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Old
02-27-2013, 12:34 AM
  #226
TaLoN
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Empty netter... Yotes ice the game 4-2

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02-27-2013, 12:36 AM
  #227
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Game over. Hopefully the Yotes get some jet lag for thursday's game...they looked real good.

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02-27-2013, 08:35 AM
  #228
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Game over. Hopefully the Yotes get some jet lag for thursday's game...they looked real good.
Yeah but I mean who wins in a fight?

A coyote or a Pitbull

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Old
02-27-2013, 03:07 PM
  #229
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Great play by the local boy there.


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Old
02-27-2013, 05:12 PM
  #230
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BOOM

Declining value of Fenwick and Corsi with increased sample size

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The last several days I have been playing around a fair bit with team data and analyzing various metrics for their usefulness in predicting future outcomes and I have come across some interesting observations. Specifically, with more years of data, fenwick becomes significantly less important/valuable while goals and the percentages become more important/valuable.
He shows 87% correlation between goal differential and on-ice success.

Welcome to 2011

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I haven't delved into it much, but when I dipped my toe into it, the "Pythagorean Equation" [GF^2 / (GF^2 + GA^2)] had an 84.7% r-squared while looking at shot differential was 21.3%. This is going back to 07-08. I will go further when I've got the time.
And again

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...post lockout I've got 211 team seasons with 15,628 games played, 44,114 goals, and 467,707 shots.

It's just that not all shots are equal. If all systems and goalies were equal, you could look at shots. But they aren't.

I just don't understand how they don't look at whether or not the stat is a good predictor or not. They have theory after theory after theory that doesn't bear out.

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Old
02-27-2013, 05:16 PM
  #231
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BOOM

Declining value of Fenwick and Corsi with increased sample size



He shows 87% correlation between goal differential and on-ice success.

Welcome to 2011



And again



Wow, imagine that

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Old
02-27-2013, 05:35 PM
  #232
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It's obvious for each individual game (you can't win without scoring more goals) but over a full season, even if you blow out some opponents 8-1 and lose to others 5-4, it shakes out as predicted 85% of the time.

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Old
02-27-2013, 09:15 PM
  #233
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RE: Leafs' new goal song

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You guys can (and have) said whatever you want about my father's Leafs tenure, but this Harlem Shake thing wouldn't fly with him in charge.
http://twitter.com/BurkieYCP/status/306949062723252225

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Old
02-27-2013, 10:27 PM
  #234
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Suspension incoming?


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Old
02-27-2013, 10:29 PM
  #235
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Suspension incoming?

No, he got way more body than Hall did.

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Old
02-27-2013, 11:39 PM
  #236
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He led with the knee, but it looked like he got more body than knee.

No suspension IMO.

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Old
02-28-2013, 12:03 AM
  #237
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Yup, sounds like no suspension is coming.

Even the Caps coach said it was a clean hit.

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Old
02-28-2013, 12:29 AM
  #238
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Failed hipcheck to be certain.

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Old
02-28-2013, 12:56 AM
  #239
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Hey... You guys let me down.

I watched the Caps@Flyers game.

WHY DIDN'T YOU TELL ME THAT MCPHEE USED HIS AMNESTY BUYOUTS ON GREEN AND OVECHKIN??!


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Old
02-28-2013, 01:12 AM
  #240
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Roenick really lit into Ovechkin tonight. He said he should return the salary paid to him tonight.

I wonder what would happen if he lit into Heatley?

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02-28-2013, 01:14 AM
  #241
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Originally Posted by Northland Wild Man View Post
Roenick really lit into Ovechkin tonight. He said he should return the salary paid to him tonight.

I wonder what would happen if he lit into Heatley?
Milbury lit into Ovi worse tonight.

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Old
02-28-2013, 01:44 AM
  #242
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Hey... You guys let me down.

I watched the Caps@Flyers game.

WHY DIDN'T YOU TELL ME THAT MCPHEE USED HIS AMNESTY BUYOUTS ON GREEN AND OVECHKIN??!


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Old
02-28-2013, 04:33 PM
  #243
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There has been a lot of discussion about whether or not Corey Perry is going to re-sign with the Ducks.

I am wondering if the Wild would show much interest in him if he did hit the market.

My thoughts are: we could buyout Heatley, if Leopold would be willing, then throw that money at Perry.

A player like him is one of the few last pieces we're truly missing, and they don't come around often.

Then our kids could fill the remaining gaps, and not have too much pressure to produce immediately.

From some of the reading I have done, it sounds as if Perry is more of a quiet person, and he might not be overly interested in a market such as the Leafs or Montreal.

Thoughts?

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Old
02-28-2013, 04:43 PM
  #244
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Would I love to get Perry? Yes. Do I want another ridiculous contract when we already have four on our team (three if we buyout Heatley)? No.

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Old
02-28-2013, 05:33 PM
  #245
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So the flames are offer-sheeting O'Reilly.

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Old
02-28-2013, 05:34 PM
  #246
this providence
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So the flames are offer-sheeting O'Reilly.
Seems to me the Avs would be quick to match a 2 year deal...

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Old
02-28-2013, 05:37 PM
  #247
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Did he sign it? I would def match if I were the Avs.

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Old
02-28-2013, 05:39 PM
  #248
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Could see the Avs taking the compensation instead actually. Duchene and Stastny down the middle already, and a 1st and 3rd is pretty damn good for a player like O'Reilly. Top 10, maybe even top 5 pick in this year's draft? Yes please.

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Old
02-28-2013, 05:40 PM
  #249
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2 years for $10M ($3.5 and $6.5 million) - that's a **** you to the Avs. Even if they match then it's going to be the same thing next year with a 6.5 million contract.

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Old
02-28-2013, 05:44 PM
  #250
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I hope the Avs match. I really don't want them having two top five picks.

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