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Are playoffs still makeable?

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Old
03-14-2013, 01:56 AM
  #101
shoop
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Given that teams play harder and games get tighter down the stretch tie games usually increase in frequency as well so I simply can't see anything less than 55pts making it in the west.
Agreed. As both Minnesota and NYR are in eighth spot and on a 54 point pace I would think 55 points is the number for either conference. That's just one extra point off the current playoff cutline to account for games tightening as the season nears its end.

The Oilers have 25 points and have played 26 games.

30 points in 22 games requires 12-4-6 or 14-6-2 or even a nearly impossible 10-2-10

fwiw the last Oilers furious late season charge to make the playoffs was 2000-01 when they went 13-4-5. (Technically 13-4-4-1 as the NHL was still recording teams' records with SOL and OTL in separate columns.)


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Old
03-14-2013, 04:30 AM
  #102
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One saving grace is that they have a lot of home games left (14 home, 8 away) and Rexall's atmosphere can inspire this team. They'd have to play lights out at home, winning 9 or 10 of 14 home games and 4 or 5 of 8 road games to be in the ball park. It's possible, but this team has to really put it together.

Another positive is the interesting stat the one that Van Diest (Edm Sun) mentions, "With Horcoff in the lineup, the Oilers are 6-2-1 this season. Without him, they went 4-9-4." Horcoff is in the line up again, so that's a positive. If the Shawn Horcoff winning percentage continues with this team, then they have a reasonable chance. It would have to look something like this in order to go down:

Detroit (win)
Nashville (win)
Sharks (win)
St. Louis (loss)
Columbus (win)
Vancouver x2 (2 losses)
Calgary x2 (2 wins)
Phoenix (win)
Minnesota (win)
Anaheim x2 (back-to-back at home; although Anaheim is awesome, back-to-backs are often a split: 1 win)
Chicago (win)

Nashville (win)
St. Louis (loss)
Calgary (win)
Vancouver (loss)
Kings (loss)
Anaheim (loss)
Colorado (win)
Minnesota (win)

So yeah--it's being really hopeful to think that they could do it, but I believe they could, if they continue their style of play from the last couple of games. They can play with anybody, and Rexall can be an awesome building, with tremendous fan support.

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Old
03-14-2013, 07:21 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Oiltankjob 4 93 64 View Post
We have 22 games left. But we have played the least home games at 10 . So this leaves us with 14 home 8 road games left. I think we can still squeak out 8th spot.
if they stay HEALTHY the remaining 22... its definitely possible. any key injuries, no way.

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Old
03-14-2013, 09:25 AM
  #104
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go 7-3-4 at home and 4-2-2 on the road and hope other teams lose their cool in a couple must win games and get in with a lowly 53

its so easy

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03-14-2013, 10:18 AM
  #105
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We'd have a much better chance if we srarted to win those 1 goal games instead of losing them.

My hopes for the playoffs is greatly diminished now compared to the beginning of the season, but I'll hold on to a little bit of blind faith.

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03-14-2013, 10:24 AM
  #106
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Not to be negative but this club is still 0-7 when tied after two periods, have had a lot of trouble over all winning games in regulation time, and were pretty lucky to keep the lead in Chicago. They did everything possible to blow a 4 goal lead. Essentially this team played one good period in Chicago, and 3 in Colorado. This being a team that just recently layed down for several games.

Thing with this team is its incredibly fragile. A team like this can go on a mini-run, sure, but when the wheels come off theres big problems. This is not a resilient team that can go on a big tear.

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03-15-2013, 08:53 AM
  #107
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Playoff Picture

It might seem a little early to think about the playoff picture, but it is what it is.

Looking at the odds :

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Edmonton.html

The worst that the Oilers can do, and still have a legit chance of making the playoffs, is if they go 13-7-2 over the next 22 games. That record gives them 2 out of 3 chance to make the playoffs. If they get 1 point less say 12-7-3 they drop 30 percentage points down to 33%. The dividing line is 28 pts over 22 games versus 27 pts. 14-8-0 gets it done as well, but also just barely. With 28 pts it's still not guaranteed.

With all the games being conference games, I think it's legit to call them must-win from here on out. If you figure on St. Louis ( 2 games ) Vancouver ( 3 games ) Anaheim ( 3 games ) we probably have to win 3-4 of these 8 to have a chance. That means for the remaining 14 games, we'd have to do something close to 11-3.

Hate to be a downer this early in the morning, but it don't look promising.

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Old
03-15-2013, 11:50 AM
  #108
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Old
03-15-2013, 11:57 AM
  #109
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Old
03-15-2013, 12:02 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpearson1968 View Post
It might seem a little early to think about the playoff picture, but it is what it is.

Looking at the odds :

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Edmonton.html

The worst that the Oilers can do, and still have a legit chance of making the playoffs, is if they go 13-7-2 over the next 22 games. That record gives them 2 out of 3 chance to make the playoffs. If they get 1 point less say 12-7-3 they drop 30 percentage points down to 33%. The dividing line is 28 pts over 22 games versus 27 pts. 14-8-0 gets it done as well, but also just barely. With 28 pts it's still not guaranteed.

With all the games being conference games, I think it's legit to call them must-win from here on out. If you figure on St. Louis ( 2 games ) Vancouver ( 3 games ) Anaheim ( 3 games ) we probably have to win 3-4 of these 8 to have a chance. That means for the remaining 14 games, we'd have to do something close to 11-3.

Hate to be a downer this early in the morning, but it don't look promising.
Just winning most of our home games gets this done.

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Old
03-15-2013, 12:08 PM
  #111
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Well, let's hope that they go on a nice winning streak of 7-8 games

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Old
03-15-2013, 12:17 PM
  #112
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Well, let's hope that they go on a nice winning streak of 7-8 games
the sad thing is, even if we did somehow miraculously go on a 7 game winning streak, we likely would only be in the playoffs by 1 or 2 points at that point

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Old
03-15-2013, 12:36 PM
  #113
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We haven't even been in the hunt with 22 games left for a few years, so that's better at least

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Old
03-15-2013, 12:37 PM
  #114
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I expected an actual picture, maybe a blizzard or the Eye of Sauron.

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Old
03-15-2013, 12:50 PM
  #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpearson1968 View Post
It might seem a little early to think about the playoff picture, but it is what it is.

Looking at the odds :

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Edmonton.html

The worst that the Oilers can do, and still have a legit chance of making the playoffs, is if they go 13-7-2 over the next 22 games. That record gives them 2 out of 3 chance to make the playoffs. If they get 1 point less say 12-7-3 they drop 30 percentage points down to 33%. The dividing line is 28 pts over 22 games versus 27 pts. 14-8-0 gets it done as well, but also just barely. With 28 pts it's still not guaranteed.

With all the games being conference games, I think it's legit to call them must-win from here on out. If you figure on St. Louis ( 2 games ) Vancouver ( 3 games ) Anaheim ( 3 games ) we probably have to win 3-4 of these 8 to have a chance. That means for the remaining 14 games, we'd have to do something close to 11-3.

Hate to be a downer this early in the morning, but it don't look promising.
the odds were 18% that we win the lottery and we did that so im not too concerned with odds.

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Old
03-15-2013, 12:58 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by T-Funk View Post
We haven't even been in the hunt with 22 games left for a few years, so that's better at least
I like this positivity. =)

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Old
03-15-2013, 01:44 PM
  #117
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I think our best shot is to go for the Division and key in on some games here. I think if we go 10-7-5 we can get in provided we beat the right teams. This is what I think it takes:

Detroit (win)
Nashville (loss in ot)
Sharks (loss in ot)
St. Louis (loss)
Columbus (win)
Vancouver x2 (2 wins)
Calgary x2 (2 wins)
Phoenix (loss)
Minnesota (win)
Anaheim x2 1 loss ot, 1 loss
Chicago (loss ot)

Nashville (win)
St. Louis (loss)
Calgary (win)
Vancouver (win)
Kings (loss in OT)
Anaheim (loss)
Colorado (win)
Minnesota (win)

Basically we need to win the rest of our divisional games in regulation and have 2 or 3wins on top of that.

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03-15-2013, 02:19 PM
  #118
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Let's pull off a miami Heat and run the table for 20 games or so.

Then we'll be ok.

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Old
03-15-2013, 02:21 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by McNutty780 View Post
Let's pull off a miami Heat and run the table for 20 games or so.

Then we'll be ok.
We might need to acquire Crosby, Malkin, and Claude Giroux first.

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Old
03-15-2013, 06:34 PM
  #120
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the sad thing is, even if we did somehow miraculously go on a 7 game winning streak, we likely would only be in the playoffs by 1 or 2 points at that point
Yup, with all the games being inter-conference, all the teams above you are playing each other, so even if there are no 3 pt games, your still losing ground to at least one team every game, even when we win a game, we only keep pace with half the teams...its even worse when there are 3 pt games with other teams, you can only gain 1 pt on one of the teams (if you win, that is) and you dont make up anything on the other...and if you lose ANY game from here on out, its pretty much over, thats way too much pressure for anybody, let alone a young, small team like ours.

We're not making it this year, sorry to say it, but it is pretty much impossible with the schedule the way it is...look at CBJ, they just went on a tear, and they arent even close to the playoffs, even though they are only 3 pts out, all the teams ahead of them have games in hand, so really they are probably 5-6 points out when those other teams catch up in games....the only way a team can make up ground is to go on a ridiculous run like the hawks or ducks, 8,9,10 in a row, something like that, and even then, your probably only in 7th or 8th and only by a point or 2 at that.

You basically have to win to keep pace and you also have to win in order to not lose pace with the teams ahead of you, not easy to do for anybody, let alone this team.

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03-16-2013, 12:26 AM
  #121
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Can see now we have no hope with this coach and pathetic move when in lead .

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03-16-2013, 12:46 AM
  #122
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Not with Krueger behind the bench and his third period heroic antics that work well for the opposition!

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03-16-2013, 12:47 AM
  #123
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crushing lost point

chance to get within 2 points of Detroit and now we're 5 points back...ouch ouch

gonna have to go 9-3-1 at home at minimum to have a sniff now...

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Old
03-16-2013, 01:18 AM
  #124
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Originally Posted by jadeddog View Post
the sad thing is, even if we did somehow miraculously go on a 7 game winning streak, we likely would only be in the playoffs by 1 or 2 points at that point
That's probably right. Then again, 10 points in the next 7 games and the Oil are probably only a couple points out of the playoffs.

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Old
03-16-2013, 01:19 AM
  #125
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Tonight killed those chances. From potentially 2 points out to 5 points back of 9th in less than 25 minutes. Ouch.


Last edited by Moonlapse Vertigo: 03-16-2013 at 01:26 AM.
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