past all sc winning teams since 07 had made coaching changes in the previous 3 seasons before cup win. Again I need to wait for comp but I'd bet most have gone through 3 coaches at least in their respective 5-7 year rebuilds. All players know all systems at nhl level and changes to coaching habits can often be beneficial. Sure some coaches preach more on different aspects, but often having a variety of coaches then helps to develop all skills, it does not take so much time to adjust as some suggest.

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02-25-2013, 12:46 PM
  #763
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I agree with you Holden, we're still on the same page with this stuff in regards to our teams window, etc, I believe.

Only thing i'd say is with those Stanley Cup winning teams and their new coaches, is those teams were known contenders, no? or at least had a much better, quality roster than us, I would guess. This team has been a build, add and patch team over those years. But, with that being said, I still believe this team this year should show something, and seriously contend for a playoff spot.

But I gotta say, if you're on your 5th coach and 3rd GM in a 4 year span (beginning of the 2007-2008 season to 2011 when we got the team)... that's just not normal. At all. Now, not all of these players were here for all of that turnover, and I still agree with you that teams, players, and even a group like ours should be easily picking up on whatever the coaches want them to do by this point (since coming to Winnipeg), no excuses there.


Last edited by Guerzy: 02-25-2013 at 02:22 PM.
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02-25-2013, 12:46 PM
  #764
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We already had our lottery picks in '08 and '09 and its looking like they're both becoming special players. We have good depth on the wings, good top 3 d core. Our problem is goaltending and lack of a #1 center. Its looking like Trouba could have been a steal at #9 so hopefully he or Scheifele or Burmistrov become better than what they were projected to be when drafted. Stay the course and let our draft picks and hopefully Pavelec develop and we could be a playoff team. We're quite a young team

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02-25-2013, 12:53 PM
  #765
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We should draft Zach Fucale and Zach Nastasiuk. And Zach Pittman from the US hockey league.

Including Bogo, once Zach Redmond gets healthy and Zach Yuen comes up, we could have an all-Zach-attack on the ice...

Parents, stop naming your kids Zach and Ryan. It's overdone. By the year 2500 the entire world will be named Zach, Ryan, Emily and Zoe.

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02-25-2013, 12:54 PM
  #766
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
That's all well and good guerzy but the fact remains that teams that spend this many years in the drafting 7-12 range just quite frankly almost never become real teams. Once my comp is fixed I can some data for that. The whole point is this thing was completely screwed up by many of the factors you listed, and quite frankly might be impossible to fix at this point of the rebuild.

One thing I disagree with is the coaching thing. Obviously the jets/thrashers have been through too many, but not nearly so many more than expected. As I've shown in the past all sc winning teams since 07 had made coaching changes in the previous 3 seasons before cup win. Again I need to wait for comp but I'd bet most have gone through 3 coaches at least in their respective 5-7 year rebuilds. All players know all systems at nhl level and changes to coaching habits can often be beneficial. Sure some coaches preach more on different aspects, but often having a variety of coaches then helps to develop all skills, it does not take so much time to adjust as some suggest.
interesting the two comps I would like to see is Boston and LA. Seems like neither one of these teams built their foundation with early draft picks although getting a franchise defenseman like Chara in free agency is almost like getting a 1st overall draft choice.

Chicago and Pittsburgh both had elite young talent driven by high draft choices over a few seasons. Detroit was just really good for a long time based on a very talented core.

I am not doubting you Holden but did LA actually bottom out at any point (not a rhetorical question I didn't watch hockey for a few years) because other than Doughty they seemed to build a nice base with “no man’s land” picks no

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02-25-2013, 01:03 PM
  #767
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They got Schenn at 5th and he was key in the Richards trade. Also got Hickey (lol) at 4th oa.

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02-25-2013, 01:04 PM
  #768
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interesting the two comps I would like to see is Boston and LA. Seems like neither one of these teams built their foundation with early draft picks although getting a franchise defenseman like Chara in free agency is almost like getting a 1st overall draft choice.

Chicago and Pittsburgh both had elite young talent driven by high draft choices over a few seasons. Detroit was just really good for a long time based on a very talented core.

I am not doubting you Holden but did LA actually bottom out at any point (not a rhetorical question I didn't watch hockey for a few years) because other than Doughty they seemed to build a nice base with “no man’s land” picks no
LA got tremendous value from Brown and Kopitar. Missed with Hickey, but scored big with doughty and used Schenn to acquire Richards, as everyone knows.

You have to get extremely lucky in the 9-14 picks. LA did, but also added some great pieces in FA. Oh, and having Quick be unbeatable in the playoffs didn't hurt either. .

Those examples are few and very far between. And you have to be extremely lucky, imo.

Jets may have picked well with Scheifele and Trouba, we'll see in a few years. Another high pick, that turns out to be a gem, wouldn't hurt. .

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02-25-2013, 01:17 PM
  #769
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interesting the two comps I would like to see is Boston and LA. Seems like neither one of these teams built their foundation with early draft picks although getting a franchise defenseman like Chara in free agency is almost like getting a 1st overall draft choice.

Chicago and Pittsburgh both had elite young talent driven by high draft choices over a few seasons. Detroit was just really good for a long time based on a very talented core.

I am not doubting you Holden but did LA actually bottom out at any point (not a rhetorical question I didn't watch hockey for a few years) because other than Doughty they seemed to build a nice base with “no man’s land” picks no
LA has had 3 Top5 picks since 2007 - although one of them didn't turn out (Thomas Hickey)
Guys they drafted since diving for picks that have played games in the NHL:
Oscar Moller
Wayne Simmonds
Alec Martinez
Dwight King
Drew Doughty
Vyacheslav Voynov
Andrei Loktionov
Brayden Schenn
Kyle Clifford
Jordan Nolan


An article on rebuilding that speaks volumes to me:
http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/11/8/how-...ebuilding-work

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02-25-2013, 01:31 PM
  #770
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
LA has had 3 Top5 picks since 2007 - although one of them didn't turn out (Thomas Hickey)
Guys they drafted since diving for picks that have played games in the NHL:
Oscar Moller
Wayne Simmonds
Alec Martinez
Dwight King
Drew Doughty
Vyacheslav Voynov
Andrei Loktionov
Brayden Schenn
Kyle Clifford
Jordan Nolan


An article on rebuilding that speaks volumes to me:
http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/11/8/how-...ebuilding-work
thanks garret that is a good read!

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02-25-2013, 02:12 PM
  #771
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
That's all well and good guerzy but the fact remains that teams that spend this many years in the drafting 7-12 range just quite frankly almost never become real teams. Once my comp is fixed I can some data for that. The whole point is this thing was completely screwed up by many of the factors you listed, and quite frankly might be impossible to fix at this point of the rebuild.
I look forward to that data, because I am not sure how many teams that has actually happened too. Calgary has a terrible draft history, but after that I don't know. The "you have to suck really really bad to get good" thing is a load of nonsense IMO.

Of course, teams do have to draft well to improve, but there are plenty of teams who have tanked multiple top 5 picks and I am not down with the Edmonton model of team building either.

There is no doubt in my mind that tanking worked for Pit and Chi (although I don't know that it was by design), but there are plenty other examples of good teams that weren't built that way and there is no reason to believe that picking within the top 5 (instead of 7-10) 4 years earlier matters in the slightest come playoff time. When you get to the playoffs, all that really matters is depth, luck and goaltending.

Long term, the Jets need to drafts (or acquire) two big time centres and three top notch lines along with their young defenders. That is all that matters. It isn't like they are absent of a few top end picks in Kane and Bogosian. The King's build their team primarily on the backs of Kopitar (11th) and Richards (24th) and beat out a team that hasn't picked in the top 9 since Scott Niedermayer (Pressbox Adam Larsson aside).

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02-25-2013, 02:26 PM
  #772
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Read the article, having trouble figurin out the thesis.

Basically it's saying if you aren't making the playoffs consistently after maximum five years, it's time to rebuild again? Or is it saying that tanking doesn't work out as often as you'd believe despite CHI/PIT/LA all winning Cups??

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02-25-2013, 07:35 PM
  #773
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Looking at the 2 years of Jets drafts, do we have European scouts?

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02-25-2013, 08:17 PM
  #774
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With each passing day, I'm becoming a bigger and bigger Nikita Zadorov fan. If we don't get a crack at any of the perceived elite forwards, I would love to have this bull on our blueline.

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02-25-2013, 09:23 PM
  #775
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Looking at the 2 years of Jets drafts, do we have European scouts?
As several of us have mentioned on here , there may have been reasons we didn't have any European selections the first two years.

Craig Heisinger recently went over to Europe , for the fourth time this season to scout , so lets see what happens this draft.

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