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How to draft Seth Jones?

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Old
03-14-2013, 10:48 AM
  #26
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Originally Posted by JackStraw View Post
I don't know... Dougie Hamilton is fitting in pretty well for the Bruins. Granted, they have a more defense-friendly system, but still. The Flyers are sufficiently well stocked at forward that it would make sense for them to try to stock up on young D and G in any case.
No doubt they should stock up on D and G, but that could be done later in the draft. Defensemen are so hard to predict. Erik Johnson was suppose to be a stud. Hamilton is doing great this year but so did Tyler Myers his rookie year and has stumbled with consistency since. Coburn looked like a future Norris candidate his 1st full year before the puck to the eye and has never really regained that form or progressed since then. The best defenseman in the draft could be taken in round 2, just like in 2003 (Weber).

If they can trade up for relatively cheap, it would be a good move but I would be find taking Drouin, Barkov or Mackinnon and stocking up on defensemen and another goalie after. Save those trade assets for getting another more experienced young dman.

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03-14-2013, 11:12 AM
  #27
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Pretty sure Drouin will go 1st overall.

2nd is a toss up between mackinnon or jones.

So id say we at least would have to hold the 2nd overall pick to get jones.

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03-14-2013, 11:13 AM
  #28
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I'm probably alone on this one, but I don't like drafting defenseman lol. We know the team needs a #1 D, but drafting an 18 year old isn't going to help that for at least 4-5 years from now.

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03-14-2013, 11:20 AM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Protest View Post
I'm probably alone on this one, but I don't like drafting defenseman lol. We know the team needs a #1 D, but drafting an 18 year old isn't going to help that for at least 4-5 years from now.
I think Jones could help you out earlier than that assuming he pans out.


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03-14-2013, 11:26 AM
  #30
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So many people always have this "don't draft defenseman" mindset or this "draft BPA even if it doesn't fill a need" mindset.

Well that's not going to fix this team is it? Well be sitting here having this exact same discussion 4 years from now when we have no competent defensemen

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03-14-2013, 11:35 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Protest View Post
I'm probably alone on this one, but I don't like drafting defenseman lol. We know the team needs a #1 D, but drafting an 18 year old isn't going to help that for at least 4-5 years from now.
You are alone.
The only way to get a #1 is to draft them or AbSurdly overpay in a trade.

We wouldn't be in this situation today if we had actually drafted some d men 4-5 years ago, gotta start sometime.

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03-14-2013, 11:36 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
Pretty sure Drouin will go 1st overall.

2nd is a toss up between mackinnon or jones.

So id say we at least would have to hold the 2nd overall pick to get jones.
I agree with you, we need to be in at worst 2nd for jones.

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03-14-2013, 11:37 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
Pretty sure Drouin will go 1st overall.

2nd is a toss up between mackinnon or jones.

So id say we at least would have to hold the 2nd overall pick to get jones.
I don't see Drouin going 1st. I think he's better than Mackinnon but he's not a for sure thing to be playing in the NHL next year. Where as Jones and Mackinnon are pretty much locks to be playing in the NHL next year. I think whoever's drafting 1st would want a guy they can insert into the lineup next year.

I could see these scenarios working out if a team drafts by need with the 1st pick:

1st- Jones
2nd- Drouin
3rd- Mackinnon
or
1st- Mackinnon
2nd- Jones
3rd- Drouin


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03-14-2013, 11:40 AM
  #34
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Start rumors of a Flyers relocation to Kansas City, then wait for Bettman to rig the draft

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03-14-2013, 11:42 AM
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Pretty sure Jones will go 1st.

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03-14-2013, 11:55 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by achdumeingute View Post
You are alone.
The only way to get a #1 is to draft them or AbSurdly overpay in a trade.

We wouldn't be in this situation today if we had actually drafted some d men 4-5 years ago, gotta start sometime.
We have drafted D men, and none of them have worked out.

I think I'd rather overpay for a proven young defenseman that a different organization has groomed than trust the one this team drafts.

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03-14-2013, 12:20 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
It very well might be with Mackinnon and Barkov there, and for those two I would be fine with it. The top 4 of this draft all have superstar potential. Seth Jones looks like a stud but he will struggle for a few years like all defensemen. He won't cure the Flyers problems next year or for a couple years, so I wouldnt want to trade any big assets to move up if the Flyers are picking top 4 and can get one of Drouin, Mackinnon, Jones, or Barkov for free.
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Originally Posted by Protest View Post
We have drafted D men, and none of them have worked out.

I think I'd rather overpay for a proven young defenseman that a different organization has groomed than trust the one this team drafts.
In recent years ("recent years" meaning the last couple of decades) the Flyers have taken three defensemen in the first round (that fact alone is pretty embarrassing). Sbisa, Pitkanen, and Woywitka. I don't think you can compare any of them to Jones.

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03-14-2013, 12:26 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Protest View Post
I'm probably alone on this one, but I don't like drafting defenseman lol. We know the team needs a #1 D, but drafting an 18 year old isn't going to help that for at least 4-5 years from now.
I agree with this.

Id rather draft Drouin or Mackinnon... let them tear it up and then trade em for oel or bogosian or someone

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03-14-2013, 12:31 PM
  #39
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How do we know how good our team is at developing defensemen when we never draft defensemen? Of course when 8 of 10 picks are centers a few of them are bound to pan out

People tend to forget that sbisa came in and played right out of the draft... Obviously someone in there has some ability to judge talent.

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03-14-2013, 12:34 PM
  #40
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If we pick and Seth Jones is there, we have to take him because he will be the BPA. Either at 1,2 or 3.

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03-14-2013, 12:36 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
How do we know how good our team is at developing defensemen when we never draft defensemen? Of course when 8 of 10 picks are centers a few of them are bound to pan out

People tend to forget that sbisa came in and played right out of the draft... Obviously someone in there has some ability to judge talent.
Sbisa was a decent pick. Bourdon wasn't bad either until his head exploded. Marshall was a dud. I think the problem is that the Flyers don't draft enough defensemen, especially high. Not using 2nd rd picks is big too as there are a lot of good defensemen coming out of the 2nd rd.

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03-14-2013, 12:44 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
How do we know how good our team is at developing defensemen when we never draft defensemen? Of course when 8 of 10 picks are centers a few of them are bound to pan out

People tend to forget that sbisa came in and played right out of the draft... Obviously someone in there has some ability to judge talent.
I agree with this. It's hard to know if you can develop Defensemen or not when you rarely spend high picks on them.

A lot of people look at Nashville as the gold standard for developing Defensemen and look at all their top guys were in taken in the 1st or 2nd.

Teams are going to strike out on defensemen more than they would with forwards but if you don't try to take defensemen you're going to be in the same place as we are now.

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03-14-2013, 12:46 PM
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I agree with this.

Id rather draft Drouin or Mackinnon... let them tear it up and then trade em for oel or bogosian or someone
What makes you think there's any more of a chance that Drouin or mackinnon will be good enough to land you someone like OEL in a trade than jones will be just as good or better than OEL or Bogosian? Doesn't make sense to me. If you have the option of picking jones, you pick him.

These aren't 3rd round picks were talking about here. If we draft jones I guarantee you he will be on the opening night roster and will never play a game in the ahl. "Development" won't matter. It will be all talent and ability at that point.

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03-14-2013, 12:47 PM
  #44
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I'm really on the fence about dealing away assets to move up 1-4 spaces for Jones. I think I'll save the brain cells and wait to see where this team ends up before deciding what works best.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Protest
I'm probably alone on this one, but I don't like drafting defenseman lol. We know the team needs a #1 D, but drafting an 18 year old isn't going to help that for at least 4-5 years from now.
There's only a whisper of a chance that a player like Jones needs 4-5 years to crack this line-up, and that would probably only be if he suffered an injury or something else pretty dramatic. Maybe an extra year in the minors, then start out on the bottom pairing. I'd be a bit leery about sending him to the Phantoms as it is, given the mediocre level of preparation for the big-league club that seems to be going on. Please feel free to contradict me.

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03-14-2013, 12:50 PM
  #45
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If Jones is drafted I wouldn't mind another year in Juniors for him. He wouldn't be able to play in the AHL though because of his age.

I don't think Jones goes back though when whoever drafts him.

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03-14-2013, 12:51 PM
  #46
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I'm really on the fence about dealing away assets to move up 1-4 spaces for Jones. I think I'll save the brain cells and wait to see where this team ends up before deciding what works best.


There's only a whisper of a chance that a player like Jones needs 4-5 years to crack this line-up, and that would probably only be if he suffered an injury or something else pretty dramatic. Maybe an extra year in the minors, then start out on the bottom pairing. I'd be a bit leery about sending him to the Phantoms as it is, given the mediocre level of preparation for the big-league club that seems to be going on. Please feel free to contradict me.
It would NHL or juniors next year for him. He's not eligible for the AHL next year. From my understanding he's not being challenged in the WHL and should be NHL ready for next year.

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03-14-2013, 12:51 PM
  #47
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You are alone.
The only way to get a #1 is to draft them or AbSurdly overpay in a trade.

We wouldn't be in this situation today if we had actually drafted some d men 4-5 years ago, gotta start sometime.
The Flyers can get good defenseive projects relatively easily. They could try to trade laughton to Minnesota for Dumba. They can try to trade cousins + noebels to Washington for Orlov. They can try to trade Timmonen + Gagne to Anaheim for Lindholm.

If the above trade fails, they should easily be able to get a first rounder for Timmonen and another first rounder for Briere and another first rounder for Coburn. Hopefully they can get more. If the Flyers get the 5th pick they can pick the bpa, which would probably be a forward, and still have 3 first round selections and an early 2nd rounder to select defenseman, such as Hagg, Ristotelian, and Poulout etc..

Lastly, they should try very very very very hard to try to sign a ncaa ufa defenseman that can help them now, such as Dekeyser or Sustr.

Bottom line is the situation is not Jones or fail. They can still create a healthy defensive prospect pool relatively easily .

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03-14-2013, 12:54 PM
  #48
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In recent years ("recent years" meaning the last couple of decades) the Flyers have taken three defensemen in the first round (that fact alone is pretty embarrassing). Sbisa, Pitkanen, and Woywitka. I don't think you can compare any of them to Jones.
I would think Pitkanen would be comparable as he was a top pick. He turned out pretty good, but wanted out. I also don't think anyone would consider him a franchise D man.

I'd also add that they traded for Coburn, Carle, and Mez in the past couple years. All were young, former 1st or 2nd round picks.

It looks like defensemen are breaking into the league at a younger age, and playing well. I'm just more leery of dmen than forwards, as their learning curve tends to be steeper and longer, and how volatile they can be early on.

I think that if you're looking for a fix right now than an 18 year old isn't the answer. If they draft Jones, they'll still need a #1 dman for at least 2 years and I think that's being extremely optimistic. All the young stud Dmen in the league are at least 22. Not old at all obviously, but still 4 years from where Jones is now.

It depends on the type of fix you're looking for. If you draft Jones and trade/sign a #1 that's different. But if you're expecting to just draft him, and pencil him into the top pairing like I see some people doing on here, I think you're being unrealistic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
How do we know how good our team is at developing defensemen when we never draft defensemen? Of course when 8 of 10 picks are centers a few of them are bound to pan out

People tend to forget that sbisa came in and played right out of the draft... Obviously someone in there has some ability to judge talent.
Sbisa played and then was sent down and hasn't become anything since.

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Originally Posted by BernieParent View Post
There's only a whisper of a chance that a player like Jones needs 4-5 years to crack this line-up, and that would probably only be if he suffered an injury or something else pretty dramatic. Maybe an extra year in the minors, then start out on the bottom pairing. I'd be a bit leery about sending him to the Phantoms as it is, given the mediocre level of preparation for the big-league club that seems to be going on. Please feel free to contradict me.
No I agree. But playing with the team, and being the answer at the #1 d spot aren't the same thing.

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03-14-2013, 12:59 PM
  #49
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It would NHL or juniors next year for him. He's not eligible for the AHL next year. From my understanding he's not being challenged in the WHL and should be NHL ready for next year.
That's what I thought but was too lazy to look it up. I tried to post something bet-hedging (ie, 1 year in the minors) and suggesting the Phantoms as a semi-separate point.

Overexplaining my posts, as usual.

This situation with Jones is the shame of the current age restrictions. A player is head and shoulders better (literally and figuratively) than his league, but can't step up to the next level (ie, AHL).

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03-14-2013, 01:04 PM
  #50
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Versteeg's out for the year now. Florida's just getting worse and worse by the day. Going to be tough to suck more than them.

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