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ATD 2013 - Draft Thread V

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Old
03-08-2013, 11:04 PM
  #926
overpass
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
I'll resist temptation to start a ****storm, and fill a need instead, selecting C/LW Gregg Sheppard, who killed a lot of penalties for some good teams(and some not so good), and was a pretty good ES scorer.
I just have to say the last 100+ picks or so in this draft have been really good IMO. Every time I start looking down last years draft board and thinking I want to take a guy later, there he goes. Sheppard is just the latest example.

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03-08-2013, 11:13 PM
  #927
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Accepting offers for upcoming pick #555...PM me.

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Old
03-08-2013, 11:30 PM
  #928
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Milt Schmidt dropped the puck last night at the Garden, glad to see him get a standing O.

The Fireworks are very pleased to select elite back up G Rogie Vachon

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Old
03-09-2013, 12:07 AM
  #929
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Thanks for posting those. I had the stats but it really helps to have quotes like that to put some meat on the bones of a player profile.

I've always thought that big players tend to be underrated by fans because they don't look like they're trying compared to small players, but often they are able to accomplish more. Effectively occupying the right space can be very valuable.

Stackhouse's coaches must have thought he was doing something right if they kept rolling him out for big minutes over a decade.
There's actually a perfect modern comparable to this guy, just less offensive and more defensive.

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03-09-2013, 12:46 AM
  #930
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
More on this... Vancouver was tied for 5th in the NHL with 103 points, just two more than Pittsburgh and 18 fewer than Washington (who was probably the league's best regular season team). So if the case for Henrik is "ok, maybe he wasn't actually the best, but he was the best player on the best team" falls apart if his team wasn't actually the best, and was barely better than the team a clearly superior player led. Even if that was a legit case, what we really care about was who was the best, isn't it? Not just who was more valuable on account of the other personnel on the team.
Washington as a team and Ovechkin as an individual both got fat on the terrible Southwest division that year, and then, big surprise, crashed out in the 1st round against the 8th seeded Habs. They were terribly overrated by their regular season record, and everybody knew it. Out west, San Jose had the best regular season record, but the Canucks were the better team. The main difference between them was that the Sharks got a lot of points from overtime losses. Chicago was probably the best regular season (and overall) team that year, but the Hawks had no viable Hart candidates. You act like Henrik's Hart was such a terrible injustice, but it just wasn't. He was the best player on one of the elite teams that wasn't a total mirage, and he won the Art Ross. There have been far more questionable awards handed out than that one, but here we are talking about Henrik Sedin. Nitpicking his Hart is just another way of dinging modern players with respect to oldies about whom we don't have enough specific information to question the voters.

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As for the 9th and 10th, in which he was on 18% and 7% of voters put him on their ballots at all, isn't considering this significant just as problematic as the problems TDMM described regarding the THN list? The THN top 50 list ... was expanded to a top 100 in 1998 based off the top 50 lists that had already been submitted, which is terrible methodology and effectively guarantees that nobody in the 51-100 range was on the majority of lists
The main problem with the THN list is that it was horrible, not that some of the players in the 51-100 range were only on a few ballots. You do realize that the level of exclusivity you seem to want here would preclude us from looking at any awards voting beyond about the top-5, right? Is 18% of the ballots really not good enough for you? Henrik got four top-3 votes in both of the seasons in question. I think that's enough to be considered significant, yes. You're evidently suggesting we throw out a lot of data, which I think would be foolish.

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03-09-2013, 01:19 AM
  #931
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Washington as a team and Ovechkin as an individual both got fat on the terrible Southwest division that year, and then, big surprise, crashed out in the 1st round against the 8th seeded Habs. They were terribly overrated by their regular season record, and everybody knew it.
They got fatter against the southeast, but their point% of .698 in games against the other 24 teams, was still good for 1st overall.

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Out west, San Jose had the best regular season record, but the Canucks were the better team. The main difference between them was that the Sharks got a lot of points from overtime losses. Chicago was probably the best regular season (and overall) team that year, but the Hawks had no viable Hart candidates. You act like Henrik's Hart was such a terrible injustice, but it just wasn't. He was the best player on one of the elite teams that wasn't a total mirage, and he won the Art Ross
.

He won the Ross by 3 points, over two players with significantly more goals. 3 points is nothing, and they were easily more valuable offensively than he was.

Do you really think that he'd have still won it if he had two fewer points and Crosby/Ovy had two more? Despite all three players having essentially the same season, a lot of votes would have swung. That points race is far too important to those reporters.

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There have been far more questionable awards handed out than that one, but here we are talking about Henrik Sedin. Nitpicking his Hart is just another way of dinging modern players with respect to oldies about whom we don't have enough specific information to question the voters.
No it's not, it's dinging him with respect to the modern players who were actually better and more deserving. It has nothing to do with oldies at all.

Quote:
The main problem with the THN list is that it was horrible, not that some of the players in the 51-100 range were only on a few ballots. You do realize that the level of exclusivity you seem to want here would preclude us from looking at any awards voting beyond about the top-5, right?
Yeah, I do realize that I'm saying that. It's not like that every single year, but in a lot of years we have a tendency to draw some really shady conclusions based on what a very small percentage of writers thought.

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Is 18% of the ballots really not good enough for you?
Is 7% really good enough for you?

Quote:
Henrik got four top-3 votes in both of the seasons in question. I think that's enough to be considered significant, yes.
So, four writers (who may have all been from Vancouver, for all we know) out of a total of 123-149 thought he was a top-3 player. Thus, it's automatically reasonable to conclude he was one of the 10 most valuable players in the league? I'm actually really surprised that this isn't a line of thinking you'd be railing against and trying to change.

Quote:
You're evidently suggesting we throw out a lot of data, which I think would be foolish.
It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if we did. But a more reasonable thing to do would be to call these insignificant fringe votes what they are - an extremely small piece of the puzzle.

We can be more forgiving for older players we never saw, sure, because these few votes can be somewhat enlightening. There were fewer teams and so the writers saw the players more often, and they were a lot less stat-based. As I demonstrated to you earlier in this draft, Hart voting for forwards has followed the points race ridiculously closely since the lockout.

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03-09-2013, 01:40 AM
  #932
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i have to go to sleep, so i'll be sending a list to sturm and 70s.

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Old
03-09-2013, 01:56 AM
  #933
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Do you really think that he'd have still won it if he had two fewer points and Crosby/Ovy had two more? Despite all three players having essentially the same season, a lot of votes would have swung. That points race is far too important to those reporters.
I think Crosby was the best forward in the league that year, but the Hart is not a best forward award. I know you understand this.

Quote:
Is 7% really good enough for you?
I'm not sure. It's hard to say exactly how modern voting outside of the top-5 should be handled. No one was saying that this is conclusive evidence that Henrik was exactly the 9th and 10th most valuable player in those seasons so I don't know who you're arguing with in most of this post, but it's not me. Getting as many Hart votes as Henrik got in those seasons is, however, meaningful. This is not some one-vote throwout from 1964 where only a single person could have skewed the voting.

Even 7% is still many more votes than belong to the Vancouver writers, alone, so it cannot be simply dismissed as homerism. To call such a result nearly meaningless is silly. The awards results beyond the top-5 are obviously not an ordered list of the writers' preferences, but that doesn't mean we should just throw them out as noise, especially for players who appear multiple times in this range.

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03-09-2013, 02:30 AM
  #934
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seventies, I'll add to the above:

- you bring up a good point about the need for some sort of standardization in how we evaluate awards voting. I originally came up with the "at least two top-3 votes" standard when putting together the old Norris voting project and I think that was a good standard, but it was meant to deal mostly with older voting systems where there were many fewer voters and was really meant to weed out single oddball votes. It's obviously not as applicable to 2008 as it is to 1968.

- I dunno...but I believe an equal number of writers from each NHL city get votes in the modern system, right? This would mean that each city at 30 teams represents 3.33% of the voting. Even a standard of 5% would seem to be stringent enough in that case, as a player would need a good deal of support outside of his own home city even if the local sportswriters go full homer.

- an overly stringent standard is just as destructive as one that is overly inclusive.

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03-09-2013, 03:08 AM
  #935
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Swamp Devils pick

Roger Neilson, Coach

-Inducted into the HHOF as a builder in 2002
-Head coach of the Canucks in their Cinderalla run in 1982
-Head coach of the Rangers for their President's Trophy in 1992
-Assistant coach of the Senators for their President's Trophy in 2003

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Roger was so far ahead of the curve it was frightening, and he had a tremendous impact on NHL coaching that is still felt today. In an age when change and quantitative player evaluation, beyond newspaper stats, was mocked in every sports league except the NFL, Roger was changing the game from the inside. And over a decade later the lessons he learned, from the implementation alone, are being used as a case study for other industries.
http://www.vhockey.blogspot.ca/2009_07_01_archive.html

Quote:
Neilson was personally responsible for several NHL rule changes.

Penalty shots: Once while coaching in Peterborough, he substituted a big defenseman named Ron Stackhouse for the goalie before a penalty shot. As the player skated in on goal, Stackhouse skated out of the net, surprised the shooter and batted the puck away from the shooter. The rule was changed the next season.
Pulling the goalie: During a time-out, Neilson told his goaltender, “...when we pull you, just leave your goal stick lying in the crease.” When the other team gained posession, they sent the puck the length of the ice toward the open net, only to deflect wide when it hit the goal stick lying in the crease. The rule was changed the next season.

Delay of Game: In a Peterborough playoff game, Roger had a few buddies up in the cheap seats. To slow the pace of the game, when signalled, the loyals hurled a few eggs onto the ice which took five minutes to be cleared and slowed the pace of the opposing team. It prompted the delay of game penalty in the closing minutes to be changed to award a penalty shot.

Rally Towels: The “Rally Towels” that you now see distributed to fans prior to significant games and playoff games are directly derived from Roger Neilson. While coaching Vancouver during a playoff series against the Blackhawks in Chicago, the referee had signalled 4 penalties in a row against Vancouver. Neilson declined to throw his players’ sticks out onto the ice as he had been warned for doing so in the past. So, he took a white towel from the bench, draped it over the top of one of his player’s sticks and waved it back and forth as if to “surrender” to the referee. When Vancouver returned home for the next game in the series, every fan in attendance was given a white “Rally Towel”. This practice is still popular today.

The Art of Forechecking: Frustrated by his players chasing their opponents behind their own net, Roger enlisted the aid of his dog, Jock to convey the art of forechecking in practice. He brought his dog onto the ice and positioned him in front of the net. Roger got behind the net with a puck and Jock proceeded to jump back and forth from left to right in front of the net in an effort to get Roger to skate out from behind the net with the puck. But Jock was smart enough not to commit to going behind the net. Needless to say, the lesson sunk in.
http://www.longislandhshockey.net/ht...ain_video.html

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Scotty Bowman, with the most wins of any NHL coach, said Neilson never got the credit he deserved as a tactician and coach, in part, because he worked for so many teams.
...
Neilson was labeled "Captain Video" for introducing videotape as a teaching tool. He was regarded as a player's coach, and his loud ties behind the bench became a fashion fixture. He often lived close to his team's practice site so he could bicycle to work.
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Roger Neilson proved at an early age that he could establish a quality team regardless of the individual talent held by the players. The real talent laid within Neilson who was a superb teacher and who was able to get the most out of his players. During a lifelong commitment to hockey, Roger Neilson developed these four main coaching principles: Establish a good relationship with the team, Be prepared and organized, Defend and defend well, and Make them believe both in you and themselves.
http://www.legendsofhockey.net/Legen...io&list=ByYear

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Old
03-09-2013, 03:28 AM
  #936
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nik jr. selects defenseman Vasili Pervukhin.

Stoneberg has been PMed.


Last edited by Sturminator: 03-09-2013 at 03:34 AM.
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03-09-2013, 03:42 AM
  #937
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I came really close to scooping nik with Pervukhin

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Old
03-09-2013, 04:00 AM
  #938
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Well, I'm not sure where he'll play, but Pavol Demitra is joining our squad.

He may play either wing on our 3rd or 4th line. He'd got a strong offensive resume, has two-way ability, and plays all forward positions. As a nice bonus, he was the leading scorer of the 2010 Olympics.
An excellent pick at this point. Demitra's scoring ability compares very well to guys who were taken a long time ago. Here's a guy to whom Pavol was quite similar (both in terms of production and questionable durability):

Pavol Demitra VsX:
89, 87, 83, 80, 67, 57, 56, 50

Ziggy Palffy VsX:
96, 93, 83, 82, 73, 70

Considering that Demitra can play the scarcer position (left wing), and is somewhat better defensively (if you believe that 6th place Selke finish he has), it's an open question which of the two is really the more valuable in the ATD.

seventies asked what makes Marleau better than Demitra, and the short answer is that nothing does, though the long answer is that Marleau is a lot more durable, better defensively and was a stronger all-around even-strength player, so he makes more sense how mark is probably going to use him. Demitra is a guy who you really have to put on the half-boards of your (hopefully 2nd unit) powerplay if you want to get good use out of him. But anyway, this is a great pick, and Sullivan - Demitra are two great picks in a row for vecens and Dreak. Looks like the core of a scary 4th scoringline.

aside: this has been a refreshing draft in terms of revised evaluations of players. I have tried to help that process along in my way, but most of it has come from other GMs doing their own good work. The task of "rehabilitating" modern scoring stars continues. It is nice to see guys like Gaborik, Amonte, Marleau and Demitra make such big and fully deserving jumps. They should probably go higher, still, but this is real progress.

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03-09-2013, 04:11 AM
  #939
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Now here's a guy I'd call an elite spare. He can fill in anywhere on the 2nd-4th line if you need him to. Not the kind of guy I'd personally stick on a 4th line as a regular, but I don't begrudge doing so, either.
You and I have always built our forward lines very similarly, so I don't really disagree. If you're building a defensive 3rd line, an energy 4th line, or an intimidation 4th line, Demitra doesn't fit in.

This year, vecens and I are building our team in a different way. On the team we're trying to build, I think he fits in very well.

Quote:
Honest question, what would make a guy like Patrick Marleau better than him?
Not much. I would select Marleau before Demitra, but they are almost identical. Marleau probably has a little more longevity and durability, and Demitra probably has a little more peak.

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Old
03-09-2013, 06:05 AM
  #940
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
I just have to say the last 100+ picks or so in this draft have been really good IMO. Every time I start looking down last years draft board and thinking I want to take a guy later, there he goes. Sheppard is just the latest example.
Yeah, a lot of the cream of the lower rounds seems to be rising this year. It is pleasant to watch.

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03-09-2013, 08:30 AM
  #941
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Swamp Devils pick

Roger Neilson, Coach
Really good pick to work with Sather.

I know his record isn't as impressive as a lot of other coaches due to coaching a lot of so-so teams in his career, but based on his innovation and impact on hockey, Roger Nielson could easily be a head coach in this... the guy lived and breathed hockey.

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03-09-2013, 09:43 AM
  #942
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Halifax's clock is up, correct?

Pick coming shortly.

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03-09-2013, 10:00 AM
  #943
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As Ryan Kesler and Mike Richards are drafted, I'll follow up with a similar player with a similar career.

Patrice Bergeron, C


Bergeron is the 25th player to be awarded the Triple Gold Pin for winning the World Championships, Olympic Gold, and the Stanley Cup

Bergeron plays for a division rival of my favourite team, and I see a lot of him. I hate the Bruins but I have a ton of respect for Bergeron, as well as former Sen Zdeno Chara. Those two guys have been the heart and the core of the Boston Bruins in the past few seasons, and Boston has been one of the very best teams in the league over that time.

Accomplishments
  • Bergeron was voted the Selke Trophy as the league's best defensive forward in 2011-12, receiving 106 of 149 first place votes. He finished top 5 in voting for the trophy in the two previous seasons.
  • Bergeron was a playoff hero for the Bruins in 2010-11, leading their main matchup line and scoring two goals in the Cup-winning Game 7.
  • Bergeron was a part of the gold medal winning Team Canada in the 2010 Olympics.
  • Bergeron has won more regular season faceoffs than any other player since the beginning of the 2009-10 season. His faceoff percentage is the fourth highest over that time.
  • Bergeron's ranks in SHTOI among forwards on his team since 2008-09: 3, 2, 1, 1, 2
  • Bergeron led the NHL in plus-minus last season and is currently leading in this season

Quotes
SI:
Quote:
"He was a huge difference maker," Chiarelli says. "If you watch him closely during a game, you'll see he's almost always in the right position. We're a straight-line team, and he gives us so much defensive presence coming back up the middle of the ice."

Says Marchand, "He's always thinking ahead, where the next play is going to go.
Quote:
In the process he outplayed a man he is often compared with: Vancouver forward Ryan Kesler, who at that point had an early hold on the Conn Smythe Trophy.

"Bergeron to us is as much as Kesler is to them," Bruins coach Claude Julien had said on the eve of the finals. "He brings the same elements. He plays hard every game, he's a great face-off guy, power play, penalty kill.... [He] does it all for us."
ESPN:
Quote:
"When you've got a guy like Bergeron doing such a good job down in your own end, the puck gets out quicker," explained Julien. "When you have those guys on each side of you there's a pretty good attack going on. That's a good line for us and all three deserve a lot of credit."

When the Bruins start with the puck after a faceoff win, it usually translates into success. Boston's centermen are among the league's best. Bergeron is ranked No. 6 in the league with a 61.6 percent success rate on drops. He was 12-for-20 against the Leafs on Thursday. But even when he loses a draw, most times he's still the first one on the puck in an attempt to force a turnover.

"He doesn't like to lose draws," Julien said. "If you lose a draw, for him it's a mistake and he's going to try to redeem himself as quick as he can. That's the reliability that comes with his game."
Bergeron compared to Kesler and Richards by the career numbers.
Player GP G A P Non-PP G Non-PP A Non-PP Pts PP% TmPP+ SH% TmSH+
Patrice Bergeron 558 149 273 422 104 183 287 41% 1.22 39% 0.92
Ryan Kesler 568 154 188 342 103 134 237 62% 0.92 40% 0.90
Mike Richards 549 157 253 410 114 145 259 51% 1.13 39% 0.84
Their penalty killing stats are remarkably close - all have killed a lot of penalties with a lot of success.

Bergeron has played the most on the power play for the worst power play teams. Kesler has played the least on the power play for the best power play teams. There's not necessarily a lot to distinguish the three here and none are significant PP contributors in an all-time sense.

Looking at their non-PP scoring (as that's their role in this draft), their goal scoring numbers are pretty similar. Bergeron has the most assists and Kesler the fewest. Linemates are probably part of that, but I think most people would agree that Bergeron is a better playmaker than Kesler.


Last edited by overpass: 03-09-2013 at 12:15 PM.
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Old
03-09-2013, 10:12 AM
  #944
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With our eighteen selection, the 553rd in this year All-Time Draft, les Nordiques de Québec are very proud to select, from Cudworth, Saskatchewan, Canada, C Orland Kurtenbach





''We are extremely please to add such a dedicated player in Orland Kurtenbach. An incredible team player, Kurtenbach was the first captain of the Vancouver Canucks, and for many years, filled that role. One of the toughest, most terrorizing player of his generation, Kurtenbach was an incredible fighter. It's hard to ask more of a role player than what Orland brings to the table, and will play on the fourth line alongside Mel Bridgman.''

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03-09-2013, 10:15 AM
  #945
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Bergeron compared to Kesler and Richards by the numbers.
Yeah, Bergeron is the best even-strength player of the three. You're all still missing one guy who was a bit better than all of them, though.

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03-09-2013, 10:18 AM
  #946
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Viking Maniacs selects coach Jacques Demers.


Last edited by Darth Yoda: 03-09-2013 at 10:49 AM. Reason: Bolded the choice
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03-09-2013, 10:18 AM
  #947
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Yeah, Bergeron is the best even-strength player of the three. You're all still missing one guy who was a bit better than all of them, though.
An active player?

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Old
03-09-2013, 10:20 AM
  #948
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An active player?
Not quite.

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Old
03-09-2013, 10:33 AM
  #949
Hawkey Town 18
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Can't decide which way I want to go with this pick. Give me an hour or so to make a decision. In the meantime, if anyone wants to PM me with a trade offer feel free.

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Old
03-09-2013, 10:53 AM
  #950
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With their skipped pick Halifax selects their second Percy in a row, Percy LeSueur, G.

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