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2013: Finally putting to bed the idea that the Pens draft poorly.

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Old
03-11-2013, 10:23 PM
  #1
Rowdy Roddy Peeper
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2013: Finally putting to bed the idea that the Pens draft poorly.

We've all had an issue or two with our drafting. Some wish we'd draft more forwards, some wish we'd swing for the fences more often, and some wish we'd dip into the Euro pool more frequently (yo).

But this season is starting to show that the first 5 drafts under Shero have yielded a fair number of NHLers and promising young players:

'06: Staal and Strait
'07: Bortuzzo, Muzzin, and Jeffrey
'08: nada (no draft picks 'til the 4th round)
'09: Despres
'10: Bennett

Staal's a star (pretty much a gimme pick, but still). Bennett and Despres are already playing great with some high-end potential, and Muzzin, Strait, and Bortuzzo look like they could become real quality defenders. Jeffrey's a utility guy, but an NHLer nonetheless.

And that's not counting the players who still have NHL potential but are taking longer development paths (Samuelsson, Hanowski, Agostino, etc.). Overall, especially considering our perennial low selections, I think we've done a fair bit better than our draft detractors would suggest.

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03-11-2013, 10:26 PM
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Shero's certainly been money in the 1st round lately.

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03-11-2013, 10:30 PM
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Eh... that list is pretty underwhelming, IMO.

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03-11-2013, 10:33 PM
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Darth Vitale
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Yah, so many teams picking in the late 20s the last few years, did way better than we did. So many household names, so little time to name them all.

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03-11-2013, 10:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
Yah, so many teams picking in the late 20s the last few years, did way better than we did. So many household names, so little time to name them all.
Yeah, you know, Eberle, Pacioretty, and... (checks Wikipedia) does Etem count?

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03-11-2013, 10:51 PM
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Originally Posted by BigBenSF View Post
Yeah, you know, Eberle, Pacioretty, and... (checks Wikipedia) does Etem count?
Only one of them counts.

Eberle - 22nd (we gave the 29th pick to ATL for Hossa and a Cup run; they picked a scrub)
Etem - picked 29th and no reason to think he's better than Bennett based on games so far.

Pacioretty and Perron were both available the year we took Esposito so you could argue that was a mistake, however we flipped Espo and a pick to get Hossa so nearly turned into 7 years of winger paradise. Call that one a wash because chances are good we would've flipped either of the other two guys at that time also.

Meantime Despres is one of the very best rookie D out there this year and he was picked 30th so... I'd say Shero nailed it on the Bennett and Despres picks.

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03-11-2013, 10:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
Meantime Despres is one of the very best rookie D out there this year and he was picked 30th so... I'd say Shero nailed it on the Bennett and Despres picks.
I mean I guess he still had to pick him, but that was more of a case of a player falling into their laps than anything else. Despres came into the draft as a top-10 prospect, if memory serves, and got passed on all the way down to the Pens pick at 30. They were extremely lucky to get him, I don't think it really had much to do with Shero and the scouting department than it did with having a top-10 prospect on the board at pick 30. By far the BPA.

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03-11-2013, 11:00 PM
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Wouldn't be surprised that the 6th Round pick this last draft Anton Zlobin is a real steal.

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03-11-2013, 11:00 PM
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Darth Vitale
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Shero is an evil genius... convincing those other GMs that Despres was a goofy, Elmer-looking bum. Then drafted him to their rage.

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03-11-2013, 11:16 PM
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Rowdy Roddy Peeper
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Originally Posted by turd View Post
I mean I guess he still had to pick him, but that was more of a case of a player falling into their laps than anything else. Despres came into the draft as a top-10 prospect, if memory serves, and got passed on all the way down to the Pens pick at 30. They were extremely lucky to get him, I don't think it really had much to do with Shero and the scouting department than it did with having a top-10 prospect on the board at pick 30. By far the BPA.
Nope. Check out Bob McKenzie's draft ranking based on the consensus opinion from 10 NHL scouts:

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?fid=11892

Despres ranked 18th there, and ranked everywhere from 12th to 33rd among the scouting services.

Second of all, that argument wouldn't fly even if Despres had been a consensus top 10 pick. Plenty of other teams had the opportunity to draft Despres and didn't...Shero did. That's what matters.

Quote:
Originally Posted by turd View Post
Eh... that list is pretty underwhelming, IMO.
Feel free to list all the other teams who have definitively fared better over that span, and keep in mind where they were drafting and how many picks they had.

People don't have much perspective about just how many useful NHLers other teams are getting via the draft.


Last edited by Rowdy Roddy Peeper: 03-11-2013 at 11:28 PM.
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Old
03-11-2013, 11:47 PM
  #11
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Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
Nope. Check out Bob McKenzie's draft ranking based on the consensus opinion from 10 NHL scouts:

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?fid=11892

Despres ranked 18th there, and ranked everywhere from 12th to 33rd among the scouting services.

Second of all, that argument wouldn't fly even if Despres had been a consensus top 10 pick. Plenty of other teams had the opportunity to draft Despres and didn't...Shero did. That's what matters.
I said he still had to make the pick, so I'm at least giving him credit for actually doing it. If I recall though, Despres was pretty highly regarded then slipped up a little in rankings, but I don't think many people saw him falling to 30. And when he did land at 30, he was definitely the best player left, so it wasn't really a difficult selection to make. I don't think it had much to do with scouting and Shero being savvy than it did with getting lucky to be able to draft that player. There's nothing wrong with that, but I'm not sure I'd concede that making that choice was due to Shero's drafting prowess.

Quote:
Feel free to list all the other teams who have definitively fared better over that span, and keep in mind where they were drafting and how many picks they had.

People don't have much perspective about just how many useful NHLers other teams are getting via the draft.
Aside from Staal, Despres, and Bennett, the rest of those guys are 'tweeners. But really, my complaint isn't necessarily about who they drafted, it's about some of the guys they passed on, and the fact that he's virtually drained the forward prospect pool.

Also I'm not too interested in doing a team-by-team rundown of players drafted since 2006.

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Old
03-11-2013, 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by turd View Post
I said he still had to make the pick, so I'm at least giving him credit for actually doing it. If I recall though, Despres was pretty highly regarded then slipped up a little in rankings, but I don't think many people saw him falling to 30. And when he did land at 30, he was definitely the best player left, so it wasn't really a difficult selection to make. I don't think it had much to do with scouting and Shero being savvy than it did with getting lucky to be able to draft that player. There's nothing wrong with that, but I'm not sure I'd concede that making that choice was due to Shero's drafting prowess.
If he was definitely the best player left, he would've been picked by one of the many teams that passed on him. Where the scouting services ranked Despres really couldn't be less relevant.

Quote:
Aside from Staal, Despres, and Bennett, the rest of those guys are 'tweeners. But really, my complaint isn't necessarily about who they drafted, it's about some of the guys they passed on, and the fact that he's virtually drained the forward prospect pool.

Also I'm not too interested in doing a team-by-team rundown of players drafted since 2006.
Your choice, but if you don't want to bother checking how other teams have fared, you don't have the perspective to evaluate properly.

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03-11-2013, 11:59 PM
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I am not sure many ever said that Shero drafted poorly. At least I never did. I said the opposite actually. The concern is the concentration on defense, especially last draft not taking Forsberg when available. You can not argue with taking the best player available at pick 27-30. But 8th overall there definately were other directions you could go than defense yet again.

Had Shero taken Forsberg with that pick I am sure people would have been very happy with his drafting overall.

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03-12-2013, 12:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan View Post
I am not sure many ever said that Shero drafted poorly. At least I never did. I said the opposite actually. The concern is the concentration on defense, especially last draft not taking Forsberg when available. You can not argue with taking the best player available at pick 27-30. But 8th overall there definately were other directions you could go than defense yet again.

Had Shero taken Forsberg with that pick I am sure people would have been very happy with his drafting overall.
I thought it was Grigs we were supposed to take

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03-12-2013, 12:10 AM
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I kinda agree with you RRP, in general.

But with that said, I think it is fair to point out that Bennett is the only forward here with a top6 prayer, and very few picks have been made on any forwards with hands to even potentially make it. In that sense 2012 was a bit of a detour with Zlobin, The Latvian King, Sundqvist, Marcantuoni etc, so maybe there's a bit of a change.

If you do the same list for Caps, Bruins, Sens, Devils, Stars, Ducks and Blackhawks for instance (all teams who have also been factors in the playoffs), I don't think you can really say that we are coming out on top. Haven't gone down the lists really, but I really don't think we stand out in any particular way.

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Old
03-12-2013, 12:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
If he was definitely the best player left, he would've been picked by one of the many teams that passed on him. Where the scouting services ranked Despres really couldn't be less relevant.
I looked at about 20 mock drafts from 2009 and I'd say 80% of them had Despres going top-25. Several had him as high as 12th or 14th. So I'd say general consensus was that he wouldn't be around at the Pens slot. He fit a need, he was available, he fell to us, and Shero took him. Credit to Shero, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. I just think there was an incredible stroke of luck involved, and there's nothing wrong with that at all.

Quote:
Your choice, but if you don't want to bother checking how other teams have fared, you don't have the perspective to evaluate properly.

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03-12-2013, 12:33 AM
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RRP has been the MVP of optimism. It's nice for a change to get some positive stuff going on. I actually fully agree with you, too.

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Old
03-12-2013, 12:52 AM
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I love the Pens, and I always want the best for our players, so it is impossible for me to be anything other than optimistic overall.


That being said, the best way to objectively and honestly rate our drafting is to compare ourselves to other organizations. And in that regard, I'm not going to say we're great or we stink or anything of that sort. What I can say is: I do not believe, when looking at it objectively, that we rank in the top-5 or 10 teams in terms of drafting, and traditionally, we have been below average, up until at least 2008, aside from getting Letang in the 3rd round in 2005, which was a steal. (and you have to consider trading away picks for guys who aren't part of the organization long-term as part of the poor drafting record)

Now, we will see from 2009 and 2010 on, over the next couple of years, and how we perform in 2013, we will see if we have gone to a higher level. My guess is we have improved significantly. Adding some people to our scouting staff, doing a better job with guys developing players, and not trading away quite so many draft picks. I'd like to see us be known to be one of the top-5 or 10 teams in the draft, such as teams like Detroit, Nashville, Ottawa and some others.

We can't always be #1 at everything, but with our ownership group and deep pockets; great organizational structure and culture; an organization that scouts/executives should be excited to be a part of; allowing our prospects to develop well with good coaching, a winning environment, being able to play in the playoffs (WBS has been very good in this regard) and not rushing them; and being ahead of the curve in medical/fitness/nutrition/teaching elements, there is no reason why we shouldn't be able to rise to being one of THE better or best teams in drafting and developing players. I'll await that goal with excitement, but it's a tad premature to pat ourselves on the back for that just yet.

p.s. and the thread title implies that the 2013 draft will be a turning point for establishing ourselves as a great drafting team. Although I know that's not exactly what you meant with your title, but I will hope that you are right. This could be a draft where, if we keep most/all of our picks, we can cement ourselves as an ongoing cup contender for many years. I hope this is indeed prophetic

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03-12-2013, 01:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Tender Rip View Post
If you do the same list for Caps, Bruins, Sens, Devils, Stars, Ducks and Blackhawks for instance (all teams who have also been factors in the playoffs), I don't think you can really say that we are coming out on top. Haven't gone down the lists really, but I really don't think we stand out in any particular way.
Because I'm bored and have some free time ... From the 2006 draft to 2010, players who have played at least 80 career games or are close to full time NHLers this season;

Caps:
2006 - Backstrom, Varlamov, Neuvirth, Perreault
2007 - Alzner
2008 - Carlson, Holtby
2009 - Johannson, Orlov, Eakin
2010 - Kuznetsov (widely considered the best prospect outside the NHL)

Bruins:
2006 - Kessel, Lucic, Marchand
2007 - None
2008 - None
2009 - Caron
2010 - Seguin

(of note, 2011 pick Hamilton is a regular this year)

Hawks:
2006 - Toews
2007 - Kane
2008 - None
2009 - Kruger
2010 - None

(of note, 2011 picks Saad and Shaw are regulars this year)

Sens:
2006 - Foligno, Daugavins, Condra
2007 - O'Brien
2008 - Karlsson, Wiercioch, Smith
2009 - Cowen, Silfverberg, Lehner
2010 - None

Devils:
2006 - Zharkov
2007 - Palmeiri, Halischuk
2008 - Tedenby, Henrique
2009 - Josefson
2010 - None

(Of note, 2011 pick Larsson is a NHL regular)

Flyers:
2006 - Giroux, Nodl
2007 - VanRiemsdyk
2008 - Sbisa, Rinaldo
2009 - None
2010 - None

(Of note, 2011 pick Couturier is a NHL regular)

That's six teams that drafted around where the Pens have drafted since 2006, and their drafting track record.

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03-12-2013, 01:12 AM
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I looked at about 20 mock drafts from 2009 and I'd say 80% of them had Despres going top-25. Several had him as high as 12th or 14th. So I'd say general consensus was that he wouldn't be around at the Pens slot. He fit a need, he was available, he fell to us, and Shero took him. Credit to Shero, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. I just think there was an incredible stroke of luck involved, and there's nothing wrong with that at all.



Some folks just can't ever admit to being wrong. They find any way they can to justify their position-but it never stops smelling like turd to the rest of us....

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03-12-2013, 01:21 AM
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Ok, now that it's late, there's nothing on tv, so I'll check on a handful of teams. And these are just guys on their roster or someone else's roster today, not even counting their prospects. And I'll probably even miss a few.

These four teams, along with Pittsburgh, were in the top 5 in 2006.

Blues: Erik Johnson (COL), Berglund, Eller (MON), Cole, Perron, Palushaj (COL), Peluso (WPG), Pietrangelo, Allen (CGY), Schwartz, Tarasenko

Chicago: Toews, Kane, Kruger, Shaw, Saad

Washington: Backstrom, Varlamov (COL), Neuvirth, Perreault, Alzner, Holtby, Johansson...also have Kuznetsov and Forsberg in the top 25 prospects list in the entire league.

Boston: Kessel (TOR), Lucic, Marchand, McQuaid, Caron, Seguin, Hamilton

.................................................. ..

Just for fun:

Philadelphia: Giroux, Nodl (CAR), JVR (TOR), Maroon (ANA), Sbisa (ANA), Bourdon, Rinaldo, Wellwood, McGinn, Couturier

edit...I see Sidney the Kidney did a very similar list. And look, we still have several prospects that haven't even touched NHL ice yet in the regular season. So it's not like there's no hope, and that certainly wasn't what I was trying to imply. The other teams I listed, though, have some very impressive players that they've drafted since '06.

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03-12-2013, 01:27 AM
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Originally Posted by jmelm View Post
p.s. and the thread title implies that the 2013 draft will be a turning point for establishing ourselves as a great drafting team. Although I know that's not exactly what you meant with your title, but I will hope that you are right. This could be a draft where, if we keep most/all of our picks, we can cement ourselves as an ongoing cup contender for many years. I hope this is indeed prophetic
I didn't see that implied at all actually . More than doing anything to our 'standing' as a great drafting team, I think the deadline and draft will be Shero re-enforcing his standing as someone who wants to win.

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03-12-2013, 01:31 AM
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And let's not all buy into the Detriot drafting mystic based on what happened 10 or 15 years ago when they had the best scout in Europe. Other than Kindle finally starting to break through, name me a top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman since 2005.... Oh that's right, there isn't one.

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03-12-2013, 01:37 AM
  #24
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Originally Posted by Sidney the Kidney View Post
Hawks:
2006 - Toews
2007 - Kane
2008 - None
2009 - Kruger
2010 - None

(of note, 2011 picks Saad and Shaw are regulars this year)
Thanks for the lists .
Just felt compelled to say that as regards the Hawks, I think their depth is a very strong reason you cannot list more names, because there are lots of guys in Rockford who would have gotten call-ups with us. Guys like Morin, Pirri, Hayes to mention a few.

But otherwise I think your post underlined my point.

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03-12-2013, 01:41 AM
  #25
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And let's not all buy into the Detriot drafting mystic based on what happened 10 or 15 years ago when they had the best scout in Europe. Other than Kindle finally starting to break through, name me a top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman since 2005.... Oh that's right, there isn't one.
Brendan Smith is a stud.

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