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HNIC shows new potential alignment with 16 teams in "east" groupings

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Old
02-26-2013, 08:44 AM
  #601
patnyrnyg
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Originally Posted by IceAce View Post
Here's a thought, and this may have been mentioned before so excuse me if it has, but why not take the proposed realignment and just swap the two Florida teams with Carolina and Columbus?

The 2 Florida markets would be happy because they now have 3 NY area teams, and Philly who make up a good deal of their transplants, so they should see increased revenue for all home division games. Not to mention they don't have to "fly over another division" to play their road divisional games.

Carolina goes back to their ancestral home, so to speak, in what's basically the old Adams Division, and while Columbus doesn't get Pitt, they do get geographically close rivals in Buffalo and they keep Detroit in their division and then add the 3 Canadian clubs.
I think the two pairs are interchangeable for the most part. Also think Florida and Tampa get enough Leafs, Habs, Bruins, and Wings fans in their building to make it a wash when you consider the Rangers, Flyers, Pens fans that show up. Think it just comes down to them trying to get a Pittsburgh Columbus rivalry going. I don't know firsthand as I do not recall ever watching a Pitt-CBJ game in Columbus, but I read that Pens fans have a huge showing at the games in Columbus. With that in mind, having them in the same division, competing for the same play-off spots, playing 6 times a year and possibly in the play-offs could turn into something. Of course, Columbus actually has to be competitive for that to happen.

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02-26-2013, 08:47 AM
  #602
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Originally Posted by garry1221 View Post
How do you choose 'the best' 16 teams without playing each and every team in the league exactly the same number of times?
Garry, there is way to do it. It's a mathematical model used exactly for situations like this. But, it is hard to explain, and it would be hard to follow for standings. It's useful for going back later and looking to see who was strongest, though.

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02-26-2013, 08:48 AM
  #603
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Originally Posted by MNNumbers View Post
I would like to go back to Enigma Publius' idea here, and play with the numbers some more, because the whole thing is starting to make a little more sense to me.

I believe the idea was a wild card in the 8-team conferences only.

So, PAC and CENT - 4/7 = 57% qualify.

In the EAST, let's call them EAST and ATL. Top 3 in each conference auto-qualify. The wild cards are the next 2 best of the 4th and 5th place finishers. Your playoff bracket would have 1 crossover. It doesn't matter which series it is for this description.

So, in the EAST/ATL we have 8/16 qualifying, but that is tempered out a bit, because high 5 can get in there, so it's maybe like 9/16 = 56%. So, we are close to equal.

Now, however, there are one thing that makes sense about this:

It answers the question: Why are both 8-team conferences in the ETZ? Because this crossover is a terrible idea if it includes anyone from the CTZ, MTZ, or PTZ.

I say this because this realignment is not about PHX, although we want to guess it is. The NHL wouldn't be telling the PA anything about that.

So, this answers a bigger question, too. And, it seems more like something put together with some thought.
Because there are 16 teams in the eastern time zone and 16 divided by 2 equals 8.

Seriously doubt they are considering whether Phoenix moves or if they expand. They will cross that bridge when they come to it.

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02-26-2013, 08:56 AM
  #604
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Originally Posted by patnyrnyg View Post
Because there are 16 teams in the eastern time zone and 16 divided by 2 equals 8.

Seriously doubt they are considering whether Phoenix moves or if they expand. They will cross that bridge when they come to it.
I agree totally. This has nothing to do with PHX. It's all about the coincidence that right now 16 teams are ETZ. They can maximize regional TV revenue with favorable start time, and also put the wild card in place to appease the PA.

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02-26-2013, 09:01 AM
  #605
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http://www.freep.com/article/2013022...rdles-to-clear

From the article:

Don't get too excited -- yet -- about the possibility of the Detroit Red Wings moving to the NHL's Eastern Conference as part of a proposed realignment for next season.

CBC's Elliotte Friedman reported Saturday night that the Wings and Columbus Blue Jackets could be moving east. He said the Wings would be in a division with Boston, Buffalo, Florida, Montreal, Ottawa, Tampa Bay and Toronto.

Red Wings general manager Ken Holland said Saturday he had not heard anything from the NHL about Detroit moving east and declined to discuss the matter again before Sunday's 8-3 win over Vancouver.

Also:

Those talks must begin soon, because if there is going to be realignment next season, work will have to begin in the next month or two to come up with a schedule.

The status of the Coyotes is another concern: Will they remain in Phoenix or move to Seattle or Quebec City? Now they're supposed to remain in the West in the realignment, but a move to Quebec could affect that.

The players also have had concerns about unbalanced conferences, which the NHL might have to address. The plan reported by Friedman would have 16 teams vying for eight playoff spots in one conference -- the East -- but just 14 teams vying for eight playoff spots in the West.

A spokesman for the NHLPA declined comment Monday.


How, when, where this will end up?

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02-26-2013, 09:04 AM
  #606
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Originally Posted by MNNumbers View Post
Great explanation and a good idea, too.

But, what if you had:

Adams: 1) Montreal 2) Ottawa 3) Boston 4*) Toronto 5*) Detroit
Patrick: 1) Pittsburgh 2) New Jersey 3) Tampa Bay 4*) Florida
Norris: 1) Chicago 2) Nashville 3) St. Louis 4*) Dallas
Smythe: 1) Anaheim 2) Vancouver 3) San Jose ??

I am not looking at standings right now, but let's assume it's (for the Adams and Smythe)

1Montreal 2Anaheim
3Ottawa 4Boston
5Vancouver 6San Jose
7Toronto 8Detroit

I am assuming you are suggesting that the Anaheim/San Jose pairing hold.
So, it's:Montreal v Detroit; Anaheim V San Jose; Ottawa v Toronto; Boston v Vancouver???

Now let's say Boston wins, and Montreal, Toronto and San Jose:
Then: 1Montreal, 2Boston, 3San Jose, 4Toronto.
So, it's Montreal v Toronto, Boston v San Jose?

Let's say Montreal and Boston win. Now, what happened in the other 2 conferences? Presumably, we have something like Chicago and Rangers. But, it could be Chicago and Nashville. Do you Re-seed? Then, you could get Boston v Chicago and Montreal v Nashville. And, finally, Boston v Nashville. Keep in mind the Bruins could be facing Colorado here also.

So, Boston needs, by chance, to win 4 series out of TZ. 2 of them with PTZ. 1 with MTZ? (Col), and 1 CTZ to win the Cup.

Now, I like this system. I really do. 4 wild cards is good to me. But, it does leave this kind of a thing as a possibility. And, you can't fix it by linking the 2 ETZ conferences either, because then you have 8/14 and 8/16.
Yeah, the possibility of a cross-country series is present whenever you deviate from a strict 4 teams from each conference. But, it would be a MAXIMUM of 1 such series each of the first two rounds. In the above example, Montreal and Boston would advance with 1 Patrick team and 1 Norris team, so Boston would play no more than 3 series out of TZ.

The alternative wild-card situation where 4 plays 5 within the same conference doesn't really help the situation, because those eastern slots are still going to be more difficult to get into and that 4v5 matchup may be grossly unfair. MAYBE it would help if it was the worst #4 and the best #5 from either Eastern conferences, because that would still prevent cross-country series until the SC Semis.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Icedog2735 View Post
The way I interpreted the latest info was that out of the 18 non-automatic qualifying teams, the 4 with the most points would make the playoffs. From there, I would assume that the league would put each team in their own conference's 4-team playoffs where possible. You would end up with an odd match-up every once and a while but I don't think it would be as drastic or as complex as some here are making it seem.
My rudimentary math says (assuming a wild card has an equal chance to be from any conference and no more than 5 per conference) there is a 5/18 chance that it occurs in a given year, and thus a 5/144 or about 1/29 chance that a given first round series will have a Smythe team playing against one of the ETZ teams. The chance a given team, like Boston, is involved in such a series in a given year is 1/58; for Vancouver or another Pacific team it is a 1/25 chance each year.

Another simple solution, though one that is not completely fair, is to lock the Pacific/Smythe division at 4 playoff teams. That way any cross-conference series those first few rounds is not going to be so far away timezone-wise. [I still think Detroit and/or Columbus are better fits for the Central than Colorado is.]


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Old
02-26-2013, 09:15 AM
  #607
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Originally Posted by IceAce View Post
Here's a thought, and this may have been mentioned before so excuse me if it has, but why not take the proposed realignment and just swap the two Florida teams with Carolina and Columbus?

The 2 Florida markets would be happy because they now have 3 NY area teams, and Philly who make up a good deal of their transplants, so they should see increased revenue for all home division games. Not to mention they don't have to "fly over another division" to play their road divisional games. Florida teams are typically in Divisions with teams in the NE corridor in all other major sports.

Carolina goes back to their ancestral home, so to speak, in what's basically the old Adams Division, and while Columbus doesn't get Pitt, they do get geographically close rivals in Buffalo and they keep Detroit in their division and then add the 3 Canadian clubs.
It's not a bad idea at all. In fact, here's what I posted about it earlier:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Enigma Publius View Post
This is true. You could swap CAR and CLB for TB & FLA and you'd have a similar setup. I definitely think it could work - in fact, I might even prefer it. But Columbus would lose out on potential rival PIT and the New York media market. Though, if QC ever gets a team, Columbus will likely be losing out anyway.

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02-26-2013, 09:35 AM
  #608
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Originally Posted by Enigma Publius View Post
It's not a bad idea at all. In fact, here's what I posted about it earlier:
Detroit would be more likely to lose out if QC gets a team than Columbus. Although if QC was really on the verge of getting a team, I can't imagine why the NHL would go with this alignment knowing Detroit could have to move back with the CTZ teams over the summer.

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02-26-2013, 09:47 AM
  #609
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The more I read, the more I think again Gary is a genius.

Everybody is talking about this realignment process, nobody's talking about the Coyotes situation. Gary's plan is always working right. Zero attention on the real problems. Nobody learns from the past.

You have to give'em credit.

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02-26-2013, 09:53 AM
  #610
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I'm trying to figure when it happened, but I've looked back through the Seasons and can't find a single example of it. Show me that you're not just making up things.
it could happen though. Its possible under the current structure

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02-26-2013, 10:09 AM
  #611
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Originally Posted by QcBlizzard View Post
The more I read, the more I think again Gary is a genius.

Everybody is talking about this realignment process, nobody's talking about the Coyotes situation. Gary's plan is always working right. Zero attention on the real problems. Nobody learns from the past.

You have to give'em credit.
Because time and time again, realignment has nothing to do with relocation. Just ask the Southeast Division's Winnipeg Jets.

The NHL can only address the issue once a team has been awarded in Quebec.

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02-26-2013, 10:10 AM
  #612
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Originally Posted by Ober View Post
"No play in"...16 teams make the playoffs...is what was said is in the current proposal this evening on TSN Insiders.

Top 3 teams in each Conference...with 4 more teams being slotted into the 4th position in each Conference via a "wildcard" scenario. No details were given/known.

Time will tell! Maybe it get massaged again and changes to something different.
Didn't see the segment, but its tough to speculate based on speculation from others. Until we see the final plan we won't know. I just know they want to add an extra "round" at some point. Its another revenue grab, just like expansion would be. If you asked an nhl exec they would say no expansion is planned, even though we are all pretty sure it is.

If they keep at 16 for now, I would find it very odd if a team like LA could wind up playing through the atlantic conference playoffs. It would be a nightmare on travel. I could see a crossover with the atlantic and norris divisions because travel would be way. Guess we will see
Edit should have said atlantic and adams not norris


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02-26-2013, 10:17 AM
  #613
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Originally Posted by Grudy0 View Post
Because time and time again, realignment has nothing to do with relocation. Just ask the Southeast Division's Winnipeg Jets.

The NHL can only address the issue once a team has been awarded in Quebec.
I agree.

But let's face it: this leak is intentional. At this very moment, I could not believe Daly & Co dont know where the Coyotes will play next season.

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02-26-2013, 10:22 AM
  #614
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Originally Posted by QcBlizzard View Post
I agree.

But let's face it: this leak is intentional. At this very moment, I could not believe Daly & Co dont know where the Coyotes will play next season.
Or they think it would at least be somewhere out west.

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02-26-2013, 10:25 AM
  #615
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Originally Posted by Shockmaster View Post
Or they think it would at least be somewhere out west.
Sure,

North or south?

I'll never put my bet on what the league want me to bet.

They can work their sale in all silence now. This is the intent.

http://youtu.be/USC-pz-4wto


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02-26-2013, 10:41 AM
  #616
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I agree.

But let's face it: this leak is intentional. At this very moment, I could not believe Daly & Co dont know where the Coyotes will play next season.
The leak may be intentional, to a point.

We've seen a couple of leaks AFAIK. But remember, what has leaked is just as important as what hasn't.

We know that the NHLPA and the NHL have been working feverishly to get a realignment done. We know that in order for a realignment plan, complete with a change to the scheduling matrix and playoff qualification, must:

Gain approval from 20 of 30 teams in a Board of Governors vote
Gain approval from the NHLPA

Therefore, any plan hatched by the League and NHLPA must go through the Board of Governors, which have yet to address a new realignment proposal.

We don't know if there is one realignment proposal between the PA and the League. There could be two. There could be four. There could be twelve. We just know of one proposal, because that is the one that has leaked. And the only details specifically we know of is the alignment, with the assumption that the NHL-approved scheduling matrix is still on, and we don't know the playoff qualification.

And somehow, within all of that, people still believe Quebec should be in the realignment mix? With Gary Bettman as Commissioner, the NHL has yet to move the Jets to a suitable division, did not move the Hurricanes to a different division upon the move from Hartford, did not move the Coyotes to a different division upon the move from Winnipeg, and executed an immediate switch of conferences when the Avs came from Quebec.

It's move first, fix later. It always has been. It always will be.

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02-26-2013, 10:44 AM
  #617
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TSN is reporting on how the playoffs will work in the new alignment:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=416857

It sounds similar to my suggestion, except that the League apparently wants to guarantee three playoff spots per conference where I'd prefer to guarantee no more than two. Nevertheless, they could do much worse.

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02-26-2013, 10:46 AM
  #618
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Originally Posted by Grudy0 View Post
The leak may be intentional, to a point.

We've seen a couple of leaks AFAIK. But remember, what has leaked is just as important as what hasn't.

We know that the NHLPA and the NHL have been working feverishly to get a realignment done. We know that in order for a realignment plan, complete with a change to the scheduling matrix and playoff qualification, must:

Gain approval from 20 of 30 teams in a Board of Governors vote
Gain approval from the NHLPA

Therefore, any plan hatched by the League and NHLPA must go through the Board of Governors, which have yet to address a new realignment proposal.

We don't know if there is one realignment proposal between the PA and the League. There could be two. There could be four. There could be twelve. We just know of one proposal, because that is the one that has leaked. And the only details specifically we know of is the alignment, with the assumption that the NHL-approved scheduling matrix is still on, and we don't know the playoff qualification.

And somehow, within all of that, people still believe Quebec should be in the realignment mix? With Gary Bettman as Commissioner, the NHL has yet to move the Jets to a suitable division, did not move the Hurricanes to a different division upon the move from Hartford, did not move the Coyotes to a different division upon the move from Winnipeg, and executed an immediate switch of conferences when the Avs came from Quebec.

It's move first, fix later. It always has been. It always will be.
Not asking a particular status for Qc.

Just saying Gary's plan (put people's focus elsewhere then , maybe Qc city) is working awesome.

Cheers.

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02-26-2013, 10:57 AM
  #619
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The other thing to think about relocations and expansions, the league no longer thinks long-term. If Phoenix stays and then it completely blows up the following year and moves to Quebec late (like atlanta to winnipeg) the league would likely keep them in the Pacific for at least a year and then move teams again. They are not going to hold spots for future possibilities.

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02-26-2013, 10:58 AM
  #620
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It's move first, fix later. It always has been. It always will be.
Which is why if Detroit, like Toronto, sees the door open to possibly making their own situation better now, they'll try any way to do it. If Detroit wants to go east, but doesn't get into an eastern group now, they may never do it, because who knows what happens with expansion or relocation. If Detroit(and Columbus) gets in the door now, it's that much tougher to extract them if something new comes up.

It seems like the league is due for something crazy. The O6 days were stable, until the league doubled in one year in the late 60's. The 70's continued the craziness with more expansion, realignments, weird divisions, absorbing teams from another league, two teams merging and one of them folding, etc. Things got quiet in the 80's after a few early relocation's. The 90's exploded with an average of 1 expansion team every year, 4 relocation's, and 2 significant realignments. The 00's were very quiet.

The Thrashers moving in this decade has opened up a can of worms, where every issue from the 98 realignment is being reassessed. Add to that a new and improved PA, which changes the variables in every equation. Whatever they come up with could be a little nuts.

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02-26-2013, 10:58 AM
  #621
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Originally Posted by Rupertslander View Post
TSN is reporting on how the playoffs will work in the new alignment:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=416857

It sounds similar to my suggestion, except that the League apparently wants to guarantee three playoff spots per conference where I'd prefer to guarantee no more than two. Nevertheless, they could do much worse.
Three is good. The more guaranteed spots the better, because each conference is playing the same schedule whereas it is less equitable to compare point totals between teams from different conferences with vastly different schedules.

While I had also been a fan of a 5 team max from each conference, I suppose it couldn't hurt if 6 or 7 got in all from one conference (that 8th team would probably have like 1 conference win).

The important facts of a mixed playoff system where not all conferences have 4 teams is that you can no longer have post-season conference champions. You can have Stanley Cup semifinals and you can have winners of the Clarence Campbell and Prince of Wales Trophies, but the "Atlantic Conference Champion" will be a regular season award.

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02-26-2013, 11:01 AM
  #622
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Looking at the standings for five years (including this one), the most recent rumor (top three in EVERY conference qualify, the four remaining Wild Cards are distributed globally based on points) produces some disturbing results. Looking at this year's standings, the proposed Eastern division (for lack of a better moniker) would currently send six of its eight teams to the playoffs - resulting in, say, TB @ ANA. DET would likely be kicked into the Atlantic against NJD. In 2009-2010, the proposed Western Division would have sent six of its seven teams to the playoffs with the possible ANA @ WSH and CAL @ CHI opening round matchup.

Yikes! What a terrible, clumsy and unnecessarily complicated system!

However, the idea I've floated: restricting the top-three + Wild Cards to the Eastern and Atlantic divisions also has its issues. With strict adherence to #1 seeds vs. WCs; #2 vs. #3, last year would have resulted in what looks like a punishment to whoever the winner of the Eastern Division would have been (for argument's sake, I give Boston the nod over Detroit). Here's what the opening round would have looked like:

NYR˚ - 109 v. WSH - 92*
PIT - 108 v. PHI - 103

BOS˚ - 102 v. NJD - 102*
DET - 102 v. FLA - 94

˚ - Division winner
* - Wild Card

Detroit, by placing second, plays a team with eight fewer points than the division winner. You could rectify this by having the division winners simply play the teams with the two fewest point totals. But that potentially adds a layer of complexity to the system. However, it's far better than the mad, league-wide scramble for four wild cards.

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02-26-2013, 11:02 AM
  #623
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This is beginning to sound way more complicated than it needs to be, have two conferences with 4 divisions, 1-4 make the playoffs, in the east if 5B has a better record than 4A move 5B to A division playoffs and when the league expands to 32 and everyone is nice and happy, scrap the crossover. I don't understand why they are trying to reinvent the wheel here.

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02-26-2013, 11:03 AM
  #624
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Originally Posted by IceAce View Post
Here's a thought, and this may have been mentioned before so excuse me if it has, but why not take the proposed realignment and just swap the two Florida teams with Carolina and Columbus?

The 2 Florida markets would be happy because they now have 3 NY area teams, and Philly who make up a good deal of their transplants, so they should see increased revenue for all home division games. Not to mention they don't have to "fly over another division" to play their road divisional games. Florida teams are typically in Divisions with teams in the NE corridor in all other major sports.

Carolina goes back to their ancestral home, so to speak, in what's basically the old Adams Division, and while Columbus doesn't get Pitt, they do get geographically close rivals in Buffalo and they keep Detroit in their division and then add the 3 Canadian clubs.
From what I understand, it's the Florida teams that wanted to be in the division with the Canadian contingent, Detroit, Boston and Buffalo. I believe it was Friedman on the radio at the beginning of last week, before all this broke, saying the goals between the league and the NHLPA were to get Detroit and Columbus to the East and at the same time being able to compensate Florida, Tampa and Nashville in doing so.

Three days later they come out with this. That would lead me to believe the Florida teams prefer Detroit, Boston, Toronto and Montreal in their buildings for revenue purposes.

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02-26-2013, 11:05 AM
  #625
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I don't know why people keep suggesting Nashville to the SE, Winnipeg to the NW. That is essentially the same problem you had with Columbus and Detroit. Winnipeg fans do not want to be with Calgary and Vancouver, and Nashville fans don't want to be in a different time zone and be with Florida, Carolina or NY. It'll be fine the way it is.
Why are so many people here complaining about 1 Time Zone difference. Truly, that is Nothing. Chicago, St Louis, Nashville, they'd all be happy to have Detroit in their Division, 1 TZ away. Vancouver wouldn't want to give up the Alberta teams, 1 TZ away. Detroit and Toronto would likely be happy if they could add Chicago into a Division with them. Dallas would still probably cheer to be in a Division with teams only 1 TZ away. Nashville and Atlanta would probably have like to have been in a Division together.

If whatever the new alignment is only has a max of 2 TZs in any particular Division then that's a big plus over the current situation, and it's nothing to be griping about if in a crossover matchup that might happen a team might have to play against a team only 1 TZ away.

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