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C/LW Jonathan Drouin - Halifax Mooseheads, QMJHL (2013, 3rd overall, Tampa Bay) II

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Old
03-13-2013, 12:47 PM
  #201
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SnipeCheeseAllDay View Post
In my opinion, Drouin is only similar to Giroux in terms of size and vision. But Drouin has much better hands and I can see him being a much bigger threat than Giroux. He looks a lot like Patrick Kane is his younger days.
Better than Giroux but as good as Kane?

Giroux >> Kane

And as far as hands, Datsyuk, Kane and Giroux are the top 3 in the league, drouin could very well join than group, but pump the brakes kid. Giroux has much better hands than Drouin currently, its disrespectful to say otherwise.

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03-13-2013, 01:57 PM
  #202
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Originally Posted by hab 4ever View Post
True. But the gap between QMJHL has been similar (and tiny) in past 6-7 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hab 4ever View Post
True. But the gap between QMJHL has been similar (and tiny) in past 6-7 years.
Q scoring has gone up after Christmas and I believe the league is now at 6.98 goals per game.

But this is still lower than the OHL's 7.46 during Kane's draft eligible season
(2006/2007).

Normalizing all the data to 8 goals per game, and projecting each player's points per game over 80 games, here are the top 40 draft-eligible major junior seasons by forwards since 1981.


1 Crosby 05 Q 266
2 Mario 84 Q 257
3 Kane 07 O 204
4 Drouin 13 Q 201
5 Briere 96 Q 197

6 Lafontaine 83 Q 187
7 Brendl 99 W 186
8 Spezza 01 O 185
9 Lindros 91 O 183
10 Gagner 07 O 183

11 Daigle 93 Q 183
12 Bouchard, PM 02 Q 182
13 Lecavalier 98 Q 177
14 Hall 10 O 167
15 Tavares 09 O 167

16 Hawerchuk 81 Q 163
17 Savard, M 91 O 163
18 Brassard Q 06 163
19 Turgeon, P 87 Q 161
20 Thornton 87 O 161

21 Little 06 O 154
22 MacKinnon 13 Q 154
23 Stamkos 08 O 154
24 Langkow 95 W 153
25 Ribeiro 98 Q 152

26 Tanguay 98 Q 151
27 Gratton 93 O 150
28 Couturier 11 Q 150
29 Huberdeau 11 Q 150
30 Damphousse 85 Q 149

31 Staal, E 03 O 148
32 Richards, B 98 Q 145
33 Seguin 10 O 145
34 Falloon 91 W 145
35 Bellows 82 O 145

36 Primeau 90 O 144
37 Ryan 05 O 143
38 Marleau 97 W 143
39 Turgeon, S 83 O 142
40 Nugent-Hopkins 11 W 142



A few observations:
1) Drouin is having some kind of year.

2) the list is dominated by Q players. Even controlling for league scoring levels by normalizing to 8 goals per game, Q fwds take 5 of top 6 spots (and 18 of top 40. O with 17 in top 40 and W with only 5).

3) If guys score at that clip as 17/18 year olds in major junior, they almost definitely will be able to score at NHL level (only complete bust on the list in Brendl) and should not be passed over in draft. Six on that list slipped past the top 10 of the draft - Biere 24th, Savard 91st, Little 12th, Ribeiro 45th, Tanguay 12th, and Richards 64th. Jury still out on Little, but the other 5 are (or were) top 6 forwards with some seasons at all-star level.


If you do the same things with goals (arguably a better predictor of NHL success than points), here are the top 40:

1 Mario 121
2 Crosby 107
3 Stamkos 92
4 Tavares 91
5 Lindros 87

6 Brendl 87
7 Kane 83
8 Tanguay 83
9 Lafontaine 80
10 Drouin 80

11 Briere 80
12 Skinner 75
13 P. Turgeon 75
14 Langkow 72
15 Hawerchuk 72

16 Gratton 72
17 Lupul 71
18 Convery 71
19 Bellows 70
20 Legwand 70

21 Spezza 69
22 E. Kane 69
23 Hall 68
24 Lecavalier 67
25 Seguin 66

26 Nolan 66
27 Falloon 66
28 Primeau 66
29 Warriner 65
30 Huberdeau 65

31 Niedermeyer 64
32 Brassard 64
33 Bernier 64
34 Ricci 63
35 E. Staal 63

36 MacKinnon 63
37 Gelinas 63
38 Carson 63
39 D. Roy 62
40 Brule 62

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Old
03-13-2013, 08:08 PM
  #203
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Jonathan Drouin with 1g 2a 3 points

104 pts in 47 games

Point streak still goes on .... crazy guy

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Old
03-13-2013, 08:12 PM
  #204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jabba11 View Post
Jonathan Drouin with 1g 2a 3 points

104 pts in 47 games

Point streak still goes on .... crazy guy
Wow,

kid sure is something.

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Old
03-13-2013, 08:13 PM
  #205
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Wow, very interesting post.

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Old
03-13-2013, 08:30 PM
  #206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by decma View Post

2) the list is dominated by Q players. Even controlling for league scoring levels by normalizing to 8 goals per game, Q fwds take 5 of top 6 spots (and 18 of top 40. O with 17 in top 40 and W with only 5).
First off, great post.


I think your numbers show how much the Q and O are on par offensively with the W way more defense first.

4 of the top 5 are Q player but that include Mario Lemieux and Sydney Crosby those guy are the two best player to play in the NHL in your time frame so its pretty obvious they will also be the two best player to play in the CHL.

For the top 40 it's 18 to 17 for the Q this year, would have been 17-16 for the O last year before Drouin and Mackinon and who knows who will lead after next year.

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Old
03-13-2013, 08:34 PM
  #207
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This guy's no Nate Mackinnon that's for sure.

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Old
03-13-2013, 09:01 PM
  #208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by decma View Post
Q scoring has gone up after Christmas and I believe the league is now at 6.98 goals per game.

But this is still lower than the OHL's 7.46 during Kane's draft eligible season
(2006/2007).

Normalizing all the data to 8 goals per game, and projecting each player's points per game over 80 games, here are the top 40 draft-eligible major junior seasons by forwards since 1981.


1 Crosby 05 Q 266
2 Mario 84 Q 257
3 Kane 07 O 204
4 Drouin 13 Q 201
5 Briere 96 Q 197

6 Lafontaine 83 Q 187
7 Brendl 99 W 186
8 Spezza 01 O 185
9 Lindros 91 O 183
10 Gagner 07 O 183

11 Daigle 93 Q 183
12 Bouchard, PM 02 Q 182
13 Lecavalier 98 Q 177
14 Hall 10 O 167
15 Tavares 09 O 167

16 Hawerchuk 81 Q 163
17 Savard, M 91 O 163
18 Brassard Q 06 163
19 Turgeon, P 87 Q 161
20 Thornton 87 O 161

21 Little 06 O 154
22 MacKinnon 13 Q 154
23 Stamkos 08 O 154
24 Langkow 95 W 153
25 Ribeiro 98 Q 152

26 Tanguay 98 Q 151
27 Gratton 93 O 150
28 Couturier 11 Q 150
29 Huberdeau 11 Q 150
30 Damphousse 85 Q 149

31 Staal, E 03 O 148
32 Richards, B 98 Q 145
33 Seguin 10 O 145
34 Falloon 91 W 145
35 Bellows 82 O 145

36 Primeau 90 O 144
37 Ryan 05 O 143
38 Marleau 97 W 143
39 Turgeon, S 83 O 142
40 Nugent-Hopkins 11 W 142



A few observations:
1) Drouin is having some kind of year.

2) the list is dominated by Q players. Even controlling for league scoring levels by normalizing to 8 goals per game, Q fwds take 5 of top 6 spots (and 18 of top 40. O with 17 in top 40 and W with only 5).

3) If guys score at that clip as 17/18 year olds in major junior, they almost definitely will be able to score at NHL level (only complete bust on the list in Brendl) and should not be passed over in draft. Six on that list slipped past the top 10 of the draft - Biere 24th, Savard 91st, Little 12th, Ribeiro 45th, Tanguay 12th, and Richards 64th. Jury still out on Little, but the other 5 are (or were) top 6 forwards with some seasons at all-star level.


If you do the same things with goals (arguably a better predictor of NHL success than points), here are the top 40:

1 Mario 121
2 Crosby 107
3 Stamkos 92
4 Tavares 91
5 Lindros 87

6 Brendl 87
7 Kane 83
8 Tanguay 83
9 Lafontaine 80
10 Drouin 80

11 Briere 80
12 Skinner 75
13 P. Turgeon 75
14 Langkow 72
15 Hawerchuk 72

16 Gratton 72
17 Lupul 71
18 Convery 71
19 Bellows 70
20 Legwand 70

21 Spezza 69
22 E. Kane 69
23 Hall 68
24 Lecavalier 67
25 Seguin 66

26 Nolan 66
27 Falloon 66
28 Primeau 66
29 Warriner 65
30 Huberdeau 65

31 Niedermeyer 64
32 Brassard 64
33 Bernier 64
34 Ricci 63
35 E. Staal 63

36 MacKinnon 63
37 Gelinas 63
38 Carson 63
39 D. Roy 62
40 Brule 62
very enlightening post, thank you!

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Old
03-13-2013, 09:19 PM
  #209
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thanks, great post decma.

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Old
03-13-2013, 10:20 PM
  #210
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So...what you're saying is Drouin is a hockey player?

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Old
03-13-2013, 11:03 PM
  #211
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I think he's just posting interesting numbers and not trying to imply anything... not sure though, I was wondering that a bit too "what's your point?" thinking it's just intended as interesting stats tho.

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Old
03-14-2013, 07:41 AM
  #212
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheTechNoir View Post
I think he's just posting interesting numbers and not trying to imply anything... not sure though, I was wondering that a bit too "what's your point?" thinking it's just intended as interesting stats tho.
I think hes just trying to show that no matter what era or CHL league you compare Drouin to, hes scoring at a pace like only few in history have at his age.

Having said that, playing on the Mooseheads is like playing on an all-star team/ pick up game most nights, so I'm sure if you adjusted the numbers relative to team's goals he would dip a little bit.

Extremely impressive though.

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Old
03-14-2013, 09:34 AM
  #213
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Ya but the same an be said for other payers as well, Crosby played on a great team as did a lot of those guys.

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Old
03-14-2013, 11:00 AM
  #214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cujomi View Post
So...what you're saying is Drouin is a hockey player?
jukon and hab 4ever were having a discussion about how Drouin's numbers this year stack up against those of Yakupov, RNH, Hall, Tavares and Stamkos, and the effects of league-wide scoring levels on the raw numbers. I had already crunched the numbers on this, covering the entire modern era of the draft, so thought it would be worth sharing.

It also helps show that not only is Drouin a good hockey player, but that, statistically, he is the best forward draft prospect since Kane (in terms of points) or Tavares (in terms of goals). By either metric, he is significantly better than Hall, Seguin, RNH, Yakupov, and all the other guys taken out of the CHL since 09, and one of the top 10 going back 32 seasons.

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Old
03-14-2013, 12:19 PM
  #215
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Originally Posted by Codith View Post
Ya but the same an be said for other payers as well, Crosby played on a great team as did a lot of those guys.
Crosby was that team. I don't think there is one other player off that team in the NHL right now. Compare that to Kane for example who had Kostitsyn, and Gagner - there is no comparison...

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Old
03-14-2013, 01:40 PM
  #216
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Quote:
Originally Posted by decma View Post
Q scoring has gone up after Christmas and I believe the league is now at 6.98 goals per game.

But this is still lower than the OHL's 7.46 during Kane's draft eligible season
(2006/2007).

Normalizing all the data to 8 goals per game, and projecting each player's points per game over 80 games, here are the top 40 draft-eligible major junior seasons by forwards since 1981.


1 Crosby 05 Q 266
2 Mario 84 Q 257
3 Kane 07 O 204
4 Drouin 13 Q 201
5 Briere 96 Q 197

6 Lafontaine 83 Q 187
7 Brendl 99 W 186
8 Spezza 01 O 185
9 Lindros 91 O 183
10 Gagner 07 O 183

11 Daigle 93 Q 183
12 Bouchard, PM 02 Q 182
13 Lecavalier 98 Q 177
14 Hall 10 O 167
15 Tavares 09 O 167

16 Hawerchuk 81 Q 163
17 Savard, M 91 O 163
18 Brassard Q 06 163
19 Turgeon, P 87 Q 161
20 Thornton 87 O 161

21 Little 06 O 154
22 MacKinnon 13 Q 154
23 Stamkos 08 O 154
24 Langkow 95 W 153
25 Ribeiro 98 Q 152

26 Tanguay 98 Q 151
27 Gratton 93 O 150
28 Couturier 11 Q 150
29 Huberdeau 11 Q 150
30 Damphousse 85 Q 149

31 Staal, E 03 O 148
32 Richards, B 98 Q 145
33 Seguin 10 O 145
34 Falloon 91 W 145
35 Bellows 82 O 145

36 Primeau 90 O 144
37 Ryan 05 O 143
38 Marleau 97 W 143
39 Turgeon, S 83 O 142
40 Nugent-Hopkins 11 W 142



A few observations:
1) Drouin is having some kind of year.

2) the list is dominated by Q players. Even controlling for league scoring levels by normalizing to 8 goals per game, Q fwds take 5 of top 6 spots (and 18 of top 40. O with 17 in top 40 and W with only 5).

3) If guys score at that clip as 17/18 year olds in major junior, they almost definitely will be able to score at NHL level (only complete bust on the list in Brendl) and should not be passed over in draft. Six on that list slipped past the top 10 of the draft - Biere 24th, Savard 91st, Little 12th, Ribeiro 45th, Tanguay 12th, and Richards 64th. Jury still out on Little, but the other 5 are (or were) top 6 forwards with some seasons at all-star level.


If you do the same things with goals (arguably a better predictor of NHL success than points), here are the top 40:

1 Mario 121
2 Crosby 107
3 Stamkos 92
4 Tavares 91
5 Lindros 87

6 Brendl 87
7 Kane 83
8 Tanguay 83
9 Lafontaine 80
10 Drouin 80

11 Briere 80
12 Skinner 75
13 P. Turgeon 75
14 Langkow 72
15 Hawerchuk 72

16 Gratton 72
17 Lupul 71
18 Convery 71
19 Bellows 70
20 Legwand 70

21 Spezza 69
22 E. Kane 69
23 Hall 68
24 Lecavalier 67
25 Seguin 66

26 Nolan 66
27 Falloon 66
28 Primeau 66
29 Warriner 65
30 Huberdeau 65

31 Niedermeyer 64
32 Brassard 64
33 Bernier 64
34 Ricci 63
35 E. Staal 63

36 MacKinnon 63
37 Gelinas 63
38 Carson 63
39 D. Roy 62
40 Brule 62
In contention for the most insightful post ever on HfBoards. Dead Serious.

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Old
03-14-2013, 01:51 PM
  #217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by decma View Post
Q scoring has gone up after Christmas and I believe the league is now at 6.98 goals per game.

But this is still lower than the OHL's 7.46 during Kane's draft eligible season
(2006/2007).

Normalizing all the data to 8 goals per game, and projecting each player's points per game over 80 games, here are the top 40 draft-eligible major junior seasons by forwards since 1981.


1 Crosby 05 Q 266
2 Mario 84 Q 257
3 Kane 07 O 204
4 Drouin 13 Q 201
5 Briere 96 Q 197

6 Lafontaine 83 Q 187
7 Brendl 99 W 186
8 Spezza 01 O 185
9 Lindros 91 O 183
10 Gagner 07 O 183

11 Daigle 93 Q 183
12 Bouchard, PM 02 Q 182
13 Lecavalier 98 Q 177
14 Hall 10 O 167
15 Tavares 09 O 167

16 Hawerchuk 81 Q 163
17 Savard, M 91 O 163
18 Brassard Q 06 163
19 Turgeon, P 87 Q 161
20 Thornton 87 O 161

21 Little 06 O 154
22 MacKinnon 13 Q 154
23 Stamkos 08 O 154
24 Langkow 95 W 153
25 Ribeiro 98 Q 152

26 Tanguay 98 Q 151
27 Gratton 93 O 150
28 Couturier 11 Q 150
29 Huberdeau 11 Q 150
30 Damphousse 85 Q 149

31 Staal, E 03 O 148
32 Richards, B 98 Q 145
33 Seguin 10 O 145
34 Falloon 91 W 145
35 Bellows 82 O 145

36 Primeau 90 O 144
37 Ryan 05 O 143
38 Marleau 97 W 143
39 Turgeon, S 83 O 142
40 Nugent-Hopkins 11 W 142



A few observations:
1) Drouin is having some kind of year.

2) the list is dominated by Q players. Even controlling for league scoring levels by normalizing to 8 goals per game, Q fwds take 5 of top 6 spots (and 18 of top 40. O with 17 in top 40 and W with only 5).

3) If guys score at that clip as 17/18 year olds in major junior, they almost definitely will be able to score at NHL level (only complete bust on the list in Brendl) and should not be passed over in draft. Six on that list slipped past the top 10 of the draft - Biere 24th, Savard 91st, Little 12th, Ribeiro 45th, Tanguay 12th, and Richards 64th. Jury still out on Little, but the other 5 are (or were) top 6 forwards with some seasons at all-star level.


If you do the same things with goals (arguably a better predictor of NHL success than points), here are the top 40:

1 Mario 121
2 Crosby 107
3 Stamkos 92
4 Tavares 91
5 Lindros 87

6 Brendl 87
7 Kane 83
8 Tanguay 83
9 Lafontaine 80
10 Drouin 80

11 Briere 80
12 Skinner 75
13 P. Turgeon 75
14 Langkow 72
15 Hawerchuk 72

16 Gratton 72
17 Lupul 71
18 Convery 71
19 Bellows 70
20 Legwand 70

21 Spezza 69
22 E. Kane 69
23 Hall 68
24 Lecavalier 67
25 Seguin 66

26 Nolan 66
27 Falloon 66
28 Primeau 66
29 Warriner 65
30 Huberdeau 65

31 Niedermeyer 64
32 Brassard 64
33 Bernier 64
34 Ricci 63
35 E. Staal 63

36 MacKinnon 63
37 Gelinas 63
38 Carson 63
39 D. Roy 62
40 Brule 62
This is great. Well done.

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Old
03-14-2013, 02:17 PM
  #218
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Drouin is having one of the best 17 year old seasons in CHL history, maybe rivalled only by Sid. People have to remember that Mario's record breaking season occurred when Mario was 18, same as Patrick Kane.

Not only is Drouin putting up ridiculous numbers, but he has played under 100 junior hockey games

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Old
03-14-2013, 03:16 PM
  #219
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Quote:
Originally Posted by decma View Post
jukon and hab 4ever were having a discussion about how Drouin's numbers this year stack up against those of Yakupov, RNH, Hall, Tavares and Stamkos, and the effects of league-wide scoring levels on the raw numbers. I had already crunched the numbers on this, covering the entire modern era of the draft, so thought it would be worth sharing.

It also helps show that not only is Drouin a good hockey player, but that, statistically, he is the best forward draft prospect since Kane (in terms of points) or Tavares (in terms of goals). By either metric, he is significantly better than Hall, Seguin, RNH, Yakupov, and all the other guys taken out of the CHL since 09, and one of the top 10 going back 32 seasons.
Don't worry I was only kidding. I've been saying for a while that Drouin is the can't miss prospect from this draft. He is going to be a superstar and I just wish it was with Ottawa. Unfortunately it looks like it will be with Florida the way they are going. Either way...he's 'the Next Gretzky' 2.0...only Sid will rival him in the NHL if he continues to grow and play the way he has.

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Old
03-14-2013, 03:34 PM
  #220
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Originally Posted by Cujomi View Post
Don't worry I was only kidding. I've been saying for a while that Drouin is the can't miss prospect from this draft. He is going to be a superstar and I just wish it was with Ottawa. Unfortunately it looks like it will be with Florida the way they are going. Either way...he's 'the Next Gretzky' 2.0...only Sid will rival him in the NHL if he continues to grow and play the way he has.
Not sure if serious?

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Old
03-14-2013, 03:35 PM
  #221
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Great post decma!

I looked heavier into the stats as well - here's part of my write-up on Mackinnon vs. Drouin taking both stats and views together into the debate.

Quote:
In 35 games they’ve played together so far this season:

Drouin (35-29-43-72) has 14 goals and 14 assists that don’t involve Mackinnon. He’s had 15 goals assisted by Mackinnon

Mackinnon (35-20-35-58) has 8 goals and 8 assists that don’t involve Drouin. He’s had 12 goals assisted by Drouin.

There has been 17 times where the two have captured both assists on a linemates goal.

These numbers mean that when they play together, 76% of Mackinnons production involves Drouin and 61% of Drouins production involves Mackinnon. I’m no expert on the production relationship of these statistics, but 76% seems pretty high for a linemate.

This tells me at least what many seem to think already – Drouin is the better offensive player. But after I factor in the differences I have seen in 15+ games on defense, which cannot be measured (board play, help down low, backchecking etc.) I still see Nathan Mackinnon being the more polished and ready prospect.
http://www.thescoutingreport.org/the...non-or-drouin/

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03-14-2013, 06:59 PM
  #222
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i would agree with that assertion. if it wasn't conclusive yet in the play offs last yr then in the first few games of this season it became glaringly obvious that Drouin was a more skilled offensive talent, that has never been in question. Honestly I have no idea between him and Mac who will be better but if having to choose I side with low confidence on Mac being the better prospect right now. that isn't to take away from other parts of Jon's game either. Mac just has no weaknesses and he appears more ready right now. when Jon does reach nhl tho I think his learning curve will be overcome rapidly.

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Old
03-15-2013, 06:24 PM
  #223
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Drouin has an assist already tonight, point streak goes on!!! What's it at now, like, 29 games?? Kid is ******* unbelievable!!!!


Last edited by Kurdt Kobain: 03-16-2013 at 12:41 AM.
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Old
03-15-2013, 08:33 PM
  #224
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Drouin-Tavares-Strome



would be all kinds of filthy

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Old
03-16-2013, 04:46 PM
  #225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StrongIslanders90 View Post
Drouin-Tavares-Strome
One of these things is not like the others.

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