HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Central Division > Colorado Avalanche
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

The 2013 NHL Entry Draft

View Poll Results: What type of player should we draft?
Powerforward [Centre/Winger] 10 5.92%
Two-Way Forward 1 0.59%
Playmaking Centre 8 4.73%
Goalscoring Winger 64 37.87%
Defensive-Defenseman 16 9.47%
Offensive-Defenseman 10 5.92%
Two-Way Defenseman 47 27.81%
Goaler 0 0%
Trade our 1st for an upgrade 4 2.37%
Other [Smallish Character Centres] 9 5.33%
Voters: 169. You may not vote on this poll

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
03-08-2013, 01:08 PM
  #476
Nihiliste
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Nihiliste's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,417
vCash: 542
I decided to take an in depth look at whether or not it was wise to take a Dman early. Because there are always good players taken later in the draft, and I wanted to eliminate the influence of hindsight, I thought a reasonable starting point was to look at 3 factors - who was the first dman taken in the draft, who was the next forward taken, and who was the next dman taken.

1st Defenseman chosen by Draft Year
Year - Player (Next forward taken) (Next defenseman taken)
2011: #4 Adam Larsson (#5 Ryan Strome) (#9 Dougie Hamilton)
2010: #3 Erik Gudbranson (#4 Ryan Johansen) (#12 Cam Fowler)
2009: #2 Victor Hedman (#3 Matt Duchene) (#6 OEL)
2008: #2 Drew Doughty (#6 Nikita Filatov) (#3 Zach Bogosian)
2007: #4 Thomas Hickey (#6 Sam Gagner) (#5 Karl Alzner)
2006: #1 EJ (#2 Jordan Staal) (#16 Ty Wishart)
2005: #3 Jack Johnson (#4 Benoit Pouliout) (#9 Brian Lee)
2004: #3 Cam Barker (#4 Andrew Ladd) (#9 Ladislav Smid)
2003: #7 Ryan Suter (#Andrei Kostitsyn) (#8 Brayden Coburn)
2002: #3 Jay Bouwmeester (#6 Scottie Upshall) (#4 Joni Pitkanen)
2001: #7 Mike Komisarek (#9 Tuomo Ruutu) (#12 Dan Hamuis)
2000: #4 Rostislav Klesla (#5 Raffi Torres) (#7 Lars Jonsson)

  • Dmen are taken in the top 5 9/11 years
  • Dmen are taken in the top 3 7/11 years
  • The next forward taken is only definitevely better than the dman 4/11 times
  • The next dman taken is better 6/11 times but only once are they subsequent picks (Hickey&Alzner)


Therefore dmen are taken high quite regularly and are more often than not (7/11) better than the next forward taken. That number probably isn't statistically significant.

Next, since players taken in a given spot are generally quite close in ranking to those around them, yet only the players taken after are options, I thought to look at how often a better player was missed in the next 3 picks. I decided arbitrarily that if 3 more teams passed on a better player, that hindsight is 20/20 but that player couldn't have been considered a better pick at the time.

Better Players Taken Within 3 Picks
2011: Too soon to say, possibly none (picks were Strome, Zibanejad, Schiefle)
2010: Too soon to say, possibly none (picks were Johansen, Neiderreiter, Connoly)
2009: Duchene, E. Kane (too soon for Brayden Schenn)
2008: (Pietrangelo?)
2007: Alzner, Gagner, Voracek
2006: Toews, Backstrom
2005: Price
2004: Ladd, Wheeler
2003: None
2002: None
2001: Ruutu
2000: Hartnell

  • A pick is arbitrarily defined as a failure for this purpose if more than 1/3 of the subsequent picks were better. If 1/3 or 0/3 were better, the pick is defined as a success even if the player taken is meh (Komisarek, Klesla)
  • 4/9 picks were failures
  • Too soon to say for 2010/2011 but there's a good chance that Larsson and Gudbranson end up being defined as successful picks (potentially making it 4/11 successes)


In conclusion, Dmen tend to be pretty safe picks where they're taken, and better players are taken with the subsequent 3 picks less often than I had previously expected before looking at the results. However, you have to keep in mind that many of these dmen are compared to forwards taken ahead of them. It's quite possible that teams don't take dmen until they reach a threshold where the talent dropoff after that player is more clear, making these numbers look more favorable than they should be.

Nihiliste is offline  
Old
03-08-2013, 01:10 PM
  #477
Nihiliste
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Nihiliste's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,417
vCash: 542
Is it worth it to tank?

1st overall picks: RNH, Hall, Tavares, Stamkos, P. Kane, EJ, Crosby, Ovechkin, Fleury, Nash, Kovalchuk, Dipietro
2nd overall picks: Landeskog, Seguin, Hedman, Doughty, JVR, J. Staal, Ryan, Malkin, E. Staal, Lehtonen, Spezza, Heatley
3rd overall picks: Huberdeau, Gudbranson, Duchene, Bogosian, Turris, Toews, JJ, Barker, Horton, Bouwmeester, Svitov, Gaborik
4th overall picks: Larsson, Johansen, E. Kane, Pietrangelo, Hickey, Backstrom, Pouliot, Ladd, Zherdev, Pitkanen, Weiss, Klesla
5th overall picks: Strome, Neiderreiter, B. Schenn, L. Schenn, Alzner, Kessel, Price, Wheeler, Vanek, Whitney, Chistov, Torres

Moral of the story, if you're not picking top 2/3, **** tanking.

Also note that a defensemen is literally NEVER the best pick out of the top 5 in the 11 years looked at here.

Nihiliste is offline  
Old
03-08-2013, 02:06 PM
  #478
Av-merican
@Av_merican
 
Av-merican's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: The Frozen Wasteland
Country: Scotland
Posts: 10,723
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nihiliste View Post
Is it worth it to tank?

1st overall picks: RNH, Hall, Tavares, Stamkos, P. Kane, EJ, Crosby, Ovechkin, Fleury, Nash, Kovalchuk, Dipietro
2nd overall picks: Landeskog, Seguin, Hedman, Doughty, JVR, J. Staal, Ryan, Malkin, E. Staal, Lehtonen, Spezza, Heatley
3rd overall picks: Huberdeau, Gudbranson, Duchene, Bogosian, Turris, Toews, JJ, Barker, Horton, Bouwmeester, Svitov, Gaborik
4th overall picks: Larsson, Johansen, E. Kane, Pietrangelo, Hickey, Backstrom, Pouliot, Ladd, Zherdev, Pitkanen, Weiss, Klesla
5th overall picks: Strome, Neiderreiter, B. Schenn, L. Schenn, Alzner, Kessel, Price, Wheeler, Vanek, Whitney, Chistov, Torres

Moral of the story, if you're not picking top 2/3, **** tanking.

Also note that a defensemen is literally NEVER the best pick out of the top 5 in the 11 years looked at here.
Tanking is sometimes necessary, but it doesn't substitute for front office competence. Tambellini's idiocy (although he's just a puppet for Lowe really) is proof positive of that.

For instance, I think the Preds would definitely benefit from bottoming out and getting another star. Right now that roster is basically Weber, Rinne, and a bunch of grinders. There's no other way they're going to significantly improve that roster unless they snag a bona fide star.

In any event, the Avs have "tanked" enough already. They need to take a step forward and possibly make the playoffs next season. And a smart GM will make a good pick no matter where he happens to land in the draft. The question is whether you believe Sherman/Pracey to be that guy. I have faith in Pracey at least.

Av-merican is offline  
Old
03-08-2013, 08:56 PM
  #479
PeterForsberg
Registered User
 
PeterForsberg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Laval, QC
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,347
vCash: 500
Might as well start picking, Mackinnon or Jones?

We are destined for either last place in the NHL or second to last. Our god awful management and coaching need to go, pronto.

So... Who is better for the Avs? Mack, Jones, Drouin, Barkov or Nichushkin?

PeterForsberg is offline  
Old
03-08-2013, 08:59 PM
  #480
skip2mybordeleau
Expected Regression
 
skip2mybordeleau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 5,943
vCash: 50
tank is contingent on today's game imo.

skip2mybordeleau is offline  
Old
03-10-2013, 11:49 PM
  #481
PAZ
.
 
PAZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,448
vCash: 50
Watched Jones tonight, he looks out of place in the WHL... in a good way.

Never saw him make one mistake, super poised with the puck, made simple but effective plays. I know basing it on one game isn't even a sample size, but whoever gets Jones is going to be getting a franchise defenseman.

PAZ is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 10:03 AM
  #482
avsfan09
Registered User
 
avsfan09's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Nova Scotia
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,026
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterForsberg View Post
We are destined for either last place in the NHL or second to last. Our god awful management and coaching need to go, pronto.

So... Who is better for the Avs? Mack, Jones, Drouin, Barkov or Nichushkin?
Jones is the best available in my oppinion but we definitely won't be last and probably won't even be a lottery team.

avsfan09 is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 11:22 AM
  #483
S E P H
@Krzysztof_WHL
 
S E P H's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Avs Country!
Country: Poland
Posts: 4,369
vCash: 50
Yeah we gotta start looking at players like Erne/Gauthier than Jones/Drouin.


Last edited by S E P H: 03-11-2013 at 11:42 AM. Reason: Added some wordz.
S E P H is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 11:29 AM
  #484
henchman24
#ImagineAvs
 
henchman24's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 10,745
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
Yeah we gotta look at players like Erne/Gauthier than Jones/Drouin.
This... it is much more likely that we pick in the 10-15 range than the 1-5 range. When healthy we are a fringe playoff team.

henchman24 is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 11:33 AM
  #485
Nihiliste
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Nihiliste's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,417
vCash: 542
I'm going to wait and see if we can actually win on the road before getting too optimistic. But I essentially agree looks like we could end up 8-12

Nihiliste is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 11:37 AM
  #486
Lonewolfe2015
Registered User
 
Lonewolfe2015's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 11,137
vCash: 239
Quote:
Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
This... it is much more likely that we pick in the 10-15 range than the 1-5 range. When healthy we are a fringe playoff team.
We're due for another significant injury, don't get your hopes up yet.

Lonewolfe2015 is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 11:46 AM
  #487
S E P H
@Krzysztof_WHL
 
S E P H's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Avs Country!
Country: Poland
Posts: 4,369
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
This... it is much more likely that we pick in the 10-15 range than the 1-5 range. When healthy we are a fringe playoff team.
I would LOVE to draft an Avs fan and hometown boy in Jones, but I think it is much more interesting in the 8th to 15th range. Considering how close the players are between 8ish to 20ish, what players will fall, or what players will rise. Even though I said all of that the player I still want around that range is Erne.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
We're due for another significant injury, don't get your hopes up yet.
Varlamov's groin hasn't been pulled......yet.

S E P H is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 11:46 AM
  #488
henchman24
#ImagineAvs
 
henchman24's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 10,745
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
We're due for another significant injury, don't get your hopes up yet.
Even with all the injuries we have had we would be the 8th pick right now with games in hand (1 point behind Philly with 3 games in hand, 1 point behind the NYI with 2 in hand). I don't see us falling to the top 3 at all. I think we will be in the 10-12 range when it is all said and done.

henchman24 is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 11:52 AM
  #489
Lonewolfe2015
Registered User
 
Lonewolfe2015's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 11,137
vCash: 239
Quote:
Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Even with all the injuries we have had we would be the 8th pick right now with games in hand (1 point behind Philly with 3 games in hand, 1 point behind the NYI with 2 in hand). I don't see us falling to the top 3 at all. I think we will be in the 10-12 range when it is all said and done.
Not disagreeing. But we're due for Varly or Duchy or even PAP to go down hard soon. If that's the case, we'll probably fall into the 5-7 range by season's end.

This team as it stands with even a decent coach is playoff caliber.

Lonewolfe2015 is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 12:14 PM
  #490
S E P H
@Krzysztof_WHL
 
S E P H's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Avs Country!
Country: Poland
Posts: 4,369
vCash: 50
So currently we are in 8th.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/

Based on these standings who would you guys pick?? I would personally choose Monahan if he fell out of the top 6/7.

S E P H is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 12:21 PM
  #491
henchman24
#ImagineAvs
 
henchman24's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 10,745
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
So currently we are in 8th.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/

Based on these standings who would you guys pick?? I would personally choose Monahan if he fell out of the top 6/7.
Monahan... Nurse would be really, really tempting though.

henchman24 is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 12:23 PM
  #492
AslanRH
Part of the Plan
 
AslanRH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Wyoming, USA
Country: United States
Posts: 4,441
vCash: 50
Any opinions on possibly finding a seller who will trade a LHD with good potential to be EJ's partner for our 1st (if in the 7-15 range)+ Jones/ depth defender/ or (sadly) McLeod or Elliot type player?

Thinking a more immediate return than a draft pick who may need a year or 2 to start much less be top line ready?

the player may be older than our core age group (27+), but could step in immediately and help this team in October 2013.

AslanRH is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 12:30 PM
  #493
Nihiliste
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Nihiliste's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,417
vCash: 542
Monahan would be a no brainer at 8th I think. Personally I feel like after Monahan is where there's a slight dropoff in caliber to the 8-15 range.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AslanRH View Post
Any opinions on possibly finding a seller who will trade a LHD with good potential to be EJ's partner for our 1st (if in the 7-15 range)+ Jones/ depth defender/ or (sadly) McLeod or Elliot type player?

Thinking a more immediate return than a draft pick who may need a year or 2 to start much less be top line ready?

the player may be older than our core age group (27+), but could step in immediately and help this team in October 2013.
Trading our 1st doesn't make sense unless we can show that we're going to play well with consistency before the deadline and then only for another young player 22/23 which I'm not certain that another team would be willing to do.

Nihiliste is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 12:35 PM
  #494
henchman24
#ImagineAvs
 
henchman24's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 10,745
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by AslanRH View Post
Any opinions on possibly finding a seller who will trade a LHD with good potential to be EJ's partner for our 1st (if in the 7-15 range)+ Jones/ depth defender/ or (sadly) McLeod or Elliot type player?

Thinking a more immediate return than a draft pick who may need a year or 2 to start much less be top line ready?

the player may be older than our core age group (27+), but could step in immediately and help this team in October 2013.
That package would probably only net a 'project' top 4 defensemen that really isn't ready. You won't get a Yandle or OEL caliber of player, you will get a Myers sort of player (at very best). A guy who has potential, but fell back to earth and needs a change to maximize his potential.

henchman24 is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 01:02 PM
  #495
GamingGiant
Registered User
 
GamingGiant's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Country: United States
Posts: 2,734
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
So currently we are in 8th.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/

Based on these standings who would you guys pick?? I would personally choose Monahan if he fell out of the top 6/7.
Based on their mock draft and who would be available at our pick it would be between Monahan and Nurse for me.

GamingGiant is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 01:22 PM
  #496
Ivan13
Avs/Habs fan
 
Ivan13's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Zagreb
Country: Croatia
Posts: 13,487
vCash: 50
Ideal scenario, we draft 30th and pick up Bo Horvat.

A guy can dream, right?

Ivan13 is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 01:28 PM
  #497
PAZ
.
 
PAZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,448
vCash: 50
I don't really want Monahan.

If we're in the 8-12 range i'd either want Nurse or Shinkaruk.

PAZ is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 01:30 PM
  #498
S E P H
@Krzysztof_WHL
 
S E P H's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Avs Country!
Country: Poland
Posts: 4,369
vCash: 50
Even though Nurse and Zadorov are great players, I wouldn't draft them in the top 10.

S E P H is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 01:30 PM
  #499
Jeff_Dyck_#1
Est. MMII
 
Jeff_Dyck_#1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: HF since 1998
Country: Serbia
Posts: 535
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
So currently we are in 8th.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/

Based on these standings who would you guys pick?? I would personally choose Monahan if he fell out of the top 6/7.
Alexander Wennberg

Jeff_Dyck_#1 is offline  
Old
03-11-2013, 01:32 PM
  #500
GeoffL19
Registered User
 
GeoffL19's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,976
vCash: 800
Monahan
Erne
Nurse
Shinkaruk
Gauthier
Rychel

Are all my favorites from the draft, that we CURRENTLY have a shot at drafting, based on that list.

GeoffL19 is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:19 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.