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Old
03-12-2013, 09:44 AM
  #101
Bleach Clean
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EDM is a very good trading partner for VAN right now. They have an expiring contract in Gagner and a great need for Dmen. The Canucks have Ballard and Raymond that they can easily deal. The former for obvious reasons, and the latter because I don't think converting to C long-term is what the coaching staff wants for him. As a winger, I don't see how he stays with the club past this season.

Then there's FLA, who also would covet Raymond as well as being the default talking destination for Luongo. They're out of it now. It's their offseason, essentially. So if they want Luongo, the deal could happen at any point, which Raymond might help solidify based on future projections of losing him.

TBay is at 21 points. FLA at 20. If it's over for FLA, TBay is only a shade above them. Of course, the offensive talent on that team prevents people from writing them off entirely. Still, I think they're done. So what do they do? 85 goals for and they're done at the half way point? Something has got to change here.

The biggest wildcard is PHI. They could make excellent trading partners if they stay on the bubble near the deadline and decide to jettison Bryz. They could take on Luongo and run a tandem, then buy out Bryz at the end of the year... It just depends on how badly they want to ensure that goaltending isn't a negative factor for them.



Guys on EDM that make sense for value: Gagner, PRV and Petry

PHI: Couturier, Voracek, Read, Laughton

FLA: Goc, Matthias, Bjugstad, Shore, Petrovic.

TBay: Connolly and picks.

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03-12-2013, 09:46 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Nuckles37 View Post
I'd take MSL.
Our team is in win-now mode, and prospects don't always pan out (and take a while to develop).
Do you truly believe that the current Canuck's core is good enough to go through 4 play-off rounds and win the Cup? The core players need to be changed, and bring in players to compliment the Sedins, Bieksa, and Hamhuis, who will last those tough play-off rounds. If Burrows, Kesler, Edler, Schnieder could return those types of players (one center and one defense-man) than it should be done now, or this summer. NTC's aside.

People continue to harp on Canuck's players that are not the core members, thinking that will make some sort of magical difference. It won't. It's the core, and their play, who wins cups.

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03-12-2013, 09:51 AM
  #103
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Is Luongo waiving for Edmonton now? I don't see how that solves any problems for him, they're just as remote from Florida and I hear they have a young starter who is every bit as good as Cory

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03-12-2013, 09:56 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Alflives View Post
Do you truly believe that the current Canuck's core is good enough to go through 4 play-off rounds and win the Cup? The core players need to be changed, and bring in players to compliment the Sedins, Bieksa, and Hamhuis, who will last those tough play-off rounds. If Burrows, Kesler, Edler, Schnieder could return those types of players (one center and one defense-man) than it should be done now, or this summer. NTC's aside.

People continue to harp on Canuck's players that are not the core members, thinking that will make some sort of magical difference. It won't. It's the core, and their play, who wins cups.
Any talk of trading Kesler is asanine. So soon people forget. This guy is precisely what the team needs in the playoffs. Kesler is beat down as much as he is because he plays so hard. The guy is tenacious, fearless. There are very few players id contemplate moving him for and I certainly would not float him out in trade proposals. Burrows too - there'd have to be massive overpayment coming back. These are the heart and soul guys that drive the team in the post season.

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03-12-2013, 10:01 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by StanGrossman View Post
Any talk of trading Kesler is asanine. So soon people forget. This guy is precisely what the team needs in the playoffs. Kesler is beat down as much as he is because he plays so hard. The guy is tenacious, fearless. There are very few players id contemplate moving him for and I certainly would not float him out in trade proposals. Burrows too - there'd have to be massive overpayment coming back. These are the heart and soul guys that drive the team in the post season.
Kesler's playoff prowess is extremely overrated. One legendary series against the Predators, but pretty ordinary other than that.

I wish the Canucks had explored trading Kesler before his no-trade kicked in. Imagine the return. I think his value has taken a hit, and his NTC likely renders all trade discussion moot.

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03-12-2013, 10:02 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
Is Luongo waiving for Edmonton now? I don't see how that solves any problems for him, they're just as remote from Florida and I hear they have a young starter who is every bit as good as Cory

My post was a bit confusing there. It's not just about Luongo. Raymond and Ballard make sense for them too, if they know they're going to lose Gagner, that is. They have big raises coming to Hall and Eberle next year.

Ballard to EDM makes great sense. In fact, I'm not sure what the hold up is...? This trade should have been done a long time ago.

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03-12-2013, 10:07 AM
  #107
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Looking at this summer's defense UFA pool, I'd be surprised if they didn't find Ballard a new team. Pretty bad market.

Luckily the Canucks have tons of depth and young players coming on defense. Looks like Tanev can already handle top 4 minutes and should be even better next season. If a guy like Andersson keeps improving and takes another step forward after his first NA year, he could compete for a 6/7 spot. Then there's the unknowns like Price and Tommernes who have potential too. And of course Corrado might be ready to play in the NHL next year, he was already impressive last year with the Wolves.

Ballard and Alberts are both probably gone. I think the Canucks need a new "Alberts", a veteran depth guy to step in when needed, but otherwise the blue line looks fine.

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03-12-2013, 10:10 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by StanGrossman View Post
Any talk of trading Kesler is asanine. So soon people forget. This guy is precisely what the team needs in the playoffs. Kesler is beat down as much as he is because he plays so hard. The guy is tenacious, fearless. There are very few players id contemplate moving him for and I certainly would not float him out in trade proposals. Burrows too - there'd have to be massive overpayment coming back. These are the heart and soul guys that drive the team in the post season.
I do not disagree with you. Kesler is a fabulous player. However, the difficulty with getting impact core players in trade is you must give up attractive assets. To acquire a big, tough, talented #1 D man, would recquire Kesler going the other way. To get another core center, would require Edler + (Burrows). Trading peripheral players will not make any difference. Trading young assets, and draft picks, in a capped system is what would be asinine, unless getting young players and draft picks in return.

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03-12-2013, 10:12 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Vajakki View Post
Looking at this summer's defense UFA pool, I'd be surprised if they didn't find Ballard a new team. Pretty bad market.

Luckily the Canucks have tons of depth and young players coming on defense. Looks like Tanev can already handle top 4 minutes and should be even better next season. If a guy like Andersson keeps improving and takes another step forward after his first NA year, he could compete for a 6/7 spot. Then there's the unknowns like Price and Tommernes who have potential too. And of course Corrado might be ready to play in the NHL next year, he was already impressive last year with the Wolves.

Ballard and Alberts are both probably gone. I think the Canucks need a new "Alberts", a veteran depth guy to step in when needed, but otherwise the blue line looks fine.
A veteran UFA righty, from BC, is Ryan O'Byrne....he's essentially a RH Alberts. Probably fit in very well with the core of this team.

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03-12-2013, 10:17 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Vajakki View Post
the blue line looks fine.
You're being sarcastic, I expect. The blue-line looks anything but fine. Tanev is a good player, but nothing more. 5 years from now he will play exactly as he does now. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but he is a complimentary player, who is at his ceiling. The rest of the D is the same, complimentary players at their ceilings. They need to add a top D-man.

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03-12-2013, 10:25 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
A veteran UFA righty, from BC, is Ryan O'Byrne....he's essentially a RH Alberts. Probably fit in very well with the core of this team.
Good call, but does O'Byrne take a paycut from 1.8m to sign here as a depth Dman?

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03-12-2013, 10:32 AM
  #112
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My completely unrealistic trades at/before the deadline:

1. Schneider + Ballard + Raymond to Tampa for St. Louis + Garon + Radko Gudas
2. Ebbett + 2nd + 3rd to Florida for Goc + Weaver
3. Alberts + 4th to Colorado for O'Byrne

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows
Booth - Kesler - St. Louis
Higgins - Goc - Hansen
Weise - Lapierre - Kassian
Sestito
+ Schroeder, Pinizzotto in the minors

Edler - Tanev
Hamhuis - Bieksa
Garrison - Weaver
Barker, O'Byrne
+ Gudas, Vandermeer in the minors

Luongo
Garon

4 left handed d-men, 4 right handed d-men. Plus Weaver and Garrison have chemistry from their Florida days.
We would even have enough cap space to add another top 9 forward if we wanted to.

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Old
03-12-2013, 10:36 AM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Alan Jackson View Post
Kesler's playoff prowess is extremely overrated. One legendary series against the Predators, but pretty ordinary other than that.

I wish the Canucks had explored trading Kesler before his no-trade kicked in. Imagine the return. I think his value has taken a hit, and his NTC likely renders all trade discussion moot.
The Canucks claim to have integrity, pretty tough to do that after you pull the rug out from under a player because you don't like a clause in a contract that you signed that hasn't even kicked in yet.

As for Kesler's overrated playoff prowess, he also went up against two of the best centers in the league (Jonathan Toews -4 over 7 games, Joe Thornton -3 over 5 games) that year before suffering a serious injury that hobbled him for the finals.

So that's three pretty effective playoff series in one year.

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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
My post was a bit confusing there. It's not just about Luongo. Raymond and Ballard make sense for them too, if they know they're going to lose Gagner, that is. They have big raises coming to Hall and Eberle next year.

Ballard to EDM makes great sense. In fact, I'm not sure what the hold up is...? This trade should have been done a long time ago.
Yeah... if I'm Edmonton I don't deal Gagner for Ballard or Raymond or both.

You could make an argument that the Oilers are as weak down the middle as they are on the blueline, and Gagner might not be the exact solution to their problems but dealing him for a blueliner that has trouble being an every day NHLer on a good team is simply robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I'm not saying Steve Tambellini wouldn't make that deal, if he is even interested in winning this season that is, but I don't think it's a smart move for the Oilers.

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03-12-2013, 10:37 AM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Good call, but does O'Byrne take a paycut from 1.8m to sign here as a depth Dman?
Does he need to, if Ballard is gone?

Edler-Tanev - 6.2m
Hamhuis-Bieksa - 9.2
Garrison-O'byrne - 6.6

I've given O'Byrne a raise to 2m, and Tanev also got a raise to 1.2

A solid role playing, PKing, #6 with size and strength is a need and a want for me.

We can have any joe blow as the #7 for $700-900k. It's still considerably cheaper than this year.

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03-12-2013, 10:42 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
Yeah... if I'm Edmonton I don't deal Gagner for Ballard or Raymond or both.

You could make an argument that the Oilers are as weak down the middle as they are on the blueline, and Gagner might not be the exact solution to their problems but dealing him for a blueliner that has trouble being an every day NHLer on a good team is simply robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I'm not saying Steve Tambellini wouldn't make that deal, if he is even interested in winning this season that is, but I don't think it's a smart move for the Oilers.

It is like robbing Peter to pay Paul, good analogy. However, if they think they're going to lose Gagner, which becomes a very real possibility given their contract situation, then is he worth more? I don't think he is.

Gagner is having a great season at exactly the right time. He will cash in as a result. Then it's a wait to see what RNH and Yakupov get... It's not an easy choice.

But forget Gagner for a minute, what about Ballard for PRV or Petry? That makes sense for them as well. Ballard is a victim here to his circumstance as much as he is a contributor. I have no doubt he does better after he leaves this system. The only question is, do other teams see it quick enough and get a top4 for peanuts?

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03-12-2013, 10:43 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Does he need to, if Ballard is gone?

Edler-Tanev - 6.2m
Hamhuis-Bieksa - 9.2
Garrison-O'byrne - 6.6

I've given O'Byrne a raise to 2m, and Tanev also got a raise to 1.2

A solid role playing, PKing, #6 with size and strength is a need and a want for me.

We can have any joe blow as the #7 for $700-900k. It's still considerably cheaper than this year.

I figured the comparison to Alberts was one made on ability? If it was, and Alberts is a depth D here, would O'Byrne not be the same?

Would you pay Alberts 2m?

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03-12-2013, 11:05 AM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
I figured the comparison to Alberts was one made on ability? If it was, and Alberts is a depth D here, would O'Byrne not be the same?

Would you pay Alberts 2m?
I would not pay Alberts that. I was thinking more about replacing Ballard and Alberts with O'Byrne (I think AV wouldn't oppose).

But really, at this point we're paying 6.3m for defensman 6/7/8. It now looks like we can use the #8 spot as an ELC non-waiver eligible prospect in the farm.

I don't think we'll need a full time #8 on the roster in this case. I have no problem treating O'Byrne as what I figure he is - a full time #6.

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03-12-2013, 11:16 AM
  #118
dave babych returns
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
It is like robbing Peter to pay Paul, good analogy. However, if they think they're going to lose Gagner, which becomes a very real possibility given their contract situation, then is he worth more? I don't think he is.

Gagner is having a great season at exactly the right time. He will cash in as a result. Then it's a wait to see what RNH and Yakupov get... It's not an easy choice.
Edmonton has nearly $20m in cap space for next season, with none of their core players left to re-sign.

Their defense needs attention badly but they should be able to address that and re-sign Gagner, and if push comes to shove they can make a decision on Gagner when it comes time to shoehorn in the next round of huge contracts - and by then they have Hemsky and Horcoff coming off the books anyway.

Quote:
But forget Gagner for a minute, what about Ballard for PRV or Petry? That makes sense for them as well. Ballard is a victim here to his circumstance as much as he is a contributor. I have no doubt he does better after he leaves this system. The only question is, do other teams see it quick enough and get a top4 for peanuts?
Yeah that makes a bit more sense.

You have to wonder when Edmonton is going to start looking to convert the young player's they've deemed outside of their core into assets they can use.. who knows but it would make sense for them to start doing it in the next year or so.

I'm skeptical about Ballard having that kind of value but dealing him for a forward in their early 20's with top six upside would be a huge win for this team.

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03-12-2013, 11:16 AM
  #119
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
I would not pay Alberts that. I was thinking more about replacing Ballard and Alberts with O'Byrne (I think AV wouldn't oppose).

But really, at this point we're paying 6.3m for defensman 6/7/8. It now looks like we can use the #8 spot as an ELC non-waiver eligible prospect in the farm.

I don't think we'll need a full time #8 on the roster in this case. I have no problem treating O'Byrne as what I figure he is - a full time #6.

It's based on ability. If O'Byrne is comparable to ability to Alberts, and Alberts likely walks because the Canucks choose not to pay him over his 1.2m, the a Dman with the same traits isn't likely to get 2m from this team. Even if the guy is a RHD.

I'm fine with O'Byrne. I just don't think he will come cheap enough to fit on this club. Next year is going to be really tight, a lot of close decisions to be made, to turn around and pay an Alberts level Dman 2m I think...

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03-12-2013, 11:25 AM
  #120
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Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
Edmonton has nearly $20m in cap space for next season, with none of their core players left to re-sign.

Their defense needs attention badly but they should be able to address that and re-sign Gagner, and if push comes to shove they can make a decision on Gagner when it comes time to shoehorn in the next round of huge contracts - and by then they have Hemsky and Horcoff coming off the books anyway.

EDM has to re-sign Smid, Fistric and Pekham on D. That should be about 7m. Then they have to get a replacement for Whitney's 4m. So 11m added to that 20m in space. After that, they get the raises to Hall and Eberle, plus raises due to Gagner, possibly PRV, Jones, Hartikainen and Lander...

They're at 67m now. Have to drop 3m overall, with no big salaries leaving the club (other than Whitney, which they will look to replace), and big raises to Eberle and Hall. Short of making a capgeek mock, they've got some tough choices ahead.

A lot will come down to what they pay Gagner and Smid. They may simply get rid of Whitney's salary and have a poor defense too, but I doubt it.


Quote:
Yeah that makes a bit more sense.

You have to wonder when Edmonton is going to start looking to convert the young player's they've deemed outside of their core into assets they can use.. who knows but it would make sense for them to start doing it in the next year or so.

I'm skeptical about Ballard having that kind of value but dealing him for a forward in their early 20's with top six upside would be a huge win for this team.


Thing is, no one knows if PRV can secure an NHL roster spot long-term. He's not nearly direct enough in his game to be a regular bottom6 guy. He also fails to utilize his skillset in a top6 role. So what is he really?

They will move PRV eventually I think, and what better way to shore up their defense than to get a devalued top4 in return? I think it makes great sense for them. The major stumbling block being inter-divisional trades.

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03-12-2013, 11:32 AM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
It's based on ability. If O'Byrne is comparable to ability to Alberts, and Alberts likely walks because the Canucks choose not to pay him over his 1.2m, the a Dman with the same traits isn't likely to get 2m from this team. Even if the guy is a RHD.

I'm fine with O'Byrne. I just don't think he will come cheap enough to fit on this club. Next year is going to be really tight, a lot of close decisions to be made, to turn around and pay an Alberts level Dman 2m I think...
Fair enough.

I think he moreso replaces what Alberts brings in a better, more every day servicable package. More comparable to Aaron Rome, in an Alberts sized body.

I guess next year, instead of paying $6.3 to the bottom 6/7/8 d-men, we'll only be looking to pay under $2.5 for the 6/7/8 group....I think we'll regret that.

It'll be interesting for sure....should have a lot of disposable parts on the roster if we have to have so many guys at or around $1m.

Gonna be a tough job for Gillis and Gilman...I think they're up to it.

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03-12-2013, 11:36 AM
  #122
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
EDM has to re-sign Smid, Fistric and Pekham on D. That should be about 7m. Then they have to get a replacement for Whitney's 4m. So 11m added to that 20m in space. After that, they get the raises to Hall and Eberle, plus raises due to Gagner, possibly PRV, Jones, Hartikainen and Lander...

They're at 67m now. Have to drop 3m overall, with no big salaries leaving the club (other than Whitney, which they will look to replace), and big raises to Eberle and Hall. Short of making a capgeek mock, they've got some tough choices ahead.

A lot will come down to what they pay Gagner and Smid. They may simply get rid of Whitney's salary and have a poor defense too, but I doubt it.
Capgeek has them at $45m for next year, that includes Hall and Eberle.

So that's $19m in space with the following RFAs: Gagner, Paajarvi, Hartikainen, Peckham. Other than Gagner I don't think you have any real trouble brewing there.

In terms of UFAs they have Whitney, Khabibulin, Smid, Sutton, Ryan Jones, Fistric, Potter and Yann Danis.

Out of all of those players I see Gagner, Smid, and Fistric as guys likely to get substantial raises.

Other players will have to be replaced but I am guessing that they can get similar contributions for much less than they are paying guys like Khabibulin and Whitney (who is not even in the lineup at this point).

Anyway I'm not saying it's all sunshine and roses for the Oilers but they can afford to pay Gagner what he's worth. If he's worth enough to throw their cap situation into turmoil he almost certainly would do the same here.

Quote:
Thing is, no one knows if PRV can secure an NHL roster spot long-term. He's not nearly direct enough in his game to be a regular bottom6 guy. He also fails to utilize his skillset in a top6 role. So what is he really?

They will move PRV eventually I think, and what better way to shore up their defense than to get a devalued top4 in return? I think it makes great sense for them. The major stumbling block being inter-divisional trades.
Yeah I don't see Tambo dealing with the Canucks unless it's a clear win for his team. And I doubt Mike Gillis is super interested in offering up that kind of trade..

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03-12-2013, 11:49 AM
  #123
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Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
Capgeek has them at $45m for next year, that includes Hall and Eberle.

So that's $19m in space with the following RFAs: Gagner, Paajarvi, Hartikainen, Peckham. Other than Gagner I don't think you have any real trouble brewing there.

In terms of UFAs they have Whitney, Khabibulin, Smid, Sutton, Ryan Jones, Fistric, Potter and Yann Danis.

Out of all of those players I see Gagner, Smid, and Fistric as guys likely to get substantial raises.

Other players will have to be replaced but I am guessing that they can get similar contributions for much less than they are paying guys like Khabibulin and Whitney (who is not even in the lineup at this point).

Anyway I'm not saying it's all sunshine and roses for the Oilers but they can afford to pay Gagner what he's worth. If he's worth enough to throw their cap situation into turmoil he almost certainly would do the same here.



Yeah I don't see Tambo dealing with the Canucks unless it's a clear win for his team. And I doubt Mike Gillis is super interested in offering up that kind of trade..


It was my mistake, I wasn't factoring in the bonus cushion. Here's the line-up:


CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Taylor Hall ($6.000m) / Shawn Horcoff ($5.500m) / Jordan Eberle ($6.000m)
Ryan Smyth ($2.250m) / Ryan N.-Hopkins ($3.775m) / Ales Hemsky ($5.000m)
Magnus Paajarvi ($0.951m) / Sam Gagner ($4.500m) / Nail Yakupov ($3.775m)
Ryan Jones ($1.500m) / Eric Belanger ($1.750m) / Ben Eager ($1.100m)
Teemu Hartikainen ($0.927m) / Mike Brown ($0.737m)
DEFENSEMEN
Justin Schultz ($3.775m) / Nick Schultz ($3.500m)
Ladislav Smid ($4.250m) / Ryan Whitney ($4.000m)
Theo Peckham ($1.475m) / Jeff Petry ($1.750m)
Mark Fistric ($1.475m) /
GOALTENDERS
Devan Dubnyk ($3.500m)
Yann Danis ($0.800m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,466,542; BONUSES: $8,550,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $5,655,958


So if they take Whitney out of that, they can more than fit, yet their D is worse than it was this year... and the team up front is the same. So a worse team overall. The only way they improve is to turn Jones+Whitney into a good player, without taking much else away from their roster, and hope their young guys take steps forward.

They need veteran players that are medium to good contributors ASAP. For a team pushing the cap, their results aren't there at all. Of course, you could say the same about the Canucks right now...

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03-12-2013, 11:49 AM
  #124
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Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
Capgeek has them at $45m for next year, that includes Hall and Eberle.

So that's $19m in space with the following RFAs: Gagner, Paajarvi, Hartikainen, Peckham. Other than Gagner I don't think you have any real trouble brewing there.

In terms of UFAs they have Whitney, Khabibulin, Smid, Sutton, Ryan Jones, Fistric, Potter and Yann Danis.

Out of all of those players I see Gagner, Smid, and Fistric as guys likely to get substantial raises.

Other players will have to be replaced but I am guessing that they can get similar contributions for much less than they are paying guys like Khabibulin and Whitney (who is not even in the lineup at this point).

Anyway I'm not saying it's all sunshine and roses for the Oilers but they can afford to pay Gagner what he's worth. If he's worth enough to throw their cap situation into turmoil he almost certainly would do the same here.



Yeah I don't see Tambo dealing with the Canucks unless it's a clear win for his team. And I doubt Mike Gillis is super interested in offering up that kind of trade..
What do you think Gagner gets paid?

I think EDM is going to have to give him $5+ million cap hit. The comparable are on his team (Horcoff, Hemsky, Eberle, and Hall), Ryan O'Reilly in Col. I don't think Sammy is gonna hand out a discount to stay there.

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Old
03-12-2013, 11:52 AM
  #125
dave babych returns
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There is no way Whitney suits up for them next year. They could get a moderately disappointing $4m defenseman on the free agent market instead that would still give them more than he has this season.

Or they could trade Sam Gagner for a better defenseman than Keith Ballard.

Still, I'd rather be in the Canucks shoes than the Oilers at this point. Unless that team makes some real changes to their core (and it's probably going to take an overhaul of management) and manages their cap situation exceptionally they are not going be contenders..

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