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2013 NHL Draft Thread II (6/30, 3PM EDT)

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Old
03-15-2013, 11:37 PM
  #201
alphafox
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Originally Posted by kemisti View Post
Wow, I don't know whether to be happy or disturbed by these rankings. Lindholm @ 8? Wennberg @ 18! Domi @ 28!?! Erne is outside the top 30


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Originally Posted by Sore Loser View Post
Lazar at 11? Wow... and I'm a big Lazar fan...
Agreed, this ranking is a bit on the insane side, I actually had to do a double check to make sure it wasn't a prank. If this is anything close to the real draft than this is a year where there will definitely be first round talent in the bottom of the draft. I don't know what ISS is smoking but...

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03-16-2013, 12:10 AM
  #202
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Where exactly will the various levels break down for this year's draft, particularly in the top 15?

Tier 1
Seth Jones
Nathan MacKinnon
Jonathan Drouin

Tier 2
Sasha Barkov
Elias Lindholm
Sean Monahan
Valeri Nichushkin

Tier 3
Darnell Nurse
Nikita Zadorov
Rasmus Ristolainen
Hunter Shinkaruk
Adam Erne
Ryan Pulock

Obviously there are a couple of wild cards who could move up or down from here, but is this about right?

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Old
03-16-2013, 12:15 AM
  #203
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Put Barkov in tier 1

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Old
03-16-2013, 12:29 AM
  #204
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Originally Posted by CBJBrassard16 View Post
Put Barkov in tier 1
I figure Tier 1 is only the guys who have a shot at going #1 overall. Jones and MacKinnon have been #1 guys the last 18 months and haven't budged, but I wouldn't be shocked if teams have Drouin #1 internally. I don't think that anyone has Barkov that high.

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03-16-2013, 02:08 AM
  #205
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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
I figure Tier 1 is only the guys who have a shot at going #1 overall. Jones and MacKinnon have been #1 guys the last 18 months and haven't budged, but I wouldn't be shocked if teams have Drouin #1 internally. I don't think that anyone has Barkov that high.
If that's your criteria, then that works.

I haven't made explicit tiers until now, but my criteria are upside and downside, with a bias towards upside. Hockeysfuture (not the best publication, I know) has a pretty good ranking system to capture upside and downside. This is my guess as to how good these players will be.

Tier 1
Jones 9.5C
Mackinnon 9B
Drouin 9C
Barkov 8.5B

Tier 2
Nichushkin 9D
Lindholm 8.5C
Nurse 8.5C
Monahan 8C

Tier 3
don't know enough about these players

I just found this thread with a lot of their past rankings in it Crosby, JJ, etc..

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Old
03-16-2013, 07:29 AM
  #206
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Interesting rating on Nichuskin. 2nd best talent but Zherdev/Filatov
downside.

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Old
03-16-2013, 01:45 PM
  #207
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Where exactly will the various levels break down for this year's draft, particularly in the top 15?

Tier 1
Seth Jones
Nathan MacKinnon
Jonathan Drouin

Tier 2
Sasha Barkov
Elias Lindholm
Sean Monahan
Valeri Nichushkin

Tier 3
Darnell Nurse
Nikita Zadorov
Rasmus Ristolainen
Hunter Shinkaruk
Adam Erne
Ryan Pulock

Obviously there are a couple of wild cards who could move up or down from here, but is this about right?
"Tier 1"
Seth Jones, Nathan MacKinnon

"Tier 2"
Jonathan Drouin, Aleksander Barkov, Valeri Nichuskin

"Tier 3"
Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm

"Tier 4"
This would be a huge list of guys ranging from Nurse/Zadorov, to Shinkaruk/Erne ... probably 8-10 players long.

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Old
03-16-2013, 01:52 PM
  #208
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If there is a character issue with Nichuskin, we won't go anywhere near him.

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Old
03-16-2013, 02:00 PM
  #209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sore Loser View Post
"Tier 1"
Seth Jones, Nathan MacKinnon

"Tier 2"
Jonathan Drouin, Aleksander Barkov, Valeri Nichuskin

"Tier 3"
Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm

"Tier 4"
This would be a huge list of guys ranging from Nurse/Zadorov, to Shinkaruk/Erne ... probably 8-10 players long.
What is your opinion on Monahan? I find him to be the quintessential Toews light, plays a similar game but projects inferior to Toews in every facet of the game.

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03-16-2013, 02:48 PM
  #210
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Originally Posted by alphafox View Post
What is your opinion on Monahan? I find him to be the quintessential Toews light, plays a similar game but projects inferior to Toews in every facet of the game.
Fair statement. I compared him to Jordan Staal on an earlier post in this thread, and I think that's a fair comparison to his top level upside. Thing is, with a guy like this, you're pretty much guaranteed an NHL player - I would say he's a "safe" pick in that regard ... his bottom end potential, for me, is that of someone like Colton Gillies. He won't likely be a superstar in the NHL, but he should be a solid player - somewhere between a second line and fourth line center.

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Old
03-16-2013, 10:43 PM
  #211
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Originally Posted by Sore Loser View Post
Fair statement. I compared him to Jordan Staal on an earlier post in this thread, and I think that's a fair comparison to his top level upside. Thing is, with a guy like this, you're pretty much guaranteed an NHL player - I would say he's a "safe" pick in that regard ... his bottom end potential, for me, is that of someone like Colton Gillies. He won't likely be a superstar in the NHL, but he should be a solid player - somewhere between a second line and fourth line center.
I've heard that a good thing about drafting Monahan is you know you're getting a decent player. But then you say his bottom end is Colton Gillies! I think Gillies is nearly useless.

Sore Loser, do you want to try to put number/letter scores of the upside and downside for the top 10 or so in the draft? I like having consistent criteria in evaluating draft choices.

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Old
03-16-2013, 11:42 PM
  #212
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Originally Posted by major major View Post
I've heard that a good thing about drafting Monahan is you know you're getting a decent player. But then you say his bottom end is Colton Gillies! I think Gillies is nearly useless.

Sore Loser, do you want to try to put number/letter scores of the upside and downside for the top 10 or so in the draft? I like having consistent criteria in evaluating draft choices.
I typically don't assess number/letter scores for players ... I like to rate guys based on what I see. One example I'll use is Emerson Etem. It wouldn't be fair for me to compare his skating to a guy like Quinton Howden - who went a few picks ahead of him - because their strides are so incredibly different. So, if I give Howden one rating, I don't feel comfortable giving a different rating to Etem, because I think they have similar top end speed. I take in a guy's whole game usually, and then make my own judgments on how they play overall.

If I were evaluating Hunter Shinkaruk, my notes read something like: Quick stride, above average skater with good acceleration. Excellent shot, quick, deceptive release, has great offensive vision and catches his teammates off guard with his passing abilities. Better physically than I expected, good (not great) in his own end. Battles in the corners and in all three zones. Good leader, sets a solid example for his team. Needs to get stronger to be most effective.

I have some notes on most of the guys you'll hear of at the draft, but the WHL guys are my forte, so I tend to know the most about them. It would be pretty hard for me to come up with something like that for all of the top-10 guys ... but I have seen them all play quite a bit.

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03-17-2013, 12:04 AM
  #213
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Originally Posted by Sore Loser View Post
I typically don't assess number/letter scores for players ... I like to rate guys based on what I see. One example I'll use is Emerson Etem. It wouldn't be fair for me to compare his skating to a guy like Quinton Howden - who went a few picks ahead of him - because their strides are so incredibly different. So, if I give Howden one rating, I don't feel comfortable giving a different rating to Etem, because I think they have similar top end speed. I take in a guy's whole game usually, and then make my own judgments on how they play overall.

If I were evaluating Hunter Shinkaruk, my notes read something like: Quick stride, above average skater with good acceleration. Excellent shot, quick, deceptive release, has great offensive vision and catches his teammates off guard with his passing abilities. Better physically than I expected, good (not great) in his own end. Battles in the corners and in all three zones. Good leader, sets a solid example for his team. Needs to get stronger to be most effective.

I have some notes on most of the guys you'll hear of at the draft, but the WHL guys are my forte, so I tend to know the most about them. It would be pretty hard for me to come up with something like that for all of the top-10 guys ... but I have seen them all play quite a bit.
Well I meant using the hockeysfuture rating system. Its just a code for much of what you are already saying. So when you just said Monahan could be a good second line c, but will definitely be at least a 4th liner, that's a 7.5C. This doesn't replace narratives, but its a shorthand for upside/downside.

I also love the narrative evaluations, so whatever you want to share!

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Old
03-17-2013, 12:17 AM
  #214
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If there is a character issue with Nichuskin, we won't go anywhere near him.
I haven't read anything about folks questioning Nichushkin's character. The two issues I hear about with him are:

(1) KHL. He's already committed there through 2015, and you can be sure he'll have KHL employers continuing to woo him after that.

(2) Hockey sense. He can put his head down and bull/dangle his way through people and look like Malkin, but can he think/pass like Malkin? I haven't heard anyone come out and say "He doesn't have hockey sense", but he hasn't used his linemates or shown enough yet to prove that he does have the vision and hockey sense.

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Old
03-17-2013, 05:11 AM
  #215
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Nice to see Jackets performing well atm but that also means chances for good picks fall a little bit... tough situation but the sport's about winning and not tanking/losing.

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Old
03-17-2013, 06:03 AM
  #216
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Nice to see Jackets performing well atm but that also means chances for good picks fall a little bit... tough situation but the sport's about winning and not tanking/losing.
That's okay; the Rangers and Kings are doing the losing for us.

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Old
03-17-2013, 06:04 AM
  #217
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Dumb question, but what are the chances we can get Drouin with the Rags or Kings pick?? I don't know how highly he's rated. Maybe we take him with our own pick?

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Old
03-17-2013, 06:43 AM
  #218
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Dumb question, but what are the chances we can get Drouin with the Rags or Kings pick?? I don't know how highly he's rated. Maybe we take him with our own pick?
He's seeming like lock for top five. Have to win the lottery imo.

I don't see Rangers or Kings missing the playoffs. There's chance but I won't count on it.

So unless we start losing or win the lottery (lol) I think the chances are minimal.

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Old
03-17-2013, 10:30 AM
  #219
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I think the chances of us getting in the top 3

Quote:
Originally Posted by Timeless Winter View Post
Dumb question, but what are the chances we can get Drouin with the Rags or Kings pick?? I don't know how highly he's rated. Maybe we take him with our own pick?
at this point is not very good. We end with most of our games on the road so the play of late may not be enough to keep this points streak alive: also there may be deadline moves that strip us of key components too, but even so I think our highest pick will be 6-10 again.

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03-17-2013, 12:39 PM
  #220
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Well I meant using the hockeysfuture rating system. Its just a code for much of what you are already saying. So when you just said Monahan could be a good second line c, but will definitely be at least a 4th liner, that's a 7.5C. This doesn't replace narratives, but its a shorthand for upside/downside.

I also love the narrative evaluations, so whatever you want to share!
Ah yes, the old HF ratings system. Not personally a big fan of that system either

But, for giggles:

Seth Jones: 9.0C
Nathan MacKinnon: 8.5B
Jonathan Drouin: 8.5C
Aleksander Barkov: 8.0B
Sean Monahan: 7.5B
Elias Lindholm: 7.5C
Valeri Nichuskin: 8.0C
Nikita Zadorov: 7.5C
Rasmus Ristolainen: 7.5C
Darnell Nurse: 7.5C

My best guesstimates, anyhow. Nichuskin's upside is huge, but there is the real threat of him never coming over ... otherwise, he could be included in that mix of top-4/5 guys.

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03-20-2013, 12:38 AM
  #221
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I don't see Rangers or Kings missing the playoffs. There's chance but I won't count on it.
I can see the Rangers missing them very easily. Thay had no reason to win vs. Carolina the other day and they should've given up 4+ goals in the first period, but came away only given up one because of Henrik "rubber-band man" Lundqvist.

After their next 2 games(Fla. Wsh) they got a tough stretch of seven games(@Philly, @Ott(lost both meetings so far),@Mtl.(lost both), Win(lost both), home & home with Pitt(0-3 so far), @ Car.) They're 3-10 so far vs. these 6 teams so far this season. Now after that it's obviously becomes more easy, but they still have 2 vs. Tor & NYD which they're neck and neck with for playoffs right now & only 10 games will be left. If they struggle during those 7 games, they could be hurting for those last 10.

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03-20-2013, 12:48 AM
  #222
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Now for the actual draft. I believe we're currently looking at 12, 16, & 24 when it comes to the draft. I would not be shocked if we traded the 12 & 24 to move up to get say a Barkov or Monahan, BUT if we don't then a Shinkaruk-Gauthier-Rychel would not be the most glamorous, but I'd be happy with it.

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03-20-2013, 01:09 AM
  #223
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Originally Posted by georgiabluejacket View Post
Now for the actual draft. I believe we're currently looking at 12, 16, & 24 when it comes to the draft. I would not be shocked if we traded the 12 & 24 to move up to get say a Barkov or Monahan, BUT if we don't then a Shinkaruk-Gauthier-Rychel would not be the most glamorous, but I'd be happy with it.
I hesitate to say this, but at this point I think we're looking at 3 picks between 10-20.

We may or may not make the playoffs, but we're sure to be a first round exit, as we would have to play one of CHI or ANH. I would bet that LA & NYR will be first round exits as well given the competition they likely will have to face.

With 3 picks in the teens I think we will stand pat (even though I would prefer to make the trade up). I'm willing to bet that ownership (read: JK) believes that they can find guys throughout this draft. I would be willing to bet $ that we use picks acquired at the deadline to around a few spots to grab guys.

Personally given the drafting philosophy of JK and JD I would guess Shinkaruk, Domi, and Erne which would be a pretty stellar draft without a top 10 pick. All are guys renowned for their hard work on the ice, and other than a relatively minor blip with Erne all show great leadership characteristics. Also Domi and Shinkaruk are both extremely highly skilled guys while Erne is only a bit behind IMO in the offensive department.

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Old
03-20-2013, 01:31 AM
  #224
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I hesitate to say this, but at this point I think we're looking at 3 picks between 10-20.

We may or may not make the playoffs, but we're sure to be a first round exit, as we would have to play one of CHI or ANH. I would bet that LA & NYR will be first round exits as well given the competition they likely will have to face.
We are not "sure to be a first round exit" by any means. We're only 4 points out of the 6th playoff spot with a lot of the teams ahead of us to play each other. For instance
-Det(7th) has to play Pho(9th) 3 more times, Ana & Chi 2 more times.
-SJ(8th) still has 2 games vs. Det, L.A., & Pho.
-St. Louis is currently at 5 and they have 3 games vs. Chicago, 2 vs. Min, & 2 vs. those those mean S.O.B's....us.

Now look at our schedule. We have 18 games left with 8 of those vs. teams below us in the standings. Of the 10 that aren't we got 2 vs St. Louis, 2 vs. SJ, & 2 vs. Min who we are within 4 points of(Min leads their division, but that's beside the point) That's 14 very easily winnable games and that doesn't even take into account the "surprise" wins we could get from Ana, LA, or Van.

Even if we did end up as the 7th or 8th seed, doesn't mean we can't "pee" on everybodies wheaties. Ask LA what a hot goalie can do for you in the playoffs.

I also don't see LA going out in the first round either. Right now they are slated to play the Blues. That's LA in 5 at most. Now most likely they'll have to go to Chi in the second round which I'd agree they will bow out hopefully screaming and with the whiny B sucking his thumb in corner crying.


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03-20-2013, 05:48 AM
  #225
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Good news is the jackets are playing very well. Bad news is this thread isn't as much fun now.

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