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The Luongo Thread - Aka "The Salesman"

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02-27-2013, 10:08 PM
  #301
arsmaster
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Gillis is a player's GM. On a minor scale, he dealt both O'Brien and Hordichuk for even worse crap because he didn't want to waive his players. He wanted to find them a home. Even when he waives a player like Volpatti, he's doing it to improve Volpatti in the long-term, not for any roster reason (I don't think). He will do right by Luongo because A) He's earned it and B) The cap will ensure it.

So in your opinion is Erixon a good enough prime asset to consummate a trade for an "elite player". Because that's our precedent. If we go by this example, and project Luongo to garner less than this due to age and contract, logically, expecting 2-3 prime assets for a return makes no sense. It's implausible, even at a base level.
I like the package CBJ got. All the pieces.

Edit* I've already included the age and contract in my valuation. It's why Nash got four pieces and I only want 3. Just like Tiranis suggested.


Last edited by arsmaster: 02-27-2013 at 10:14 PM.
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02-27-2013, 10:12 PM
  #302
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
I don't buy that. We saw a GM draft Campbell in the 1st round, 11th overall with many interesting prospects (including Fowler) still on the board.

I think he's holding out for the offer that he has said he's holding out for: a contributing player, a high-end prospect and a pick/lower prospect. I think he'll get it too.
A piss poor GM.

Nieuwendyk added a solid player to James (has never scored less than 20 goals) Neal for Goligoski.

Also made a suspect trade of Ryder and drafted Scott (thank Brayden Schenn for my draft placement) Glennie - 8th overall.

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02-27-2013, 10:12 PM
  #303
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Read my edit. Bozak had articles written on him that well outlined his "replacement level" play. Meanwhile, Kadri's underlying numbers were strong in his short stints.

Come back to me when Frattin isn't shooting at a 39% rate anymore.
One article... by a hack.

I'm just messing with you, way too early to make judgements.

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02-27-2013, 10:14 PM
  #304
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
I like the package CBJ got. All the pieces.
Which of those assets do you consider "prime"? I like the package too. I just want to be clear on which assets that deal was built around. They weren't all "prime".



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One article... by a hack.

I'm just messing with you, way too early to make judgements.
I hate you.

I like Charron.

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02-27-2013, 10:17 PM
  #305
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"Ben ScriVezina" may not be the answer quite yet.

Fun aside, I would love to get Frattin out of Toronto. He seems like a late bloomer and has an energy to his game we could use. Sort of like Gallagher for the Habs.

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02-27-2013, 10:23 PM
  #306
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
A piss poor GM.

Nieuwendyk added a solid player to James (has never scored less than 20 goals) Neal for Goligoski.

Also made a suspect trade of Ryder and drafted Scott (thank Brayden Schenn for my draft placement) Glennie - 8th overall.
There's a lot of piss poor GMs in the league. If that's all it takes to get a good return for Luongo then we'll be fine.

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02-27-2013, 10:40 PM
  #307
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Not at all. I still wouldn't have any interest in Nazem Kadri or any of the other Toronto crap that was being offered.
Crap
Kadri's assist today would put him in a tie with Henrik for 2nd place in scoring on the Canucks. He's barely playing on the PP playing 3rd line minutes overall (on a line with Colton Orr today) andactually playing with an edge... all that while being 22 years old... not bad I would say.

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02-27-2013, 11:04 PM
  #308
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Originally Posted by bleed_oil View Post
Crap
Kadri's assist today would put him in a tie with Henrik for 2nd place in scoring on the Canucks. He's barely playing on the PP playing 3rd line minutes overall (on a line with Colton Orr today) andactually playing with an edge... all that while being 22 years old... not bad I would say.
Highest Zone starts of any forward on his team.

2.5 minutes of PP time.

He's performing better than I expected, I'm willing to admit that, but he's being sheltered and playing against weak competition (from what I can see...one of our resident advanced stat guys will correct me if I'm wrong)

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02-27-2013, 11:12 PM
  #309
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Which of those assets do you consider "prime"? I like the package too. I just want to be clear on which assets that deal was built around. They weren't all "prime".
Erixon is a top prospect/blue chipper IMO. A 1st round pick is a 1st round pick.

Dubinsky is a top 6 forward and I really like Anisimov as a player (I'd actually love to have him here as our #3C).

From Florida IMO the comparables:

Erixon-Bjugstad
Dubinsky-Versteeg or Weiss (upcoming UFA)
1st-1st

Anisimov doesn't have a comparable in florida.

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02-27-2013, 11:13 PM
  #310
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Highest Zone starts of any forward on his team.

2.5 minutes of PP time.

He's performing better than I expected, I'm willing to admit that, but he's being sheltered and playing against weak competition (from what I can see...one of our resident advanced stat guys will correct me if I'm wrong)
Highest zone starts are actually because Carlyle only lets Bozak or Grabovski take draws in there own zone.
And surely if you are going to discredit him for playing weak competition you should credit the guy for getting points regardless of the stiffs they throw him out there. He has single handedly handed setup Frattin and MacArther for pretty much all there goals. Has played with Orr and McClement for long stretches as well. Thats not exactly a lot to work with.

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Old
02-27-2013, 11:35 PM
  #311
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Erixon is a top prospect/blue chipper IMO. A 1st round pick is a 1st round pick.

Dubinsky is a top 6 forward and I really like Anisimov as a player (I'd actually love to have him here as our #3C).

From Florida IMO the comparables:

Erixon-Bjugstad
Dubinsky-Versteeg or Weiss (upcoming UFA)
1st-1st

Anisimov doesn't have a comparable in florida.



There are degrees of 1st rounders. This one is likely mid to late.

Ok, so the prime assets are Erixon (dunno about "blue-chip") and Dubinsky? I'm not as bullish on Anisimov as you are though... So to me, the order goes:

Erixon
Dubinsky
1st
Anisimov

As a result, do you think Luongo garner's as much overall as Nash? I do not. So let's just say for example that we drop Anisimov to reflect the change in value. These are the effects of Luongo's age and contract (could be more btw). Now you have a late 1st, Dubinsky (top6 tweener with a big contract) and Erixon. Remember, the prime asset is still Erixon.

After all this, the debate will become: Is Erixon on the same level of a Bjugstad? I think he's good, but not at that level good. Projection is everything. Thus, what people are expecting here is for Gillis to get a better prime asset than Rick Nash garnered, along with the roster player and late 1st. That's been the conversation so far. Now factor in FLA's comparatively higher draft position (likely), and it changes the weighting of the other two assets, or it should.

Basically, a 1st + Weiss + prospect format only yields Bjugstad as the prospect if the other two things in the deal are downgraded. Otherwise, people are expecting more than Nash = unrealistic.

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Old
02-27-2013, 11:43 PM
  #312
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
There are degrees of 1st rounders. This one is likely mid to late.

Ok, so the prime assets are Erixon (dunno about "blue-chip") and Dubinsky? I'm not as bullish on Anisimov as you are though... So to me, the order goes:

Erixon
Dubinsky
1st
Anisimov

As a result, do you think Luongo garner's as much overall as Nash? I do not. So let's just say for example that we drop Anisimov to reflect the change in value. These are the effects of Luongo's age and contract (could be more btw). Now you have a late 1st, Dubinsky (top6 tweener with a big contract) and Erixon. Remember, the prime asset is still Erixon.

After all this, the debate will become: Is Erixon on the same level of a Bjugstad? I think he's good, but not at that level good. Projection is everything. Thus, what people are expecting here is for Gillis to get a better prime asset than Rick Nash garnered, along with the roster player and late 1st. That's been the conversation so far. Now factor in FLA's comparatively higher draft position (likely), and it changes the weighting of the other two assets, or it should.

Basically, a 1st + Weiss + prospect format only yields Bjugstad as the prospect if the other two things in the deal are downgraded. Otherwise, people are expecting more than Nash = unrealistic.
When I truly cared about making the trade was before the season started.

Making the degree of difference Between the 1sts negligible considering at the time, FLA was an upstart division champ.

New York is struggling, they might be in the lottery for all we know at this point.

Erixon was NYR's prospect that was 2nd or 3rd down the line of impressive young players, thus Bjugstad (some people already mke this kid out to be Mario Lemieux - he's a top prospect but not everyone maxes out their potential). behind Huberdeau and Kulikov/Gudbranson.

Either way. I dont see any move happening until the draft, so once again this conversation is just inflating my post count.

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02-27-2013, 11:55 PM
  #313
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02-28-2013, 12:02 AM
  #314
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Drama!
Twist is he would have pulled him after the first goal.

The pulled Schneider after 2 more goals.

Then put Hansen in net.

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02-28-2013, 12:04 AM
  #315
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Twist is he would have pulled him after the first goal.

The pulled Schneider after 2 more goals.

Then put Hansen in net.
Then given both his goalies beatings on the bench? Wouldn't be a first...

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Old
02-28-2013, 12:04 AM
  #316
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
When I truly cared about making the trade was before the season started.

Making the degree of difference Between the 1sts negligible considering at the time, FLA was an upstart division champ.

New York is struggling, they might be in the lottery for all we know at this point.

Erixon was NYR's prospect that was 2nd or 3rd down the line of impressive young players, thus Bjugstad (some people already mke this kid out to be Mario Lemieux - he's a top prospect but not everyone maxes out their potential). behind Huberdeau and Kulikov/Gudbranson.

Either way. I dont see any move happening until the draft, so once again this conversation is just inflating my post count.


This same conversation will come up again after the season, and yet again after the trade. Can't avoid the post count inflation arsmaster.

I know Erixon was one of the top NYR prospects, but across the two teams, Bjugstad is a better quality prospect simply due to his physical tools. He likely will never reach the awesome projection some have placed upon him, but he still has those traits going for him. The comparison isn't even in that regard because the pools are not even.



At the draft it only gets harder because now Weiss is a UFA/or signed, which means he's not an option. So even more futures will have to be extracted from FLA to compensate. Not to mention that now Gillis faces the pressure of getting his team cap compliant...

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02-28-2013, 12:06 AM
  #317
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
"Ben ScriVezina" may not be the answer quite yet.

Fun aside, I would love to get Frattin out of Toronto. He seems like a late bloomer and has an energy to his game we could use. Sort of like Gallagher for the Habs.
If only we could have scouted Gallagher.......

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Old
02-28-2013, 12:15 AM
  #318
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Lu shouldnt feel so bad, Pekka Rinne got shelled pretty bad too by anaheim,although Trotz pulled him after the 2nd period.Of course people wont call it a meltdown,because he was pulled before it turned to 8.


Last edited by theripper: 02-28-2013 at 12:21 AM.
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Old
02-28-2013, 12:31 AM
  #319
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Not at all. I still wouldn't have any interest in Nazem Kadri or any of the other Toronto crap that was being offered.
Of course you wouldn't. That would be manning up and admitting you were wrong.

Why is Brett Connolly worth moving Luongo for but not Kadri? Because you want to blame Schneider for the teams inability to score goals come playoff time? You plan on cheering for the Oilers once Luongo is dealt and want the Canucks to get a lesser return?

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03-01-2013, 12:01 AM
  #320
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Was just reading back threw the Around the league thread and seen it speculated that Canucks gave ROR an offer sheet, It is not like MG to give an offer sheet that would have been matched unless, he was trying to do something like he talked about with weber, a 1 year deal that to try and get him to FA.

Any way I thought I would throw some wild speculation out there...

MG dose Colorado solid, by forcing the issue of offer sheet in order to get ROR to sign. This was obviously a cap friendly deal that Colorado would match or as happened pushed anther team on an offer, this gets ROR signed.

Reason... Well ROR could have been the peace that needed to drop in order for a Lou deal to go through.

Any takers?

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03-01-2013, 12:04 AM
  #321
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Was just reading back threw the Around the league thread and seen it speculated that Canucks gave ROR an offer sheet, It is not like MG to give an offer sheet that would have been matched unless, he was trying to do something like he talked about with weber, a 1 year deal that to try and get him to FA.

Any way I thought I would throw some wild speculation out there...

MG dose Colorado solid, by forcing the issue of offer sheet in order to get ROR to sign. This was obviously a cap friendly deal that Colorado would match or as happened pushed anther team on an offer, this gets ROR signed.

Reason... Well ROR could have been the peace that needed to drop in order for a Lou deal to go through.

Any takers?
The rumor was debuked by Gilman.

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03-01-2013, 12:13 AM
  #322
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The rumor was debuked by Gilman.
That dose make what I said look A LOT less plausible....

But Gilman can be slippery with Quotes. He did just yesterday say something along the lines of...
The Canucks were not looking at bringing up anyone from Chicago today. (Sorry if that's a miss quote but its close)

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03-01-2013, 12:16 AM
  #323
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That dose make what I said look A LOT less plausible....

But Gilman can be slippery with Quotes. He did just yesterday say something along the lines of...
The Canucks were not looking at bringing up anyone from Chicago today. (Sorry if that's a miss quote but its close)
Elliott Pap ‏@ElliottPap

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Canucks say they did not tender an offer sheet on Ryan O'Reilly. "Bad scoop," commented AGM Laurence Gilman.

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03-01-2013, 12:25 AM
  #324
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Elliott Pap ‏@ElliottPap
LALALALALALALALA, I will not listen

I'm going with, They just showed a lot of interest, enough to make the Flames up there offer a little

Seriously though, after what He said yesterday about Not calling anyone up and then the next day, Calling someone up. Makes me take all there quotes with skepticism.

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Old
03-01-2013, 11:31 AM
  #325
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Luo to Toronto for Nazem Kadri and Matt Frattin.

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