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How many points will it take to make the playoffs?

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Old
03-06-2013, 12:17 PM
  #51
HansH
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After games of 3/5/13:

53 points remains the target to safely get into the playoffs. That would require a projected record of 13-13-1 (a percentage of .500). The Kings are still on pace for a 4th/5th tie with the Sharks (59 points each).

The record to win the Pacific projects out to 25-2.

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03-06-2013, 07:05 PM
  #52
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I love the fact that we are in a position to not have to go like 20-12 to make the playoffs like we have in the past.

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03-06-2013, 07:19 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
After games of 3/5/13:

53 points remains the target to safely get into the playoffs. That would require a projected record of 13-13-1 (a percentage of .500). The Kings are still on pace for a 4th/5th tie with the Sharks (59 points each).

The record to win the Pacific projects out to 25-2.
How many head to head games do the Kings have against the Ducks? Those will be the biggest games if the Kings want to win the division.

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Old
03-06-2013, 07:25 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by lumbergh View Post
How many head to head games do the Kings have against the Ducks? Those will be the biggest games if the Kings want to win the division.
Two is all.

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Old
03-07-2013, 12:14 PM
  #55
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After games of 3/6/13:

No change in the record to make the playoffs (13-13-1).

Record to take the Pacific Division is now 25-1-1.


Last edited by HansH: 03-08-2013 at 10:08 AM. Reason: Silly mistake in the date - thx to kingsfan for catching it!
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03-07-2013, 09:35 PM
  #56
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After games of 3/7/13...
Are you a future reader? Today is 3/7/13...

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Old
03-07-2013, 10:29 PM
  #57
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Are you a future reader? Today is 3/7/13...
Don't say that out loud, someone will make a tv show.

HansH, the puck whisperer......

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Old
03-08-2013, 10:09 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by kingsfan View Post
Are you a future reader? Today is 3/7/13...
D'oh!!! *headdesk* I go to the box and I feel shame.

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Old
03-08-2013, 10:14 AM
  #59
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After games of 3/7/13 (for _real_ this time):

The target for 8th place remains 53 points, a record of 13-12-1 (a percentage of .519).

The target to win the division is 77 points, needing a record of 25-0-1 (a percentage of .981).

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Old
03-08-2013, 10:25 AM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
After games of 3/7/13 (for _real_ this time):

The target for 8th place remains 53 points, a record of 13-12-1 (a percentage of .519).

The target to win the division is 77 points, needing a record of 25-0-1 (a percentage of .981).
Aim high, I always say!

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Old
03-08-2013, 10:45 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
After games of 3/7/13 (for _real_ this time):

The target for 8th place remains 53 points, a record of 13-12-1 (a percentage of .519).

The target to win the division is 77 points, needing a record of 25-0-1 (a percentage of .981).
How are you calculating these numbers?

According to sports club stats, 52pts has a 47.3% chance of making playoffs, 53pts has a 73.6% chance of making playoffs and 54pts has a 90.8% chance of making playoffs, 57 points is required for 100%. But for the division win, 68pts gives them a 56% chance and it keeps rising. 77 points gives a 99% chance.

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Old
03-08-2013, 11:04 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
How are you calculating these numbers?
A much simpler algorithm than sportsclubs. I'm taking the current record of all teams for their points percentage, then multiplying that by 96 (48 games times 2 points per game) to get their projected points. Then I'm looking at the standings of those projected points and seeing where the playoff cutoff comes. Right now, Minnesota projects to 9th place with 52 points, so 53 points or more (by teams who are currently in playoff projection position) would keep the Kings in the playoffs. For a team that is not currently in projected playoff position, they would need to get enough points to knock out the projected 8th place team (right now, a tie between Dallas and St. Louis at 54 points each), so Phoenix or Minnesota would need to surge ahead to 55 points to knock one of them out.

Anaheim is projected to 76 points by this method, so 77 points would give the Kings the Pacific Division.

I'm sure there's a lot more math and modeling and specifics of the upcoming schedule and games that goes into the sportsclub models you mentioned -- I'm just going quick and dirty.

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03-08-2013, 11:08 AM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
A much simpler algorithm than sportsclubs. I'm taking the current record of all teams for their points percentage, then multiplying that by 96 (48 games times 2 points per game) to get their projected points. Then I'm looking at the standings of those projected points and seeing where the playoff cutoff comes. Right now, Minnesota projects to 9th place with 52 points, so 53 points or more (by teams who are currently in playoff projection position) would keep the Kings in the playoffs. For a team that is not currently in projected playoff position, they would need to get enough points to knock out the projected 8th place team (right now, a tie between Dallas and St. Louis at 54 points each), so Phoenix or Minnesota would need to surge ahead to 55 points to knock one of them out.

Anaheim is projected to 76 points by this method, so 77 points would give the Kings the Pacific Division.

I'm sure there's a lot more math and modeling and specifics of the upcoming schedule and games that goes into the sportsclub models you mentioned -- I'm just going quick and dirty.
Ah ok, cool. Was just curious.

I have no doubt that Anaheim will not have nearly as good a 2nd half as their first, so I think the division will be taken with a mich lower record than that, IMO...

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03-10-2013, 04:18 AM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
I have no doubt that Anaheim will not have nearly as good a 2nd half as their first, so I think the division will be taken with a mich lower record than that, IMO...
I agree that it is also likely that whoever wins the Pacific will have fewer than 77 points -- thus the difference between "projection" and "prediction"

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03-10-2013, 04:20 AM
  #65
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After games of 3/9/13:

Points to make the playoffs remain projected at 53, giving a record needed of 12-12-1 to get in (current pace projects out to 58 points, for those who were curious).

Anaheim's win last night made taking the division tougher - 78 points are projected to do that, meaning a record of *drumroll* 25-0.

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03-13-2013, 11:51 PM
  #66
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After games of 3/13/13:

53 points still is the target for 8th without tiebreakers, translating to a record of 11-11-1 (.500 percentage) needed by the Kings.

The target for the Pacific Division is 80 points, requiring the Kings to go 25-(-2) in their remaining 23 games. (Yes, I'm being a wiseacre -- but until Anaheim comes back to Earth, the Kings could win out and STILL lose the division by three points.)

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03-14-2013, 02:53 AM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
After games of 3/13/13:

53 points still is the target for 8th without tiebreakers, translating to a record of 11-11-1 (.500 percentage) needed by the Kings.

The target for the Pacific Division is 80 points, requiring the Kings to go 25-(-2) in their remaining 23 games. (Yes, I'm being a wiseacre -- but until Anaheim comes back to Earth, the Kings could win out and STILL lose the division by three points.)
Wouldn't that be something?

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Old
03-16-2013, 12:19 AM
  #68
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After games of 3/15/13:

Target for 8th remains 53 points, which translates to a record of 11-10-1 (a percentage of .523)

Don't ask about what it will take to win the Pacific. Just don't.

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03-16-2013, 12:45 AM
  #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
After games of 3/15/13:

Target for 8th remains 53 points, which translates to a record of 11-10-1 (a percentage of .523)

Don't ask about what it will take to win the Pacific. Just don't.
What will it take to win the Pacific?

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Old
03-19-2013, 01:20 AM
  #70
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After games of 3/18/13:

It's gotten even easier. The target for 8th has slid again, back to 51 points. That combined with tonight's win means the Kings only need to go 8-11-1 to get in (a percentage of .425).

Still SIX points out of even TALKING about catching Anaheim for the division.

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03-19-2013, 01:26 AM
  #71
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Its threads and effort like this that make us the best fan base in the league.

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03-20-2013, 06:05 PM
  #72
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Its threads and effort like this that make us the best fan base in the league.
I agree!! So many knowledgeable and astute fans!

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Old
03-20-2013, 07:11 PM
  #73
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From sportsclubstats as of last night:

Los Angeles Kings Playoff Chances
Beat Phoenix 3-2, playoff odds up 1.4 to 98%
36 points 17 10-2

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Old
03-21-2013, 12:12 AM
  #74
HansH
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The projections got easier after tonight's games (3/20/13):

There's a logjam at projected 9th, but 49 points is enough to stay clear of it. That translates to 6-12-1 in the remaining 19 games. So that's good.

Still no stopping Anaheim, however.

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Old
03-21-2013, 01:01 AM
  #75
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Quote:
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Still no stopping Anaheim, however.
yeah forget about catching the Sucks. need to hang on to the 4th spot....

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