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Putting It All Together-What does Jarmo do now?

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03-11-2013, 05:51 AM
  #1
EspenK
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Putting It All Together-What does Jarmo do now?

Okay. We've been down, we're now up. We've *****ed about Umbie,Brass,Bob, Nikitin,Toots,Aucoin, etc. Now they are all heroes.

A rebuild supposedly is needed. A couple more wins and we're in the playoff hunt and Jones, Mackinnon, et al are merely guys that will torture us for years to come.

We're young. Most of our guys are signed for next year or are no brainers to be resigned.

Richards is a lame duck next year if he isn't extended.

Barring a return to historical Jacket habits and a prolonged slump, what does Jarmo do?

Things are a bit more complicated than when he first showed up.

???

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03-11-2013, 07:24 AM
  #2
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The team is playing great but we're not in the hunt.

We've played 26 games and have 24 points. If we played like a great team (1.22 pts/game) we finish with 51 points in 48 games. Also consider we play more road games than home and it will be tough to play at that clip even more so.

To get to the 8th spot we need the Blues to get 23 points or fewer in 23 games. Plus we we need the Coyotes to get 24 points or less in 23 games, the Stars to get 25 points or less in 24 games, the Preds to get 25 points or less in 23 games and the Avs to get 27 points or less in 24 games. Plus I'm not factoring in tie breakers, so likley need some teams to get less than above.

meaning we would have to continue playing great hockey (again we will go as far as Bob takes us and personally I think there is slim/no chance he can keep it up for another 22 games) AND we need to pass 5 teams.

The playing well and 5 teams is key. if we were 5 points out and in 9th place then yes it's possible, but since every other team in the West is only playing other Western teams and with the abundance of 3 point games, well we're not in the race. Get to 9th or 10th place and then we can talk.

For what Jarmo/JD do:
1. Evaluate the coaches. Does Richards fit? I didn't think so 2 weeks ago, no I dunno.
2. Which players fit the style of play we want to play? This is tough until we get the coach selected.

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03-11-2013, 07:25 AM
  #3
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Not sure I see the complication. We draft well, develop our young, make smart FA signings, and shrewd trades. Nothing much has changed.

While the #1 or #2 pick could greatly assist in the process, it isn't an absolute. Plenty of top end talent has been drafted later in the first round, it is just up to us to find it. We will just be drafting less of a "sure thing".

This team isn't devoid of talent, just not as much as we'd like on the elite side.

I caution the use of the phrase "heroes" however. Playing well within a system is simply doing your job.

I'm not surprised that we are starting to win, just a little surprised at a 5 game winning streak and 7 game point streak. That is hard to do with a team structured like this. They are getting real comfortable in 1 goal games.

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03-11-2013, 07:29 AM
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I just don't look for that radical an overhall. We are not going to find our 1st line for next year in this draft. Parts of it sure, but not completely and most assuredly not immediately. If there are some players traded, at the deadline or draft, it most likely will be for picks and prospects which will be incorporated into the system.

The J's will look to build from the bottom "a brick at a time". Players will be sent through the system and developed. Then as they are ready they will move onto the roster. They will take those rosters spots because they are ready and because they are better, not because of their draft position.

I don't look for any blockbuster top end trades. I don't even think there's going to be much in the rental type moves at the deadline. I think they like the veteran/youth mix they have. Perhaps some of the defensive depth could be moved for forward help, prospect for prospect. One of Moore, Goloubef, or Prout could garner an equivalent forward. I think the roster we have is the roster we will go forward with until such time as those picks and prospects mature and change it.

I don't know this to be a fact, I am just surmising based on what JD himself has said and done. He hired JK whose strength drafting not wheeling/ dealing. Every pressor or gathering he has stressed his brick at a time theme, growing with the youth, the process of growth etc.

Put it all together, and I hope we like the Blue Jackets we've got, because I think these are the Blue Jackets were going to see for a while. A young, hard working group, growing up to be a hockey team right before our eyes with just the right amount of veteran presence to show them how.


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03-11-2013, 07:32 AM
  #5
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The team is playing great but we're not in the hunt.
If what you are saying is that we have a 5.6% chance to the make the playoffs, the bookies agree.

I stated the difficult last month of the season, not to mention we are in the West. Having said that, we are in the hunt. A 13-6-3 record is possible, if extremely unlikely.

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03-11-2013, 07:36 AM
  #6
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I'm pretty sure the plan from the start was simply to actually use those three 1sts to boost our offensive scoring talent, and maybe trade a few rentals, and otherwise leave things be and let kids develop.

I think the only revision to that plan that has come about from this run is that "hiring a new coach" is potentially no longer on the agenda.

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03-11-2013, 08:30 AM
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The team played much better once the thumb of Maclean and the piercing gaze of MacLean was off them. Howson did make some good signings that offseason with Hejda and Novotny.

Now, I'm not going to compare what Ken Hitchcock did here roughly two seasons to what Richards is doing now, but there's something to be said for maximizing what you have in your room. Richards is squeezing every drop of everything out of these guys despite injuries to key, key guys.

Ultimately, it will fall to Jarmo. I'm sure he has a good idea of what he wants in a team, a notion that Scott Howson didn't either have when he came on board or was content to build on Hitch's vision until Howson was convinced that vision wasn't NHL-sustainable anymore.

This is a nice story right now, And like someone mentioned in the GDT, I would probably call this season a success if Detroit misses the playoffs and we can point to the series with the CBJ as the reason. But I'm not getting too attached to what is here, we've seen it with the "first year coaches", they succeed a lot of time simply because the message is different. The real challenge is sustaining your message while still having the players buy in.

Be it this offseason or next, I still don't think Richards' contract will be renewed. I still think changes are coming to the lockerroom.


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03-11-2013, 09:19 AM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blahblah View Post
Not sure I see the complication. We draft well, develop our young, make smart FA signings, and shrewd trades. Nothing much has changed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roadman View Post
I just don't look for that radical an overhall.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
I'm pretty sure the plan from the start was simply to actually use those three 1sts to boost our offensive scoring talent, and maybe trade a few rentals, and otherwise leave things be and let kids develop.

I think the only revision to that plan that has come about from this run is that "hiring a new coach" is potentially no longer on the agenda.
In general, these.

The "plan" is surely ongoing. Presuming that it's a full-on evaluation of the on-ice personnel individually and collectively, and the coaching and scouting staffs (staves?). Considering Jarmo and even JD are short-timers, the team's recent play is likely impacting hat evaluation.

Let me add:
With regard to the draft - If the "plan" was "Draft MacKinnon" then someone should have told the current team. And shame on the FO for having such a limited "plan." (Hint: I don't think this was the "plan.")
With regard to the trade deadline: If JD/Jarmo had already decided that certain players either fit or don't fit within the structure either in the lineup, locker room or salary structure moving forward, I would expect the "plan" has not changed at all. We will see a trade deadline little affected by current on-ice results and more by long-term roster building.

One last thing: This is a perfect opportunity to reiterate my position that none of us has anything but conjecture on what JD/JK's take is on individual personnel, save for a few offhand remarks by JD. I suppose we could cite conventional wisdom and attribute that thinking to the FO, but my guess (total guess) is that would be a mistake.

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Old
03-11-2013, 09:33 AM
  #9
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I really don't see anything changing due to this current winning streak. We have seen these type winning streaks before, and they have fizzled out as fast as they materialized.

Certainly we can claim ongoing success due to many factors. Streak despite injuries to key players, Bob continues his impressive play in goal, team sticks to game-plan and continues to frustrate other teams, etc. But the 13 year Jacket fan in me just doesn't have the confidence that that will happen.

My best guess is that we do continue to work hard, and the games continue to be competitive and fun to watch. But I see that translating into, perhaps, .500 hockey the rest of the way, best case scenario.

We still have a lot of redundant players, and JD and JK will do their best to determine the keepers, and get best value for the cast-offs. They stick with solid young guys and prospects, and draft smartly, develop smartly, and sprinkle in the occasional FA when it makes sense.

So, in other words, I don't see any reason to deviate from the plan that they may have in place.

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03-11-2013, 09:36 AM
  #10
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My opinions on some changes...

Barring a complete collapse, I think Richards remains as the head guy. This team has been competitive all year, for the most part, and has played really well recently. Personally, I like the coaching staff.

I believe that Mason will be dealt at the deadline. I think that Mase can be a top goalie in this league still, but just not in Columbus. Too much negative history there.

I would be mildly surprised to see him trade Prospal and Aucoin. I believe there value in the room is more than what they can get in return (a 4th or 5th round pick maybe?). I could be completely wrong about that! I wouldn't be shocked if they're dealt.

We seem to have a lot of depth on D and I wouldn't be surprised if we package one of the kids in a deal. Jarmo will need to make a decision on who the keepers are and who is expendable. My guess is that Savard is expendable, at this point.

What else does he do? I don't know, but am anxious to see. Before this past week I wouldn't have been shocked to see Brassard or Umberger dealt, but now I'm not sure.

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03-11-2013, 09:46 AM
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How big a disparity is there from: Letting his contract play out to being fired?

In terms of Richards.

Serves no purpose to fire him now, if you ask me, especially if player changes are on the way, but the building could be along enough after next season that he simply isn't renewed. Which is prescisely what I see happening.

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03-11-2013, 10:04 AM
  #12
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Originally Posted by KeithBWhittington View Post
How big a disparity is there from: Letting his contract play out to being fired?

In terms of Richards.

Serves no purpose to fire him now, if you ask me, especially if player changes are on the way, but the building could be along enough after next season that he simply isn't renewed. Which is prescisely what I see happening.
I don't see this at all. Jarmo is going to be decisive and if he sees Richards as the guy then he will be extended. If he doesn't see him as the guy them he will be sent packing. I don't see an in between where he simply allows his contact to expire.

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03-11-2013, 10:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
Okay. We've been down, we're now up. We've *****ed about Umbie,Brass,Bob, Nikitin,Toots,Aucoin, etc. Now they are all heroes.

A rebuild supposedly is needed. A couple more wins and we're in the playoff hunt and Jones, Mackinnon, et al are merely guys that will torture us for years to come.

We're young. Most of our guys are signed for next year or are no brainers to be resigned.

Richards is a lame duck next year if he isn't extended.

Barring a return to historical Jacket habits and a prolonged slump, what does Jarmo do?

Things are a bit more complicated than when he first showed up.

???
Things are complicated only to the fans.

I'd say a "return to historical Jacket habits" is more likely then the team overachieving like it has. A 5 game winning streak shouldn't change feelings for the team, it still isn't very good. Logic says the team will regress to the average, which is still a top 5 pick.

We've heard brick by brick roughly 3,247 times since Davidson took over. Short of this team winning the next 22 Regular Season games and 16 playoff games, the plan isn't going to change.

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03-11-2013, 10:40 AM
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I don't see this at all. Jarmo is going to be decisive and if he sees Richards as the guy then he will be extended. If he doesn't see him as the guy them he will be sent packing. I don't see an in between where he simply allows his contact to expire.
With the possible distraction that the media could conjure with this, do you see the need for Richards to be extended by the time next season starts, if he is indeed the man, as judged by Jarmo? I don't think this is enough time, even through next season, if you're going to have an active GM from a trades standpoint, which is what I expect. Too much is unknown, and a new GM equates to housecleaning more often than not.

This would be much easier to decipher if Richards was in year one of the standard 3 year deal for head coaches. I'd place all my money into him being fired before the contract expires or before any serious extension talks take place.

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03-11-2013, 10:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KeithBWhittington View Post
With the possible distraction that the media could conjure with this, do you see the need for Richards to be extended by the time next season starts, if he is indeed the man, as judged by Jarmo?
A media distraction in this town consists of a bunch of passive-aggressive Aaron Portzline tweets. It's not really an issue.

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03-11-2013, 10:51 AM
  #16
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Things are complicated only to the fans.

I'd say a "return to historical Jacket habits" is more likely then the team overachieving like it has. A 5 game winning streak shouldn't change feelings for the team, it still isn't very good. Logic says the team will regress to the average, which is still a top 5 pick.

We've heard brick by brick roughly 3,247 times since Davidson took over. Short of this team winning the next 22 Regular Season games and 16 playoff games, the plan isn't going to change.
Agree 100%. Best stat often is GF vs GA. We average 2.35 GF and 2.77 GA.
We're scoring a little more recently, but Bob has been on fire in goal.

Stay the course, if we happen to win 5 more in a row then we would likley be close to 8th.

With so few teams selling it's going to be tempting for JD and Jarmo, I have no idea what they plan. As others have said I expect Mason to get moved if their are goalie injuries, he likely isn't isn't in the long term plan here.

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03-11-2013, 11:03 AM
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Extend BOB! lock him up.

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03-11-2013, 11:07 AM
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Don't worry guys, we'll finish 17th in the league and have 4 picks in the 13-32 range.. just enough to miss the superstar talent that slipped through the first 10 picks and hopefully find a gem with one of the 3 other picks.

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03-11-2013, 11:44 AM
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Don't worry guys, we'll finish 17th in the league and have 4 picks in the 13-32 range.. just enough to miss the superstar talent that slipped through the first 10 picks and hopefully find a gem with one of the 3 other picks.
Yep, I totally agree, its a catch 22, people want to win now, but we are just hurting ourselves, longterm, like we always have. Jarmo can be all world as a talent evaluator, but its highly unlikely we Draft a Mckinnon, or a Jones picking around 10 or so. Look at Pittsburgh, how did they get Malkin, Crosby ? Chicago, Toews, Kane. This was the year to be competitive, but win the lottery, and use the other 2 firsts to find gems. Hoping that Jarmo starts blowing up this team, while some of the questionables, Brassard, Umberger are actually playing well. What we are showing right now is similiar to the year Hitch took us to the playoffs. When you get a hot goalie, and play sound D, you can win games. When Bob wasnt as hot earlier in the season, you see what our future is without the hot goalie.

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03-11-2013, 11:53 AM
  #20
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I would imagine that management will carry on with planning without much regard to a 5 game winning streak and make any adjustments to their developing plans based on where the team is in mid-April. If certain player performances are such that plans should be altered, then I'd think that management would alter them accordingly.

If decisions had been made to unload some dead weight veterans (Umberger, Brassard) if at all possible, then I'd assume that the brass will proceed with those plans. 5 games shouldn't affect an evaluation very much. These guys are what they are. Like all players, their stats fluctuate. They can't be awful all of the time.

While it's hard to not like how Bob has played in net over the past week or so, it's not near enough time to reach any "stand pat" with respect to the starting goalie.

For us fans, it's easy. Enjoy the ride. Hope it lasts a while longer.
And don't reach for sharp objects when it doesn't.

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03-11-2013, 11:54 AM
  #21
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Winning steak or not every CBJ player is being assessed for the long term core of the team, there will be changes before the 2013-2014 season. I don’t think we really know the way JD/JK will manage yet but I think they want to build a team with some players that will provide playoff potential consistently over several years. The goal is to put an end to the losing mentality and doormat perception of the Columbus Blue Jackets (in my opinion).

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03-11-2013, 12:02 PM
  #22
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Extend BOB! lock him up.
Yep. At very worst, he's a serviceable backup. At his best, he's the man.

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03-11-2013, 12:09 PM
  #23
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The way I'd like to see it play out is to win some more games during the current home stand, then play tough on the road but come up short. This will give Columbus a taste of what's to come while dropping us back into prime draft position.

That said, I'm sure as hell not gonna root for my team to lose.

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03-11-2013, 12:09 PM
  #24
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Yep. At very worst, he's a serviceable backup. At his best, he's the man.
He's going to be a RFA, no urgency. Why would we be talking extension during the peak of his play?

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03-11-2013, 12:18 PM
  #25
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I do think we've found something here, but we're not good enough to make it this year. I do think we can make it next year if we can get at least one top line player, especially if Johansen keeps progressing the way he has.

At worst, I see us in the playoffs in 3 years.

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