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Flyers interest in Byfuglien

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Old
02-28-2013, 12:00 PM
  #201
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Originally Posted by Sasso09 View Post
I don't consider Buff to be a "Top" defenseman, I see him as a #2, but top pairing. I would say Jack Johnson, which it took him AND a 1st Round pick to get Carter. Even then I value Johnson slightly more than Buff.

And that trade happened when Carter's value was at an all time low in CBJ
You are welcome to your opinion, but IMO, JJ didn't have the resume (besides being the 3rd overall pick) that Buff does.

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02-28-2013, 12:00 PM
  #202
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In what world does Buff have the same trade value that Carter and Richards had when they were traded from Philly.... I would have traded Buff In a heart beat if it brought me one of those players.

At this point I would say Voracek >= Buff trade value wise.
He seems to be a big part of that Jets team and a huge component whenever they are winning games. Carter and Richards on the other hand had played (and reportedly had off-ice confrontations with teamates and coaches) that lead to them being dealt. Right now for the Jets to deal him they need a lot more in return than a Voracek, realistically he's probably untouchable and nobody would be able to put togehter a package that would make the Jets move him.

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02-28-2013, 12:02 PM
  #203
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You are welcome to your opinion, but IMO, JJ didn't have the resume (besides being the 3rd overall pick) that Buff does.
If by resume you're looking strictly at stats then sure... But jack Johnson is worlds better defensively.. I guess it's preference.. I always prefer a defense first defenseman, IE I take Weber, petro and Doughty all before Karlsson.

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02-28-2013, 12:05 PM
  #204
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Originally Posted by Halibut View Post
He seems to be a big part of that Jets team and a huge component whenever they are winning games. Carter and Richards on the other hand had played (and reportedly had off-ice confrontations with teamates and coaches) that lead to them being dealt. Right now for the Jets to deal him they need a lot more in return than a Voracek, realistically he's probably untouchable and nobody would be able to put togehter a package that would make the Jets move him.
Fair enough, if that's the case then he won't be traded... However the Richards/Carter rumors were just that, there has been no official reports. Richards is the winningest player in NHL history, he's won at every level, memorial, Olympics, jr Olympics, Calder cup, Stanley cup... Only guy who compares is Bergeron. Carter also on cup, Calder, jr Olympics. Voracek for Buff is even value, but If you're saying it'll take an overpayment to get Buff, then I understand your logic... Again just an opinion.

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02-28-2013, 12:06 PM
  #205
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Originally Posted by Sasso09 View Post
I don't consider Buff to be a "Top" defenseman, I see him as a #2, but top pairing. I would say Jack Johnson, which it took him AND a 1st Round pick to get Carter. Even then I value Johnson slightly more than Buff.

And that trade happened when Carter's value was at an all time low in CBJ
I'm a Flyers fan who has said numerous times in this thread that Buff was being overvalued, but I think you're being REALLY unfair here.

You value Jack Johnson more than Byfuglien? On what basis? Every basic or advanced metric has Byfuglien ahead. Jack Johnson may very well be the worst OFD in his own zone in the entire NHL. Every single year he posts the worst +/- by far on his team. Not to mention the absurdly bad Corsis that he posts, the fact that his max goals in a season is 8, etc.

You're REALLY reaching even comparing Byfuglien and Johnson, let alone saying that Johnson is worth more than Byfuglien.

EDIT: Just read your follow up comments. If you think Jack Johnson is better in his own zone than Byfuglien, I don't think you've watched enough of the two respective players to comment.

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02-28-2013, 12:08 PM
  #206
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If Byfuglien is available I really hope that the Habs are in on it

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02-28-2013, 12:11 PM
  #207
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they need to finally start focusing on drafting legit D prospects instead of giving up more picks, more prospects we do not have, and players off our starting roster.

I am down with the direction of the offense and hopefully read reaches sniper status. I am loving the young guys.

DRAFT D! we need two solid picks in this next draft that will be able to play 3-4 years under a post rookie cap friendly contract before they get their Pay Day.

I have not checked the FA the next two years but they will have to sign someone.



all of this unless weber, OEL, yandle, or the Stl boys become available

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02-28-2013, 12:18 PM
  #208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WeekendAtBernies View Post
I'm a Flyers fan who has said numerous times in this thread that Buff was being overvalued, but I think you're being REALLY unfair here.

You value Jack Johnson more than Byfuglien? On what basis? Every basic or advanced metric has Byfuglien ahead. Jack Johnson may very well be the worst OFD in his own zone in the entire NHL. Every single year he posts the worst +/- by far on his team. Not to mention the absurdly bad Corsis that he posts, the fact that his max goals in a season is 8, etc.

You're REALLY reaching even comparing Byfuglien and Johnson, let alone saying that Johnson is worth more than Byfuglien.

EDIT: Just read your follow up comments. If you think Jack Johnson is better in his own zone than Byfuglien, I don't think you've watched enough of the two respective players to comment.
Well admittedly I watched Buff a ton more than JJ but there's no top pairing defenseman in the league who's worse in their own end than Buff was for Chicago. I highly doubt Buff is better defensively than JJ

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02-28-2013, 12:20 PM
  #209
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If Byfuglien is available I really hope that the Habs are in on it
Start with Beaulieu + Gallagher

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02-28-2013, 12:21 PM
  #210
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Start with Beaulieu + Gallagher
That's a very fair starting point

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02-28-2013, 12:34 PM
  #211
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Well admittedly I watched Buff a ton more than JJ but there's no top pairing defenseman in the league who's worse in their own end than Buff was for Chicago. I highly doubt Buff is better defensively than JJ
What are you even talking about?

In his last two seasons with Chicago (08-09, 09-10) Byfuglien spent the vast majority of his time playing wing.

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02-28-2013, 12:56 PM
  #212
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Originally Posted by Sasso09 View Post
Well admittedly I watched Buff a ton more than JJ but there's no top pairing defenseman in the league who's worse in their own end than Buff was for Chicago. I highly doubt Buff is better defensively than JJ
So you havent even seen buff at all since chicago and yet you are making such definitive statements about his play since then?

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02-28-2013, 05:21 PM
  #213
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Two things, I assure you if Byfuglien is available, the Kings are in on him hard (although they have no first).

Second, as a Kings fan, I can assure you that Jack Johnson is nowhere near as effective as Byfuglien. Johnson has all the physical tools and talent but just does not have the hockey IQ to be a defensemen in the NHL. I hope he brings it all together in the future but right now, they aren't even close to comparable.

Using that trade as a basis is semi-flawed though because the Carter situation in Columbus was detrimental to his value. Columbus was in a corner and had to let Carter go for less than his worth. I think, if needs matched up, a player with Carter's value before he was exiled from Philadelphia could go one for one with Byfuglien.

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02-28-2013, 08:32 PM
  #214
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Originally Posted by Sasso09 View Post
Well admittedly I watched Buff a ton more than JJ but there's no top pairing defenseman in the league who's worse in their own end than Buff was for Chicago. I highly doubt Buff is better defensively than JJ
I can't comment on how Buff was defensively in Chicago .....but since he has been in Winnipeg (quoted from a Garret post on our thread): "

Defensively Buff's not that bad...

Looking at last season:
Shots against: 145th (which puts him at about average)
Out-chancing the opponent: 29th (which puts him in the top tier)
RelCorsi (which takes away team affects by looking at how much better your team does out-chancing the opponent when you're on the ice vs when you're off the ice): 6th (which puts him in elite status)
He does this while facing tough competition... you can't be a defensive plug to get that...[/QUOTE]

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Old
03-01-2013, 12:53 AM
  #215
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http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/con...ed-share-video

We'll keep him.

/endthread

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03-01-2013, 12:57 AM
  #216
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Peckham, Fistric and 2014 2nd for Byfuglien.

Jets need depth, Oil need Byfuglien.

GET ER DONE.

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03-01-2013, 01:37 AM
  #217
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Originally Posted by Dr Good Vibes View Post
Peckham, Fistric and 2014 2nd for Byfuglien.

Jets need depth, Oil need Byfuglien.

GET ER DONE.
To get Buff, you'd have to trade one of Eberle, Hall, RNH or Yak.

And no...I'm not being ridiculous.

Buff is an excellent Defenseman, and is worth alot. To get quality, you need to give it. That's just life.

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03-01-2013, 01:48 AM
  #218
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Well admittedly I watched Buff a ton more than JJ but there's no top pairing defenseman in the league who's worse in their own end than Buff was for Chicago. I highly doubt Buff is better defensively than JJ
I've watched quite a few games (~8) of the Jets this year (own Bogo + Buff for fantasy) and he's good when he tries. What I noticed is he does let his partner do most of the heavy lifting in the defensive zone, but he's not bad by any means.

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03-01-2013, 01:53 AM
  #219
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Good Vibes View Post
Peckham, Fistric and 2014 2nd for Byfuglien.

Jets need depth, Oil need Byfuglien.

GET ER DONE.
Not even close, buff would look good on the oil (as a jets fan), but the jets would get much better offers then that

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03-01-2013, 02:06 AM
  #220
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Please do, we dont want him.

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03-01-2013, 04:15 AM
  #221
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I'll preface my post by saying I think this is one of those things that will not work out. I don't think that Jets are ready to give away a big minute D anytime soon especially with them only playing 4mins this season with all of their top3 D. I also think that the costs do not equal the value for either team, and so it wouldn't work for either team.

OK I'm going to try and throw some logic in this post because it seems to be quite lacking (and no offence, a lot of it by mods)...
Jets' fans do not believe that Byfuglien is DefensemanJesus, but he is being extraordinarily underrated here by some folks.

First let's take a look at the raw data:

Even Strength and PP Production
YEARPOSGPESTOI/60ESP/60ESGESAPPTOI/60PPP/60PPGPPASOG
2010 D 8118.27 1.01 12 17 3.81 3.89 8 16347
2011 D 6619.28 1.27 08 25 3.27 4.73 4 15223
Even Strength Underlying Numbers
YEARRelQoCOZSRelCorsiG/60A1/60P/60SAon/60
2010 0.389 55.6 20.7 0.41 0.28 1.01 27.8
2011 0.674 53.3 13.1 0.28 0.42 1.27 26.8

Somethings to note:

1) Byfuglien is a pretty top notch offensive force.
Looking at guys not facing sheltered minutes (for stat nerds that's a RelQoC >0), Byfuglien scored at the 5th fastest rate per a minute at even strength.
Looking at PP1 unit guys (so lets say >1.5 mins of PP TOI per game), Byfuglien scored at the 7th fastest rate per a minute.
Byfuglien was also one of 4 to be in the top 10 in both lists (they are Karlsson, Chara, Byfuglien, Bieksa).
Byfuglien is one of 12 defensemen to score at ES with at least 1 point every 60 mins, face non-sheltered minutes, and come out on top of the competition. They are: Karlsson, Byfuglien, Letang, Bieksa, Nikitin, Chara, Timonen, Boyle, Carle, Seabrook, Leddy, Mcdonagh. (Enstrom missed the list by 0.01 pt/60)

2) Byfuglien helps far more than he hurts.
Manny people like to point out at Byfuglien's negative plus/minus of indications that he hurts more than he helps and that he's poor defensively... This is actually wrong. Look how Byfuglien did with his 3 top D mates:
2011-12 Byfuglien with:
PartnerTOI CF% GF% +/-
Enstrom 724 0.558 0.522 +3
Oduya 210 0.524 0.571 +2
Stuart 159 0.489 0.211 -11
The list is pretty similar for all of his D partners, in that Stuart is the only negative D-man. Byfuglien isn't the only Jets' defensemen with the same pattern (Bogosian too), and that Stuart's TOI is severely negative with small TOI. (EDIT: For those of you who do not know Stuart, Stuart is your typical bottom pairing D: physical force and great intangibles, but the other teams coach wants to put his top guns out against him whenever he has last change)
In fact this pattern stays true all the way back to 2010-11 Atlanta days in how Byfuglien is actually a plus player when with Enstrom (and many others).

3) Byfuglien actually helps Enstrom as much as Enstrom helps Byfuglien,
I love Enstrom: calm, cool, collective and canny. The two have exceptional chemistry together and are better together than apart. Which is why I think that Byfuglien would actually fit in Philadelphia not too shabby, as I find Enstrom and Timonen have very similar games.
2010-13
PlayersTOIGF/20GA/20GF%CF%
Together 1688:07 0.887 0.870 50.5 52.5
Enstrom 655:43 0.702 0.915 43.4 48.1
Byfuglien 999:31 0.880 0.920 48.9 53.6
Interestingly enough, Byfuglien even keeps a positive Corsi without Enstrom. Don't forget that these numbers are in-front of Pavelec who over the last 3 seasons combined has been in bottom 15 for starter SV% (I believe he was just better than 15 in 2010-11 but too lazy to check).

4)(This part has already been quoted by someone else for me but,) Byfuglien isn't great but IS NOT BAD defensively.
Looking at last season:
*Shots against: 145th (which puts him at about average)
*Out-chancing the opponent: 29th (which puts him in the top tier)
*RelCorsi (which takes away team affects by looking at how much better your team does out-chancing the opponent when you're on the ice vs when you're off the ice): 6th (which puts him in elite status)
*He does this while facing tough competition, on a non-playoff team.
You can't be a defensive plug to get those results. Period.
Byfuglien rarely ever gets beat one-on-one, has a strong outlet pass, can carry the puck out, and can hit pretty hard (just ask Kovalchuk after yesterday). His problems mainly arises from positioning and defensive zone coverage, which (Edit: grammar) has a TEACHABLE solution.

Bonus Section, Misconceptions:
* Byfuglien isn't really a rover much at all anymore... Charlie Huddy has basically forced taught Byfuglien to pick his moments.
* Byfuglien isn't slow... in fact, he's really friggin' fast for his size.
* Byfuglien isn't a terrible defensemen... I hope I showed this above that it's his weakness but it actually isn't a huge one as people seem to like to think here.
* Byfuglien isn't old or peaking (yet)... Byfuglien has actually been improving both offensively and defensively, which makes sense when you think he's new to being fulltime D in the NHL.

He may not be a super elite-all-minutes-defensemen a la Weber or Chara, but he's definitely a solid #1 (sorry mod Chris Shafer but I think I just proved that he is a #1). You don't get results like those being a #3... ever.

The one real big concern is his size could spell out small shelf-life career-wise. He did come to camp this season healthier than the prior one, but is it a trend or a blip?


Last edited by garret9: 03-01-2013 at 02:08 PM. Reason: poor wording in one spot + info on Stuart
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Old
03-01-2013, 04:22 AM
  #222
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I'll preface my post by saying I think this is one of those things that will not work out. I don't think that Jets are ready to give away a big minute D anytime soon especially with them only playing 4mins this season with all of their top3 D. I also think that the costs do not equal the value for either team, and so it wouldn't work for either team.

OK I'm going to try and throw some logic in this post because it seems to be quite lacking (and no offence, a lot of it by mods)...
Jets' fans do not believe that Byfuglien is DefensemanJesus, but he is being extraordinarily underrated here by some folks.

First let's take a look at the raw data:

Even Strength and PP Production
YEARPOSGPESTOI/60ESP/60ESGESAPPTOI/60PPP/60PPGPPASOG
2010 D 8118.27 1.01 12 17 3.81 3.89 8 16347
2011 D 6619.28 1.27 08 25 3.27 4.73 4 15223
Even Strength Underlying Numbers
YEARRelQoCOZSRelCorsiG/60A1/60P/60SAon/60
2010 0.389 55.6 20.7 0.41 0.28 1.01 27.8
2011 0.674 53.3 13.1 0.28 0.42 1.27 26.8

Somethings to note:

1) Byfuglien is a pretty top notch offensive force.
Looking at guys not facing sheltered minutes (for stat nerds that's a RelQoC >0), Byfuglien scored at the 5th fastest rate per a minute at even strength.
Looking at PP1 unit guys (so lets say >1.5 mins of PP TOI per game), Byfuglien scored at the 7th fastest rate per a minute.
Byfuglien was also one of 4 to be in the top 10 in both lists (they are Karlsson, Chara, Byfuglien, Bieksa).
Byfuglien is one of 12 defensemen to score at ES with at least 1 point every 60 mins, face non-sheltered minutes, and come out on top of the competition. They are: Karlsson, Byfuglien, Letang, Bieksa, Nikitin, Chara, Timonen, Boyle, Carle, Seabrook, Leddy, Mcdonagh. (Enstrom missed the list by 0.01 pt/60)

2) Byfuglien helps far more than he hurts.
Manny people like to point out at Byfuglien's negative plus/minus of indications that he hurts more than he helps and that he's poor defensively... This is actually wrong. Look how Byfuglien did with his 3 top D mates:
2011-12 Byfuglien with:
PartnerTOI CF% GF% +/-
Enstrom 724 0.558 0.522 +3
Oduya 210 0.524 0.571 +2
Stuart 159 0.489 0.211 -11
The list is pretty similar for all of his D partners, in that Stuart is the only negative D-man. Byfuglien isn't the only Jets' defensemen with the same pattern (Bogosian too), and that Stuart's TOI is severely negative with small TOI.
In fact this pattern stays true all the way back to 2010-11 Atlanta days in how Byfuglien is actually a plus player when with Enstrom (and many others).

3) Byfuglien actually helps Enstrom as much as Enstrom helps Byfuglien,
I love Enstrom: calm, cool, collective and canny. The two have exceptional chemistry together and are better together than apart. Which is why I think that Byfuglien would actually fit in Philadelphia not too shabby, as I find Enstrom and Timonen have very similar games.
2010-13
PlayersTOIGF/20GA/20GF%CF%
Together 1688:07 0.887 0.870 50.5 52.5
Enstrom 655:43 0.702 0.915 43.4 48.1
Byfuglien 999:31 0.880 0.920 48.9 53.6
Interestingly enough, Byfuglien even keeps a positive Corsi without Enstrom. Don't forget that these numbers are in-front of Pavelec who over the last 3 seasons combined has been in bottom 15 for starter SV% (I believe he was just better than 15 in 2010-11 but too lazy to check).

4)(This part has already been quoted by someone else for me but,) Byfuglien isn't great but IS NOT BAD defensively.
Looking at last season:
*Shots against: 145th (which puts him at about average)
*Out-chancing the opponent: 29th (which puts him in the top tier)
*RelCorsi (which takes away team affects by looking at how much better your team does out-chancing the opponent when you're on the ice vs when you're off the ice): 6th (which puts him in elite status)
*He does this while facing tough competition, on a non-playoff team.
You can't be a defensive plug to get those results. Period.
Byfuglien rarely ever gets beat one-on-one, has a strong outlet pass, can carry the puck out, and can hit pretty hard (just ask Kovalchuk after yesterday). His problems mainly arises from positioning and defensive zone coverage, which is a TEACHABLE problem.

Bonus Section, Misconceptions:
* Byfuglien isn't really a rover much at all anymore... Charlie Huddy has basically forced taught Byfuglien to pick his moments.
* Byfuglien isn't slow... in fact, he's really friggin' fast for his size.
* Byfuglien isn't a terrible defensemen... I hope I showed this above that it's his weakness but it actually isn't a huge one as people seem to like to think here.
* Byfuglien is old and peaking... Byfuglien has actually been improving both offensively and defensively, which makes sense.

He may not be a super elite-all-minutes-defensemen a la Weber or Chara, but he's definitely a solid #1 (sorry mod Chris Shafer but I think I just proved that he is a #1). You don't get results like those being a #3... ever.

The one real big concern is his size could spell out small shelf-life career-wise. He did come to camp this season healthier than the prior one, but is it a trend or a blip?
Was waiting for this. Bravo!

Would have done it myself, but I am too lazy . Plus I would have been no where near as effective at proving that Buff is an elite top 3 offensive defenceman, and borderline top 10 overall.

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03-01-2013, 01:18 PM
  #223
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Wall of stats
Very well thought out post. Can I ask where you got all those statistics from?

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03-01-2013, 01:31 PM
  #224
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Great post garret9. We are very lucky to have your statistical skills on the Jets board.

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03-01-2013, 01:32 PM
  #225
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Yakupov + MPS + 1st 2013 + 2nd 2013 for Byfuglien and E. Kane

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