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Old
03-13-2013, 09:29 AM
  #126
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Originally Posted by RussianRocket10 View Post
My dad is starting to hate Couturier for his lack of scoring. Anytime someone scores he says something along the lines of "Couturier would have missed that."


Hate a 20 years old second year player ? C'mon man !

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03-13-2013, 09:35 AM
  #127
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Originally Posted by RussianRocket10 View Post
My dad is starting to hate Couturier for his lack of scoring. Anytime someone scores he says something along the lines of "Couturier would have missed that."
Couturier's shooting percentage this season is 4.7%. Right now Luke Schenn's shooting percentage is 5.0%.

Last year, Couturier's shooting percentage was 11.2% which is FAR more realistic.

Likewise, RNH's shooting percentage last year was 13.4%. This year it is 3.6%.

It's fairly obvious why both of them are struggling substantially in the offensive zone.

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03-13-2013, 09:49 AM
  #128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhillyFlying View Post
it's difficult to improve on your offensive game when your coach is using you in a shutdown role. and i personally have no problem with that. he's great at it. the points will come with the years. let us learn to be patient, please.
I would not be suprised if we trade him in a couple years for less than we ought to because he isn't a 70 point guy yet, only to see him flourish elsewhere, a la JvR.

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03-13-2013, 09:55 AM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
Couturier's shooting percentage this season is 4.7%. Right now Luke Schenn's shooting percentage is 5.0%.

Last year, Couturier's shooting percentage was 11.2% which is FAR more realistic.

Likewise, RNH's shooting percentage last year was 13.4%. This year it is 3.6%.

It's fairly obvious why both of them are struggling substantially in the offensive zone.
Not really...

Sean Couturier has 43 shots. It's quite simple to figure out how many goals he would have if his shooting percentage had normalized. If we assume his normal shooting% is 11.2% (like last year), you do .112 * 43 shots = 4.81. If Couturier was shooting 11.2%, he'd have 4.81 goals instead of the 2 goals that he currently has. That would give him 9.81 points in 25 games, or a 32pts per 82 pace. Not exactly setting the world on fire there.

If we assume he's shooting 13.4% (RNH's from last yr), you do .134*43 shots =5.76 goals. That would give him 10.76 points in 25 games or a 35 pts per 82 pace. Again, not exactly great.

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03-13-2013, 10:03 AM
  #130
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Originally Posted by WeekendAtBernies View Post
Not really...

Sean Couturier has 43 shots. It's quite simple to figure out how many goals he would have if his shooting percentage had normalized. If we assume his normal shooting% is 11.2% (like last year), you do .112 * 43 shots = 4.81. If Couturier was shooting 11.2%, he'd have 4.81 goals instead of the 2 goals that he currently has. That would give him 9.81 points in 25 games, or a 32pts per 82 pace. Not exactly setting the world on fire there.

If we assume he's shooting 13.4% (RNH's from last yr), you do .134*43 shots =5.76 goals. That would give him 10.76 points in 25 games or a 35 pts per 82 pace. Again, not exactly great.
From a pure statistical perspective, I think that's right.

On the other hand, it is pretty clear that Couturier's offensive-zone confidence is completely shot right now. A bit more puck luck would probably translate to more than just the extra two goals, no?

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03-13-2013, 10:09 AM
  #131
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Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
From a pure statistical perspective, I think that's right.

On the other hand, it is pretty clear that Couturier's offensive-zone confidence is completely shot right now. A bit more puck luck would probably translate to more than just the extra two goals, no?
Potentially, but I think it's fairly ridiculous to say it's all confidence and to imply that if he his shooting % was a little better (aka he has an extra 2 goals), that his confidence would be boosted through the roof and he'd have all these extra points.

Sean Couturier has played very poorly this season in general. He's especially been bad in the offensive zone. He has bad stats overall, but really bad stats in the offensive zone. I personally think those bad stats are deserved based on the caliber of his play. Those bad stats aren't the product of bad puck luck or a lot of shots ringing off iron, they're the result of poor play. To say anything else is disingenuous.

That doesn't mean I'm worried about Couturier or his development, but let's call a spade a spade. Shafer tried to make Couturier's poor stats out to be nothing more than an "unlucky" shooting percentage and that's simply not the case. And I think it's dishonest to try and pump up our prospect's stats by saying things like that. Couturier is struggling this year for reasons far beyond "shooting percentage", and I think Shafer knows that.

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03-13-2013, 10:19 AM
  #132
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Do his zone starts versus zone finishes, qualcomp and corsi rel numbers look as good as they did last year? If so, then I don't really care about his points so much. He's going to need to get stronger and faster before he can assert himself offensively at this level anyway.

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03-13-2013, 10:21 AM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Giroux tha Damaja View Post
I would not be suprised if we trade him in a couple years for less than we ought to because he isn't a 70 point guy yet, only to see him flourish elsewhere, a la JvR.
JVR's hardly setting the world alight. 21 points in 27 games is decent, but not amazing.

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03-13-2013, 11:21 AM
  #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WeekendAtBernies View Post
Not really...

Sean Couturier has 43 shots. It's quite simple to figure out how many goals he would have if his shooting percentage had normalized. If we assume his normal shooting% is 11.2% (like last year), you do .112 * 43 shots = 4.81. If Couturier was shooting 11.2%, he'd have 4.81 goals instead of the 2 goals that he currently has. That would give him 9.81 points in 25 games, or a 32pts per 82 pace. Not exactly setting the world on fire there.

If we assume he's shooting 13.4% (RNH's from last yr), you do .134*43 shots =5.76 goals. That would give him 10.76 points in 25 games or a 35 pts per 82 pace. Again, not exactly great.
Actually, it's not just about scoring goals.

It's far more indicative of his play in the offensive zone, which has been subpar this season. When guys like Couturier, who should excel in the offensive zone, have crappy shooting percentages it's usually an indication that they are taking shots that they shouldn't, not getting opportunities, or not exploiting the opportunities that they do get.

Likewise, when players have higher shooting percentages it's usually indicative of a career year all-around. See: Talbot of 2011-12.

Another thing...

32 points in 82 games is what he would be pacing at with an 11.2 SH%.

He was pacing for roughly 29 points in 82 games last year.

So yes, figuratively AND technically (as you pointed out for me) Couturier's offense would be right where it is to be expected if he were shooting 11.2% like last season.

Maybe he's not setting the world on fire, but he's a 20-year-old defensive forward with a steady rotation of 3rd and 4th line wingers playing an almost purely defensive role outside of the time he gets on the 2nd PP unit.


Last edited by CS: 03-13-2013 at 11:41 AM.
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Old
03-13-2013, 11:24 AM
  #135
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1865 View Post
JVR's hardly setting the world alight. 21 points in 27 games is decent, but not amazing.
64~ point pace isn't bad for a 23-year-old PWF.

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03-13-2013, 12:07 PM
  #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1865 View Post
JVR's hardly setting the world alight. 21 points in 27 games is decent, but not amazing.
The majority of those points are goals, which I value more heavily than assists. Additionally, his game is not the sort that peaks at 23 and starts trending downward. He's a big fast man. The best is yet to come from that guy.

So yeah, a 30-30-60 guys is worth more than an average defender who hits people a lot. I don't want this to devolve into a debate about that trade. My post was meant to be a commentary on the organizations patience and the amount of roster turn over in general. Bob is another player with whom I wish they had shown more aptience. My beef is a JvR thing, bit it's not just a JvR thing.

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03-13-2013, 12:58 PM
  #137
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Couts + 2nd for Gardiner + Kulemin

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03-13-2013, 01:56 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by Symbol View Post
Couts + 2nd for Gardiner + Kulemin
Would you like a bad-decent prospect along with that?

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03-13-2013, 02:01 PM
  #139
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Next season many of uswill check te thread again and regret what they have written about him.

He'll bounce back. He's too ****in talented not too.

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03-13-2013, 02:16 PM
  #140
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I really like Couts. I am just not a fan of his skating. I think until he improves his skating ability to get in on easy goals and points his point total will be below what everyone thinks he can do.

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03-13-2013, 03:48 PM
  #141
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Originally Posted by BackWithaVengeance View Post
Next season many of uswill check te thread again and regret what they have written about him.

He'll bounce back. He's too ****in talented not too.
I think he's going to be much better by season's end. He's way too good to not break this slump soon.

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03-13-2013, 04:56 PM
  #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giroux tha Damaja View Post
Do his zone starts versus zone finishes, qualcomp and corsi rel numbers look as good as they did last year? If so, then I don't really care about his points so much. He's going to need to get stronger and faster before he can assert himself offensively at this level anyway.
2012
O-Zone: 40.3%
Finish: 45.4%
Corsi Rel QOC: 0.760
Corsi Rel: -3.4

2013:
O-Zone: 38.0%
Finish: 48.2%
Corsi Rel QOC: 1.340
Corsi Rel: 1.1

His zone starts and quality of competition have gotten tougher yet his Corsi and o-zone finishes have improved.

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03-13-2013, 05:21 PM
  #143
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I'm not going to pretend I know much about the current Flyers situation, seeing as I despise the team and rarely watch any of their games. However, the question I'm asking is if the Flyers really need Couturier? They already have Schenn at that #2 C position. Feels like a bit of a waste having a young player like Couts as #3 C. Wouldn't it be better to trade him for a D man?

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03-13-2013, 05:24 PM
  #144
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Originally Posted by 5255 View Post
I'm not going to pretend I know much about the current Flyers situation, seeing as I despise the team and rarely watch any of their games. However, the question I'm asking is if the Flyers really need Couturier? They already have Schenn at that #2 C position. Feels like a bit of a waste having a young player like Couts as #3 C. Wouldn't it be better to trade him for a D man?
It's a fair question. Some feel that it may be in our best interest long term to move Couts for a young d-man and groom Laughton for the 3C. Others feel that with the multitude of talented centers and scorers in our division, we can't give up our defensive strength down the middle and should pencil in Laughton for 4C or 3W.

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03-13-2013, 05:30 PM
  #145
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Originally Posted by Go For It View Post
It's a fair question. Some feel that it may be in our best interest long term to move Couts for a young d-man and groom Laughton for the 3C. Others feel that with the multitude of talented centers and scorers in our division, we can't give up our defensive strength down the middle and should pencil in Laughton for 4C or 3W.
Agreed. It's tough. If he turns out to be a Patrice Bergeron-consistent Selke-type forward with similar scoring prowess you better be getting a top 10 - 20 defenseman back for that. At this point it's all potential but he shut down Malkin his rookie season in the playoffs, that still speaks volumes of his defensive acumen.

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Old
03-13-2013, 05:42 PM
  #146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Haute Couturier View Post
2012
O-Zone: 40.3%
Finish: 45.4%
Corsi Rel QOC: 0.760
Corsi Rel: -3.4

2013:
O-Zone: 38.0%
Finish: 48.2%
Corsi Rel QOC: 1.340
Corsi Rel: 1.1

His zone starts and quality of competition have gotten tougher yet his Corsi and o-zone finishes have improved.
That explains his higher GAON/60 this year, too. Tougher minutes.

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03-13-2013, 07:43 PM
  #147
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Couturier's dreadful 4.7% shooting percentage also won't last forever. Just hope people realize that when it happens.

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03-13-2013, 07:56 PM
  #148
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RNH isn't exactly lighting the world on fire this year. Sophmore slumps happen.

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03-13-2013, 08:17 PM
  #149
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Haute Couturier View Post
2012
O-Zone: 40.3%
Finish: 45.4%
Corsi Rel QOC: 0.760
Corsi Rel: -3.4

2013:
O-Zone: 38.0%
Finish: 48.2%
Corsi Rel QOC: 1.340
Corsi Rel: 1.1

His zone starts and quality of competition have gotten tougher yet his Corsi and o-zone finishes have improved.
Thanks for that. I expected the numbers to be similar, but even tougher is a bit of a surprise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
That explains his higher GAON/60 this year, too. Tougher minutes.
It's been trial by fire for this guy, for sure.


Last edited by MiamiScreamingEagles: 03-17-2013 at 07:11 PM. Reason: Site rule #1
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03-13-2013, 08:20 PM
  #150
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Originally Posted by DrHamburg View Post
I really like Couts. I am just not a fan of his skating. I think until he improves his skating ability to get in on easy goals and points his point total will be below what everyone thinks he can do.
I feel very similar.

There are many times a game where his lack of speed kills any chance he could get or create

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