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Greg Sherman & Co - Record as Colorado Avalanche GM

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Old
03-13-2013, 01:48 AM
  #976
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Originally Posted by cgf View Post
Have we ever considered that Greg Sherman might be trying to make sure Sacco doesn't make the playoffs so that he's given permission to fire Sacco in the summer? Thus the hardline on ROR and clogging Barrie and co.'s path into the NHL with ****** defenders?
Love me a conspiracy theory.

Sacco's reluctance to make in game line changes reinforces to me the idea that he was just dead set not to play Barrie. Hope Sherman just figured Barrie needed to play somewhere and could go down waiver free.

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03-13-2013, 02:08 AM
  #977
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Both Shatty and Stewie wouldn't be what they are with the Blues right now.

Contrary to popular believe, Stewie is actually more than a one-dimensional floater right now. Hitchcock simply doesn't play those type of players, and it made Stewie have to do board work, backcheck, hustle, etc. With Sacco, he would still be a one-dimensional floater. Might get the same amount of points, but definitely not the same player. I'm not saying he's a beast out there, because he does still take a period or two off once in awhile, but he's way better than he was with us.

Shatty wouldn't be as confident or well rounded without playing in the Blues system and behind Pietrangelo either.

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03-13-2013, 02:50 AM
  #978
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Stewart was awesome with us before there's no reason to believe he wouldn't be again.

Shattenkirk wouldn't be as insulated defensively here but his offensive gifts were clear from literally day 1 with the big club.

They'd both be fine. We can rationalize as much as we want be overpaid for EJ in an attempt to fill a need. And it would have been fine if EJ were really to develop into an all situations, 40+ point, #1 dman. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like that's in the cards.

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03-13-2013, 03:00 AM
  #979
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Originally Posted by Nihiliste View Post
Stewart was awesome with us before there's no reason to believe he wouldn't be again.

Shattenkirk wouldn't be as insulated defensively here but his offensive gifts were clear from literally day 1 with the big club.

They'd both be fine. We can rationalize as much as we want be overpaid for EJ in an attempt to fill a need. And it would have been fine if EJ were really to develop into an all situations, 40+ point, #1 dman. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like that's in the cards.
The verdict is still very much out there.

We have no idea how Rattie or Siemens are going to turn out. For all we know Rattie could turn out to become a bonifide superstar and Siemens becomes a career AHLer, or vice versa. Definitely can't rationalize the trade right now. Obviously short term it looks better for the Blues, but we didn't make the trade for short term gain.

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03-13-2013, 09:20 AM
  #980
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Originally Posted by Nihiliste View Post
Stewart was awesome with us before there's no reason to believe he wouldn't be again.

Shattenkirk wouldn't be as insulated defensively here but his offensive gifts were clear from literally day 1 with the big club.

They'd both be fine. We can rationalize as much as we want be overpaid for EJ in an attempt to fill a need. And it would have been fine if EJ were really to develop into an all situations, 40+ point, #1 dman. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like that's in the cards.
Excellent post. Facts present some difficulty sometimes, but this post represents them quite well, IMO.

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03-13-2013, 09:35 AM
  #981
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It very well may turn out to be a trade in St Louis' favor, but I see how it can be a one sided horrible trade, and you can't rely on offensive stats to determine that. There are other factors like the 11th overall pick that came back, and McClement who was a great defensive forward and PKer that was deadset on playing for Toronto for less month apparently. That 120 point number is pretty misleading too when you're comparing two current players, and ignoring the other elements of the deal, and with the small sample size, and EJ's concussion and being worked back into the lineup factoring in.

I maintain that Shattenkirk wouldn't have been the same player for the Avs that he is behind Pietrangelo, and a more well rounded D core in St Louis. Stewart as well has only been hot for two month, and the future like the entire last season, could turn cold again just like Jones was hot to end last year and looks like crap this year.

You need an EJ type two way top pairing guy, and you need a Shattenkirk type offensive guy, but the EJ type is harder to come by IMO, as there are lots of ways to bring offensie to the backened, but there aren't too many ways to bring EJ's all around game with some offense to boot on the top pairing. St Louis had the luxury of giving up EJ with Pietrangelo, but the Avs didn't.

If you need both, IMO it's much easier to find an offensive guy to play with EJ, than it is to find a two way guy to the level that EJ is. That's why I'm not freaking out over Shattenkirk putting up points, under a better coach on a better team, with a more well rounded D core where he's not asked to do everything like EJ is.

If Shattenkirk is here, he's probably not that far off from Barrie IMO trying to rush the puck and make plays, but not getting enough support.
I don't believe your argument is without merit, however is it filled to the brim with conjecture - Stewart might tail off, Shattenkirk wouldn't be as good here, there's a #11 pick who could be great, etc. What we currently know, gleaned from sheer 100% factual information, is this:

- There are three NHL players from the trade on the two teams.
- The two players the Avs gave to StL are playing terrific offensive hockey, to the tune of a combined 133 points per 82 game season.
- The two StL players are playing at least acceptable defense, as they are playing large regular minutes for Ken Hitchcock on a playoff-caliber team.
- The one Col player is playing a quality defensive game. If you wish to make the case that EJ is playing superior defense to the two StL players, fine.
- The one Col player is playing marginally offensively, to the tune of 12 points over a 82 game season.

These are all facts. No conjecture, no crystal ball. This is what we have today.

Given that, there's 120+ point difference in the two. I'll ask the question again: What kind of defense does EJ have to play, to make up 120 NHL points?

The answer IMO: There is none.

Let me draw you an analogy. An imperfect one (as all analogies are), but one that may lend some clarity to my point here. Who in your opinion is the finest defensive defenseman in the NHL? One who plays really quality defense but does little at the other end? Chara perhaps? Scuderi? Staal? I'll use the latter as the example (Chara an imperfect example, because Chara is a much more offensively productive defenseman than EJ), but feel free to put in who you feel is the best defensive defenseman in the NHL. Here's my question:

Would it be good or bad trade for Pittsburgh to trade Sidney Crosby (and his 130ish points) for Staal? Or for whatever defenseman you wish to call the best defensively? Would it be a good or bad trade for Pittsburgh to trade Sidney Crosby for Staal and Duncan Siemens? Because this is what a number of you are suggesting. And no, the analogy isn't perfect (Crosby is a generationally special player), but I believe it makes the point in a different way: 120 points is special and very valuable, whether it comes in the form of one player or two.

In the end, I see no way on earth anyone can call this trade anything but a landslide (at this point in time) for StL. The Avs traded away 130 points per season for a single quality defensive defenseman.

No single player's defense is that good.


Last edited by ABasin: 03-13-2013 at 09:55 AM.
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Old
03-13-2013, 10:14 AM
  #982
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
In the end, I see no way on earth anyone can call this trade anything but a landslide (at this point in time) for StL. The Avs traded away 130 points per season for a single quality defensive defenseman.

No single player's defense is that good.
they wouldnt have 130 points under sacco.......

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03-13-2013, 10:23 AM
  #983
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they wouldnt have 130 points under sacco.......
Conjecture. They are proving to be 130 point (combined) NHL players. This is fact.

Tell you what - I think that "they would be scrubs under Sacco" argument is bogus, but let's entertain it for a moment. Let's play that game and cut out 30% of the two guys' points and attribute that to Hitchcock over Sacco (though Hitch is a coach who's a stickler for defense rather than offense, which should LOWER offensive numbers, but we'll ignore that factiod also):

What kind of defense would EJ have to play to make up for 100 NHL points?

The answer is still the same.

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03-13-2013, 10:40 AM
  #984
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Conjecture. They are proving to be 130 point (combined) NHL players. This is fact.
Apart from the small detail of them not ever having had 130 points combined in a NHL season? Last season they had 73 (combined).

While extrapolation is fun, it's not particularly reliable when using small samples. Let me illustrate: Sherman was a genius for signing 27 goal scorer Mitchell for under $2M/year and getting a PPG player in Parenteau.

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03-13-2013, 10:50 AM
  #985
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Love me a conspiracy theory.

Sacco's reluctance to make in game line changes reinforces to me the idea that he was just dead set not to play Barrie. Hope Sherman just figured Barrie needed to play somewhere and could go down waiver free.
It just makes sense, Sherman's building a team to contend for the cup, that's why he's focused a few years out and knows he needs to do whatever he can to get permission to replace the coach.

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03-13-2013, 11:12 AM
  #986
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I know people are generally being facetious but I think the fact that we're now proposing the idea that Sherman is setting up the team to fail deliberately to justify his moves is quite telling.

Sacco has given them plenty of justification for firing him, they don't need any more.

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03-13-2013, 11:55 AM
  #987
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I don't believe your argument is without merit, however is it filled to the brim with conjecture - Stewart might tail off, Shattenkirk wouldn't be as good here, there's a #11 pick who could be great, etc. What we currently know, gleaned from sheer 100% factual information, is this:

- There are three NHL players from the trade on the two teams.
- The two players the Avs gave to StL are playing terrific offensive hockey, to the tune of a combined 133 points per 82 game season.
- The two StL players are playing at least acceptable defense, as they are playing large regular minutes for Ken Hitchcock on a playoff-caliber team.
- The one Col player is playing a quality defensive game. If you wish to make the case that EJ is playing superior defense to the two StL players, fine.
- The one Col player is playing marginally offensively, to the tune of 12 points over a 82 game season.

These are all facts. No conjecture, no crystal ball. This is what we have today.

Given that, there's 120+ point difference in the two. I'll ask the question again: What kind of defense does EJ have to play, to make up 120 NHL points?

The answer IMO: There is none.

Let me draw you an analogy. An imperfect one (as all analogies are), but one that may lend some clarity to my point here. Who in your opinion is the finest defensive defenseman in the NHL? One who plays really quality defense but does little at the other end? Chara perhaps? Scuderi? Staal? I'll use the latter as the example (Chara an imperfect example, because Chara is a much more offensively productive defenseman than EJ), but feel free to put in who you feel is the best defensive defenseman in the NHL. Here's my question:

Would it be good or bad trade for Pittsburgh to trade Sidney Crosby (and his 130ish points) for Staal? Or for whatever defenseman you wish to call the best defensively? Would it be a good or bad trade for Pittsburgh to trade Sidney Crosby for Staal and Duncan Siemens? Because this is what a number of you are suggesting. And no, the analogy isn't perfect (Crosby is a generationally special player), but I believe it makes the point in a different way: 120 points is special and very valuable, whether it comes in the form of one player or two.

In the end, I see no way on earth anyone can call this trade anything but a landslide (at this point in time) for StL. The Avs traded away 130 points per season for a single quality defensive defenseman.

No single player's defense is that good.
These are all pretty unfair analogies, and the 120 point thing is just rhetoric. It's not a fair point to bring up when you're comparing two players combined point totals to one, and on a different and much better team, with a much better coach. It's not an apples for apples comparison, it's more like an apples for one grape from a different country comparison.

Shatty has played 133 games for the Blues, and Stewart 131. You can't combine an offensive defenseman's points, with an offensive wingers points in a combined 264 games, and say because they have more points than a two way defenseman in 109 games, it was a bad trade. That simply isn't fair.

Sure there's conjecture in my argument, but your premise that EJ can't be better isn't exactly based on proven fact either.

Your crosby analogy is a bit of a strawman too. Unintentional I'm sure, but no my position is not that trading a great offensive player for a great defensive player is a good trade. I think you're looking for things like stats, or analogies to prove why this was a bad deal, when really we haven't seen the end product from anyone yet. You can't define EJ's importance in a stat, and I can't quantify for you why I believe he is a better defenseman to build around then Shattenkirk.

Stewart is two months into a good season, following up an entire disappointing season. Shattenkirk looks good, but it's still early in his career. Remember how in love everyone was with Fowler a couple years ago. Even Liles looked to be a great defenseman in the making playing behind Blake early in his career. Not saying that Shatty will turn out like those guys, but defenseman can have their ups and downs early in their career. EJ could become a 40 point guy with the right partner and the right coach with a system that knows how to actually use the defenseman.

Or maybe EJ, Stewart, and Shatty stay exactly at the level they are now, and Siemens turns out to be mediocre. The trade would be a loss in hindsight, but it wouldn't be a horribly one sided deal because EJ's presence and stability for the D unit is very important, and a 30 goal power forward like Stewart is great to have but not exactly a Hart trophy winner.

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03-13-2013, 12:48 PM
  #988
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Who do I believe? The fans who say EJ is great or my lying eyes? I don't need to wait for much more info to determine what kind of player EJ is, and will be. He isn't some young D out on the ice trying to figure it out. He is a veteran by any definition. We are now 7 years post draft. If he had been progressing each year you could make a case that his trajectory was still upward. The fact is that his best season was 6 years ago and arguably has decreased since. How many D in the league just get that much better this far into their careers?

Is he the best D on this team? Yes. However, that trade simply hurt this franchise. It has regressed ever since it happened.

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03-13-2013, 12:52 PM
  #989
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Originally Posted by Nihiliste View Post
I know people are generally being facetious but I think the fact that we're now proposing the idea that Sherman is setting up the team to fail deliberately to justify his moves is quite telling.

Sacco has given them plenty of justification for firing him, they don't need any more.
It's ridiculous that we haven't been able to fire the man, but would anyone be shocked if that decision was out of Sherman's hands?

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03-13-2013, 12:54 PM
  #990
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Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
These are all pretty unfair analogies, and the 120 point thing is just rhetoric. It's not a fair point to bring up when you're comparing two players combined point totals to one, and on a different and much better team, with a much better coach. It's not an apples for apples comparison, it's more like an apples for one grape from a different country comparison.

Shatty has played 133 games for the Blues, and Stewart 131. You can't combine an offensive defenseman's points, with an offensive wingers points in a combined 264 games, and say because they have more points than a two way defenseman in 109 games, it was a bad trade. That simply isn't fair.
*shrug* That's the trade that Sherman made, so what else can I do? Perhaps Sherman should have traded for another young RFA type of player that he could have kept longer - or better yet, only given up one of the two players he did give up - so the games played on each team would be closer.

I'm comparing the cards I was dealt here, my friend. There were an odd number of high quality NHL players in the deal (three), and the Avalanche ended up with one of them, StL got two. That's Sherman's doing, not mine. And since he did that deal, any production comparisons between the returns are entirely valid, IMO.

Again, this isn't a knock or a judgment against EJ, so 'fair' and 'unfair' aren't valid in the least. It's a judgment of the trade, not the Avs player.

More later - have a meeting.

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03-13-2013, 12:58 PM
  #991
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I'm a massive EJ nuthugger, but it's getting pretty obvious that we overpaid greatly for him. Is he an awesome defender? Yes. But was he worth both Shattenkirk and Stewart (as well as a 2nd). Hell no.

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03-13-2013, 01:00 PM
  #992
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I'm a massive EJ nuthugger, but it's getting pretty obvious that we overpaid greatly for him. Is he an awesome defender? Yes. But was he worth both Shattenkirk and Stewart (as well as a 2nd). Hell no.
To be fair we got a 1st and Silent Jay out of the deal as well. It isn't like the deal was truly Shattenkirk + Stewart + 2nd for just EJ.

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03-13-2013, 01:05 PM
  #993
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I'm a massive EJ nuthugger, but it's getting pretty obvious that we overpaid greatly for him. Is he an awesome defender? Yes. But was he worth both Shattenkirk and Stewart (as well as a 2nd). Hell no.
If we kept McClement, which was beyond our control sadly and Siemens pans out we'd have been in no worse shape than the standard "worked for both sides" party line people use.

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03-13-2013, 01:06 PM
  #994
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I still make that trade 10 times out of 10. Shatty's awesome and one of my favorite young players we've brought through in recent years, but he's not a first pairing guy who can go out there, shut down top lines, and control the play. EJ can, and with how hard a time we've been having finding another top pairing Dman I'd much rather "overpay" to get one then be stuck with none.

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03-13-2013, 01:07 PM
  #995
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We got three defensive assets and Blues got three offensive assets in the trade. Only using offensive production to evaluate it seems a bit strange.

Perhaps we should have drafted Ryan Murphy instead of Duncan Siemens to increase our chances of winning the trade?

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03-13-2013, 01:42 PM
  #996
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We got three defensive assets and Blues got three offensive assets in the trade. Only using offensive production to evaluate it seems a bit strange.

Perhaps we should have drafted Ryan Murphy instead of Duncan Siemens to increase our chances of winning the trade?
Points are the only thing that matters in hockey.

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03-13-2013, 01:52 PM
  #997
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It's not out of line to point at EJ's lack of production. We want him to be that guy who can play in all situations. While it's great he's played solid defense, we need more from him than that.

He's clearly been indecisive with the puck, which could be attributed to trying to get his game back post-concussion, I don't know. But bottom line, he needs to be force at both ends of the ice to justify this trade. There are a lot of factors that can affect his production of course, but he needs to be an offensive catalyst more than ever since Sacco appears to think we can get by just fine without Tyson Barrie. That leaves EJ, SOB, and Wilson as the only guys on the blueline with any discernible puck skill whatsoever.

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03-13-2013, 02:03 PM
  #998
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It's not out of line to point at EJ's lack of production. We want him to be that guy who can play in all situations. While it's great he's played solid defense, we need more from him than that.

He's clearly been indecisive with the puck, which could be attributed to trying to get his game back post-concussion, I don't know. But bottom line, he needs to be force at both ends of the ice to justify this trade. There are a lot of factors that can affect his production of course, but he needs to be an offensive catalyst more than ever since Sacco appears to think we can get by just fine without Tyson Barrie. That leaves EJ, SOB, and Wilson as the only guys on the blueline with any discernible puck skill whatsoever.
No it's not out of line to point out EJ shortcomings, but at the same times it's not fair to completely ignore other players/draft picks (Siemens, Rattie, McClement) that were involved in that trade and to ignore the shortcomings of Stewart and Shattenkirk.

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03-13-2013, 02:08 PM
  #999
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Points are the only thing that matters on HFboards.

Fixed for you.

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03-13-2013, 02:45 PM
  #1000
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I think it is telling that on the STL boards there is absolutely zero chatter from fans thinking the Blues got the short end of the deal or even missing EJ. It seems that they clearly were ready to move on from him. Why is that?

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