Blues have gone 5-7-2 over the last 14 games and face the Kings, Coyotes, Sharks, and Ducks to round out this road trip. There is no question they need to play better to make the playoffs, but how much better? Assuming that the 8th seed will need around 56 pts (ratio of average # of pts 8th seed to make playoffs over last ten years, 58% of total points) the Blues need to get 32 out of the final 54 points available. Will the Blues be able to turn things around? My heart says yes, but the window is quickly closing as this team desperately needs points on this road trip and they won't be easy to get.
Will it be a battle? Yes. Will the Blues finish in fourth in the West? Doubtful. Will they make the playoffs? Likely.
Great article. Sabremetrics can provide some useful insight, and I agree with the point that a 48 game season allows for a greater fluctuation of results than an 82 game season. The Blues players need to embrace the fact that their season is in jeopardy and play with more urgency. Another losing streak at this point could easily put the playoffs out of reach because they would have to play far better than they are capable and hope for some luck.
Yeah, but I don't see them doing much in the playoffs. Win a round then out again (I thought they'd make it to the WCF and be close in that series eventually losing before the season.)
Great article. Sabremetrics can provide some useful insight, and I agree with the point that a 48 game season allows for a greater fluctuation of results than an 82 game season. The Blues players need to embrace the fact that their season is in jeopardy and play with more urgency. Another losing streak at this point could easily put the playoffs out of reach because they would have to play far better than they are capable and hope for some luck.
Last year really sold me on this way of looking at teams compared to one another early in the season.
Minnesota got off to that great start, and was leading the West for quite some time. But the sabremetricians were calling for them to fall back to the pack well before they did.
Another way to look is simply at goal differentials.
Everything is a bit out of whack this season though with the condensed schedule and the lack of training camp.
Don't mean to be negative either, but I think they will be out in the first round too. If they make it to the 2nd, it'll be barely and once to the 2nd it'll be a swift exit, much like last year.
This board is quite negative, some of you need to chill out
Yes, I do think they will make the playoffs.. the Blues are too good to not make the playoffs and have much more talent than most teams that will likely make the playoffs as well
Blues have gone 5-7-2 over the last 14 games and face the Kings, Coyotes, Sharks, and Ducks to round out this road trip. There is no question they need to play better to make the playoffs, but how much better? Assuming that the 8th seed will need around 56 pts (ratio of average # of pts 8th seed to make playoffs over last ten years, 58% of total points) the Blues need to get 32 out of the final 54 points available. Will the Blues be able to turn things around? My heart says yes, but the window is quickly closing as this team desperately needs points on this road trip and they won't be easy to get.
Guys. 6 of those losses were with Elliott starting and he gave up 24 goals. Chill out please.
I would rather peak in April then march. Last year we peaked early.
We will make the playoffs. At that point if Halak gets hot, we can go far. Its that simple. The regular season this year will be more meaningful than most in the fact that it is shortened. I think the last two weeks will have some pretty compelling games. Particularly Philadelphia, games against the Rangers, Devils, Bruins, Canes, Sens.
In the west the Sharks have LA twice, Phoenix twice and the Stars.
Just get in the playoffs and peak at the right time and everything will be OK
Sincerely,
LA Kings
spoken like true royalty.... I just asked that the players start getting ticked off 3 games before the end of the season and play like they mean it. Don't settle for good enough, but plan to be better and outplay, outperform, outshoot, and outscore. Kings did....They won! Footprint to follow.
I hope you and others here can use those facts and draw some conclusions with perspective. The Blues without Elliott stinking up the place in goal, have largely won at a rate they were expected to win. Their record over the last 10 games doesn't really appear as if the team is in a free fall which would necessitate an immediate trade to save the season. Why not see how the team continues playing in front of Halak for the next month, and then see what is out there at the Deadline when the Blues have plenty of "deadline currency."
And...The Blues have an entire scoring line out. The team is fine. Does it need some tweaks? Of course, but we all knew that. We're still looking at a team with a brilliant future. All of our aging pieces are realistically replaceable. Even when Backes's play drops with age, Berglund will be in his prime. The defense is young, aside from Jackman, and it's not like the prospect cupboard is empty. This team is two pieces away from being VERY good...Even when they're not playing as hard as they can. It'll give them the room to step it up come playoff time.
Only have two losses when Elliott isn't playing. Halak is now healthy, and Allen has earned a spot playing if he needs to be used. Stop being so negative.
