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Old
02-14-2013, 12:20 PM
  #126
Noreaster96
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Originally Posted by puckstopper55 View Post
can you be more specific as to what they are suggesting now? Are we talking inches, or feet?
Inches at the moment, but there is potential for the event to be even larger... 99.9% chance its nowhere near the size of Nemo, but it could be a decent sized storm...

This afternoon a bunch of models spit out a snowstorm of about ~6 inches... but then the Euro (the model that is pretty much a head above the rest) said "What storm?" with only light precip for us...

Its such a complex setup that ANY slight shift with any packet of energy could mean the difference between a foot and no snow...

The problem is that where this energy is coming from theres very little data available... as it moves closer to the coast and over land it will be better sampled and therefore more forecastable...

It's like a math problem... What is 5 + X? By the way, X is a number between 1 and 100... Can you get the right answer by guessing? Sure, but more often than not by randomly filling in numbers you're going to be wrong since you dont have enough data... thats why I want to wait till tonight to get some better info

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02-14-2013, 12:24 PM
  #127
JJmcD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
The GFS, and NAM are all computer models run by the National Center for Environmental Protection (NCEP)... the GFS and NAM (among others) can be found here...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/

NAM + GFS run at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z (UTC time)



ECMWF (Euro) among others can be found here..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html


There are other sites, but these are my favorite!
Wow! That's great, I never knew about these websites. It's nice to look at the models myself instead of relying on the weather forecasts. Thanks a million!

Also, I just wanted to say that weather sites, like Accuweather often are criticized for hype. Before this past snowstorm, they were predicting as much as 2 feet of snow for parts of long island, a foot plus in CT, ect...In other words a monster storm, and I was on board with saying they were hyping it. And it turned out to be worse than they said. So forecasts can be more or less than predicted, so it's nice to look at models for yourself. Thanks again.

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02-14-2013, 01:01 PM
  #128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
Inches at the moment, but there is potential for the event to be even larger... 99.9% chance its nowhere near the size of Nemo, but it could be a decent sized storm...

This afternoon a bunch of models spit out a snowstorm of about ~6 inches... but then the Euro (the model that is pretty much a head above the rest) said "What storm?" with only light precip for us...

Its such a complex setup that ANY slight shift with any packet of energy could mean the difference between a foot and no snow...

The problem is that where this energy is coming from theres very little data available... as it moves closer to the coast and over land it will be better sampled and therefore more forecastable...

It's like a math problem... What is 5 + X? By the way, X is a number between 1 and 100... Can you get the right answer by guessing? Sure, but more often than not by randomly filling in numbers you're going to be wrong since you dont have enough data... thats why I want to wait till tonight to get some better info
In this case, lets hope the Euro is right. If you have some free time, maybe you could send me a PM and explain which models I should be looking at from the millions that were on those two sites. I would appreciate it. Thanks

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02-14-2013, 01:10 PM
  #129
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Just follow this guy on twitter @RyanMaue for all your weather needs.

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Old
02-14-2013, 07:32 PM
  #130
puckstopper55
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NOAA is calling for about 4" sat night

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02-14-2013, 10:10 PM
  #131
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Eck... this is a cruddy situation to be in as a forecaster... the biggest issue with this setup is that its a highly anomalous situation... such large troughs dont dig into florida everyday and with the amount of energy rotating around the trough, anything can set off a huge storm... Due to this, there is what we call "model mayhem", or a difficulty of forecast models to properly handle a situation and thus spit out highly varying solutions, which is why ensemble forecasting is important... most of the models tonight showed a strong storm staying far enough away from the coast to spare the tri-state area much in the way of heavy precip...

The latest GFS, however, really amplifies the upper level trough, tilting it negatively much earlier than other models taking that storm and pulling it closer to the coast, bringing with it around 1" QPF to FAR eastern LI, which would be about 10 inches.

AT THIS POINT IN TIME this model lacks much in the way of support, and thus is an outlier and thus, in theory, less likely to happen... that being said, given the uncommon strength of this trough, it can't be discounted completely, as such a thing isnt impossible and in fact could trend even stronger for our area...

Stay tuned to your weather for any changes... and stay tuned to HFboards, I'll still be around if you find my forecasting acceptable :p

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02-15-2013, 11:14 AM
  #132
Bunk Moreland
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Just saw this pop up and it sounds exactly like you guys said, very unpredictable:



Quote:
A storm, that AccuWeather.com meteorologists have been monitoring for a week, will bring some snow to coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic and a major snowstorm to part of New England and Atlantic Canada this weekend.

This will be a last-minute developing storm situation, and there may be significant adjustments to the forecast moving into the first part of the weekend.

A preliminary period of snow will affect much of the I-95 mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians to start the weekend.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weathe...f-i-95/6153092

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02-16-2013, 11:02 AM
  #133
Bunk Moreland
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Any updates on what we are looking towards today?

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02-16-2013, 12:18 PM
  #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunk Moreland View Post
Any updates on what we are looking towards today?
This storm is skirting the coast. It won't be a huge storm, but you can expect anywhere from 3-10 inches depending on what happens. Looks like they are upping the totals for LI.

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02-16-2013, 01:06 PM
  #135
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IslesBeBack View Post
This storm is skirting the coast. It won't be a huge storm, but you can expect anywhere from 3-10 inches depending on what happens. Looks like they are upping the totals for LI.
The storm is skirting the coast but I HIGHLY doubt anywhere on the island gets close to 10 inches...

Probably 3 is the maximum if that, I'd go even lower than that

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02-17-2013, 09:26 PM
  #136
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I think we ended up with 1-2" in lake grove. Didn't even stick to the roads.

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02-17-2013, 10:07 PM
  #137
Bunk Moreland
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I was in levittown at millers for the game when I came out it was snowing pretty hard.. Got back to the south shore and there was nothing. Been extremely windy all day/night..

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03-01-2013, 10:40 AM
  #138
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I hate to be the bearer of more bad weather news but... Latest models are coming into some form of agreement with a powerful low pressure system affecting the coast... The latest GFS puts over 2" liquid equivalent precipitation... And is mostly rain verbatim for our area...

This would lead to extensive flooding from an already, what I would imagine, high water table from all of the rain and snowmelt we received recently...

In addition, if this were to verify winds would be gusting close to if not exceeding 60 mph at times

If this were to trend colder and be snow it's be even worse because chances are its be HEAVY, roof collapsing snow... And ALOT of it IF IT TURNS OUT COLDER

I'll keep an eye on it a well as the other mets here I'm sure

Just know its going to be impossible to start to nail down specific effects until 2-3 days out, but a major storm is looking possible at this point

And to make matters worse it looks like a LONG duration event, from Wednesday morning thru Friday morning attm, though that can change as well

Just wanted to give a heads up

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03-01-2013, 11:31 AM
  #139
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
I hate to be the bearer of more bad weather news but... Latest models are coming into some form of agreement with a powerful low pressure system affecting the coast... The latest GFS puts over 2" liquid equivalent precipitation... And is mostly rain verbatim for our area...

This would lead to extensive flooding from an already, what I would imagine, high water table from all of the rain and snowmelt we received recently...

In addition, if this were to verify winds would be gusting close to if not exceeding 60 mph at times

If this were to trend colder and be snow it's be even worse because chances are its be HEAVY, roof collapsing snow... And ALOT of it IF IT TURNS OUT COLDER

I'll keep an eye on it a well as the other mets here I'm sure

Just know its going to be impossible to start to nail down specific effects until 2-3 days out, but a major storm is looking possible at this point

And to make matters worse it looks like a LONG duration event, from Wednesday morning thru Friday morning attm, though that can change as well

Just wanted to give a heads up
OK I can verify the high water table as I just had all five, that's right I said five cesspools and the septic tank pumped and it was mostly groundwater. (Anybody want to buy a house?)

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03-01-2013, 02:40 PM
  #140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
I hate to be the bearer of more bad weather news but... Latest models are coming into some form of agreement with a powerful low pressure system affecting the coast... The latest GFS puts over 2" liquid equivalent precipitation... And is mostly rain verbatim for our area...

This would lead to extensive flooding from an already, what I would imagine, high water table from all of the rain and snowmelt we received recently...

In addition, if this were to verify winds would be gusting close to if not exceeding 60 mph at times

If this were to trend colder and be snow it's be even worse because chances are its be HEAVY, roof collapsing snow... And ALOT of it IF IT TURNS OUT COLDER

I'll keep an eye on it a well as the other mets here I'm sure

Just know its going to be impossible to start to nail down specific effects until 2-3 days out, but a major storm is looking possible at this point

And to make matters worse it looks like a LONG duration event, from Wednesday morning thru Friday morning attm, though that can change as well

Just wanted to give a heads up
Snow is not a concern for us for this storm

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03-01-2013, 02:53 PM
  #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wingnutks View Post
Snow is not a concern for us for this storm
I wouldn't say its not

I would say its highly unlikely

I've read the Upton WFD for the storm, and it makes sense given its a large cutoff to the south of LI with no real frigid airmass in place, 99.9% of the time that'll be a rainstorm for the Island...

However, the track is far from set in stone as seen from the 12Z guidance diverging it seems... All it would really take is confluence to be further west and stronger than progged over Canada and we'll have a more favorable high to our NNW rather than NE which would, in theory, help to keep winds out of a more northerly direction rather than easterly keeping us from "torching"... Also, if the northern stream gets involved that would help to introduce more "fresh" cold air into the system if I understand the whole setup correctly...

I can't see the Skew-T's for the GGEM, but for example 540's pretty much end up around NYC at the height of the storm (which would suggest rain for the Island if you were speaking climatologically, especially during March)... 850's, on the other hand, look like they never even touch the Island, indicating the lower levels are very warm, so if we could cool the lower levels it seems the Canadian would be a snowier soltion

The GFS, on the other hand, has less northern stream influence allowing temps to warm significantly from the surface up beyond 850, where the GFS brings above freezing 850's into the lower hudson valley...

The Euro is primarily just that S/W bowling ball low bringing heavy precip to the south missing us with most everything in terms of rain/snow

At least thats the way I'm seeing it at the moment... Granted, I could be way off... there could be a reason the Weather Service wouldn't take me

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03-03-2013, 10:06 PM
  #142
Noreaster96
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Most of the models for now keep most, if not all, of the precip to the south...

The very latest hot off the press GFS, on the other hand, brings heavy precip back into the area... Still too early to know for sure whats going to happen, but pretty much everything from heavy, wind swept precipitation to pretty much light showers/nothing is still on the table... By tomorrow night we should have better agreement with the guidance... Should...

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03-04-2013, 01:48 PM
  #143
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http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigw...eather+Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

CTZ007>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-051130-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-
EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
201 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE EXACT DETAILS OF HOW THIS STORM
WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR:

* SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.
* WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.
* MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
* HIGH SURF AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG THE OCEAN FACING
BEACHES AND TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.

THESE IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SEE THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

$$

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Old
03-04-2013, 02:54 PM
  #144
Bunk Moreland
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Oh damn it really? Still no way of knowing exactly what to expect right?

So in layman's terms what's the possibilities here snow rain flooding?

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03-04-2013, 05:01 PM
  #145
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Eyewitness News is calling for 2-5 inches for the area. Still very early though, numbers will probably change.

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03-04-2013, 09:03 PM
  #146
Noreaster96
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I'm feeling rather bullish in terms of snow for whatever reason... From what I see on the models, theres going to be a development of a CCB over the region which will bring HEAVY precipitation over our area... This should help to cool down the boundary layer over the island... coupled with the fact that models like the GFS tend to overdo BL temps, I think these two things combined with the timing of the heaviest precip being Wednesday Night into thursday morning should help things accumulate...

My initial forecast for central LI would be 4-8 inches of snow, more West less east and along the south shore... but the problem is

A) This could easily bust too high due to warmer than progged temps
B) Could bust too low if temps are colder

Regardless, the snow will be HEAVY, WET SNOW... please take caution when shoveling and whatnot as this can lead to injuries and heart attacks

IN ADDITION IT WILL BE VERY WINDY, with sustained winds between 20-30 mph with gusts up to if not exceeding 60 mph at times possibly leading to downed trees and power outages when combined with heavy wet snow...

Stay tuned to the NWS for updates on the storm

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03-05-2013, 11:26 AM
  #147
Bones45
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this morning, the local mets were calling for 1-3 for most of LI.

but as usual, the wobbling rain snow line will determine what actually happens.

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03-05-2013, 05:43 PM
  #148
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This is going to be a very difficult forecast! I think central and eastern LI could see as much as 8"... however it not going to be your typical 8". The first 2-3" might instantly melt and not accumulate. And the rest will pack way down.

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Old
03-05-2013, 09:17 PM
  #149
Noreaster96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wingnutks View Post
This is going to be a very difficult forecast! I think central and eastern LI could see as much as 8"... however it not going to be your typical 8". The first 2-3" might instantly melt and not accumulate. And the rest will pack way down.
You said you work for the weather service right? Are you up at Upton?


Last edited by Noreaster96: 03-05-2013 at 09:24 PM.
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03-05-2013, 09:32 PM
  #150
Bunk Moreland
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Please let it snow.. I would love for classes to be cancelled on Thursday or give me an excuse to skip them.

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