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Flames sign O'Reilly to Offer Sheet

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Old
02-27-2013, 08:51 PM
  #226
Bender
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Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
I don't disagree with you. I think ROR will continue to put up points, or increase his totals if given a true 1st or 2nd line role with good linemates.

That's a tough sell though if the other team is giving up Little, plus a better/more valuable piece than Little. I don't think the Avs could land that kind of deal unless they added pretty good piece to O'Reilly. It'd have to be at least Barrie, and that possibly might not be enough if they have concerns with him. The Avs don't have any other similar pieces in terms of value, unless they're giving up their 1st, which would be doubtful in that kind of deal.
You say that you don't disagree but you are (which is fine by the way) if you are including Barrie OR our 1st round pick which is completely and totally OFF-LIMITS. This is what this whole thing is all about: keeping Sacco as our head coach, waiting to make a move for RoR, it's all about the player we are eventually going to get with that pick in June. There is absolutely ZERO way that draft pick is going anywhere.

About the matter at hand, if you look at the stats that Little has put up so far in his career (I thought it would be unfair to only posts RoRs):


You can see that his very best season was his first FULL season in the NHL playing 4:00m per game on the PP with Kovalchuk amongst others. His 4 full seasons in the NHL average out to 45 points and I'd say that's about average or maybe even a bit low for a 2nd line center/top 6 winger. That's with full/adequate PP time, something that RoR only had last season. His stats are a bit reminiscent of what David Jones has put up the past few years. Don't get me wrong, I think Little is a better all around player than Jones but it puts things in perspective.

*To reverse the situation, if the Jets needed to trade Andrew Ladd and we were offering David Jones and something else but NOT Duncan Siemens at any cost. That's about the way I see it right now. (obviously Jones hasn't started the season on time but he'll get his points unless he gets injured, he always goes hot and cold)

You seem to believe that adding something to Little would be a stretch or a 'tough sell' because he's close to what RoR is where I believe it's not as close as you might think. A kid who had the kind of season RoR did, at that age, while playing elite defense is absolutely quite rare. So when you consider that O'Reilly is already better than Little AND still has room to keep getting better PLUS the fantastic defensive play, that's why I don't think it's as close as you think. If it was and he was just 'close' to what Little already is, do you really believe there would be 12-13 teams interested? Not even close.
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02-27-2013, 08:54 PM
  #227
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It's hard finding a good fit with Boston. Hamilton is someone I can't see Boston wanting to part to get another center, Seguin is obviously not going anywhere, Spooner isn't good enough, Horton isn't a good fit for all the reasons we've mentioned.

O'Reilly + Elliott for Hamilton is the closest I can come to something that might work but the level of risk for both teams in that trade might be uncomfortably high.
Too risky for my tastes...that's the kind of trade that can come back and bite real hard.

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02-27-2013, 09:15 PM
  #228
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You say that you don't disagree but you are (which is fine by the way) if you are including Barrie OR our 1st round pick which is completely and totally OFF-LIMITS. This is what this whole thing is all about: keeping Sacco as our head coach, waiting to make a move for RoR, it's all about the player we are eventually going to get with that pick in June. There is absolutely ZERO way that draft pick is going anywhere.

About the matter at hand, if you look at the stats that Little has put up so far in his career (I thought it would be unfair to only posts RoRs):


You can see that his very best season was his first FULL season in the NHL playing 4:00m per game on the PP with Kovalchuk amongst others. His 4 full seasons in the NHL average out to 45 points and I'd say that's about average or maybe even a bit low for a 2nd line center/top 6 winger. That's with full/adequate PP time, something that RoR only had last season. His stats are a bit reminiscent of what David Jones has put up the past few years. Don't get me wrong, I think Little is a better all around player than Jones but it puts things in perspective.

*To reverse the situation, if the Jets needed to trade Andrew Ladd and we were offering David Jones and something else but NOT Duncan Siemens at any cost. That's about the way I see it right now. (obviously Jones hasn't started the season on time but he'll get his points unless he gets injured, he always goes hot and cold)

You seem to believe that adding something to Little would be a stretch or a 'tough sell' because he's close to what RoR is where I believe it's not as close as you might think. A kid who had the kind of season RoR did, at that age, while playing elite defense is absolutely quite rare. So when you consider that O'Reilly is already better than Little AND still has room to keep getting better PLUS the fantastic defensive play, that's why I don't think it's as close as you think. If it was and he was just 'close' to what Little already is, do you really believe there would be 12-13 teams interested? Not even close.
I agree in what you think O'Reilly will be going forward, especially on another team with a bigger role.

I disagree with how much you think the Avs can get back in addition to Little, if the Avs don't add a big piece to O'Reilly. These are two different things. If the other piece from the Jets is that much better in value than Little, I think it will be close to equaling O'Reilly in value. So that means whatever else we add would have to equal the value of Little. I don't see that being O'Byrne, O'Brien, or Wilson, or whatever the forward or propect equivalent would be.

Maybe it will be more clear if we talk about what you think the second piece would be in addition to Little. If the main part of the deal from Winnipeg is something better than Little, what would that be? Bogo? Trouba?

If it's Bogo or that kind of value, than I'll stick with my belief the Avs would have to add a big piece rather than a depth D. If you mean Trouba, I'm not really sure on that because I have a hard time assessing his value. I'm a little wary of his ultimate offensive upside, but it seems like most people value him pretty highly.


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02-27-2013, 09:53 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
I agree in what you think O'Reilly will be going forward, especially on another team with a bigger role.

I disagree with how much you think the Avs can get back in addition to Little, if the Avs don't add a big piece to O'Reilly. These are two different things. If the other piece from the Jets is that much better in value than Little, I think it will be close to equaling O'Reilly in value. So that means whatever else we add would have to equal the value of Little. I don't see that being O'Byrne, O'Brien, or Wilson, or whatever the forward or propect equivalent would be.

Maybe it will be more clear if we talk about what you think the second piece would be in addition to Little. If the main part of the deal from Winnipeg is something better than Little, what would that be? Bogo? Trouba?

If it's Bogo or that kind of value, than I'll stick with my belief the Avs would have to add a big piece rather than a depth D. If you mean Trouba, I'm not really sure on that because I have a hard time assessing his value. I'm a little wary of his ultimate offensive upside, but it seems like most people value him pretty highly.
Ok, now I get a bit more where you're coming from. It wouldn't be Bogosian because he's got wayyyy too much upside and is already a big part of their team right now.

The thing is this...Trouba is looking like a great prospect but like many who have come before him, got drafted and looked to be a future building block, nothing is certain. So you CANNOT take it at face value that he's going to absolutely become a top pairing guy because of that risk. His ACTUAL value is that of a 9th overall pick who has played well so far and is progressing nicely. No more, no less. There are 8 other teams who prefered OTHER players than this guy and that includes SIX defencemen.

So you cannot say, the Avs would be getting Bryan Little who's a top-6 guy AND Trouba a top pairing guy because that's not accurate since Trouba is not that player YET and may never even develop into that player...the risk is the reason the value isn't as high as you're suggesting.

Put it this way, if today was draft day, 2012 and the Avs had an offer on the table for Little + 9th overall pick for RoR, what do you think 99% of Avs fans would say? Let alone ADD anything to the deal.

The only difference with that scenario is that we know they picked Trouba in that spot and he played very, very well in the WJC. Like I've said before, the list of players to go on and excel after being drafted only to end up not quite reach their potential is very long. (Hickey, Pogge, Filatov, etc.) Do you remember Justin Pogge's performance at the WJC and how amazing he was going to be for the leafs, that he made Tuuka Rask expendable and all that? THAT'S the reason a prospect is still just a prospect.

Trouba's value is close to what Duncan Siemens value is to us, probably a bit more because of his play at the WJC but Duncan has been a rock for most of this season. Trouba was rated 9th by TSN,THN & Central Scouting, 11th by redline, 10th by McKeens and 5th by ISS (and 5th by me too, because I think very highly of this guy).

I haven't been against adding something to the deal either but I wouldn't add a piece that could end up giving them the best player in the deal AND possibly the best prospect in the deal, that just wouldn't work for me. By adding Barrie, that could be exactly what we'd be doing because you never really know how things will work out.

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02-27-2013, 10:10 PM
  #230
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Ok, now I get a bit more where you're coming from. It wouldn't be Bogosian because he's got wayyyy too much upside and is already a big part of their team right now.

The thing is this...Trouba is looking like a great prospect but like many who have come before him, got drafted and looked to be a future building block, nothing is certain. So you CANNOT take it at face value that he's going to absolutely become a top pairing guy because of that risk. His ACTUAL value is that of a 9th overall pick who has played well so far and is progressing nicely. No more, no less. There are 8 other teams who prefered OTHER players than this guy and that includes SIX defencemen.

So you cannot say, the Avs would be getting Bryan Little who's a top-6 guy AND Trouba a top pairing guy because that's not accurate since Trouba is not that player YET and may never even develop into that player...the risk is the reason the value isn't as high as you're suggesting.

Put it this way, if today was draft day, 2012 and the Avs had an offer on the table for Little + 9th overall pick for RoR, what do you think 99% of Avs fans would say? Let alone ADD anything to the deal.

The only difference with that scenario is that we know they picked Trouba in that spot and he played very, very well in the WJC. Like I've said before, the list of players to go on and excel after being drafted only to end up not quite reach their potential is very long. (Hickey, Pogge, Filatov, etc.) Do you remember Justin Pogge's performance at the WJC and how amazing he was going to be for the leafs, that he made Tuuka Rask expendable and all that? THAT'S the reason a prospect is still just a prospect.

Trouba's value is close to what Duncan Siemens value is to us, probably a bit more because of his play at the WJC but Duncan has been a rock for most of this season. Trouba was rated 9th by TSN,THN & Central Scouting, 11th by redline, 10th by McKeens and 5th by ISS (and 5th by me too, because I think very highly of this guy).

I haven't been against adding something to the deal either but I wouldn't add a piece that could end up giving them the best player in the deal AND possibly the best prospect in the deal, that just wouldn't work for me. By adding Barrie, that could be exactly what we'd be doing because you never really know how things will work out.
I'm with you on most everything here in principle. I'm with you on Trouba, I don't have a strong interest in him, because I'm worried his end product won't have enough offense, so therefore I don't see the point in trading O'Reilly for that. I'm not even interested in Little, because I don't see any need for a player like that, with other much bigger holes to fill.

I'm also with you on the fact that you are going to be very hard pressed to end up with a better player like O'Reilly with to use your example, a 9th overall pick. Unproven prospects and draft picks pale in comparison to a player like O'Reilly.

In practice however, that team has to give up that asset. Getting a team to give up a 9th overall pick is pretty hard. Even though we may agree on how we value a prospect like Trouba, Winnipeg is gonna value him highly, and not give him up easily. No matter how stocked they are on D.

In terms of realistic value, and to use your example, I don't see how the Avs can get much more real value than a 9th overall pick for O'Reilly. Something small in addition, sure maybe, but if they are trying to get Little back in addition to that, they'll have to add a pretty good piece, and to me that's not O'Byrne, O'Brien, Wilson etc.

I think you probably disagree, and who knows maybe you're right. Personally, I hope we don't find out, because that kind of package isn't all that appealing to me. I'd rather they push for an MDZ type, and they could fairly easily find a Hejda type player as a UFA, or just be happy with Siemens playing a similar role as Trouba. Even if it ends up being below what he becomes.

Same with Little. I think they could address what he would bring to the table in a lot of ways, like UFA, or develop a prospect or draft pick. That offensive D that's already in the league, or even a more power winger or two way center would be a better option to help replace O'Reilly/Stastny and/or Jones.

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02-27-2013, 11:31 PM
  #231
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I don't understand why people flipped when we traded Shatty, and are now throwing Elliott and Barrie into trades like they're nothing.....

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02-27-2013, 11:55 PM
  #232
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I don't understand why people flipped when we traded Shatty, and are now throwing Elliott and Barrie into trades like they're nothing.....
Because Shattenkirk was playing great for us at the time and is more than likely going to be better than both of them for the duration of their respective careers? That and Avs fans at the time were like every other fanbase that hadn't actually watched Erik Johnson play routinely yet; thought of him as a bust

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02-28-2013, 12:15 AM
  #233
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Eh, I loved Shatty, but I see a similar cerebral quality to Barries game that made me fall for Cap'n Kirk. I think they'll be very close players, while Elliott still has the tools to blow both of them away. I think if we hold onto both Barrie and Elliott until at the very earliest next trade deadline they could be a great piece to put the finishing touch on our core. But there value isn't there yet, Barrie's getting there if Sacco can just leave him with Hejda, and Elliott should start getting there around the next TDL.

I don't think we make good trading partners with the jets unless it's something like Trouba with a real + added to him like Burmi. I think that ultimately we'll trade ROR in the summer to a team that can offer us an EJ partner as the centerpiece of their proposal, as long as we don't get Seth Jones. Finish next year pushing for the playoffs with:

Ginner - Dutchy - PAP
Landy - Staz - Drouin
Jones - Sgar - Downie

Kulikov - EJ
Hejda - Barrie
Wilson - Elliott
SOB

with us being able to package one of the PMDs to seriously upgrade one of the forward spots if needed.

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02-28-2013, 12:50 AM
  #234
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Pros and Cons of Trouba, Gormley, Reinhart, and (dare i Say it) Rielly?

Seems like trading ROR and getting a D partner for EJ who is top line ready for next year and fits within the mold of our rebuild (under 27) may prove to be difficult.

I don't know enough about the prospects to compare them and their readiness to play in the NHL.
Makes sense to me to get one who could start as 5/6 and eventually move up and replace Wilson by the end of the year (2014). Should also "cost" less than a Yandle/MDZ because Avs could get another piece as well in return.

Preparing to be informed.....

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02-28-2013, 01:09 AM
  #235
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Given the Avalanche's recent history of going after young NHLers as opposed to prospects, as well as pressure on management to put a quality product on the ice (and probably show they "won" the trade), I will be very, very surprised if the main piece of any potential Ryan O'Reilly trade isn't immediate help.

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02-28-2013, 02:13 AM
  #236
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Originally Posted by Avs View Post
I don't understand why people flipped when we traded Shatty, and are now throwing Elliott and Barrie into trades like they're nothing.....
Actually Shatty was Ice cold for us when we traded him. He came out much like Barrie on his current hot steak but cooled off quickly, and was horrible defensively. This was all around the time Stewart broke his fist on Brozdiak's face.

BUt yeah Im with you, to me Barrie is near untouchable

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02-28-2013, 02:32 AM
  #237
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Actually Shatty was Ice cold for us when we traded him. He came out much like Barrie on his current hot steak but cooled off quickly, and was horrible defensively. This was all around the time Stewart broke his fist on Brozdiak's face.

BUt yeah Im with you, to me Barrie is near untouchable
Maybe I just want to see it but I think Barrie has been much better overall than Shattenkirk was for us. Shatty was more of a goal scorer than Barrie has been so far but when I look at the points/game the difference isn't big. Especially when I take Barrie's slow start and the general low scoring of the team into consideration.
Defensively Barrie has been pretty unreal for a rookie.

Yeah, Barrie is untouchable at the moment. I hope Avs will keep Elliott, too. The kid has a lot of potential and it would be nice for our powerplay to have both of them in the lineup. If we get something really good as a return for O'Reilly plus Elliott I'll be okay with trading him, though.

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02-28-2013, 02:35 AM
  #238
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O'Reilly for Ovechkin lets start up the paper work

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02-28-2013, 02:45 AM
  #239
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O'Reilly for Ovechkin lets start up the paper work
Considering Ovie's lack of effort, no no no no and no thanks.

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02-28-2013, 02:48 AM
  #240
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Sacco could get the most out of him

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02-28-2013, 04:00 AM
  #241
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Considering Ovie's lack of effort, no no no no and no thanks.
To be honest, I wouldn't trade anything for Ovy right now. His contract is absolutely awful and It would be kinda killer having 9 million dollar contract per year and get 60-70 points out of it every year. We have already one Stastny.

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02-28-2013, 08:18 AM
  #242
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Newport reps are meeting with the Rangers today per Katie Strang.

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02-28-2013, 08:49 AM
  #243
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Newport reps are meeting with the Rangers today per Katie Strang.
God No. Rangers are an even worse trading partner than the Leafs right now.
McDonagh hurt, Girardi hurt, DelZotto hurt and they got no 1st this year. The good thing about that is that they can not offer an offersheet.

I dislike Del Zotto and Miller/Kreider/Stepan really do not entice me at all. McIlrath anyone ?

And if we trade with Sather we will get hosed. Sherman is no match for him in trade negotiations

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02-28-2013, 08:53 AM
  #244
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God No. Rangers are an even worse trading partner than the Leafs right now.
McDonagh hurt, Girardi hurt, DelZotto hurt and they got no 1st this year. The good thing about that is that they can not offer an offersheet.

I dislike Del Zotto and Miller/Kreider/Stepan really do not entice me at all. McIlrath anyone ?

And if we trade with Sather we will get hosed. Sherman is no match for him in trade negotiations
Yeah, I think I may rather try Gardiner than DZ.

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02-28-2013, 09:08 AM
  #245
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It is probably more for Zuc than ROR (rumors of Zuc returning to the Rangers after the KHL season). I bet there is some ROR talk, like contract demands, but that will be about the extent of it.

MDZ is better than Gardiner. After Winnipeg and Florida, the Rangers probably match up the best for the Avs. They have good defensive depth and some good prospects in the pipeline. In the end I don't really see the need from a NYR point of view. They have Richards and Stepan as their top 6 centers. It only makes sense if they want to get rid of Richards for a cheaper, younger center (they only have ~10m to re-sign Haglin, Stepan, MacDonagh, and a depth forward).

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02-28-2013, 09:21 AM
  #246
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Given the Avalanche's recent history of going after young NHLers as opposed to prospects, as well as pressure on management to put a quality product on the ice (and probably show they "won" the trade), I will be very, very surprised if the main piece of any potential Ryan O'Reilly trade isn't immediate help.
This is a good point. Not the immediate help part, because Johnson, Varlamov, McGinn, and Downie weren't immediate help trades, but when was the last time the Avs traded for a highly ranked prospect? Ever? If O'Reilly is going, I doubt the "best piece" in the trade is younger than 22 years old.

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02-28-2013, 09:24 AM
  #247
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This is a good point. Not the immediate help part, because Johnson, Varlamov, McGinn, and Downie weren't immediate help trades, but when was the last time the Avs traded for a highly ranked prospect? Ever? If O'Reilly is going, I doubt the "best piece" in the trade is younger than 22 years old.
If that is the case, we will lose this trade badly. Noone is giving up a player similar in value to ROR who is similar in age.

If we are going this route, Little better start looking for some real estate in Denver. I really hope that we will go after one of the top prospects. A solid roster player in return is great but I rather get the great prospect than a guy like Little..

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02-28-2013, 09:41 AM
  #248
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I would not mind sending ROR to the Yotes. Gormley+ would make me a happy fan.

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02-28-2013, 09:44 AM
  #249
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I'm with you on most everything here in principle. I'm with you on Trouba, I don't have a strong interest in him, because I'm worried his end product won't have enough offense, so therefore I don't see the point in trading O'Reilly for that. I'm not even interested in Little, because I don't see any need for a player like that, with other much bigger holes to fill.

I'm also with you on the fact that you are going to be very hard pressed to end up with a better player like O'Reilly with to use your example, a 9th overall pick. Unproven prospects and draft picks pale in comparison to a player like O'Reilly.

In practice however, that team has to give up that asset. Getting a team to give up a 9th overall pick is pretty hard. Even though we may agree on how we value a prospect like Trouba, Winnipeg is gonna value him highly, and not give him up easily. No matter how stocked they are on D.

In terms of realistic value, and to use your example, I don't see how the Avs can get much more real value than a 9th overall pick for O'Reilly. Something small in addition, sure maybe, but if they are trying to get Little back in addition to that, they'll have to add a pretty good piece, and to me that's not O'Byrne, O'Brien, Wilson etc.
I get what your saying about Trouba's offense but it's probably better than you think. Even still, my personal belief is that it's not going to matter. It's like saying you don't want a young Adam Foote because he doesn't provide offense. [Trouba will be better than Foote on offense, I believe]

As for the second part, teams give up those kinds of draft picks literally all the time.

2007/06/22 San Jose Sharks traded Vesa Toskala and Mark Bell from the Toronto Maple Leafs for a conditional 1st round selection in 2007, a 2nd round selection in 2007 and a 4th round selection in 2009.

That 1st rounder turned out to be Logan Couture (9th overall). [Man, the leafs REALLY made some bad decisions when you think they could of had Tuuka Rask & Logan Couture by NOT making dumb ass trades]

As we all know, the Avs traded a 1st rounder that ended up 11th for Varlamov.

Perhaps the best comparable, both in a package return AND in the type of player that was dealt is the Jordan Staal trade of last year.

J. Staal returned:

-> B.Sutter,C (solid 3rd line center that had put up 40,29 and 32 point seasons | PP time reduced from 1:55m in Season 1 to 0:46s & 0:26s in following seasons with the arrival of Skinner)
-> 7th overall pick (Derrick Pouliot,D picked 2 spots before Trouba)
-> Brian Dumoulin (2nd round pick - 51st overall 2009)

Now, keep in mind that Rutherford COULD have waited the year out and got Staal for FREE this summer but made the trade anyways (bad asset management, if you ask me). Here is an interesting article by LeBrun on this I read a few days ago:http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/i...-pens-chirping

Little is more offensive, Sutter is better defensively and with adequate PP time, CAN put up more points but probably better suited to a 3rd line C role. The 7th overall vs 9th overall usually means a 3rd round pick to move up to (at the draft anyways) and a developed 21 year old, former 2nd round pick is a pretty good return for Staal.

Based on this and the fact that the Avs can negotiate with 29 other teams while the Penguins apparently only had 2 options, I don't get how you can think that we'd be hard pressed to get more than a 9th overall pick.

The REAL point is this though, when teams see that there is an asset available, a guy they feel they need, they need to step up and get the deal done. Just like the Avs did with Varly and just like Rutherford did with Jordan Staal. Is it possible that Filip Forsberg goes on to score 40 goals per year in the NHL? Yep. THAT'S the risk of going out there and getting the guy you feel you need on your team. Don't have the balls to make those kinds of deals?? Then you DON'T get that player and you end up a team like the leafs who WANT Centers and Goalies but are afraid of making a bad trade.

If the Avs were only to get a 9th overall pick (or a prospect like Trouba) as a return for O'Reilly, it would be a colossal failure because of the risks involved with draft picks and prospects. You don't want to come away from a deal like this with a 'maybe', you want to come away with a deal like this with a 'ok, we've got this and the chance for 'wow'!'. That's my take on it anyways.

Quote:
Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Newport reps are meeting with the Rangers today per Katie Strang.
Barff...do not want Del Zotto. Marc Staal or GTFO. (don't care if it's not realistic, that would be the guy I would want)

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02-28-2013, 09:46 AM
  #250
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bohlmeister View Post
Yeah, I think I may rather try Gardiner than DZ.
I like Gardiner, but why him rather than Del Zotto? They're the same exact age, yet one is far more proven at the NHL level and even has playoff experience. Gardiner is a much bigger risk at this point.

Richards has been horrible this year. Wouldn't be surprised if they want another center. Girardi played last game, and McDonough and Del Zotto are skating, so the injuries aren't that serious.

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