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How to draft Seth Jones?

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Old
03-14-2013, 01:08 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by Protest View Post
I would think Pitkanen would be comparable as he was a top pick. He turned out pretty good, but wanted out. I also don't think anyone would consider him a franchise D man.

I'd also add that they traded for Coburn, Carle, and Mez in the past couple years. All were young, former 1st or 2nd round picks.

It looks like defensemen are breaking into the league at a younger age, and playing well. I'm just more leery of dmen than forwards, as their learning curve tends to be steeper and longer, and how volatile they can be early on.

I think that if you're looking for a fix right now than an 18 year old isn't the answer. If they draft Jones, they'll still need a #1 dman for at least 2 years and I think that's being extremely optimistic. All the young stud Dmen in the league are at least 22. Not old at all obviously, but still 4 years from where Jones is now.

It depends on the type of fix you're looking for. If you draft Jones and trade/sign a #1 that's different. But if you're expecting to just draft him, and pencil him into the top pairing like I see some people doing on here, I think you're being unrealistic.



Sbisa played and then was sent down and hasn't become anything since.



No I agree. But playing with the team, and being the answer at the #1 d spot aren't the same thing.
I disagree about sbisa. He's played in 24 games for the ducks this year and has 7 points in that span getting little ice time. Ducks fans are very high on his future and I believe he'll be a good top 4 defenseman at the nhl level for a while.

Your point about jones is confusing. You're saying you dont want to pick him because you don't think he can become the #1 we need right away and will take years to fulfil that potential?

I really don't get this stance. Jones has obvious franchise defenseman potential. His ceiling and his talent level is huge. There's a good chance he could immediately become our best defenseman.

I don't understand not drafting a guy who's potential is so great because he might not be as great his first couple years.

Guess what, this team as is is more than a couple years from being a real contender, there's just too many holes.

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03-14-2013, 01:17 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
How do we know how good our team is at developing defensemen when we never draft defensemen? Of course when 8 of 10 picks are centers a few of them are bound to pan out

People tend to forget that sbisa came in and played right out of the draft... Obviously someone in there has some ability to judge talent.
I'm not really disagreeing with you.

Teams should draft to their strengths in talent evaluation. Flyers know this. Certainly, they may have someone who is good at picking defensemen, but that guy or group might be a little less talented than those who are picking forwards, in which case you should still pick forwards or BPA that fits your organizational philosophy. The Flyers can nail a good forward with their scouts, then flip one of their many talented forwards to a team that knows defensemen better.

Jones is an outlier though. Any team who can pick him, should.


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03-14-2013, 01:18 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Protest View Post
We have drafted D men, and none of them have worked out.

I think I'd rather overpay for a proven young defenseman that a different organization has groomed than trust the one this team drafts.
What 1st round talent d man have we drafted in the last 8 years (homers influence) that hasn't worked out?

The answer is zero by the way...because we haven't drafted anyone because
most of the time we don't have draft picks.

It's pretty hard to say we can't develop defenseman when we have drafted what, 2 in the first 2 rounds in 10 years. One of which plays pretty good for Carolina, the other didn't work out.

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03-14-2013, 01:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Protest View Post
I would think Pitkanen would be comparable as he was a top pick. He turned out pretty good, but wanted out. I also don't think anyone would consider him a franchise D man.

I'd also add that they traded for Coburn, Carle, and Mez in the past couple years. All were young, former 1st or 2nd round picks.

It looks like defensemen are breaking into the league at a younger age, and playing well. I'm just more leery of dmen than forwards, as their learning curve tends to be steeper and longer, and how volatile they can be early on.

I think that if you're looking for a fix right now than an 18 year old isn't the answer. If they draft Jones, they'll still need a #1 dman for at least 2 years and I think that's being extremely optimistic. All the young stud Dmen in the league are at least 22. Not old at all obviously, but still 4 years from where Jones is now.

It depends on the type of fix you're looking for. If you draft Jones and trade/sign a #1 that's different. But if you're expecting to just draft him, and pencil him into the top pairing like I see some people doing on here, I think you're being unrealistic.



Sbisa played and then was sent down and hasn't become anything since.



No I agree. But playing with the team, and being the answer at the #1 d spot aren't the same thing.
Well, Sbisa is playing top 4 minutes on the team with the second most points in the league. He's a +3 which is better than any defensemen on the Flyers. Not saying he's a franchise defenseman but I think he's going to have a solid career.

I could see Jones playing Juniors next year, then joining the Flyers when his Junior season ends. And I think if that were to happen he would be up for good. If the Flyers actually drafted him it wouldn't surprise me if he made the team next year out of TC. He's one of the older players in his draft class so he's probably a bit more mature (physically) than most of them. He won't be a top pairing guy right away but he could get significant playing time. And the Flyers absolutely should NOT be looking for a quick fix anyway. That's been the M.O. for years and it hasn't worked. I can be patient if I'm convinced the team is going in the right direction.

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03-14-2013, 01:21 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Prongo View Post
If Jones is drafted I wouldn't mind another year in Juniors for him. He wouldn't be able to play in the AHL though because of his age.

I don't think Jones goes back though when whoever drafts him.
I thought American players who join Juniors late can leave early for the AHL. Anybody know for a fact?

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03-14-2013, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
I disagree about sbisa. He's played in 24 games for the ducks this year and has 7 points in that span getting little ice time. Ducks fans are very high on his future and I believe he'll be a good top 4 defenseman at the nhl level for a while.

Your point about jones is confusing. You're saying you dont want to pick him because you don't think he can become the #1 we need right away and will take years to fulfil that potential?

I really don't get this stance. Jones has obvious franchise defenseman potential. His ceiling and his talent level is huge. There's a good chance he could immediately become our best defenseman.

I don't understand not drafting a guy who's potential is so great because he might not be as great his first couple years.

Guess what, this team as is is more than a couple years from being a real contender, there's just too many holes.
I'm saying if you're looking to fill the #1 D man hole immediately drafting an 18 year old isn't the answer. I think saying there's a good chance he is immediately their best dman is completely ridiculous.

Erik Karlsson is the best example of a young dynamite defenseman, and he wasn't that until he was 21. Again that sounds weird because 21 is ridiculously young, but its also 3 years away for Jones.

I'm not saying to not draft him, I'm not saying I'd be mad that they did, I'd be fine with it. However, I won't be pissed if they took a forward who is more likely to contribute at a younger age. If they want to compete, and turn this thing around in the next year or 2 Jones won't be the #1 guy they desperately need in that time, unless he is some generational talent.

He may be the long term solution there, and that's perfectly fine with me. But I see people expecting him to step into the league, be amazing, and solve the teams D problems immediately...that just doesn't happen often.

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03-14-2013, 01:26 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by briererocks View Post
The Flyers can get good defenseive projects relatively easily. They could try to trade laughton to Minnesota for Dumba. They can try to trade cousins + noebels to Washington for Orlov. They can try to trade Timmonen + Gagne to Anaheim for Lindholm.

If the above trade fails, they should easily be able to get a first rounder for Timmonen and another first rounder for Briere and another first rounder for Coburn. Hopefully they can get more. If the Flyers get the 5th pick they can pick the bpa, which would probably be a forward, and still have 3 first round selections and an early 2nd rounder to select defenseman, such as Hagg, Ristotelian, and Poulout etc..

Lastly, they should try very very very very hard to try to sign a ncaa ufa defenseman that can help them now, such as Dekeyser or Sustr.

Bottom line is the situation is not Jones or fail. They can still create a healthy defensive prospect pool relatively easily .
If it was just that easy perhaps you should be applying for a GM job.

Why is minn gonna do that, why is wsh gonna do that, ANH won't trade lindholm....come on!

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03-14-2013, 01:27 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
I thought American players who join Juniors late can leave early for the AHL. Anybody know for a fact?
No it doesn't matter how many years you play in juniors prior to the draft. If you are selected out of the CHL for the draft then the same rules apply.

Jones is a late birthday so I believe he would have to play next year in the WHL and then would be eligible for the AHL the following year. I'm not 100% on that one but to your original question I'm know for sure that's the rule.


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03-14-2013, 01:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Protest View Post
I'm saying if you're looking to fill the #1 D man hole immediately drafting an 18 year old isn't the answer. I think saying there's a good chance he is immediately their best dman is completely ridiculous.

Erik Karlsson is the best example of a young dynamite defenseman, and he wasn't that until he was 21. Again that sounds weird because 21 is ridiculously young, but its also 3 years away for Jones.

I'm not saying to not draft him, I'm not saying I'd be mad that they did, I'd be fine with it. However, I won't be pissed if they took a forward who is more likely to contribute at a younger age. If they want to compete, and turn this thing around in the next year or 2 Jones won't be the #1 guy they desperately need in that time, unless he is some generational talent.

He may be the long term solution there, and that's perfectly fine with me. But I see people expecting him to step into the league, be amazing, and solve the teams D problems immediately...that just doesn't happen often.
I understand what you're saying I just don't get the idea.

You have two young players you can take. One is a defenseman one is a center. Your teams centers are a strength and your teams defense is a glaring weakness. Both players have franchise potential but the center may have a better chance of making a difference earlier than the defenseman. Your team just missed the playoffs and has one of the worst defenses in the world.

Why would you not pick the defensemen? Your team is going to show you more of the same unless the problem is rectified. Picking a player at an area of strength because he can contribute earlier than the player at an area of obvious weakness is completely irrelevant because that production still means nothing considering that glaring weakness remains unresolved.

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03-14-2013, 01:29 PM
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Originally Posted by achdumeingute View Post
What 1st round talent d man have we drafted in the last 8 years (homers influence) that hasn't worked out?

The answer is zero by the way...because we haven't drafted anyone because
most of the time we don't have draft picks.

It's pretty hard to say we can't develop defenseman when we have drafted what, 2 in the first 2 rounds in 10 years. One of which plays pretty good for Carolina, the other didn't work out.
They've traded for young 1st round talent dmen. They also have taken a a good amount in the 2nd-3rd. If you're picking in the 1st round there should be an abundance of skill there anyway, not as much development needed.

Bartulis, Rathchuk, Bodrov, Marshall, Bourdon, Bertilsson were all second round picks if I remember correctly.

I'm not saying Jones would suck if he came here, but I'm not opposed to taking a forward, and trading for/signing a dman.

Quote:
Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
I understand what you're saying I just don't get the idea.

You have two young players you can take. One is a defenseman one is a center. Your teams centers are a strength and your teams defense is a glaring weakness. Both players have franchise potential but the center may have a better chance of making a difference earlier than the defenseman. Your team just missed the playoffs and has one of the worst defenses in the world.

Why would you not pick the defensemen? Your team is going to show you more of the same unless the problem is rectified. Picking a player at an area of strength because he can contribute earlier than the player at an area of obvious weakness is completely irrelevant because that production still means nothing considering that glaring weakness remains unresolved.
I understand. I wouldn't be upset if they took him, but I don't agree that he'll be the answer as soon as he steps on the ice. That's why I'm not opposed to getting someone else in the draft and going about acquiring a dman another way. I am more leery of defenseman though because they are usually less of a sure thing than forwards.

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03-14-2013, 01:33 PM
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Pretend for a moment that the Flyers get Barkov / MacKinnon / Droin based on luck.

Would anyone shed a tear then flipping Couts + 1st in 2014 (or a late 1st rounder -- pretend we get that for Briere) for a legit #1 prospect with 2 years NHL experience under his belt?

This is entirely hypothetical - not even probable, but I want to know your mood. I doubt people here would care that much about losing Couts if another great forward prospect and legit D-man were coming back that quickly.

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03-14-2013, 01:34 PM
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I understand what you're saying I just don't get the idea.

You have two young players you can take. One is a defenseman one is a center. Your teams centers are a strength and your teams defense is a glaring weakness. Both players have franchise potential but the center may have a better chance of making a difference earlier than the defenseman.
You also have to ask, given the team's situation how much is that center really going to contribute? They could draft MacKinnon but he's not going to displace Giroux or Schenn next year. Doubtful that he would even displace Couturier, given the role Couts plays on the team. At some point you have to stop stockpiling centers, and the Flyers are already past that point.

None of the guys they have has really shown much promise at wing, maybe MacK would but why bother? If you're the Flyers and you have a chance to draft Jones you do it and you go from there.

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03-14-2013, 01:38 PM
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Pretend for a moment that the Flyers get Barkov / MacKinnon / Droin based on luck.

Would anyone shed a tear then flipping Couts + 1st in 2014 (or a late 1st rounder -- pretend we get that for Briere) for a legit #1 prospect with 2 years NHL experience under his belt?

This is entirely hypothetical - not even probable, but I want to know your mood. I doubt people here would care that much about losing Couts if another great forward prospect and legit D-man were coming back that quickly.
The problem with that is that you have to find a willing trading partner who has what you want. And teams generally are not lining up to trade away franchise defensemen. You may get a 2nd tier type guy, or a vet (like Timonen or Pronger) but you're not likely to get a Pietro, or OEL, or somebody like that.

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03-14-2013, 01:39 PM
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If we draft number 4, I personally would do whatever it took, including packaging next year's first AND this year's second to move up the few slots to draft Seth Jones. I believe in him that much as a prospect.

Ideally, we can move Briere for a first, then package both of this year's first for Seth Jones, thus limiting the loss of our current draft selections.

Unfortunately, I still don't think we sustain quite this level of bad and end up selecting near the bottom oft he top 10.... too far to need to move to get Seth Jones.

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03-14-2013, 01:39 PM
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You also have to ask, given the team's situation how much is that center really going to contribute? They could draft MacKinnon but he's not going to displace Giroux or Schenn next year. Doubtful that he would even displace Couturier, given the role Couts plays on the team. At some point you have to stop stockpiling centers, and the Flyers are already past that point.

None of the guys they have has really shown much promise at wing, maybe MacK would but why bother? If you're the Flyers and you have a chance to draft Jones you do it and you go from there.
Are all the other consensus top players centers?

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03-14-2013, 01:47 PM
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Are all the other consensus top players centers?
Mackinnon and Barkov are. Drouin is naturally a centermen but plays wing right now for Halifax.

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03-14-2013, 01:52 PM
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If we do select 3-5 and Jones isn't an option I think we take the BPA which will be a forward. If it is a center, I think we will move one of them we have currentely for a defenseman. Now who or where that will be?? I don't know. Still so much uncertainties right now.

Also like someone else said, Florida is almost a lock for #1 now with all their injuries. They can't stay healthy. The have Hubby and Bjugs down there too. They might take Jones to already improve their good young defense.

Tampa also just put Vinny on IR so they might struggle for some time. This tanking won't go over so well without a major injury. And I do not want to wish an injury on one of our star players.

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03-14-2013, 01:53 PM
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Are all the other consensus top players centers?
Not necessarily, depends who you consider the "consensus" players to be. I was just commenting specifically on the post I replied to that mentioned centers. But MacKinnon is obviously, and I believe Drouin was prior to juniors. And it wouldn't surprise me if Drouin ended up at center in the NHL, given his quasi-magical puck handling skills.

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03-14-2013, 01:58 PM
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Barkov and Mackinnon are true 1st line center material, which Couturier and B.Schenn were never projected to be. I am also not so sure B. Schenn can't have success on the wing, just cause Laviolette was quick to pull him after a couple of games. He had success last year on the wing.

If the Flyers have a 2nd 1st rd pick or multiple 2nds, I would rather take the bulk approach to drafting dmen than use these assets to acquire one. Imagine if the Flyers drafted Carlson that year with Sbisa instead of trading for immediate help. I would take as many dmen as I can, just like the year Nashville took Suter, Klein, and then Weber. If they had traded that 2nd 2nd rd pick to move up and get someone better rated, they would have never had Weber.

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03-14-2013, 02:31 PM
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Also something to consider: if the Flyers have a top 4 pick and Jones is off the board, a team might be willing to give up a lot to move up and draft one of those elite centers. Does Columbus offer Moore plus a 1st to move 4 spots? Maybe more. Calgary could offer Baertschi plus a 1st. For a draft as deep as this, it might be more advantageous to move down a few spots and get Nurse or Ristolainen plus a player or more picks than to sell the farm for Seth Jones.

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03-14-2013, 02:34 PM
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Also something to consider: if the Flyers have a top 4 pick and Jones is off the board, a team might be willing to give up a lot to move up and draft one of those elite centers. Does Columbus offer Moore plus a 1st to move 4 spots? Maybe more. Calgary could offer Baertschi plus a 1st. For a draft as deep as this, it might be more advantageous to move down a few spots and get Nurse or Ristolainen plus a player or more picks than to sell the farm for Seth Jones.
Agreed. Wouldn't mind having one of those guys either.

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03-14-2013, 03:35 PM
  #72
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There are some people on this board that make some of the most embarrassing trade proposals. Gagne + Timonen for Lindholm???? Laughton for Dumba? Wth

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03-14-2013, 04:05 PM
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We need to start drafting majority defenseman every year. Look at trades.... Young dman are demanding more then young fwd in return. Look at Phoenix with all those young dman. They could trade two of them and get 3-5 dman and a top 6 fwd for each.

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03-14-2013, 04:14 PM
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I'd rather have Drouin, MacKinnon, or Barkov than Couturier. If we can't take Jones, I'd be more than happy with one of those three, then trade Couturier++ for our franchise defender.

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03-14-2013, 04:17 PM
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Jones is definitely going #1, even if it isn't the direct teams need, he holds more value then anyone. I'm a huge fan of Mac and Drouin, I think Drouin will put up Kane like numbers if not better, but Jones is a Pronger esq like franchise dman that comes around like once a decade. From what I have heard last year, the #1 pick was going to cost a team 2 1sts, and that includes a top10 pick. That was only for Yakupov.
I wouldn't go quite that far. He has a lot of Pronger-like qualities, but there's still some issue about Jones with regards to his hockey sense. If he hits his upside, yes, he most certainly is very Pronger-like, but that's a big IF.

In all fairness, all the defensemen available this year have some questions about their overall game. For instance, with Jones, there are questions about his hockey sense. In terms of the other guys, Josh Morrissey has questions about whether he can handle the physical part of the game. Ryan Pullock has questions about whether he can grasp defensive assignments (he was a forward until four years ago). Nikita Zadorov has questions about whether he has any offensive upside or not. Darnell Nurse has questions about his mental toughness.

I'm not slagging Jones because he has a wonderful skillset. However, Braydon Coburn and Erik Johnson also had wonderful skilsets around their draft time as well. The defensemen this year really are boom or bust. There's no middle ground. The thing currently working against the Flyers and defensemen is that this is a franchise that has trouble drafting, developing and grooming young defensemen. I feel comfortable with a guy like Terry Murray working with the young defensemen, but at the same time, am quite uncomfortable that Kjell Samuelsson works with them and not one has developed under his watch. If the Flyers would let Murray bring his own guys into Adirondack, I'd certainly feel more comfortable with the Flyers taking one of the defenders available this year.

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