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Brian Burke is a Dinosaur

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Old
03-01-2013, 11:11 AM
  #26
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Originally Posted by Vipers31 View Post
No idea about the verification for the moneyball thing, but the other two aren't that hard to agree with to a fair degree.
Boston Red Sox used a version of moneyball to build their team that won the US Series

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03-01-2013, 11:12 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
To be fair, Burke led a team to a Cup not 20 years ago, but 5 years ago. He's justified in believing in his methods as they had success for him not all that long ago.

In his second quote, maybe he's trying to say that nobody ever won a championship purely with statistics, and that a measure of eyeballing and having an eye for talent is involved as well? I think hearing the entire discussion would provide some context, instead of just yanking a sentence out of what was probably a larger idea.
Nah. He is simply becoming as senile as the Clint Eastwood in Trouble With the Curve.

I've never seen a more biased and strawmaned movie in my life.

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03-01-2013, 11:13 AM
  #29
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if advanced statistics are that be all and end all

then they should win every year

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03-01-2013, 11:15 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
Boston Red Sox used a version of moneyball to build their team that won the US Series
I see what you did there, and got a good chuckle out of it. Bravo.

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03-01-2013, 11:16 AM
  #31
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if advanced statistics are that be all and end all

then they should win every year
This post shows exactly how little you understand about advanced statistics.

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03-01-2013, 11:17 AM
  #32
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I'm sorry but I agree with all those quotes, Brian Burke is a genius, and his quotes are funny as ****.

I love him, and will always hate MLSE for firing him.

The Moneyball quote I don't know enough about, never seen the movie, and, rarely watch baseball.

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03-01-2013, 11:17 AM
  #33
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Baseball is hockey

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03-01-2013, 11:22 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by TOML View Post
Um, wouldn't a lamppost still be useful for illumination as well as support, drunk or not?


TOML
Well, if you don't like your Tea, just pretend to sip it politely.


Edit: I don't believe what I said was very funny. Ashamed. I guess, I had to do it.


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Old
03-01-2013, 11:23 AM
  #35
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i fully agree with what he is saying

statistics are a part of the game but not all

and its true, no one ever a title with moneyball
You couldn't be more wrong

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Old
03-01-2013, 11:23 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Hennig View Post
I love him, and will always hate MLSE for firing him.
Yeah because firing him is working out so terribly for the Leafs this year.

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03-01-2013, 11:37 AM
  #37
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Yeah because firing him is working out so terribly for the Leafs this year.
What does this even mean? He built the team that is doing well.

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Old
03-01-2013, 11:39 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by tml145 View Post
all that team did was loot the Florida Marlins of all their good players

the Oakland A's were a moneyball team


You mean THESE Marlins?
The ones that won a World Series with a payroll in the bottom half of MLB?

You clearly have no clue what you're arguing here.

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03-01-2013, 11:43 AM
  #39
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all that team did was loot the Florida Marlins of all their good players

the Oakland A's were a moneyball team
The first move John Henry did when he bought the Sox was hire Billy Beane. http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/bos...ing-a-red-sox/

After Beane backed out, he went and hired the next best available Moneyball mind and that was Epstein.


Here's the best part

Quote:
In 2003, Bill James was hired by a former reader, John Henry, the new owner of the Boston Red Sox.

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Old
03-01-2013, 11:56 AM
  #40
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Burke knows his hockey. He's great at getting parts in place, even though he'll sometimes over trade to do it, but seems like he'll tell an owner to stuff it if he has to.

The proof is in the pudding. Look at the teams he's built. He's usually not around for the rewards but he's gotten major parts of some winning teams.

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03-01-2013, 11:58 AM
  #41
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Do people realize that 'moneyball' doesn't mean winning without spending? It means using advanced statistical analysis to find players that excel in traditionally (or currently) undervalued areas.

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03-01-2013, 12:09 PM
  #42
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stop calling Brian Burke names. You're going to hurt his feelings.

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Old
03-01-2013, 12:26 PM
  #43
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Statistics will never be as effective in hockey as they are in baseball. Burke's right. There are too many variables for them to be anything near an exact science.

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03-01-2013, 12:43 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Jagorim Jarg View Post
Statistics will never be as effective in hockey as they are in baseball. Burke's right. There are too many variables for them to be anything near an exact science.
Burke's not right, as most organizations use statistical analysis in their player evaluations.

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03-01-2013, 12:50 PM
  #45
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What does this even mean? He built the team that is doing well.
Yeah. I'm not a big fan of Burke, but you can't credit the Leafs current success to his dismissal. This is still the team he built. There's been no significant additions made to the Leafs through trade or free agency since Burke was canned.


Statistical analysis plays a role in proper player evaluations, but it is possible to attach too much importance to it.

Let's be honest - Any Red Sox World Series victory over the past decade or two has more to do with them having a bigger payroll than 95% of the rest of MLB than it has to do with anything else. Moneyball might help, but it's not the key reason why the Red Sox have enjoyed whatever recent success they have.

Show me a few teams with average payrolls that turned into championship teams through the Moneyball philosophy, and then it'll be impressive.

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03-01-2013, 01:00 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
Burke's not right, as most organizations use statistical analysis in their player evaluations.
Well, no organization wants to be left behind in case statistics can eventually provide some fruition. But look at hockey - every metric has so many caveats and every variable has ten variables. It's almost impossible. It moves too fast.

It's not completely useless, but it's not ever going to be reliably accurate to a significant degree.

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03-01-2013, 01:09 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Darth Joker View Post
Yeah. I'm not a big fan of Burke, but you can't credit the Leafs current success to his dismissal. This is still the team he built. There's been no significant additions made to the Leafs through trade or free agency since Burke was canned.


Statistical analysis plays a role in proper player evaluations, but it is possible to attach too much importance to it.

Let's be honest - Any Red Sox World Series victory over the past decade or two has more to do with them having a bigger payroll than 95% of the rest of MLB than it has to do with anything else. Moneyball might help, but it's not the key reason why the Red Sox have enjoyed whatever recent success they have.

Show me a few teams with average payrolls that turned into championship teams through the Moneyball philosophy, and then it'll be impressive.
As far as examples go. The 2003 Florida Marlins, 2002 Anaheim Angels finished just above middle of the pack in terms of payroll. The New England Patriots won 3 out of 4 Super Bowls from 2002-2006, all with a payroll in the lower half of the NFL.

The only difference between the Red Sox and a true Moneyball team is the fact that the Sox have the luxury of retaining the talent that they obtain via a Moneyball approach to building a team. Same thing with the Dallas Mavericks. They are still a Moneyball team, just because they have the luxury of a large payroll doesn't change that...


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Old
03-01-2013, 01:28 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by Darth Joker View Post
Show me a few teams with average payrolls that turned into championship teams through the Moneyball philosophy, and then it'll be impressive.
New England Patriots

The point the A's made with Moneyball or the Tampa Rays with the extra 2% was that there were and still are pretty big market inefficiencies. Some players are vastly undervalued by the old guard. Some strategies aren't used because some coaches are way too afraid of going against the grain and going through the criticism in case of a backlash. For instance, going for it more often on 4th downs. We all know what happened with Belichick when that happened against the Colts.

The idea of moneyball isn't that stats will make any team win every year. The idea is objective analysis. You may expand the concept to the use of sports psychology, biomechanics, financial analysis, topology, computer models the list goes on and on.

Saying that stats don't work because the A's never won a championship is like saying, the old fashioned way doesn't work because Milbury tried it with the Islanders and failed miserably.

That said, even if you built a terrific team with advanced stats like the A's did, the odds of winning a championship are still way low. A .600 team playing a .540 team in the playoffs with homefield advantage would win roughly 61% of the time. Then in the 2nd round, the odds of a .600 team beating a .580 team with home-field advantage are 57.1%. Then the odds of a .600 team beating another .580 team with home-field advantage are again 57.1%.

Through probabilities, we know that the odds of running the table are the odds of beating the 1st team times the odds of beating the 2nd team times the odds of beating the third team. In our example, that would be .61 * .571 * .571 = 19.9%

So, odds are really stacked against you to win a title in baseball to begin with.

What the A's did was building the best team they could with the budget they had.

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03-01-2013, 01:45 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by Mathletic View Post
The idea of moneyball isn't that stats will make any team win every year. The idea is objective analysis. You may expand the concept to the use of sports psychology, biomechanics, financial analysis, topology, computer models the list goes on and on.
Right. It's less about payroll and more about using the concepts above to identify a career .200 avg. hitter that hits .375 in smaller ballparks, obtaining said player at below market value and putting him in a smaller ballpark for 81 games a year and hopefully reaping the rewards when he becomes .300 hitter over a season. (extreme example I know...)

It just happened to be largely developed by a lower payroll team out of necessity to survive in a league with teams with payrolls 4-5 times greater. It's more about mentality and less aobut payroll.

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03-01-2013, 01:50 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagorim Jarg View Post
Well, no organization wants to be left behind in case statistics can eventually provide some fruition. But look at hockey - every metric has so many caveats and every variable has ten variables. It's almost impossible. It moves too fast.

It's not completely useless, but it's not ever going to be reliably accurate to a significant degree.
Hockey probably won't ever reach the point of baseball, however when the NHL begins to track puck touches, possession, passes completed, etc., we'll see a big revolution. That stuff will explain a lot of the game.

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