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Next 10 games may decide playoff fate

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Old
03-02-2013, 09:22 PM
  #26
Predatorbill
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If we fall back from the 8th spot by 8 points, I doubt we could make up that much up.

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Old
03-02-2013, 09:54 PM
  #27
Byrddog
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drwpreds View Post
You need to go back and read my post- I didn't say we would make the playoffs by playing .500 hockey the rest of the season. I said if we play .500 hockey over the next brutal 9 game stretch, we will be very much in contention for a playoff spot with a favorable final 18 game schedule. That's it.

Ok lets assume they play 500 over the next 9 games leaving 18 games in the season.

That would give them 31 points after 30 games. Historically it has taken 1.158 points per game to make the playoffs some years a little less but the past 4 years in the west thats been the mark. So in a 48 game season that equates to 55.6 points so 56 points should be close I have been using 57 points for a little fudge factor.

So after 30 games in your secenrio the team will need 26 points in 18 games or winning 13 of the 18 or winning .7222%. Currently there win% is .430. What gives you any indication that they can play at this level for even 5 games much less 18 games.

Yes the schedule is much more favorable for home teams and the Preds have this advantage in April. The team is not .500 at home in regulation this year. At some point one has to realize that the hill is just too steep. WHile mathmatically possible they could go into the last two week of the season needing to win all six to squeek in there has been nothing to show they have the ability to do this.

When you look at the April schedule there is a span also from the 6th thur the 19th with 5 home games 2 away where they may not get a point the only game I would feel good about in that group would be the Dallas game. Of course most are going to think thats crazy but it is more plausable than winning 5 of the 7. The defense and Pekka will pull some unexpected wions out as they always do but the forwards are just pitiful.

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Old
03-03-2013, 01:00 AM
  #28
Predatorbill
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Now in eighth place, LA in ninth with 3 games in hand

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Old
03-03-2013, 02:03 AM
  #29
NoNecksCurse
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if all games were even, you would have to assume we would be in 10th or worse. in another week, i assume we will be in 11th or worse

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Old
03-03-2013, 02:24 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
if all games were even, you would have to assume we would be in 10th or worse. in another week, i assume we will be in 11th or worse
Whoa. Theoretically, it could be even worse than that. I know it's unlikely, but if all the teams behind us were to win their games in hand, we would be 14th in the West. Only Columbus can't pass us right now.

And yet, because the bottom teams of the East are so bad, we wouldn't even have a top 7 pick.

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03-03-2013, 02:27 AM
  #31
NoNecksCurse
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Originally Posted by Paranoid Android View Post
Whoa. Theoretically, it could be even worse than that. I know it's unlikely, but if all the teams behind us were to win their games in hand, we would be 14th in the West. Only Columbus can't pass us right now.

And yet, because the bottom teams of the East are so bad, we wouldn't even have a top 7 pick.
hopefully the cellar dwellars in the east start racking up some points.. get so tired of the middling picks

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03-03-2013, 10:09 AM
  #32
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On the bright side, if we continue to free fall we could be sellers at the deadline. Finally we could get rid of all the garbage we're calling forwards, and truly start the rebuild that's been about 3 years in the making.

Rinne, Weber, Smith, Wilson, Bourque, Klein, Josi.


Everyone else, GTFO.

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Old
03-03-2013, 10:16 AM
  #33
gratefulpred
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Originally Posted by gopreds19 View Post
On the bright side, if we continue to free fall we could be sellers at the deadline. Finally we could get rid of all the garbage we're calling forwards, and truly start the rebuild that's been about 3 years in the making.

Rinne, Weber, Smith, Wilson, Bourque, Klein, Josi.


Everyone else, GTFO.
But would management be willing to think the dreaded R word with all those home dates and seats to fill in April?

For that matter do we really have any forwards who wouldn't be in the "Don't even ask" category that any team would give us something to make it worth our time?

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Old
03-03-2013, 10:22 AM
  #34
gopreds19
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Originally Posted by analogkid View Post
But would management be willing to think the dreaded R word with all those home dates and seats to fill in April?

For that matter do we really have any forwards who wouldn't be in the "Don't even ask" category that any team would give us something to make it worth our time?
We gave up a 1st for Gaustad. Maybe there's another GM out there who is as big an idiot as Poile.

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Old
03-03-2013, 11:32 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by gopreds19 View Post
We gave up a 1st for Gaustad. Maybe there's another GM out there who is as big an idiot as Poile.
nope, because then Poile re-signed him to a 4 year contract paying him 3.25/year ... for a FOURTH LINER

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Old
03-03-2013, 11:43 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
hopefully the cellar dwellars in the east start racking up some points.. get so tired of the middling picks
We could win the lottery which is the 1st pick this season.

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Old
03-08-2013, 03:34 PM
  #37
Cashville
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If you look at the remaining schedule and do the math, we're at a pretty important crossroads here. Starting tonight, ten of our next 15 are against very mediocre opponents:

EDM
MIN
@DAL
@VAN
@CGY
@EDM
@CBJ
CGY
CBJ
EDM
PHX
@COL
@CHI
COL
CBJ


We really need to win ~75% of the bolded games and go 50-50 on the other five. That would put us at roughly 43 points with 10 games to go. The playoff threshold will likely be 55-56 points. That means we need to take at least six of the last ten and I don't know if we can do it. Only two would I consider very winnable, DAL/STL/DET are 50-50 most likely, VAN probably 33%, and CHI three times in the last 10 is a freaking nightmare:

CHI
@CHI
STL
DAL
DET
VAN
@CHI
CGY
@DET
CBJ

I'm typically the optimist, but making the #8 spot is going to be very tough.

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Old
03-08-2013, 04:31 PM
  #38
drwpreds
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cashville View Post
We really need to win ~75% of the bolded games and go 50-50 on the other five. That would put us at roughly 43 points with 10 games to go. The playoff threshold will likely be 55-56 points. That means we need to take at least six of the last ten and I don't know if we can do it. Only two would I consider very winnable, DAL/STL/DET are 50-50 most likely, VAN probably 33%, and CHI three times in the last 10 is a freaking nightmare:

CHI
@CHI
STL
DAL
DET
VAN
@CHI
CGY
@DET
CBJ

I'm typically the optimist, but making the #8 spot is going to be very tough.
About the Chicago games- It will be interesting to see how things look by then- the way they are going they probably will have the best record wrapped up and on cruise control so who knows how those games will go

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Old
03-08-2013, 04:38 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drwpreds View Post
About the Chicago games- It will be interesting to see how things look by then- the way they are going they probably will have the best record wrapped up and on cruise control so who knows how those games will go
I agree. I think we lucked out big time by not playing them until the end. After their streak ends they may start seeing the losses quickly pile up.

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