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2013 NHL Draft Thread II (6/30, 3PM EDT)

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Old
02-28-2013, 04:42 PM
  #26
CapnCornelius
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Originally Posted by Sore Loser View Post
Maybe.

But, I have faith in our new management, and we will have four picks in the top 35 of this draft. Until I'm proven wrong, we'll agree to disagree

Seth Jones recently moved into fourth overall for scoring by WHL defenders. His 47 points sitting behind only Spokane's Brenden Kichton (70pts), Seth's own teammate Troy Rutkowski (58), and Saskatoon's Darren Dietz (48). Of note, eligbles Shea Theodore (Seattle, 45pts), Ryan Pulock (Brandon, 43) and Josh Morrissey (Prince Albert, 43) sit 7th and tied 9th overall, respectively.

Just goes to show the quality of depth in this draft. While some of these guys come with various question marks, the level of talent is very good, and it shouldn't be hard to find some steals in the late first/early second round ... especially with Jarmo leading the way.
This goes back to probability. Recall last year the analysis wherein the Isles offered their whole draft to go #2 overall.

And look at Jarmo's own results the last time he had 3 picks in the first round. Yes, he'll get a much better first pick here, but going 4-for-4 with those first four picks is highly unlikely notwithstanding how deep you think the draft is (and I always question how deep it really is as I think every year we have someone telling us that year's draft is one of the deepester ever or some such nonsense).

I'm more focused on seeing us get two picks in the top ten and one in the top 2. That makes the chances of getting 2-3 guys who can be solid NHL contributors more likely and the chances of getting a star/superstar pretty good. I'd consider that a pretty good start to the rebuild and anything else would be an added bonus.

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02-28-2013, 06:13 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post

I'm more focused on seeing us get two picks in the top ten and one in the top 2. That makes the chances of getting 2-3 guys who can be solid NHL contributors more likely and the chances of getting a star/superstar pretty good. I'd consider that a pretty good start to the rebuild and anything else would be an added bonus.
This sounds both extremely realistic and also highly plausible. And that makes me smile.

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02-28-2013, 06:22 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
This goes back to probability. Recall last year the analysis wherein the Isles offered their whole draft to go #2 overall.

And look at Jarmo's own results the last time he had 3 picks in the first round. Yes, he'll get a much better first pick here, but going 4-for-4 with those first four picks is highly unlikely notwithstanding how deep you think the draft is (and I always question how deep it really is as I think every year we have someone telling us that year's draft is one of the deepester ever or some such nonsense).

I'm more focused on seeing us get two picks in the top ten and one in the top 2. That makes the chances of getting 2-3 guys who can be solid NHL contributors more likely and the chances of getting a star/superstar pretty good. I'd consider that a pretty good start to the rebuild and anything else would be an added bonus.
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Originally Posted by TBJF View Post
This sounds both extremely realistic and also highly plausible. And that makes me smile.

My exact thoughts.

Now Jarmo's true test will come in rounds 2-7. Draft some more Cam Atkinsons, or some darkhorses that slipped through the cracks. Its easy to draft sure things(most the time), real skill comes in the late rounds. Hopefully JK has an ace up his sleeve somewhere in europe, or maybe someone on Jokerit.


Edit: ok the more I think about the more I think we need to do whatever to get 2 top 10 picks. If we have the opportunity to get Mackinnon/Barkov/Drouin and Shinkaruk... Game over. I think shinkaruk is way underrated and should be a top 5 pick


Last edited by BoonesJenner: 03-01-2013 at 11:25 AM.
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03-02-2013, 01:04 AM
  #29
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Here's Button:

"You have to have the courage to be right," Button told NHL.com. "Knowing you could be wrong but having the courage to be right is the way to go. The majority of mistakes made at the draft are based on overestimating the bigger players and underestimating the smaller guys."

Can anyone corroborate this? Has any extensive analysis on this been done?

Also, can someone explain to me what is so special about Shinkaruk, and why he should be valued ahead of players like Mantha, Domi, Pulock, Lindholm and Monahan? I've seen only a minute of Shinkaruk and he looks like a good playmaker, but nothing top-end. Is he physical? Good defensively?

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03-02-2013, 01:49 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by major major View Post
Here's Button:

"You have to have the courage to be right," Button told NHL.com. "Knowing you could be wrong but having the courage to be right is the way to go. The majority of mistakes made at the draft are based on overestimating the bigger players and underestimating the smaller guys."

Can anyone corroborate this? Has any extensive analysis on this been done?

Also, can someone explain to me what is so special about Shinkaruk, and why he should be valued ahead of players like Mantha, Domi, Pulock, Lindholm and Monahan? I've seen only a minute of Shinkaruk and he looks like a good playmaker, but nothing top-end. Is he physical? Good defensively?
His intangibles are pretty amazing and he seems to have a really good hockey IQ. He practiced with Crosby and Duchene this past summer and he said he learned so much for what it means to really be a pro. His work ethic is pretty nuts to. First at the Rink, last one to leave. He stays late to work on his game, stick handling, passing, shooting, strength conditioning whatever it is, the kid is committed and has all the tools to make it. Seriously see this kid as Patty Kane 2.0

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03-02-2013, 02:04 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by slightlystewpid420 View Post
His intangibles are pretty amazing and he seems to have a really good hockey IQ. He practiced with Crosby and Duchene this past summer and he said he learned so much for what it means to really be a pro. His work ethic is pretty nuts to. First at the Rink, last one to leave. He stays late to work on his game, stick handling, passing, shooting, strength conditioning whatever it is, the kid is committed and has all the tools to make it. Seriously see this kid as Patty Kane 2.0
I love guys who work that hard, and it definitely bodes well. But I become incredulous when you mention Kane, because Kane had about double Shinkaruk's points in the same amount of games in his draft year.

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03-02-2013, 02:06 AM
  #32
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A lot of mock drafts have us taking Mackinnon or Drouin first overall. I want those guys because they suit team need, but I find it surprising to take them at #1. In the unlikely event we get the number one, I'd drop 1 or 2 spots or just take Jones, who I still see as #1.

The conventional wisdom on defencemen is that they have higher uncertainty (see Barker, E. Johnson, JJ, Hedman), so they maybe shouldn't go so high in the draft. But are people seeing that in Jones? When I look at Jones, I assume that he is going to be better than all the aforementioned defencemen. He is just too well-rounded and all around dominant. Feel free to correct me on this, I haven't followed drafts as closely until this year.

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03-02-2013, 02:08 AM
  #33
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I love guys who work that hard, and it definitely bodes well. But I become incredulous when you mention Kane, because Kane had about double Shinkaruk's points in the same amount of games in his draft year.
The team he is on is 2nd in the league with I think it was 11 or 12 rookies. Not an excuse but he went from playing with etem to no one and he really hasn't dropped off that much he doesn't have any real help. I'm on my phone so I can't paste it but in the Shinkaruk thread there's a really good interview someone posted.

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03-02-2013, 05:56 AM
  #34
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A lot of mock drafts have us taking Mackinnon or Drouin first overall. I want those guys because they suit team need, but I find it surprising to take them at #1. In the unlikely event we get the number one, I'd drop 1 or 2 spots or just take Jones, who I still see as #1.

The conventional wisdom on defencemen is that they have higher uncertainty (see Barker, E. Johnson, JJ, Hedman), so they maybe shouldn't go so high in the draft. But are people seeing that in Jones? When I look at Jones, I assume that he is going to be better than all the aforementioned defencemen. He is just too well-rounded and all around dominant. Feel free to correct me on this, I haven't followed drafts as closely until this year.
Hedman is coming along great. Looks like #1dman. And has improved every year.

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03-02-2013, 09:50 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by major major View Post
Here's Button:

"You have to have the courage to be right," Button told NHL.com. "Knowing you could be wrong but having the courage to be right is the way to go. The majority of mistakes made at the draft are based on overestimating the bigger players and underestimating the smaller guys."

Can anyone corroborate this? Has any extensive analysis on this been done?

Also, can someone explain to me what is so special about Shinkaruk, and why he should be valued ahead of players like Mantha, Domi, Pulock, Lindholm and Monahan? I've seen only a minute of Shinkaruk and he looks like a good playmaker, but nothing top-end. Is he physical? Good defensively?
Drafting for size in the top 2 rounds is a huge mistake, unless you feel that the prospects are equal in all other areas. We Oilers fans will never forget when Edmonton could have picked Parise, but did not like his size, so traded the pick to NJ, and we later drafted Pouliot...

Even last year, we went with Moroz when Collberg was sitting right there behind him, because they want size. I think they will regret that.

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03-02-2013, 02:12 PM
  #36
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Drafting for size in the top 2 rounds is a huge mistake, unless you feel that the prospects are equal in all other areas. We Oilers fans will never forget when Edmonton could have picked Parise, but did not like his size, so traded the pick to NJ, and we later drafted Pouliot...

Even last year, we went with Moroz when Collberg was sitting right there behind him, because they want size. I think they will regret that.
Yes, the old Hugh Jessiman theory ... I wonder if the Rangers are still happy with that pick?

I can speak for Hunter Shinkaruk a little bit, as I know exactly what he can bring. The most important thing to remember is that, yes, Patrick Kane scored a huge number more points than Shinkaruk did, however the Medicine Hat Tigers are on pace to score roughly 70-75 fewer goals than Kane's London Knights did in his draft year. The Knights that year also had a team that featured Sergei Kostitsyn, Sam Gagner, and a number of solid OHL veterans; a very successful team overall. The Tigers this year are really a bottom of the pack team that has played above its own level. I don't like to compare Shinkaruk to Patrick Kane as much as I like to compare him to Jordan Eberle. His offensive vision is right up there with some of the best in the business, and his work ethic is second to none. Eberle was overlooked by most teams in his draft year for many of the same reasons that Shinkaruk is being moved down lists.

Find a way to get MacKinnon and Shinkaruk at the draft, and watch how much quicker the rebuild goes.

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03-02-2013, 02:28 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Sore Loser View Post
Yes, the old Hugh Jessiman theory ... I wonder if the Rangers are still happy with that pick?

I can speak for Hunter Shinkaruk a little bit, as I know exactly what he can bring. The most important thing to remember is that, yes, Patrick Kane scored a huge number more points than Shinkaruk did, however the Medicine Hat Tigers are on pace to score roughly 70-75 fewer goals than Kane's London Knights did in his draft year. The Knights that year also had a team that featured Sergei Kostitsyn, Sam Gagner, and a number of solid OHL veterans; a very successful team overall. The Tigers this year are really a bottom of the pack team that has played above its own level. I don't like to compare Shinkaruk to Patrick Kane as much as I like to compare him to Jordan Eberle. His offensive vision is right up there with some of the best in the business, and his work ethic is second to none. Eberle was overlooked by most teams in his draft year for many of the same reasons that Shinkaruk is being moved down lists.

Find a way to get MacKinnon and Shinkaruk at the draft, and watch how much quicker the rebuild goes.
That would be an ideal draft for me. One question though is Hunter as quick and shifty as Kane?

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03-02-2013, 03:38 PM
  #38
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That would be an ideal draft for me. One question though is Hunter as quick and shifty as Kane?
He plays more of a speed game than Kane's side to side game. Again, I'm really not a fan of the Kane comparisons. I think it mostly stems from the fact that they are of similar stature and are both left handed.

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03-02-2013, 03:42 PM
  #39
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Besides, I think Shinkaruk is more of a Blues fan than a Hawks/Kane fan


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03-02-2013, 03:49 PM
  #40
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Sore Loser- when I look at lists of draft prospects it seems to me there is always a shortage of RW's. My imagination or is it true and if so is there a reason?

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03-02-2013, 04:32 PM
  #41
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Sore Loser- when I look at lists of draft prospects it seems to me there is always a shortage of RW's. My imagination or is it true and if so is there a reason?
I think more kids are listed as centers than actually play center. I also think that it's common for kids to be converted to RW later in their development, because it's the easiest position on the ice as far as defensive assignments/responsibilities. I guess a good comparison would be baseball - the best athletes at younger ages typically play the more difficult positions (in hockey, center; in baseball, shortstop or even pitcher); but as they progress and get older, are shifted to other spots on the ice/field.

One example I'll use is a guy who never made it to the NHL. This particular kid was one of the top all-around players in the WHL, led the league in faceoff percentage in his last year in the league, and had good size. As soon as he moved to the pros, he was shifted to left wing.

To be a center in the NHL - or even AHL - you have to be one of the best, in my opinion. It's the most difficult skating position on the ice, because you're responsible for everything from faceoffs, to offense, to being the first guy backchecking defensively.

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03-02-2013, 04:51 PM
  #42
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The reason there are more left handed shooting players, regardless of position, is that kids just beginning to play are taught to put their dominate or strong hand at the top of the stick. Right handed kids end up shooting left handed and vise versa.

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03-02-2013, 05:55 PM
  #43
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The reason there are more left handed shooting players, regardless of position, is that kids just beginning to play are taught to put their dominate or strong hand at the top of the stick. Right handed kids end up shooting left handed and vise versa.
This is getting off topic, but I thought I'd add that in my experience, parents don't always give much thought to the side when they are buying the first sticks for their kids. Americans are more likely to get right shot sticks, because of the influence of baseball and golf. Canadians are usually left shots and because of that influence Canadian baseball players and golfers are more likely to be lefties.

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03-02-2013, 05:56 PM
  #44
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The reason there are more left handed shooting players, regardless of position, is that kids just beginning to play are taught to put their dominate or strong hand at the top of the stick. Right handed kids end up shooting left handed and vise versa.
I think it's also natural for some guys to just shoot left ... I've even seen some left handed guys that shoot right. I had a friend growing up that wasn't ambidextrous at all, but found it far more natural to shoot left handed for some reason.

I'm right handed, and a right shot. I think a lot of it depends on comfort.

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03-02-2013, 05:59 PM
  #45
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Thanks for the info guys. Jax I've been thinking about your comment and its driving me crazy. I've never played but from baseball and golf it is backwards. I'm sure one day it will seem logical but until then I'll ponder.

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03-02-2013, 06:31 PM
  #46
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It is strange how people adapt to which way they will play hockey. I am left handed at writing and using utensils, but played hockey right handed which was more comfortable. I swing a golf club and baseball bat right handed too as well as throw.

Agree with the influence of parents having a right hander and assuming they will shoot right handed. Way back when I started, it was dominant hand on top.

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03-02-2013, 06:35 PM
  #47
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I'm new to being a draft junkie, so I could use some understanding on how birthdates affect player development. Mackinnon and Barkov are almost a year younger than Jones, with Drouin in between. Does this mean Mackinnon and Barkov will have an extra year of improvement available to them before reaching their primes? Has this expectation already been "priced in" by scouts?

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03-02-2013, 06:48 PM
  #48
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I'm new to being a draft junkie, so I could use some understanding on how birthdates affect player development. Mackinnon and Barkov are almost a year younger than Jones, with Drouin in between. Does this mean Mackinnon and Barkov will have an extra year of improvement available to them before reaching their primes? Has this expectation already been "priced in" by scouts?
I've always felt that the late birthday thing isn't a big deal, personally. Guys who have late birthdays have had an extra year to show their stuff in junior hockey, but really the development should be on about the same pace for all of them. You might get a guy to the NHL quicker if he has a late birthday because of this, but in the end, the development curve will even out.

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03-02-2013, 07:36 PM
  #49
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I will continue to change my position on who to draft as I read more and more about all the players. I will say that I feel with the information available and what's been talked about for over a year it seems that this truly is a deeper draft. Having 4 of the (likely) top 33 sounds better every day.

I continue to hope for McKinnon. Seems to me we are seeing the Tavares effect - Rated #1 for over a year and talked about for more than 2 years and now "slipping" after every part of the game is picked at.

McKinnon, Shinkaruk, Zadorov and Lazar would be amazing in my eyes. All depends on draft order of course and with Lazar catching fire he probably doesn't drop to the high 2nd round. I'm good with Nichushkin in the mid 1st and Petan or Wennberg later in the 1st....

There truly are several options for us but we all need to cheer for the Rags and Kings to lose!

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03-02-2013, 08:15 PM
  #50
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I will continue to change my position on who to draft as I read more and more about all the players. I will say that I feel with the information available and what's been talked about for over a year it seems that this truly is a deeper draft. Having 4 of the (likely) top 33 sounds better every day.

I continue to hope for McKinnon. Seems to me we are seeing the Tavares effect - Rated #1 for over a year and talked about for more than 2 years and now "slipping" after every part of the game is picked at.

McKinnon, Shinkaruk, Zadorov and Lazar would be amazing in my eyes. All depends on draft order of course and with Lazar catching fire he probably doesn't drop to the high 2nd round. I'm good with Nichushkin in the mid 1st and Petan or Wennberg later in the 1st....

There truly are several options for us but we all need to cheer for the Rags and Kings to lose!
I think this draft is still different. IMO Mackinnon is not as good as Tavares (pre-draft). Not a shot against him, I also don't think any of the 3 Oilers picks will be as good as Tavares. And on the other side, I like Jones a lot more as a prospect than I did Hedman. I would say Drouin = Duchene going in.

The Mackinnon/Jones debate could honestly be so close that it comes down to a positional pick. And this is one of those draft's that I am sure the team picking 2nd will be happy with what is left.

By the way, if any of you are wondering why I keep posting here, I live in Southern Ontario, and watched an Oilers game in Columbus about four years ago. I've also been the road fan in Toronto, Ottawa, Buffalo, Calgary, Vancouver and Pittsburgh, and you guys were by far the classiest fans. So I have an interest in seeing the team do well!

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