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Old
03-10-2013, 10:32 PM
  #126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elysian View Post
Elite goaltender versus poor defenseman and you don't understand the reasoning? Kari is a better goaltender than Neal ever was a winger in Dallas.
Yep, Joe's trade for Kari will always stand out larger than the Neal trade for me.

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03-10-2013, 11:24 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Elysian View Post
Elite goaltender versus poor defenseman and you don't understand the reasoning? Kari is a better goaltender than Neal ever was a winger in Dallas.
You've used the term "ever was in Dallas" numerous times now when referring to Neal, who was 23 at the time he was traded. That's a pretty disingenuous way to view his time in Dallas. He was clearly not a finished product. On the other hand, according to Nieuwendyk (and by extension his pro scouts) Goligoski was a finished product who would further bloom given a more prominent role.

The point in comparing these two trades is what was given up. If we traded Neal for Kari it would be a balanced trade. But, we essentially got Lehtonen for a 4th round pick. There was absolutely zero gamble given what we now know about Vishnevskiy's intentions. We gave up a 23 year old who scored 27 goals the season prior for that poor defenseman.

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Old
03-10-2013, 11:27 PM
  #128
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So trading for Kari was great, especially when the team knew Vish was heading to the KHL.

Trading James Neal for Goligoski in a deal where Neal wasn't even shopped for a guy that's a #5 on a contending team at best is ****ing horrible.

That in no way 'balances out' both trades. It isn't a balancing act in the NHL. You either make good moves or you don't. The James Neal trade was the worst trade in franchise history. Is the Kari trade the greatest in franchise history to you? Neal had 81 points, and we traded for a guy who sucks more with every game.

Yeah Cody Eakin is great, but Ribs has been great for Washington. That's a wash to me.

Derek Roy for Steve Ott. Good trade.

Kari for Vish? Same **** we did to Montreal when we got Ribeiro.

Signing Whitney and Jagr is good scouting? Are you kidding me? These are two HIGHLY proven vets in the NHL and every team knows what they bring to the table. Sorry, the scouts don't get that one.

Nystrom? Solid pickup.

Ryder for Cole? Sorry, but it's still a bad move to me. Cole is a FANTASTIC player, but the value we got for Ryder could've been higher at the deadline. Dispute it all you want, but history repeats itself and rentals are more expensive at the deadline.

Our pro scouts are mediocre.

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Old
03-11-2013, 12:11 AM
  #129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cin View Post
So trading for Kari was great, especially when the team knew Vish was heading to the KHL.

Trading James Neal for Goligoski in a deal where Neal wasn't even shopped for a guy that's a #5 on a contending team at best is ****ing horrible.

That in no way 'balances out' both trades. It isn't a balancing act in the NHL. You either make good moves or you don't. The James Neal trade was the worst trade in franchise history. Is the Kari trade the greatest in franchise history to you? Neal had 81 points, and we traded for a guy who sucks more with every game.

Yeah Cody Eakin is great, but Ribs has been great for Washington. That's a wash to me.

Derek Roy for Steve Ott. Good trade.

Kari for Vish? Same **** we did to Montreal when we got Ribeiro.

Signing Whitney and Jagr is good scouting? Are you kidding me? These are two HIGHLY proven vets in the NHL and every team knows what they bring to the table. Sorry, the scouts don't get that one.

Nystrom? Solid pickup.

Ryder for Cole? Sorry, but it's still a bad move to me. Cole is a FANTASTIC player, but the value we got for Ryder could've been higher at the deadline. Dispute it all you want, but history repeats itself and rentals are more expensive at the deadline.

Our pro scouts are mediocre.
I would love to see the sources again that stated some GM's didn't even know Neal was available, anyone have them?

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Old
03-11-2013, 01:47 AM
  #130
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I don't have the quote, but I remember several GMs complaining they didn't even know Neal was available and that had they known they would have made an offer that in their opinions was worth more than Goligoski.

As for good amateur scouting this is a little old but the math is probably pretty close to the same, though I imagine the 2003 draft was an outlier for NHL players making in the league just as the 1999 was the same for the sheer number of busts.

Draft Success

Approximately 19% of all drafted players play 200 games in the NHL. Of those 63% are 1st round selections. 25% are drafted in the 2nd round. You can expect about 12% from the 3rd round and beyond. Due to their age and strictly the four year time span we are speaking of with Joe Niewendyk at the helm it's hard to draw firm conclusions. Still we can make some assumptions and here are a few.

Eakin was taken in the 3rd round, 85th overall in 2009. He's only played 54 total NHL games but I think we all agree he'll get to 200 barring any type of career threatening injury. He's a guy Dallas has scouted extensively and one the amateur scouts have wanted for years. The fact that he was the target of the Ribiero trade speaks to their assessment of him as a player and absolutely should be put in the nebulous amateur scouting "win column."

Tomas Vincour was taken 129th overall in the 5th round of the 2009 draft. He's played 79 NHL games and while he's probably not top six material anyone who makes the NHL from that far down is a win for amateur scouts. Probability of a good career with 200 NHL games, fairly high.

Those two alone mean that the "Dallas draft" of 2009 is a success and we haven't talked about Reilly Smith or Chiasson.

Assuming the 19% is true, Dallas drafted 25 total players from 2009-2013, of which they should get 4.75 NHL players. We're not including undrafted free agents yet. Eakin came via trade so he counts which brings the total to 4.94 players. Looking at my previous list Chiasson, Smith, Vincour, Guptill, Nemeth, Campbell, Stransky, Ritchie, Oleksiak, and Shore. That's 10 players basically doubling the average success rate of NHL draftees. I said 70% of those guys would make it still 1.5 times above average.

I imagine the win rate for undrafted guys is even worse but of Roussell, Jordie Benn, Garbutt, Fraser, Dillon, Peters, Fortunus, Legace, Tousignant, Coyle, King, Labrie and Morin. Their early hit rate appears to be 38% though I don't think Jordie Benn sticks long term or that Garbutt is an amazing success even though a decent 4th liner isn't anything to be ashamed of.

All that is to say the amateur scouts are performing way above average especially compared to the drafting and free agent contracts handed out in the early 2000s or before. There's really no comparison of the prospect pool now versus 5 years ago.


Last edited by Hull Fan: 03-11-2013 at 01:53 AM.
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Old
03-11-2013, 09:13 AM
  #131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cin View Post
So trading for Kari was great, especially when the team knew Vish was heading to the KHL.

Trading James Neal for Goligoski in a deal where Neal wasn't even shopped for a guy that's a #5 on a contending team at best is ****ing horrible.

That in no way 'balances out' both trades. It isn't a balancing act in the NHL. You either make good moves or you don't. The James Neal trade was the worst trade in franchise history. Is the Kari trade the greatest in franchise history to you? Neal had 81 points, and we traded for a guy who sucks more with every game.

Yeah Cody Eakin is great, but Ribs has been great for Washington. That's a wash to me.


Derek Roy for Steve Ott. Good trade.

Kari for Vish? Same **** we did to Montreal when we got Ribeiro.

Signing Whitney and Jagr is good scouting? Are you kidding me? These are two HIGHLY proven vets in the NHL and every team knows what they bring to the table. Sorry, the scouts don't get that one.

Nystrom? Solid pickup.

Ryder for Cole? Sorry, but it's still a bad move to me. Cole is a FANTASTIC player, but the value we got for Ryder could've been higher at the deadline. Dispute it all you want, but history repeats itself and rentals are more expensive at the deadline.

Our pro scouts are mediocre.
So are you basing this strictly of point production? Because from what i have seen Eakin is everything we wanted from Ribs but never received.

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03-11-2013, 10:04 AM
  #132
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Lol what?

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Old
03-11-2013, 10:19 AM
  #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cin View Post
So trading for Kari was great, especially when the team knew Vish was heading to the KHL.

Trading James Neal for Goligoski in a deal where Neal wasn't even shopped for a guy that's a #5 on a contending team at best is ****ing horrible.

That in no way 'balances out' both trades. It isn't a balancing act in the NHL. You either make good moves or you don't. The James Neal trade was the worst trade in franchise history. Is the Kari trade the greatest in franchise history to you? Neal had 81 points, and we traded for a guy who sucks more with every game.

Yeah Cody Eakin is great, but Ribs has been great for Washington. That's a wash to me.

Derek Roy for Steve Ott. Good trade.

Kari for Vish? Same **** we did to Montreal when we got Ribeiro.

Signing Whitney and Jagr is good scouting? Are you kidding me? These are two HIGHLY proven vets in the NHL and every team knows what they bring to the table. Sorry, the scouts don't get that one.

Nystrom? Solid pickup.

Ryder for Cole? Sorry, but it's still a bad move to me. Cole is a FANTASTIC player, but the value we got for Ryder could've been higher at the deadline. Dispute it all you want, but history repeats itself and rentals are more expensive at the deadline.

Our pro scouts are mediocre.
Who is our Malkin? And when did we adopt Pittsburgh's system? Expecting 81 points from Neal with Dallas is asinine. Neal never even matched Jamie Benn's point total last season when he was in a Stars uniform, but because he's producing in a run and gun system, surprise surprise, we magically lost a 40g scorer. That level of cognitive dissonance has no place here.

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03-11-2013, 10:46 AM
  #134
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Originally Posted by Elysian View Post
Who is our Malkin? And when did we adopt Pittsburgh's system? Expecting 81 points from Neal with Dallas is asinine. Neal never even matched Jamie Benn's point total last season when he was in a Stars uniform, but because he's producing in a run and gun system, surprise surprise, we magically lost a 40g scorer. That level of cognitive dissonance has no place here.
You have a good argument- one I've heard several times over- but, fact remains that one never knows if Neal could've gotten over his issues in Dallas (around his slump in 2010-11, most here speculated that it had to do with his confidence). We could've had a 30 goal scorer in him, if not a 40 goal scorer. Hard to tell that one too, but bottomline is that we clearly lost that trade.

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03-11-2013, 11:22 AM
  #135
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Steve Montador on waivers today. Once upon a time he was a guy I really liked as a depth, right shot D, but he's coming off a serious concussion, and he hasn't played since last year's playoffs. He also missed over 20 games for an "upper body injury" last regular season, and that can be code sometimes for a concussion as well. He's also signed for 2 more years.

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03-11-2013, 11:23 AM
  #136
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Interesting lines with Benn and Morrow out:

Quote:
Mark Stepneski ‏@StarsInsideEdge

Lines: Whitney-Roy-cole; Smith-eakin-Jagr;Fraser-Roussel-Eriksson; Nystrom-Fiddler-Garbutt
So they are going to stick with the familiarity of Whitney and Cole it seems. Man ... I love, love the idea of Smith and Eakin with Jagr. Who knows if they are considering that long term, but I wouldn't exactly hate a line of Roussel-Benn-Eriksson down the line.

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03-11-2013, 12:40 PM
  #137
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Originally Posted by StarsFan74 View Post
You have a good argument- one I've heard several times over- but, fact remains that one never knows if Neal could've gotten over his issues in Dallas (around his slump in 2010-11, most here speculated that it had to do with his confidence). We could've had a 30 goal scorer in him, if not a 40 goal scorer. Hard to tell that one too, but bottomline is that we clearly lost that trade.
Never argued we didn't lose that trade, but the loss is extremely overblown on this board. Saying or pro scouts are dirt because of one bad trade is idiotic, especially when the argument hinges on ignoring any good work they've done. They've done a lot more good than bad.

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03-11-2013, 12:41 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
Interesting lines with Benn and Morrow out:



So they are going to stick with the familiarity of Whitney and Cole it seems. Man ... I love, love the idea of Smith and Eakin with Jagr. Who knows if they are considering that long term, but I wouldn't exactly hate a line of Roussel-Benn-Eriksson down the line.
That sounds excellent.

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03-11-2013, 12:56 PM
  #139
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It doesn't sound like anything long term since Benn's wrist isn't broken, but just before he comes back Roy, Cole, Whitney, Jagr, and Eriksson better surround themselves in pillows. Through 24 games, Dallas still hasn't iced their full compliment of top forwards. Just when Whitney looks to be getting back in .... sucks.

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03-11-2013, 01:02 PM
  #140
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GM Joe on the hit:

Quote:
Mark Stepneski ‏@StarsInsideEdge

GM Joe said league didn't have problem with Hanzal hit on Benn.
Didn't want to make an extra post for this in the injury thread, but this sounds like he might be more questionable than doubtful:

Quote:
Mark Stepneski ‏@StarsInsideEdge

GM Joe said there is a possibility Jamie Benn could play tomorrow.

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03-11-2013, 01:15 PM
  #141
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The league made the right decision.

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Old
03-11-2013, 01:19 PM
  #142
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Yeah, hit didn't seem all that bad to me. Was just happy to see Benn pop right back up afterwards.

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03-11-2013, 01:38 PM
  #143
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This is how I felt a the quarter mark of the season:

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Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
The Dallas Stars are no better or worse than I expected this year. The negative are obvious, and we've all debated them.

There are at least some positives. Dallas is 2-1-1 at home, and they're actually close to respectable (3-4) on the road. After this 3 game road trip starting on next Tuesday, Dallas goes on a run of 14 home games in the next 20 all the way to the trade deadline. They'll need to build up a substantial cushion in this part of the season (roughly 50% of the schedule) to have a solid chance at the playoffs.

Despite my doubts they an do it, all I really want to see is Dallas playoff hockey. I don't want to invest in the belief they can get it done when the problems of the past 4 years continue to plague them today. Actually believing they can get it done only to be crushed with another 9-10 finish would be unbearable. I'm hopeful but not exactly optimistic, and I still think the quality of trade assets Dallas has may be too good to pass up. It'll be interesting to see how this thing plays out.
Dallas finished 6-5-1 after 12 games, and they went 6-5-1 in the next 12 games. They really didn't make up any ground at the half way point of the season.

The team sits 10th in the West and 18th in the league. Based on points % they are 9th in the West and 17th in the league. They've actually lost ground in this regard since the quarter mark of the season.

That said, there is much more to be optimistic about right now. They've played so much better as a team, and I think had Lehtonen been healthy we'd have seen a much improved record in the 2nd quarter of the season. Mark Stepneski ran the numbers if you're interested in the details, but this is a team trending upwards.

The 3rd quarter of the season will determine how their season ends. They have 9 of 12 games at home, and we've seen in the past where the Stars have blown their season with poor home stands late in the year. They need to pick up points in March when April is so road heavy.

I still wouldn't call myself optimistic the team makes the playoffs, but I definitely feel like the chances of them getting in are better now.

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03-11-2013, 01:40 PM
  #144
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Never argued we didn't lose that trade, but the loss is extremely overblown on this board.
I think the "overblowing" of that debacle is the continuing mediocrity from Goligoski and the team in general. Should the status-quo continue, that trade will continue getting scorned by fans and press alike, and might I say, it wouldn't be undeserved by any means.

Quote:
Saying or pro scouts are dirt because of one bad trade is idiotic, especially when the argument hinges on ignoring any good work they've done. They've done a lot more good than bad.
I don't think they're dirt, but I don't think they've done a "lot more" good than bad. I am on-board with most of Cin's argument from last night, save for the "wash" comment on the Ribs for Eakin trade. It was a trade that benefited both teams and I'm happy with that. The Pardy and Woywitka acquisitions were also thanks to our pro-scouts.

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03-11-2013, 01:45 PM
  #145
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The 3rd quarter of the season will determine how their season ends. They have 9 of 12 games at home, and we've seen in the past where the Stars have blown their season with poor home stands late in the year. They need to pick up points in March when April is so road heavy.
There it is! The W:L ratio during that stretch will decide if they deserve making the playoffs or not. A similar stat (12-10-2) in the the 2nd half is going to see them finish 9th/10th yet again.

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03-11-2013, 01:47 PM
  #146
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Originally Posted by Elysian View Post
Who is our Malkin? And when did we adopt Pittsburgh's system? Expecting 81 points from Neal with Dallas is asinine. Neal never even matched Jamie Benn's point total last season when he was in a Stars uniform, but because he's producing in a run and gun system, surprise surprise, we magically lost a 40g scorer. That level of cognitive dissonance has no place here.
It's not about having a Malkin or playing their system. The fact still remains that James Neal was worth at least double the return we got for him.

Saying the Ribs trade is a wash means it was great for both teams. Eakin is a stellar player and he's going to do great things here.

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03-11-2013, 01:49 PM
  #147
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Also, let's say Neal was shopped around the league. Do any of you honestly believe Alex Goligoski was the best we could get?

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03-11-2013, 02:09 PM
  #148
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Fistric got suspended for much less last season. The difference? Niederreiter(the guy he hit) ended up with a concussion, where as Benn did not. Sadly, thats how the NHL looks at things these days.

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03-11-2013, 02:09 PM
  #149
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There it is! The W:L ratio during that stretch will decide if they deserve making the playoffs or not. A similar stat (12-10-2) in the the 2nd half is going to see them finish 9th/10th yet again.
I agree. According to Mirtle's estimate that it will take 55 points to get in .... Dallas needs about two extra wins in that span. Realistically though, I'd feel more comfortable with 15 wins out of the next 24. I know that's going to be difficult, but they could fall short of that mark if they could manage to sprinkle in a few more loser points.

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03-11-2013, 02:24 PM
  #150
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Fistric got suspended for much less last season. The difference? Niederreiter(the guy he hit) ended up with a concussion, where as Benn did not. Sadly, thats how the NHL looks at things these days.
Fistric's hit was worse.

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