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Buffalo Bills - Off-Season 2013 (Draft day draft day gotta get down on draft day)

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Old
03-11-2013, 12:30 AM
  #151
dma0034
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Originally Posted by Imlach a cup View Post
Every year "experts" predict players and every year they get it wrong repeatedly. So unless you yourself have watched every college game from every single player in the draft, you have NFL level comprehenssion of every system in place or being considered, and years of experience identifying NFL level talent, your review of these players is almost worthless and therefor your analysis of how the draft will end up is also worthless. You cant even hide behind honest speculation because those are statements that you believe are unequivocally correct, proven by your dogged defense of them despite reasonable contradictory statements. Your second 2 paragraphs are obviously hurried attempts at belittling LS and not worth my time to even give a second look.

The draft is an inexact science based on percentages. The more visible talent the higher the percentage. 2 facts; there are 0 100% prospects and every year a player will beat his percentage (either positively or negatively). You draft on potential regardless of how long development will take. Every player coming out in the draft has the potential to be a good NFLer, the deciding factor has much more to do with drive, work ethic, and a favorable situation then it does with talent, especially outside the top 2-5 picks.
Before you continue: Look up how many starting QBs have been projected to go in the first round.... it is about 85%. Since you mention "experts"... why is it that most "experts" don't have a QB rated as a 1st round talent this year? So if the draft is an inexact science (which it isn't) why is it that 26 out of 32 teams have a QB drafted in the either the 1st round or first half of the second... and 4 teams have QBs drafted 6th or later? That means that 2 out of 32 teams have a starting QB drafted in the 3rd-5th round (Wilson, Schaub) and that is the level of what most of these QBs (outside of Barkley and Smith) are projected as.... QBs that are projected here are normally projects that flail out after a couple years.

So yes please do tell me again about how the draft is an inexact science. Oh and not even going back that far Luck was a 100% prospect. Also the Bills need a QB that has all three (Arm Strength, Accuracy, Game Decisions) because when the cold weather hits and it becomes harder to throw (and grip) the arm strength will be needed (Matt Barkley). No QB in the league can survive when they have difficulty locating their secondary receiver (Geno Smith) and has "throwing issues".

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03-11-2013, 01:32 AM
  #152
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Originally Posted by dma0034 View Post
Before you continue: Look up how many starting QBs have been projected to go in the first round.... it is about 85%. Since you mention "experts"... why is it that most "experts" don't have a QB rated as a 1st round talent this year? So if the draft is an inexact science (which it isn't) why is it that 26 out of 32 teams have a QB drafted in the either the 1st round or first half of the second... and 4 teams have QBs drafted 6th or later? That means that 2 out of 32 teams have a starting QB drafted in the 3rd-5th round (Wilson, Schaub) and that is the level of what most of these QBs (outside of Barkley and Smith) are projected as.... QBs that are projected here are normally projects that flail out after a couple years.

So yes please do tell me again about how the draft is an inexact science. Oh and not even going back that far Luck was a 100% prospect. Also the Bills need a QB that has all three (Arm Strength, Accuracy, Game Decisions) because when the cold weather hits and it becomes harder to throw (and grip) the arm strength will be needed (Matt Barkley). No QB in the league can survive when they have difficulty locating their secondary receiver (Geno Smith) and has "throwing issues".
I think you are underestimating Geno. I'm a fan of any QB who can play in the cold and his receivers were subpar. Put him with an NFL caliber group and I am of the opinion that he thrives.

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03-11-2013, 10:43 AM
  #153
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If the draft were an exact science nobody would ever miss on their picks.

Of course you can get a better QB picking earlier, that's just common sense and picks like Brady are outliers. But think of all the high picks that failed or are looking like they are on their way to failure. Is Sanchez looking like he was 4th overall pick worthy? Not a chance.

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03-11-2013, 11:20 AM
  #154
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I just saw that McKelvin deal. $5 million a season. Typical Bills.

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03-11-2013, 12:12 PM
  #155
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In more general NFL news, Percy Harvin traded to the Seahawks.

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03-11-2013, 12:27 PM
  #156
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Cot damn that team did not need more weapons.

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03-11-2013, 12:50 PM
  #157
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Kiper's new mock draft has the Bills selecting Jarvis Jones. (ESPN Insider)

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft...agency-account

Quote:
8. Jarvis Jones (OLB) - Univ. of Georgia

Pick analysis: Want to guarantee an improvement in your pass rush? Here's your safe pick. Jones has been exceptional for two years now against elite competition, and demands help when he comes off the edge. He's not Von Miller in terms of his athleticism, but he has the chance to produce at a slightly lower level, making him a good value at this slot.

Free-agency factor: The Bills spent a lot in free agency last year, and won't be as active this year. Quarterback could come into play at this pick because of the lack of options on the market. But if Arizona takes Smith, I don't like the value here, and they'd be better served finding a QB in Round 2.

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03-11-2013, 01:01 PM
  #158
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If he's medically clear:


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03-11-2013, 01:52 PM
  #159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
In more general NFL news, Percy Harvin traded to the Seahawks.
As a Bills and Vikings fan, I'm extremely disappointed and upset this had to happen. Not too fond of Percy right now for demanding out but it sucks to not only lose Sidney Rice a few years ago but now Harvin to the same team, within the conference no less. Unbelievable how bad the Vikings' passing game just got, not that it wasn't already. The one thing I am happy about is that they managed to get a first for Harvin so the Vikings now own two and should be able to draft two good players. One will have to be a WR.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Kiper's new mock draft has the Bills selecting Jarvis Jones. (ESPN Insider)

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft...agency-account
Apparently Jones was wrongfully diagnosed and never had spinal stenosis. Apparently it was a concussion or stinger in the spinal-cord. At least that's what the new report says. Not sure if they're just trying to help him out and boost his draft position so less teams have fear of choosing him but I don't think they could just lie about that in a medical report. If the report is true, I'd very much consider him for the Bills.

The way I see it at this point (obviously not including any free agent moves so it could change in 24 hours), barring the Bills trading up for a player like Geno Smith, the players I'd like at No. 8 are Smith (probably not happening), Joeckel (not happening), Fisher (probably not happening), Milliner (not happening), Jordan, or Jones. If we're staying at No. 8 we might be able to nab one of those players. If we aren't able to get one of them there, I fully support trading down.

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03-11-2013, 03:34 PM
  #160
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Anquan Boldin traded to SF for a 6th round pick.

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03-11-2013, 03:52 PM
  #161
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Anquan Boldin traded to SF for a 6th round pick.
Crazy... That guy was a machine for them in the playoffs

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03-11-2013, 04:07 PM
  #162
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Wow. San Fran filled their biggest need for nothing and cap space. The NFC West has the two best teams in the league.

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03-11-2013, 04:14 PM
  #163
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Originally Posted by sabresfan129103 View Post
I just saw that McKelvin deal. $5 million a season. Typical Bills.
NFL contracts are deceiving. There is almost no way Leodis actually gets $5 million per season. If he does, it will be because he earned it! Likely he will be in the 2-3 million dollar range.

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03-11-2013, 05:09 PM
  #164
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Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
Wow. San Fran filled their biggest need for nothing and cap space. The NFC West has the two best teams in the league.
Man do I wish I was a Niners fan right now.

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03-11-2013, 05:47 PM
  #165
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Originally Posted by TheSchoolMaster View Post
If the draft were an exact science nobody would ever miss on their picks.

Of course you can get a better QB picking earlier, that's just common sense and picks like Brady are outliers. But think of all the high picks that failed or are looking like they are on their way to failure. Is Sanchez looking like he was 4th overall pick worthy? Not a chance.
Yeah you right but all I'm saying is that outside of 6 QBs (2 of which aren't high quality) weren't picked in the first 50 picks.... these QBs aren't rated as 1st round QBs and picking one just because "well there are always one of two QBs that are good a year" is foolish when the Bills have so many holes (bigger too).

Geno Smith's numbers in cold weather games take a hit big.... which is concerning.
Arizona wants Barkley more than Smith so unless a team trades up the Bills will have an opportunity to draft Smith (which may or may not be a good thing)

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03-11-2013, 05:50 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
Wow. San Fran filled their biggest need for nothing and cap space. The NFC West has the two best teams in the league.
Wonder how San Fran's war room will look on draft with 10 picks... must be nice to have too many draft picks and not enough holes.

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03-11-2013, 06:00 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Kiper's new mock draft has the Bills selecting Jarvis Jones. (ESPN Insider)

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft...agency-account
Would rather have Mingo, who he has the Jets taking.

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03-11-2013, 07:06 PM
  #168
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Originally Posted by vcv View Post
Anquan Boldin traded to SF for a 6th round pick.
Huge Boldin fan here from his days in Arizona and it really sucks to see him being traded from the team he helped win the Super Bowl a month ago to the team he beat. It's too bad they had to toss him to the side but I do understand the cap situation they're in. I'm not high on the Niners but Boldin now has a chance to stick it to the Cardinals twice a year I suppose. Ravens got something for a guy they were going to have to release. Reports say the Vikings also made the Ravens an offer but the 49ers offered more, which is weird because a sixth is nothing but I guess the Vikings didn't want to take on that contract and might figure to try for Wallace or Jennings tomorrow, who are both younger and better. Part of me wishes the Bills would have been in on this but we aren't contenders and probably wouldn't have had the room to take on that contract. Expensive for a still-good player but Boldin is clearly not getting any younger.

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Would rather have Mingo, who he has the Jets taking.
I don't see the Bills' need for Mingo at all. We've invested a lot of money into DE and odds are (which in my mind would be the right move) we won't release Anderson. I want to see what he can do. I'm not ready to just give up on him like a lot of Bills fans. The guy played five games. I'd like to re-sign Kyle Moore too.

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03-11-2013, 09:10 PM
  #169
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Huge Boldin fan here from his days in Arizona and it really sucks to see him being traded from the team he helped win the Super Bowl a month ago to the team he beat. It's too bad they had to toss him to the side but I do understand the cap situation they're in. I'm not high on the Niners but Boldin now has a chance to stick it to the Cardinals twice a year I suppose. Ravens got something for a guy they were going to have to release. Reports say the Vikings also made the Ravens an offer but the 49ers offered more, which is weird because a sixth is nothing but I guess the Vikings didn't want to take on that contract and might figure to try for Wallace or Jennings tomorrow, who are both younger and better. Part of me wishes the Bills would have been in on this but we aren't contenders and probably wouldn't have had the room to take on that contract. Expensive for a still-good player but Boldin is clearly not getting any younger.



I don't see the Bills' need for Mingo at all. We've invested a lot of money into DE and odds are (which in my mind would be the right move) we won't release Anderson. I want to see what he can do. I'm not ready to just give up on him like a lot of Bills fans. The guy played five games. I'd like to re-sign Kyle Moore too.
Mingo a LB. Jones has some up in the air health questions. Who is a better player may be debateable.

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03-11-2013, 09:11 PM
  #170
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The eve of Free Agency...any rumors floating?

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03-11-2013, 09:39 PM
  #171
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Now that Boldin got dealt, I'm worried about Ellerbe re-signing. My wet dreams of a backer corps of Williams-Ellerbe-Bradham-Jordan/Mingo/Jones/Ansah could be no more.

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03-11-2013, 10:26 PM
  #172
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Originally Posted by BK Triple Threat View Post
The eve of Free Agency...any rumors floating?
None for Buffalo and everyone has heard everything so far. I expect a team will be highly interested in Victor Cruz's services though. Also a lot of analysts think the Browns will poach the Ravens-Steelers players.

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03-12-2013, 02:01 AM
  #173
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BK Triple Threat View Post
The eve of Free Agency...any rumors floating?
What I've heard:

- As for us, we've made calls to Landry, Cason, Amendola, and Gibson. IIRC the Bills have also shown interest in Vasquez. My gut says we'll have a quiet day and land Cason. That's it. I don't know how I'd feel about him; not sure if he's much of an upgrade to what we have already.

- The Lions and Buccaneers are the teams believed to land Dashon Goldson.

- Washington is expected to make a run at Aquib Talib if the Patriots can't re-sign him.

- Mike Wallace to Miami is said to be a done deal.

- The Vikings are expected to be in the Greg Jennings sweepstakes.

- The Browns and Colts will be in a bidding war for Paul Kruger.

- Reggie Bush is likely to land in Detroit or Arizona.

- The Broncos, Titans (Steve Hutchinson will retire tomorrow), Bears, Chargers, Colts, and Bills have interest in Andy Levitre. It's believed the Titans will go hard after him.

- It is believed Baltimore is trying hard to re-sign Dannell Ellerbe and it's very possible they keep him.

- It is widely expected Steven Jackson lands in Atlanta.

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03-12-2013, 04:21 AM
  #174
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I can't sleep so here are my early morning thoughts on Free agency and draft:

-QB: I have never liked Geno Smith. That being said, I didn't like NBA player James Harden in college either and he's doing pretty well in the pros. My issue here is that there is very little separating the "top" QBs in this draft. Since no one can predict (more than an educated guess) what they will do at the next level, I think you are best served taking your best shot at what's left in the 2nd, and taking a sure fire stud at another position at No. 8.

-WRs a plenty. There are a number of WRs available I would take a flyer on in free agency. With a few key adds, No. 8 becomes even more likely to be a QB or LB.

-G: Could Urbik make the move to LG? If yes, I would look for the Bills to consider NYJ G Moore for RG. Former Marrone project with the Jets. If no, I still wouldn't spend big money at the position. I know the importance of a solid line, but I have tremendous confidence in Marrone to identify OL talent and ensure they develop into the best player they can. I saw it at Syracuse.

-RT: With that confidence in Marrone, I also feel he can find or groom a competent/if not solid RT out of Hairston/Pears/Sanders.

-TE Delanie Walker/Keller/Bennett/Myers/Fasano Walker screams Doug Marrone to me. I wouldn't over pay for him, but Doug does occasionally use a FB and definitely will utilize a TE. Walker can do it all and adds a special teams aspect as well. Doug uses a pass catching TE in his offense and would benefit from adding one of these guys.

-DE: Mike Devito should be a target. Great fit for Pettine's D and gives us lots of flexibility with Mario and Anderson which should make us stout against the run and a dangerous pass rushing team.

-LB: I understand some reluctance to bringing in Bart Scott, but he should come cheap and at the very least would add veteran depth with great experience in this defense to share with the rest of the roster. If Devito pushes Mario and Anderson to OLB, Jones/Mingo/Ansah maybe aren't the target at 8. Could really use some help at ILB even with Bart Scott.

-CB: Antoine Cason has the size, speed and experience I would look for opposite Gilmore. He's also still only 26 and should come relatively inexpensive (although McKelvin is getting $5M per). I really think this is an important position for Pettine's defense. Gilmore, Cason, McKelvin, Brooks, Williams, Rogers is a decent start.

-S: Landry would be nice, but he is not durable and appears to be asking for too much. Searcy is intriguing and could be the answer. Wouldn't mind them drafting Syracuse S Shamarko Thomas either. He is aggressive and physical. His combine might have inflated his value, but if we don't add a veteran SS in FA and Thomas is still around in the 4th I would select him.

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03-12-2013, 08:10 AM
  #175
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DeAngelo Hall just got released (high cap number)...he might be worth a look at CB, though he'll probably demand a pretty penny.

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