The last several days I have been playing around a fair bit with team data and analyzing various metrics for their usefulness in predicting future outcomes and I have come across some interesting observations. Specifically, with more years of data, fenwick becomes significantly less important/valuable while goals and the percentages become more important/valuable.
He shows 87% correlation between goal differential and on-ice success.
I haven't delved into it much, but when I dipped my toe into it, the "Pythagorean Equation" [GF^2 / (GF^2 + GA^2)] had an 84.7% r-squared while looking at shot differential was 21.3%. This is going back to 07-08. I will go further when I've got the time.
It's obvious for each individual game (you can't win without scoring more goals) but over a full season, even if you blow out some opponents 8-1 and lose to others 5-4, it shakes out as predicted 85% of the time.
Could see the Avs taking the compensation instead actually. Duchene and Stastny down the middle already, and a 1st and 3rd is pretty damn good for a player like O'Reilly. Top 10, maybe even top 5 pick in this year's draft? Yes please.