Probably he is getting a large number of points from tap in goals, empty net points and secondary assists, so I could see him finally beating 50 points if it was a full season. What I would love to see is SS improve his FO% and cut out the bad turnovers like the 2 he had tonight (back pass to no one as he left the zone with the puck, and backhand pass up the middle to try to clear the puck that extended a long shift in the Oilers zone) or the two he had against Chicago that led directly to goals against.
I was beginning to wonder if I was the only one seeing these amazing defensive lapses on his part.
Everyone sees the points that he gets but not the horrible giveaways/penalties/goals against he gives up/causes.
I'd imagine, Gagner gets 4.5M long-term. If they get to draft a big 2C (Monahan/Barkov), so much the better. In that case Gagner can replace Hemsky on the RW.
Probably he is getting a large number of points from tap in goals, empty net points and secondary assists, so I could see him finally beating 50 points if it was a full season. What I would love to see is SS improve his FO% and cut out the bad turnovers like the 2 he had tonight (back pass to no one as he left the zone with the puck, and backhand pass up the middle to try to clear the puck that extended a long shift in the Oilers zone) or the two he had against Chicago that led directly to goals against.
He is driving the play on his line, and has been our only consistent source of offense all season long. Don't try and play it off as if he's getting garbage points.
He is driving the play on his line, and has been our only consistent source of offense all season long. Don't try and play it off as if he's getting garbage points.
At least 5 of his goals have been empty net tap ins where he does nothing to create the chance (like tonights goal, or the one with 0.3 sec left earlier in the season) or else goals with the goalie pulled. He also has a large number of second assists where he probably shouldn't have gotten the assist, like tonight's assist or a few games back when he iced the puck but Yak won the foot race then won a puck battle and set up the goal.
Taylor Hall drives the play, Ales Hemsky drives the play. SS has learned to pick his spots and capitalize on great plays by others and to be in the right place at the right time.
I'd imagine, Gagner gets 4.5M long-term. If they get to draft a big 2C (Monahan/Barkov), so much the better. In that case Gagner can replace Hemsky on the RW.
Thats a nice thought for you and the Oiler to be having.
At least 5 of his goals have been empty net tap ins where he does nothing to create the chance (like tonights goal, or the one with 0.3 sec left earlier in the season) or else goals with the goalie pulled. He also has a large number of second assists where he probably shouldn't have gotten the assist, like tonight's assist or a few games back when he iced the puck but Yak won the foot race then won a puck battle and set up the goal.
Taylor Hall drives the play, Ales Hemsky drives the play. SS has learned to pick his spots and capitalize on great plays by others and to be in the right place at the right time.
So...what's your point? That he is awesome for being our most opportunistic player?
I'm hoping he gets re-signed to a 5-year deal at under $22 mil.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lay Z Boy GM
I'd love to offer Gagner the Hemsky contract. 6 years for $4m a season. I think we should hang on to Gagner until RNH really takes over at least. That might take a couple years, but hey, 2 years from now maybe Gagner and RNH could be a great 1/2 punch.
I do agree with others that we should look at trading Hemsky for some size and grit that can fit into the top 6.
Are you guys also hoping he stops scoring from now till the end of the year? Because if he doesn't and he finishes with 40 points, he will not sign for less than 5M, and if we dont give it, he'll go to arbitration, then be UFA in one year.
Even if he regresses to 50P Gagner, He will get 5x5+ as a UFA.
If he keep up this season pace and scores 65P+, he'll get 6x6 Easy.
Best choice: Give him up to 5.25M Long term this summer, even with regression, it will be a par value contract in the future.
He would accept it because of term and because he is fond of enough of the group to give a hometown discount. I don't expect that he'd accept it but it's not outside the realm of possibility.
Did you mis-say this? 4.5 Would be a definite discount the way he is playing.
And the term? He is 1 year from UFA, im sure a 1 year deal would suit him just fine (which he can 100% choose to get by going to Arbitration).
At least 5 of his goals have been empty net tap ins where he does nothing to create the chance (like tonights goal, or the one with 0.3 sec left earlier in the season) or else goals with the goalie pulled. He also has a large number of second assists where he probably shouldn't have gotten the assist, like tonight's assist or a few games back when he iced the puck but Yak won the foot race then won a puck battle and set up the goal.
Taylor Hall drives the play, Ales Hemsky drives the play. SS has learned to pick his spots and capitalize on great plays by others and to be in the right place at the right time.
So what you are saying is we drastically overpaid Eberle.
So what you are saying is we drastically overpaid Eberle.
I don't know, maybe you should ask the Cansucks #1 Dman. He is still probably having nightmares of Eberle burning him repeatedly in the games against the Canucks this year.
Thats a nice thought for you and the Oiler to be having.
No idea why Gagner would accept it.
If he doesn't, I don't see him remaining an Oiler. I guess it depends how badly he wants to remain with the team - if he does, he'll sacrifice some to remain here. If not, he will be a good trading chip.
I think it's safe to say that he's pretty much a fixture here and will/should be signed long term.
I still think that he could get dealt in a couple of seasons if we draft a bigger, 2 way center and have him ready to assume a top 6 role by then but as of now, there's no way that the Oilers can afford to deal Sam without an upgrade coming back. He has always worked his butt off every shift (one of the few Oilers that does) but he is now developing offensive consistency by simply being smart and knowing where to pick his spots, is clearly stronger on the puck and battles hard at the net.
With all that being said, he's a flawed player and I'm still not sure that he will be here when/if the team is ready to contend for the big prize but for now, he's a very important player for this team.
Did you mis-say this? 4.5 Would be a definite discount the way he is playing.
And the term? He is 1 year from UFA, im sure a 1 year deal would suit him just fine (which he can 100% choose to get by going to Arbitration).
He would accept a $4.5 million deal if he wanted to give a hometown discount.
He would be interested in term because things are going just about as well for him right now as they could be going for him. The bounces might not go his way next year.
I'm not comfortable with him at $5.25 million given his defensive issues and my expectation of how much RNH, Yakupov, Schultz and even MPS are going to cost.
At least 5 of his goals have been empty net tap ins where he does nothing to create the chance (like tonights goal, or the one with 0.3 sec left earlier in the season) or else goals with the goalie pulled. He also has a large number of second assists where he probably shouldn't have gotten the assist, like tonight's assist or a few games back when he iced the puck but Yak won the foot race then won a puck battle and set up the goal.
Taylor Hall drives the play, Ales Hemsky drives the play. SS has learned to pick his spots and capitalize on great plays by others and to be in the right place at the right time.
bs. he scored because he was in the right place at the right time.... that's not a fluke. that's reading the play and timing one's arrival to the spot. Bernie Nichols was a master at this. Just always seemed to be there.
At this point I think that to trade Gagner the Oilers would have to be blown away by the return. My guess is that he is here for a while.
His contract is going to be quite delicate. He holds the majority of the cards, and if he does not like what he sees he goes to arbitration. Historically, arbitration results are skewed by offensive numbers. The Oilers do not have a good case in this regard. So they need to give him a fair deal but control the parameters.
If he gets over 40 points it will be hard to keep the deal under $5M. But if they are smart they will front load it to keep his trade value going forward. A deal like
7 6.5 4.25 3.75 3.5
is a 5 year deal with a cap hit of $5M. In year three the deal becomes effectively a three year deal at about $3.8M in real dollars. He would still be tradable to a team on a budget if a better option is available.
I think it's safe to say that he's pretty much a fixture here and will/should be signed long term.
I still think that he could get dealt in a couple of seasons if we draft a bigger, 2 way center and have him ready to assume a top 6 role by then but as of now, there's no way that the Oilers can afford to deal Sam without an upgrade coming back. He has always worked his butt off every shift (one of the few Oilers that does) but he is now developing offensive consistency by simply being smart and knowing where to pick his spots, is clearly stronger on the puck and battles hard at the net.
With all that being said, he's a flawed player and I'm still not sure that he will be here when/if the team is ready to contend for the big prize but for now, he's a very important player for this team.
Thats a nice thought for you and the Oiler to be having.
No idea why Gagner would accept it.
yeah if he puts up a PPG pace this season, 4.5 might be a little low for gagner... but if we give him term, say 5 years, he might take it... all indications are that he likes playing in edmonton and wants to be here long term
ROR got 5 million/year over 2 years and they are probably roughly similar in value, maybe ROR having a sleight edge... i realize it was an offer-sheet, but that is what gagner's camp is going to be looking at as a comparable
So what you are saying is we drastically overpaid Eberle.
i actually think that we did, yeah... we overpaid, but not *drastically*
eberle has a shooting% that will probably never be repeatable, and we throw the bank at him... something like 5m/year x 6 years would have been more acceptable, but what can you do - spilt milk and all
At this point I think that to trade Gagner the Oilers would have to be blown away by the return. My guess is that he is here for a while.
His contract is going to be quite delicate. He holds the majority of the cards, and if he does not like what he sees he goes to arbitration. Historically, arbitration results are skewed by offensive numbers. The Oilers do not have a good case in this regard. So they need to give him a fair deal but control the parameters.
If he gets over 40 points it will be hard to keep the deal under $5M. But if they are smart they will front load it to keep his trade value going forward. A deal like
7 6.5 4.25 3.75 3.5
is a 5 year deal with a cap hit of $5M. In year three the deal becomes effectively a three year deal at about $3.8M in real dollars. He would still be tradable to a team on a budget if a better option is available.
very good post
the numbers (5x5) are a little high for my liking, but they aren't ridiculous or anything... we aren't up against the cap right now, gagner is a good 2nd line option and if we front load the contract, he will be very tradeable in the future (should it come to that)... plus players like front loaded contracts as well, due to the time value of money
At this point I think that to trade Gagner the Oilers would have to be blown away by the return. My guess is that he is here for a while.
His contract is going to be quite delicate. He holds the majority of the cards, and if he does not like what he sees he goes to arbitration. Historically, arbitration results are skewed by offensive numbers. The Oilers do not have a good case in this regard. So they need to give him a fair deal but control the parameters.
If he gets over 40 points it will be hard to keep the deal under $5M. But if they are smart they will front load it to keep his trade value going forward. A deal like
7 6.5 4.25 3.75 3.5
is a 5 year deal with a cap hit of $5M. In year three the deal becomes effectively a three year deal at about $3.8M in real dollars. He would still be tradable to a team on a budget if a better option is available.
This would be the best course if Gagner continues at his current pace.
the numbers (5x5) are a little high for my liking, but they aren't ridiculous or anything... we aren't up against the cap right now, gagner is a good 2nd line option and if we front load the contract, he will be very tradeable in the future (should it come to that)... plus players like front loaded contracts as well, due to the time value of money
The $5M is high for my liking as well, but if the Oilers are not trading him Gagner holds the cards. You need to fend off arbitration because it is far worse to be paying him $5M+ on a deal that would see him be a UFA in one year.
At this point I think that to trade Gagner the Oilers would have to be blown away by the return. My guess is that he is here for a while.
His contract is going to be quite delicate. He holds the majority of the cards, and if he does not like what he sees he goes to arbitration. Historically, arbitration results are skewed by offensive numbers. The Oilers do not have a good case in this regard. So they need to give him a fair deal but control the parameters.
If he gets over 40 points it will be hard to keep the deal under $5M. But if they are smart they will front load it to keep his trade value going forward. A deal like
7 6.5 4.25 3.75 3.5
is a 5 year deal with a cap hit of $5M. In year three the deal becomes effectively a three year deal at about $3.8M in real dollars. He would still be tradable to a team on a budget if a better option is available.
Your logic is sound.
I don't love it and I don't hate it so it sounds realistic to me concerning the cap hit number.
I'm always scared when players put up numbers in contract years. Maybe you just notice when play drops after more often but it just seems to be the case.
I guess Hall hasn't dropped statistically... Eberle has though. Will cross my fingers and hope this is the Sam Gagner we get from now on. Always loved his character.
At least 5 of his goals have been empty net tap ins where he does nothing to create the chance (like tonights goal, or the one with 0.3 sec left earlier in the season) or else goals with the goalie pulled. He also has a large number of second assists where he probably shouldn't have gotten the assist, like tonight's assist or a few games back when he iced the puck but Yak won the foot race then won a puck battle and set up the goal.
Taylor Hall drives the play, Ales Hemsky drives the play. SS has learned to pick his spots and capitalize on great plays by others and to be in the right place at the right time.
Someone needs to be there to tap in those loose pucks. Smyth used to get tons of goals that way, it didn't make him less valuable. I know you're a Gagner hater, but the guy has been our most consistent forward this year, and the only one better has been Hall.
