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Old
02-26-2013, 11:58 AM
  #501
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The combine is horribly overrated. It just tells you about a kid's athleticism, which means nothing if said kid doesn't know how to play football.

Rod Smith went undrafted. I couldn't care less how fast someone runs.

The coverage of this "event" is ridiculous. I can understand the overhype and overanalysis of the draft, but just watching a bunch of collegiate football players run in a straight line and lift weights!?

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02-26-2013, 12:45 PM
  #502
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Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
The combine is horribly overrated. It just tells you about a kid's athleticism, which means nothing if said kid doesn't know how to play football.

Rod Smith went undrafted. I couldn't care less how fast someone runs.

The coverage of this "event" is ridiculous. I can understand the overhype and overanalysis of the draft, but just watching a bunch of collegiate football players run in a straight line and lift weights!?
Exactly. Completely unnecessary to get a better gauge on how fast, quick, strong, agile, smart, explosive and skilled the players are in comparison to their peers in order to better project how they might do in the NFL. I only hope our division rivals take the same view.

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02-26-2013, 12:52 PM
  #503
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
The combine is horribly overrated. It just tells you about a kid's athleticism, which means nothing if said kid doesn't know how to play football.

Rod Smith went undrafted. I couldn't care less how fast someone runs.

The coverage of this "event" is ridiculous. I can understand the overhype and overanalysis of the draft, but just watching a bunch of collegiate football players run in a straight line and lift weights!?
I agree, but it's always fun to see how athletic these guys are.

Even worse is National Recruiting Day. Patrick Willis was a 2 star coming into college

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02-26-2013, 01:38 PM
  #504
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Originally Posted by Bonzai12 View Post
I agree, but it's always fun to see how athletic these guys are.

Even worse is National Recruiting Day. Patrick Willis was a 2 star coming into college
Ugh, don't get me started on that fiasco. That circus just screams corruption.

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02-26-2013, 01:50 PM
  #505
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Originally Posted by Bonzai12 View Post
I agree, but it's always fun to see how athletic these guys are.

Even worse is National Recruiting Day. Patrick Willis was a 2 star coming into college
Yeah, there are some misses and it's not 100% predictive. But there is strong correlation. Statistically they have shown that a higher percentage of higher ranked high school players achieve success than lower ranked high school players. And statistically the teams with higher ranked classes, especially if you put them together over multiple years, achieve more success than lower teams with lower ranked classes. But there are always outliers but pointing out individual outliers doesn't disprove its usefulness. It's not 100% accurate, but the teams who continue to put together highly ranked classes tend to stay on top.

I've typically seen that offensive lineman are the most difficult to project and where the star rankings are the least predictive. Offensive lineman take a long time to develop and often come from other positions as well, i.e. high school TE's often make great left tackles.

By the way 2 star usually are for players that weren't formally evaluated by an analyst.

For grins, here are the top 25 players for the upcoming draft and their Rivals recruiting rankings coming out of high school.

Luke Joeckel - 4 star
Bjoern Werner - 3 star
Chance Warmack - 3 star
Geno Smith - 4 star
Star Lotulelei - 3 star
Damontre Moore - 3 star
Eric Fisher - 2 star
Dee Milliner - 5 star
Jarvis Jones - 4 star
Dion Jordan - 4 star
Barkevious Mingo - 4 star
Sheldon Richardson - 5 star
Cordarrelle Patterson - 4 star
Sharrif Floyd - 5 star
Arthur Brown - 5 star
Damontre Moore - 3 star
Johnathon Hankins - 3 star
Dion Jordan - 4 star
DeAndre Hopkins - 4 star
Kenny Vaccaro - 4 star
Eric Reid - 4 star
Manti Te'o - 5 star
Jonathan Cooper - 3 star
Keenan Allen - 5 star
Xavier Rhodes - 3 star


Last edited by anleva: 02-26-2013 at 01:55 PM.
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Old
02-26-2013, 02:01 PM
  #506
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Ryan Clady - 2* DT (yes he was considered a DT coming out of HS)
Doug Martin - 2* RB
Watt - 2* DE
Dalton - 2* QB
Kapernick - 2* QB (Ault's plan was to switch him to S)

It is all just a total crapshoot. Recruiting stars actually mean very little.

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02-26-2013, 02:10 PM
  #507
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Ryan Clady - 2* DT (yes he was considered a DT coming out of HS)
Doug Martin - 2* RB
Watt - 2* DE
Dalton - 2* QB
Kapernick - 2* QB (Ault's plan was to switch him to S)

It is all just a total crapshoot. Recruiting stars actually mean very little.
Higher stars have higher correlation for future success. Yes, you can find low stars that were great and high stars that weren't. But statistically more higher ranked players are successful than lower ranked players.

Look at the list above for the top 25. Lots of 4 and 5 star players.

Also 2* players are usually players that have not been formally evaluated i.e. they haven't attended the evaluation camps where the analysts are. Usually if they have they will at least get a 3* ranking.

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02-26-2013, 02:28 PM
  #508
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Originally Posted by anleva View Post
Higher stars have higher correlation for future success. Yes, you can find low stars that were great and high stars that weren't. But statistically more higher ranked players are successful than lower ranked players.

Look at the list above for the top 25. Lots of 4 and 5 star players.

Also 2* players are usually players that have not been formally evaluated i.e. they haven't attended the evaluation camps where the analysts are. Usually if they have they will at least get a 3* ranking.
Star ratings are highly skewed towards the teams they commit to. If you watch them you will see many times when a team like Alabama picks up a 2*, the next update they will jump to a 3 or 4*. Now if that player committed to La Tech, they would stay a 2*. It happens all the time. I have even seen stars decrease when a player commits to a school. The whole stars thing is a sham. From 09-12 nearly the same amount of 2 stars and lower have been drafted in the 1st round as there have been 5*. 3 and 4* dominate drafts because they are players that do typically have more talent than the 2* and there are a huge amount of them out there (about 700-750 per year).

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02-26-2013, 02:47 PM
  #509
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Star ratings are highly skewed towards the teams they commit to. If you watch them you will see many times when a team like Alabama picks up a 2*, the next update they will jump to a 3 or 4*. Now if that player committed to La Tech, they would stay a 2*. It happens all the time. I have even seen stars decrease when a player commits to a school. The whole stars thing is a sham. From 09-12 nearly the same amount of 2 stars and lower have been drafted in the 1st round as there have been 5*. 3 and 4* dominate drafts because they are players that do typically have more talent than the 2* and there are a huge amount of them out there (about 700-750 per year).
Some research on this from the intrawebs:

2011 draft.

Quote:
The breakdown for the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

Star 1st Round Picks
5 5
4 13
3 9
2 5

Odds of becoming a 1st round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft

Star Odds of 1st Rnd
5 10-1
4 20-1
3 111-1
2 240-1
2012 Draft

Quote:
CONCLUSION: On the surface, it appears that a five-star recruit is just as likely to get drafted in the first round as the two-stars, considering that four of each were taken this year. But that isn't using math correctly. There are only 25-30 five-star recruits in any given year while there are roughly 1,600-1,800 two-stars each cycle. Therefore, if you are rated as five-star, you have roughly a 13.3% chance to get drafted in the first round (4/30). But if you are a two-star prospect, you have a 0.2% chance of being drafted in the first round (4/1,800).

A pretty massive difference.

If you are a four-star prospect, you have a 4.3% chance of being drafted in the first round (13/300), and as a three-star recruit, you have a 1.3% chance of going in the first round (10/800). It's safe to say, that the higher-ranked prospects have a dramatically better chance of landing in the first round.

These numbers are not an end-all be-all. There are simply a look at one round of one draft. But as the industry of college football recruiting rankings continue to grow, fans can expect these self-proclaimed talent evaluators to continue getting better at predicting the future.

So as a special service announcement to all the recruiting haters out there, PAY ATTENTION!

Recruiting is the lifeblood of the sport we all love so much.

And a study on how recruiting rankings predict future team success

Quote:
Your 5 Star Takeaway

Recruiting rankings have a huge correlation to future team success, especially on defense. Great teams can come from average talent, but more talent typically means more success. On defense it is virtually impossible to build an elite defense without elite recruits, and its equally true across all defensive positions. On offense dreams of 5 star skill position players are fun, but coaching, player development, system and luck play a much bigger role in future success than they do on defense. With top 20 and higher recruits at nearly every position on defense, Michigan is poised for a very strong future if they can keep the talent around.

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02-26-2013, 03:24 PM
  #510
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Originally Posted by anleva View Post

Some of those are blocked at work. Do they have numbers when it extends out to 3 or 4 rounds? I'd be interested in seeing those.

On reason that 2 stars look way worse is because almost anybody who ends up playing at a FBS level gets assigned a two star. If they used the 1 star or no star rankings you would see half as many 2 stars a year. And like I said with the 3*, many bigger programs have all 3*+ simply because they were recruited by a big school.

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02-26-2013, 04:55 PM
  #511
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Some of those are blocked at work. Do they have numbers when it extends out to 3 or 4 rounds? I'd be interested in seeing those.

On reason that 2 stars look way worse is because almost anybody who ends up playing at a FBS level gets assigned a two star. If they used the 1 star or no star rankings you would see half as many 2 stars a year. And like I said with the 3*, many bigger programs have all 3*+ simply because they were recruited by a big school.
Those particular draft studies were just for the first round. There may be some others out there that go deeper.

Your point about stars being added based on someone committing to a big school is spot on. I notice that as well. And it isn't always any big BCS school, often just the typical football elite. But sometimes just looking at the offer list should tell you what how many stars they should have as enough recruiters with strong player evaluation reputations have evaluated that player and given them an offer.

Stars and rankings are not an exact science by any means, and there are always good players who are underanked or unranked and fall through the cracks and highly ranked players who bust, but a pretty good correlation across a large sample for future player and team success.

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02-26-2013, 05:35 PM
  #512
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As overrated as the combine is, Te'o has done a crap job changing the conversation. He should have played in the Senior Bowl, he really needed a good combine and interviews and until he does something good on the national stage this will dog him.

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02-26-2013, 05:40 PM
  #513
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Originally Posted by anleva View Post
Those particular draft studies were just for the first round. There may be some others out there that go deeper.

Your point about stars being added based on someone committing to a big school is spot on. I notice that as well. And it isn't always any big BCS school, often just the typical football elite. But sometimes just looking at the offer list should tell you what how many stars they should have as enough recruiters with strong player evaluation reputations have evaluated that player and given them an offer.

Stars and rankings are not an exact science by any means, and there are always good players who are underanked or unranked and fall through the cracks and highly ranked players who bust, but a pretty good correlation across a large sample for future player and team success.
I think more players in the west tend to fall through than in the east + Texas.

@Hasbro - Te'o really has. He needs to stand out in something so people quit bringing up the imaginary GF thing. Instead he keeps having disappointment after disappointment.

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02-27-2013, 08:51 PM
  #514
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Rapids new unis


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02-27-2013, 09:07 PM
  #515
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Those are really cool jersey's. love that idea

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02-27-2013, 09:10 PM
  #516
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I love how the Rapids don't have any advertising on their jersey, that is how it should be.

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03-04-2013, 07:08 PM
  #517
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The Dolphins and Bears franchised Melton and Starks. We really need a DT in the 1st two rounds.

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03-04-2013, 07:59 PM
  #518
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Those are really cool jersey's. love that idea
All they need now is to play in a real league.

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03-05-2013, 01:46 AM
  #519
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The Dolphins and Bears franchised Melton and Starks. We really need a DT in the 1st two rounds.
ugh I thought Starks was headed to the Broncos for sure.

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03-06-2013, 12:45 AM
  #520
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03-06-2013, 06:59 AM
  #521
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I'm trying to start a fake online relationship with Star Lotulelei to get him to drop to the Broncos. So far he hasn't bit.

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03-06-2013, 07:23 AM
  #522
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I'll start a fake online relationship as Star Lotulelei, if you think it'll help.

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03-06-2013, 01:56 PM
  #523
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My FA wish list:

G Andy Levitre
S Charles Woodson
TE Delanie Walker

There's really nobody at defensive tackle that's more than a depth signing. Levitre may/may not start here but he never gets hurt. Our OL would be solid depth-wise next year with that signing. Woodson would be an enormous upgrade in the secondary and has the ball instincts we need in someone back there. Walker is both smart and athletic. I have a feeling he would be huge in the passing game with Peyton. That would leave us with DT/LB/WR/RB as places to address in the draft. Picking up a Hartline/Amendola type to play the slot would take care of WR but I just don't know how much those guys would want $$ wise. I also considered Greg Jones but I think that body might be a little too beat up. I think Walker could play H-Back some if needed.

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03-06-2013, 03:35 PM
  #524
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Interesting read. Broncos working hard to get Elvis to take a paycut of his 12M salary.

http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/bron...vil-or-his-pay

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03-06-2013, 04:05 PM
  #525
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Interesting read. Broncos working hard to get Elvis to take a paycut of his 12M salary.

http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/bron...vil-or-his-pay
If that happens, we could grab Freeney and Welker and make this team incredible in a hurry. Freeney might even work out something cheap for a shot at a title with Peyton...who knows.

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