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ATD 2013 - Draft Thread V

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Old
03-07-2013, 02:14 AM
  #751
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I don't know if "bargain basement" is a fair way to describe Henrik Sedin. Guys like Rich MacLeish are bargain basement second line centers. Henrik is certainly low on the list of 2nd line centers in the league, but he's not out of place in either his line or draft position.
This is probably a semantic argument. McLeish is not a top 64 center, not even arguably. As such, I would not call him any kind of 2nd liner. Sedin arguably is, but if he is, he's very low on that list. I call that bargain basement. The other way to use the term, IMO, I'd if you grab a guy way later than other guys he isn't significantly worse than. Weight and Lecavalier are a couple of good examples.

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03-07-2013, 02:16 AM
  #752
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Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
Tell me how you weighted those figures and I can post the vsX versions to see what the differences are. I think you said it was top 10 seasons or am I making that up?

Also, I have a spreadsheet with vsX scores for everyone in 1927-2012. It took little time to throw together copying your (70s) sheet and then adding a simple column with the VsX score.
It was top-10, weighted as follows: 20 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10

All over 146

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03-07-2013, 02:18 AM
  #753
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
It was top-10, weighted as follows: 20 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10

All over 146
Thank you sir, I will get back to you on this.

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03-07-2013, 02:22 AM
  #754
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
This is probably a semantic argument. McLeish is not a top 64 center, not even arguably. As such, I would not call him any kind of 2nd liner. Sedin arguably is, but if he is, he's very low on that list. I call that bargain basement. The other way to use the term, IMO, I'd if you grab a guy way later than other guys he isn't significantly worse than. Weight and Lecavalier are a couple of good examples.
Yeah, this is what I was getting at. I don't think Sedin would be out of place on a second line, but someone like MacLeish would be.

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HC Donbass completes its coaching staff with Larry Robinson, assistant coach
As the one who introduced him to first the MLD, then the ATD, I never thought I'd see the day that he went this high, to be honest.

Edit: Ah, I've seen you've given Lemaire his assistant. I still think it's strange to see Robinson go this high among coaches, but I can see why you did it.


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03-07-2013, 02:23 AM
  #755
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Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
Tell me how you weighted those figures and I can post the vsX versions to see what the differences are. I think you said it was top 10 seasons or am I making that up?

Also, I have a spreadsheet with vsX scores for everyone in 1927-2012. It took little time to throw together copying your (70s) sheet and then adding a simple column with the VsX score.
Wow...nice work, BBS. If you want to use my (still somewhat undefined) methodology, order the list based on an unweighted sum of the top-7 seasons. I should probably have some weighting methodology which emphasizes peak a bit more than that, but I haven't come up with one yet. I don't like going down to ten seasons because I think that causes distortions against players who didn't have full ten seasons peaks, and ten seasons is a long peak.

But of course, the VsX results and my own method of evaluating their meaning are two separate things. My guess (without having seen the full results of my own work) is that the VsX system will be kinder to pre-expansion players and more balanced when dealing with 70's - 80's players, but that some guys like Henri Richard will obviously still need a rather large asterisk due to a variety of factors (in Richard's case, limited powerplay opportunities). Would you mind posting a ranking of the top centers based on VsX similar to the one seventies posted?

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03-07-2013, 02:29 AM
  #756
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Wow...nice work, BBS. If you want to use my (still somewhat undefined) methodology, order the list based on an unweighted sum of the top-7 seasons. I should probably have some weighting methodology which emphasizes peak a bit more than that, but I haven't come up with one yet. I don't like going down to ten seasons because I think that causes distortions against players who didn't have full ten seasons peaks, and ten seasons is a long peak.

But of course, the VsX results and my own method of evaluating their meaning are two separate things. My guess (without having seen the full results of my own work) is that the VsX system will be kinder to pre-expansion players and more balanced when dealing with 70's - 80's players, but that some guys like Henri Richard will obviously still need a rather large asterisk due to a variety of factors (in Richard's case, limited powerplay opportunities). Would you mind posting a ranking of the top centers based on VsX similar to the one seventies posted?
Yeah I won't be able to plow through all sixty tonight, but I can get a few done as it's just copy and pasting and plugging formulas in really. I'll just copy exactly what he's done for now so we have an apples to apples comparison.

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03-07-2013, 02:30 AM
  #757
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Although sedin has the unquestionably better Hart record, it seems the entire world agrees by now that he was actually 3rd at best that season, and we should be really careful not to stake too much of a case on the opinions of a fringe minority of journalists (the nearly meaningless 9th and 10th)
Eh...retroactive re-writing of awards finishes has always annoyed me. Should we also take away Ted Kennedy's Hart, and maybe Andy Bathgate's, as well? I also wouldn't say that top-10 Hart placements with as many votes as Henrik got in both of those two seasons are "nearly meaningless". I tend to throw out results based on only a couple of votes (or take them with a heavy grain of salt), but Henrik got more than just a couple of votes in both of those seasons.

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03-07-2013, 02:33 AM
  #758
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Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
Yeah I won't be able to plow through all sixty tonight, but I can get a few done as it's just copy and pasting and plugging formulas in really. I'll just copy exactly what he's done for now so we have an apples to apples comparison.
Ok...sounds good. I will add that one reason I dislike the ten season standard is that I feel it is overfriendly to post-expansion players relative to pre-expansion guys. Longevity is somewhat a factor of era (due to changes in training and medical practices), and in a smaller league, players tended to fade away faster because the competition for scoringline roles was fiercer. Going all the way down to top ten seasons introduces something of a modern bias, in my opinion.

But let's see an apples-to-apples comparison first, and then we can discuss the best way to actually evaluate what the numbers are telling us.

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03-07-2013, 02:33 AM
  #759
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Eh...retroactive re-writing of awards finishes has always annoyed me. Should we also take away Ted Kennedy's Hart, and maybe Andy Bathgate's, as well? I also wouldn't say that top-10 Hart placements with as many votes as Henrik got in both of those two seasons are "nearly meaningless". I tend to throw out results based on only a couple of votes (or take them with a heavy grain of salt), but Henrik got more than just a couple of votes in both of those seasons.
Well, did you think he was the actual mvp of the league or not? The voting is only useful as long as it passes smell tests.

As for the other years, you have to look at what those votes really say. Less than 1/5 of the voters thought he was a top5 player. Does that really count for much?

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03-07-2013, 02:37 AM
  #760
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Well, did you think he was the actual mvp of the league or not? The voting is only useful as long as it passes smell tests.
I think he was easily the best and most important player on what was probably the league's best regular-season team. Let's not forget that the Hart trophy is still an award for the most valuable player in the league, not the best forward, in spite of how it may often appear. I think there's a good argument that Henrik was, in fact, the league's most valuable player that year, yes.

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03-07-2013, 02:37 AM
  #761
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Ok...sounds good. I will add that one reason I dislike the ten season standard is that I feel it is overfriendly to post-expansion players relative to pre-expansion guys. Longevity is somewhat a factor of era (due to changes in training and medical practices), and in a smaller league, players tended to fade away faster because the competition for scoringline roles was fiercer. Going all the way down to top ten seasons introduces something of a modern bias, in my opinion.

But let's see an apples-to-apples comparison first, and then we can discuss the best way to actually evaluate what the numbers are telling us.
Agreed, I have the war years on the brain from doing a Rayner bio earlier and those centers will definitely be punished by 10 years. That said we're okay for this purpose.

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03-07-2013, 02:49 AM
  #762
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There's at least an argument. McKenney was good defensively, and compiling a load of higher percentage scores was tougher back then (a quick look at the list will tell you that)
I've yet to be convinced that McKenney was actually noteworthy defensively. And seeing as Sedin is hardly a liability defensively, McKenney would have to be an elite two-way player to make up that kind of gap.

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03-07-2013, 02:54 AM
  #763
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Wow...nice work, BBS. If you want to use my (still somewhat undefined) methodology, order the list based on an unweighted sum of the top-7 seasons. I should probably have some weighting methodology which emphasizes peak a bit more than that, but I haven't come up with one yet. I don't like going down to ten seasons because I think that causes distortions against players who didn't have full ten seasons peaks, and ten seasons is a long peak.

But of course, the VsX results and my own method of evaluating their meaning are two separate things. My guess (without having seen the full results of my own work) is that the VsX system will be kinder to pre-expansion players and more balanced when dealing with 70's - 80's players, but that some guys like Henri Richard will obviously still need a rather large asterisk due to a variety of factors (in Richard's case, limited powerplay opportunities). Would you mind posting a ranking of the top centers based on VsX similar to the one seventies posted?
I can't help but think, shouldn't it weigh against the top season? Or even completely omit it?

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03-07-2013, 02:59 AM
  #764
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Gretzky 147.7
Esposito 116.8
Lemieux 115.6
Mikita 104.7
Beliveau 104.5
Dionne 99.1
Cowley 96.1
Sakic 96.0
Morenz 94.6
Boucher 91.0

Thornton 90.4
Yzerman 90.1
Trottier 89.8
Lach 89.4
Stewart 88.6
apps 88.5
Oates 87.8
bentley 87.3
Messier 86.6
Ullman 85.9

Francis 85.7
Forsberg 85.3
Ratelle 85.0
barry 84.7
delvecchio 83.9
Stastny 83.2
Hawerchuk 83.2
Clarke 83.2
schmidt 82.7
richard 82.7

perreault 81.6
sittler 81.1
sundin 81.0
Savard 80.5
turgeon 80.1
gilmour 79.3
lindros 79.2
modano 79.1
fedorov 79.0
kennedy 78.1

roenick 78.0
nicholls 76.3
undrafted 75.9
b. richards 75.2
federko 75.1
lafontaine 74.6
weight 74.6
watson 73.9
sedin 73.7
weiland 73.6

lecavalier 73.3
h. smith 73.1
datsyuk 73.0
lemaire 71.7
keon 71.0
mckenney 70.9
brind'amour 70.2
goyette 70.1
nieuwendyk 67.7
b. smith 67.3

macleish 65.8
mahovlich 67.5
crosby 65.0
muller 60.8
malkin 58.7


Last edited by Rob Scuderi: 03-07-2013 at 05:37 PM.
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03-07-2013, 03:12 AM
  #765
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Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
I can't help but think, shouldn't it weigh against the top season? Or even completely omit it?
I'm not sure. I am completely open to suggestions, and I don't really have a problem with seventies' system, either, down to the top-7 seasons, at least. I'm not satisfied with an unweighted sum of the top-7 seasons, but I haven't yet come up with a better system.

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03-07-2013, 03:24 AM
  #766
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What I have so far, will edit in more until I get too tired.

Gretzky 147.7
Esposito 116.8
Lemieux 115.6
Mikita 104.7
Beliveau 104.5
Dionne 99.1
Cowley 96.1
Sakic 96.0
Morenz 94.6
Boucher 91.0

Thornton 90.4
Yzerman 90.1
Trottier 89.8
Lach 89.4
Stewart 88.6
Apps 88.5
Oates 87.8
Bentley 87.3
Messier 86.6
Ullman 85.9

Francis 85.7
Forsberg 85.3
Ratelle 85.0
Barry 84.7
Delvecchio 83.9
Stastny 83.2
Hawerchuk 83.2
Clarke 83.2
Schmidt 82.7
Richard 82.7

Perreault 81.6
Sittler 81.1
Sundin 81.0
Savard 80.5
Turgeon 80.1
Gilmour 79.3
Lindros 79.2
Fedorov 79.0
Kennedy 78.1
Roenick 78.0

Nicholls 76.3
undrafted 75.9
B. Richards 75.2
Federko 75.1
Lafontaine 74.6
Weight 74.6
Watson 73.9
Sedin 73.7
Weiland 73.6
Lecavalier 73.3

H. Smith 73.1
Datsyuk 73.0
Lemaire 71.7
Keon 71.0
McKenney 70.9
Brind'Amour 70.2
Goyette 70.1
Nieuwendyk 67.7
B. Smith 67.3
MacLeish 65.8

Mahovlich 67.5
Crosby 65.0
Muller 60.8
Malkin 58.7
Hmmm...I like the early results of my system. It seems to handle pre-expansion guys like Boucher, Stewart and Ullman in a way that more closely conforms to the established consensus on these players, while pushing 80's stars Stastny, Hawerchuk and Savard out of the top-20, which I think is also appropriate. I also like that it has Beliveau ahead of Dionne, and with a little gap, and that it has Gretzky relatively further ahead than that "other" system.

Nice work, BBS. Keep it up.

edit: cutting the analysis down to top-7 seasons would probably remedy the strangeness of seeing Joe Sakic's name ahead of Howie Morenz, which is about the only clunker I can see with the results so far, so long as one slaps a fat war years asterisk on Bill Cowley. Like I said, top-10 seasons is biased in favor of modern players with great scoring longevity, of whom Joe Sakic is pretty much the poster child. Cutting the analysis down to top-7 seasons would also pull up the numbers of guys like Max Bentley and Marty Barry, who both looked suspiciously low on seventies' list (not sure yet where they fall in my rating, but unless they show up very soon, they are too low, IMO). It's just not realistic to expect pre-expansion (and especially pre-war) guys to have had legitimate ten season peaks.

edit to the edit: ah...I see your updated list now. I dunno. Every GM will have to judge for himself, but I am already very happy with those results, and that is before we cut it down to seven seasons (ten seasons brutalizes not only pre-expansion guys, but also Crosby and Malkin...lol). Thanks for putting in the work here.


Last edited by Sturminator: 03-07-2013 at 04:04 AM.
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03-07-2013, 03:58 AM
  #767
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Hmmm...I like the early results of my system. It seems to handle pre-expansion guys like Boucher, Stewart and Ullman in a way that more closely conforms to the established consensus on these players, while pushing 80's stars Stastny, Hawerchuk and Savard out of the top-20, which I think is also appropriate. I also like that it has Beliveau ahead of Dionne, and with a little gap, and that it has Gretzky relatively further ahead than that "other" system.

Nice work, BBS. Keep it up.

edit: cutting the analysis down to top-7 seasons would probably remedy the strangeness of seeing Joe Sakic's name ahead of Howie Morenz, which is about the only clunker I can see with the results so far, so long as one slaps a fat war years asterisk on Bill Cowley. Like I said, top-10 seasons is biased in favor of modern players with great scoring longevity, of whom Joe Sakic is pretty much the poster child. Cutting the analysis down to top-7 seasons would also pull up the numbers of guys like Max Bentley and Marty Barry, who both looked suspiciously low on seventies' list (not sure yet where they fall in my rating, but unless they show up very soon, they are too low, IMO). It's just not realistic to expect pre-expansion (and especially pre-war) guys to have had legitimate ten season peaks.
I think seeing Ron Francis' name over Peter Forsberg's is another clunker, and another one that will likely be remedied by limiting it to best 7 seasons. And as fun as it is to see Esposito over Lemieux, I imagine a best 7 will put Mario back on top.

This way does seem to handle pre-expansion players better than the numbers seventieslord posted though.


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03-07-2013, 04:02 AM
  #768
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Hmmm...I like the early results of my system. It seems to handle pre-expansion guys like Boucher, Stewart and Ullman in a way that more closely conforms to the established consensus on these players, while pushing 80's stars Stastny, Hawerchuk and Savard out of the top-20, which I think is also appropriate. I also like that it has Beliveau ahead of Dionne, and with a little gap, and that it has Gretzky relatively further ahead than that "other" system.

Nice work, BBS. Keep it up.

edit: cutting the analysis down to top-7 seasons would probably remedy the strangeness of seeing Joe Sakic's name ahead of Howie Morenz, which is about the only clunker I can see with the results so far, so long as one slaps a fat war years asterisk on Bill Cowley. Like I said, top-10 seasons is biased in favor of modern players with great scoring longevity, of whom Joe Sakic is pretty much the poster child. Cutting the analysis down to top-7 seasons would also pull up the numbers of guys like Max Bentley and Marty Barry, who both looked suspiciously low on seventies' list (not sure yet where they fall in my rating, but unless they show up very soon, they are too low, IMO). It's just not realistic to expect pre-expansion (and especially pre-war) guys to have had legitimate ten season peaks.
Have them all now, it seems to really have a good handle on the pre-expansion stars.

Starting with only the 1926-27 season affects Morenz in another way too. I'd like to see this list with a shorter set of years to get a more prime on prime comparison, which would favor the earliest NHLers and Crosby and Malkin.

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I think seeing Ron Francis' name over Peter Forsberg's is another clunker, and another one that will likely be remedied by limited it to best 7 seasons.

This way does seem to handle pre-expansion players better than the numbers seventieslord posted though.
With it being less a point, a shorter comparison would definitely push Forsberg ahead as he should be. 10 years is really going to be flattering to Francis

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03-07-2013, 04:08 AM
  #769
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Starting with only the 1926-27 season affects Morenz in another way too.
If you want his earlier percentages, here they are: 93(1925), 67(1924), 60(1926)

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03-07-2013, 04:10 AM
  #770
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If you want his earlier percentages, here they are: 93(1925), 67(1924), 60(1926)
Thanks, they put Morenz up at a score of 99.2

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03-07-2013, 04:17 AM
  #771
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I think seeing Ron Francis' name over Peter Forsberg's is another clunker, and another one that will likely be remedied by limiting it to best 7 seasons. And as fun as it is to see Esposito over Lemieux, I imagine a best 7 will put Mario back on top.

This way does seem to handle pre-expansion players better than the numbers seventieslord posted though.
Agree on all points.

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03-07-2013, 05:28 AM
  #772
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The Eskimos picks, Jan Erixon, LW


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03-07-2013, 05:51 AM
  #773
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...As the one who introduced him to first the MLD, then the ATD, I never thought I'd see the day that he went this high, to be honest. Edit: Ah, I've seen you've given Lemaire his assistant. I still think it's strange to see Robinson go this high among coaches, but I can see why you did it.
I think taking his #6 dman would have been a better value.

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03-07-2013, 05:55 AM
  #774
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The Eskimos picks, Jan Erixon, LW
Good luck. I took him 100 picks lower last year to fill out my checking line and the way the board reacted was just plain ugly.

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03-07-2013, 06:19 AM
  #775
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Good luck. I took him 100 picks lower last year to fill out my checking line and the way the board reacted was just plain ugly.
Yea, for some reason people dont like a guy who were one of NHLs best defensive player for 10 years mainly because he had no offense and didnt get that much selke recognition (I know he was a finalist once).

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