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The Luongo Thread - Aka "The Salesman"

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02-27-2013, 03:42 PM
  #276
Bleach Clean
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Originally Posted by Godless Servant View Post
I'm not saying you pay for the persona, when I say it's Roberto Luongo, I'm saying it's an elite, top 5 goalie and you're going to pay for it, many teams will go a decade or more with never having seen a goalie of his caliber in their net, yes his contract is long but guess what buttercup, you're going to pay for what he brings your team.
9 years left, people are assuming what? 5 years of Elite, 4 years of ???? It's still 5 years of better than what you got now by a long shot.

Seriously, I imagine Luongo on a team like Philly and it's scary.

Not all elite goalies have the same value. Things like age, contract, mental health (Thomas), and cap factor into these things. Something I think you are not weighting properly. Yes, a team will have to pay, but 1 prime asset is more than enough back, not multiple. Consider that Nash returned, at best, Dubinsky and a mid 1st. Where's the prime asset there? And that was arguably for a better, younger asset. Re-evaluate, fast.

5 elite years is wishful thinking. Odds are that he will not be elite at 39. I think you have to be more realistic about the type of goaltending Luongo is likely to provide, and for how long.


Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
This is what I've been saying for months/years even. You don't just give away Roberto Luongo for meh parts that don't address anything. I also imagine Tampa with Luongo possibly being a reincarnation of the 10-11 Canucks.

From Tampa I'd be happy with Connolly, Gudas and a 1st round pick. What Connolly has over Petrovic is that he is a skilled offensive forward with size, where Petrovic has size but is a defensive defenseman. Connolly addresses a need while Petrovic is blocked by our high priced NTC dmen. Essentially stuck playing the role that I'd be using Gudas in. And that 1st round pick is better than whatever Florida's 2nd would be.


Petrovic is not a meh part. You think he is, I disagree.

At best, I think you're looking at 1 prime asset for Luongo, not multiple. This asset will be what the deal is built around.

And how does Connolly address a current need? I don't think he's had any games in the NHL this year... ?


Last edited by Bleach Clean: 02-27-2013 at 04:34 PM.
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02-27-2013, 03:43 PM
  #277
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Why are these guys continually lumped together like they are similar.

If florida drafted you from 2010 onwards is it a sure sign you're headed towards superstardom.

They're lumped together because Y2K referred to them as the prime assets he wants for Luongo. Nothing more.

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02-27-2013, 04:31 PM
  #278
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
They're lumped together because Y2K referred to them as the prime assets he wants for Luongo. Nothing more.
Didn't you just say not all elite goalies have the same value? Not all prime assets have the same value either...

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02-27-2013, 04:33 PM
  #279
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Didn't you just say not all elite goalies have the same value? Not all prime assets have the same value either...
Ummm I wasn't the one initially grouping them, you did.

You pointed out those 3 names as the pieces in consideration for a Luongo deal. Not me.

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02-27-2013, 04:56 PM
  #280
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I think it's time for a goalie trade, Kes is out for an indefinite amount of time. We need a 2C. Nothing against Schroeder.

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02-27-2013, 05:04 PM
  #281
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Originally Posted by The Classless One View Post
I think it's time for a goalie trade, Kes is out for an indefinite amount of time. We need a 2C. Nothing against Schroeder.
Bad time to make the trade though, you'll get terrible value. Other GMs won't line up to do us a solid in a time of need.

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02-27-2013, 05:39 PM
  #282
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No panic trades.

You move Luongo (or Schneider, if we're catering to that kind of madness in this discussion) when it suits your organization from a long term perspective - or when some team offers you enough to make a deal irresistible. No sooner.

If the season is lost then you regroup in the offseason and moving a goaltender to address a need is one more tool at your disposal.

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02-27-2013, 06:53 PM
  #283
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Ummm I wasn't the one initially grouping them, you did.

You pointed out those 3 names as the pieces in consideration for a Luongo deal. Not me.
Where did I group them on the same level? I said those were the pieces I'd want back. I never said they were all equal, that was your assumption.

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02-27-2013, 08:20 PM
  #284
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Originally Posted by The Classless One View Post
I think it's time for a goalie trade, Kes is out for an indefinite amount of time. We need a 2C. Nothing against Schroeder.
And what are we going to get? If Toronto refused to budge on adding Kadri before. They certainly aren't now with how good he's been. I cannot see Tampa interested after the price they paid for Lindback and Florida is content to fail. Who's left?

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02-27-2013, 08:48 PM
  #285
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Where did I group them on the same level? I said those were the pieces I'd want back. I never said they were all equal, that was your assumption.

I never stated they were equal. There's an obvious distinction between Huberdeau/Gudbranson and Bjugstad. It's you saying that you would not accept a trade without one of those pieces. Meaning, you value Bjugstad very highly, even as a lower comparative centre-piece to the other two.

You are going to be the first person that is called out after the Luongo trade goes down. The type of stuff you have posted on the matter delves into the absurd. Derailing many discussions in the process. It's only a matter of time that you get proven wrong when the deal actually goes down, and then we'll all be passing the "crow plate" pics around.

It's only a matter of time.

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02-27-2013, 08:49 PM
  #286
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
From Tampa I'd be happy with Connolly, Gudas and a 1st round pick. What Connolly has over Petrovic is that he is a skilled offensive forward with size, where Petrovic has size but is a defensive defenseman. Connolly addresses a need while Petrovic is blocked by our high priced NTC dmen. Essentially stuck playing the role that I'd be using Gudas in. And that 1st round pick is better than whatever Florida's 2nd would be.
So the deal built around Kadri was 'crap' and 'spare parts', yet a deal built around Connolly is enticing? Connolly hopes to be Kadri one day... Not to mention how much more valuable it is to have the NHL ready Kadri than Connolly, who can't help an NHL team.

I take it you're admitting you were wrong about Kadri and that's why you want a deal built around Connolly?

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02-27-2013, 08:51 PM
  #287
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
And what are we going to get? If Toronto refused to budge on adding Kadri before. They certainly aren't now with how good he's been. I cannot see Tampa interested after the price they paid for Lindback and Florida is content to fail. Who's left?

In a sense, yeah. That's why I've tempered my expectations on what Luongo returns. While others are still sticking to the "blue-chip" or bust mantra. There's going to be a rude awakening here when that deal goes down, and it's going to break some people.

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02-27-2013, 08:55 PM
  #288
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No one (least of which teams like Florida or Tampa) are going to give up a 1st rounder in a deep draft. If Gillis was getting offers like that Luongo would've been moved already (or he's an idiot).

My guess is the offers were terrible and Gillis likely figured if he was going to take crap in return he might as well get another year out of Luongo that will take him to the point where the Canucks could potentially use a compliance buyout on salary coming the other way if it came to that.

Goaltending has become undervalued in recent years IMO and there just isn't going to be the market for Luongo compared to a defenseman or forward of his caliber. And that's not a slight on him, just how GMs seem to view goaltenders nowadays.

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02-27-2013, 08:55 PM
  #289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
No panic trades.

You move Luongo (or Schneider, if we're catering to that kind of madness in this discussion) when it suits your organization from a long term perspective - or when some team offers you enough to make a deal irresistible. No sooner.

If the season is lost then you regroup in the offseason and moving a goaltender to address a need is one more tool at your disposal.

Agreed.

I especially agree with the term "madness" referring to the alternative. Very fitting.

No rational reason to pull the trigger right now.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Drop the Sopel View Post
So the deal built around Kadri was 'crap' and 'spare parts', yet a deal built around Connolly is enticing? Connolly hopes to be Kadri one day... Not to mention how much more valuable it is to have the NHL ready Kadri than Connolly, who can't help an NHL team.

I take it you're admitting you were wrong about Kadri and that's why you want a deal built around Connolly?

I wanted to say something like this, exactly, but was waiting to see Connolly in the NHL first. Kadri's got a ways to go still, but Y2K's prior assessment just looks so outlandish now that it's become a farce.

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02-27-2013, 09:12 PM
  #290
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
In a sense, yeah. That's why I've tempered my expectations on what Luongo returns. While others are still sticking to the "blue-chip" or bust mantra. There's going to be a rude awakening here when that deal goes down, and it's going to break some people.
It should break people if the return isn't good.

Shore and Petrovic are 'nice' prospects but they aren't anything to write home about.

Vancouver passed on both these players at the draft.

No 1st rounder and the deal looks even worse.

And then you have to listen to Florida fans say none of those pieces are available.

At what point do you move the guy who brings the better package?

I don't care that some you guys think Luongo wants out. He's under contract for 12 years. He made his bed, now he must lay in it.

I don't think it ever gets to the point where he'll be upset by being here.

He's too good to move for marginal pieces. We can't have a joe Thornton to San Jose return here.

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02-27-2013, 09:19 PM
  #291
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
It should break people if the return isn't good.

Shore and Petrovic are 'nice' prospects but they aren't anything to write home about.

Vancouver passed on both these players at the draft.

No 1st rounder and the deal looks even worse.

And then you have to listen to Florida fans say none of those pieces are available.

At what point do you move the guy who brings the better package?

I don't care that some you guys think Luongo wants out. He's under contract for 12 years. He made his bed, now he must lay in it.

I don't think it ever gets to the point where he'll be upset by being here.

He's too good to move for marginal pieces. We can't have a joe Thornton to San Jose return here.


Why does Schneider garner the better package if Luongo is playing much better?



Do you feel that Nash got moved for marginal pieces?


We're only here talking about Luongo moving for months and months because he wants out. That's how we got here. Now you could say that he has to suck it up and play here despite that, but I doubt a player's GM like Gillis thinks the same way. He will accommodate Luongo. It's why he's gotten to the point of openly talking about the trade in the media.


Luongo is a great player, but so was Nash. If you're expecting better pieces than what Nash got, then I'm not sure you are being realistic. Age + Contract + Leverage are definite factors at play.

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02-27-2013, 09:25 PM
  #292
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Why does Schneider garner the better package if Luongo is playing much better?



Do you feel that Nash got moved for marginal pieces?


We're only here talking about Luongo moving for months and months because he wants out. That's how we got here. Now you could say that he has to suck it up and play here despite that, but I doubt a player's GM like Gillis thinks the same way. He will accommodate Luongo. It's why he's gotten to the point of openly talking about the trade in the media.


Luongo is a great player, but so was Nash. If you're expecting better pieces than what Nash got, then I'm not sure you are being realistic. Age + Contract + Leverage are definite factors at play.
Tim Erixon is closer to Gudbranson/Bjugstad than he is to Drew Shore or Alex Petrovic IMO. I think Columbus is better now than they were with Nash (and it seems new York was better without him too).

No point in rehashing why many feel Schneider garners more in a trade, like you said age + contract are factors.

If Gillis caters to one player he is doing a disservice to the organization. I'll be livid if he does so without improving his team. That's his job, not to make friendly with his employees.

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02-27-2013, 09:37 PM
  #293
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
I wanted to say something like this, exactly, but was waiting to see Connolly in the NHL first. Kadri's got a ways to go still, but Y2K's prior assessment just looks so outlandish now that it's become a farce.
He's not the only one that missed the boat on some T.O. players...

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02-27-2013, 09:39 PM
  #294
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Tim Erixon is closer to Gudbranson/Bjugstad than he is to Drew Shore or Alex Petrovic IMO. I think Columbus is better now than they were with Nash (and it seems new York was better without him too).

No point in rehashing why many feel Schneider garners more in a trade, like you said age + contract are factors.

If Gillis caters to one player he is doing a disservice to the organization. I'll be livid if he does so without improving his team. That's his job, not to make friendly with his employees.


Gillis is a player's GM. On a minor scale, he dealt both O'Brien and Hordichuk for even worse crap because he didn't want to waive his players. He wanted to find them a home. Even when he waives a player like Volpatti, he's doing it to improve Volpatti in the long-term, not for any roster reason (I don't think). He will do right by Luongo because A) He's earned it and B) The cap will ensure it.

So in your opinion is Erixon a good enough prime asset to consummate a trade for an "elite player". Because that's our precedent. If we go by this example, and project Luongo to garner less than this due to age and contract, logically, expecting 2-3 prime assets for a return makes no sense. It's implausible, even at a base level.

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02-27-2013, 09:40 PM
  #295
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He's not the only one that missed the boat on some T.O. players...
Oh, is Bozak good now?

The major difference here is that underlying numbers supported Kadri's projection, while the opposite was true for Bozak. But let's gloss over that for your convenience.

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02-27-2013, 09:40 PM
  #296
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
No one (least of which teams like Florida or Tampa) are going to give up a 1st rounder in a deep draft. If Gillis was getting offers like that Luongo would've been moved already (or he's an idiot).

My guess is the offers were terrible and Gillis likely figured if he was going to take crap in return he might as well get another year out of Luongo that will take him to the point where the Canucks could potentially use a compliance buyout on salary coming the other way if it came to that.

Goaltending has become undervalued in recent years IMO and there just isn't going to be the market for Luongo compared to a defenseman or forward of his caliber. And that's not a slight on him, just how GMs seem to view goaltenders nowadays.
I don't buy that. We saw a GM draft Campbell in the 1st round, 11th overall with many interesting prospects (including Fowler) still on the board.

I think he's holding out for the offer that he has said he's holding out for: a contributing player, a high-end prospect and a pick/lower prospect. I think he'll get it too.

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02-27-2013, 09:42 PM
  #297
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Oh, is Bozak good now?
Mr.Replacement Level? Still terrible. Lucky to be in the league.

Matt Frattin's production is never going to translate either.

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02-27-2013, 09:43 PM
  #298
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
I don't buy that. We saw a GM draft Campbell in the 1st round, 11th overall with many interesting prospects (including Fowler) still on the board.

I think he's holding out for the offer that he has said he's holding out for: a contributing player, a high-end prospect and a pick/lower prospect. I think he'll get it too.

What is going to change to allow Gillis to get that type of return? Note, your description only lists one prime asset: The "high-end" prospect.

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02-27-2013, 09:43 PM
  #299
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Agreed.

I especially agree with the term "madness" referring to the alternative. Very fitting.

No rational reason to pull the trigger right now.





I wanted to say something like this, exactly, but was waiting to see Connolly in the NHL first. Kadri's got a ways to go still, but Y2K's prior assessment just looks so outlandish now that it's become a farce.
Not at all. I still wouldn't have any interest in Nazem Kadri or any of the other Toronto crap that was being offered.

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02-27-2013, 09:45 PM
  #300
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Mr.Replacement Level? Still terrible. Lucky to be in the league.

Matt Frattin's production is never going to translate either.

Read my edit. Bozak had articles written on him that well outlined his "replacement level" play. Meanwhile, Kadri's underlying numbers were strong in his short stints.

Come back to me when Frattin isn't shooting at a 39% rate anymore.

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