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2013 Draft Discussion (Mar. 29 article, post #976)

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Old
03-15-2013, 11:34 PM
  #576
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Originally Posted by snoop88 View Post
the whole "stack up on offense and ignore defense and goaltending" philosophy has really worked out well for us in the past 25 years.



Seth Jones is a potential franchise defensemen. That would make a huge huge impact on this franchise and it's future.


Drouin and Mackinnon are great consolation prizes, but ultimately leave us in the same spot we are now. Dynamic offense, not many difference makers on defense and in goal.
This, exactly. And it will mean Homer will then have to do more scrambling to find at least one, and probably two, "puck moving" d-men through trade or free agency.

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03-16-2013, 12:27 AM
  #577
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Originally Posted by JackStraw View Post
Well, of the top 10 D in scoring right I count 5 first rounders:

Suter
Kronwall
Shattenkirk
Pietrangelo
OEL

And of course Karlsson would certainly be there if he was playing.

You could say that drafting anyone is a crapshoot, but some are lower risk than others. Barring a real head case, talent will generally show itself sooner or later. When was the last time a defenseman was a consensus #1 like Jones is now? Erik Johnson was last d-man taken #1 overall, in 2006. Before that you go back another 10 years to 1996 (Chris Phillips).

And of the the d-men who have been taken with high picks (but not #1) recent years, are they doing so badly? OEL, Hedman, Pietrangalo, Doughty, heck even Luke Schenn?
I think an interesting question might be how many of the #1 defensemen in TOI/G for each team were 1st round picks? I don't know the answer, but suspect it might be higher than a comparative list of top scoring defensemen draft positions.

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03-16-2013, 12:52 AM
  #578
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Over the past five years, here are the defensemen drafted in the first round that won a cup:

2012 -
Drew doughty

2011 -
None

2010 -
Brent Seabrook
Nick Boynton (if you count him)

2009 -
Sergei Gonchar
Brooks Orpik
Philippe Boucher (only played a handful of playoff games)

2008 -
Niklas Kronvall
Brad Stuart

It's really not impressive. Obviously elite defense prospects are welcome on any team, but I don't think going all out to draft a D high in the first is a great idea. Even the first round defensemen that win a cup, often do it well into their career, often with teams that did not originally draft them. Defensemen take a while to develop properly (at least a well-rounded game), and benefit more from veteran experience.

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03-16-2013, 01:44 AM
  #579
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Gimme Ristolainen if we can't get Jones (likely unless any semblance of talent/effort falls RIGHT out of the team) and I'll be happy. Nurse, Pulock and Zadorov aren't bad either. My fear is that we fall in a spot where we go BPA and the best players are clearly forwards...

I think it's clear that we should be drafting heavily at defense. Even if we get a high end forward but then get a defender in the 2nd and the 3rd I could be satisfied depending on the forward.

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03-16-2013, 08:52 AM
  #580
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Flyers should be drafting BPA that fits the organization's philosophy. The BPA is Jones.

Jones:

1) Fills a need.
2) BPA.
3) Fits in with the long term plans of the team
4) Fits in with the organizational philosophy
5) He solves a lot of future problems - moves our D man down a peg where they should be

That being said-- if the Flyers end up getting Droin, MacKinnon, any of the talented guys in the top ten, like Nurse, Risto (who I like) etc.. it's not bad.

Jones is like Andrew Luck that needs more time to develop, but can have that kind of organizational impact: A big step forward.

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03-16-2013, 10:46 AM
  #581
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Norm MacDonald View Post
Over the past five years, here are the defensemen drafted in the first round that won a cup:

2012 -
Drew doughty

2011 -
None

2010 -
Brent Seabrook
Nick Boynton (if you count him)

2009 -
Sergei Gonchar
Brooks Orpik
Philippe Boucher (only played a handful of playoff games)

2008 -
Niklas Kronvall
Brad Stuart

It's really not impressive. Obviously elite defense prospects are welcome on any team, but I don't think going all out to draft a D high in the first is a great idea. Even the first round defensemen that win a cup, often do it well into their career, often with teams that did not originally draft them. Defensemen take a while to develop properly (at least a well-rounded game), and benefit more from veteran experience.
It's not really unimpressive either though. So every year since 2008, except for 2011, the Cup winner has had a defenseman who was drafted in the 1st round? Seems worth thinking about to me. But the point isn't really where the guy was drafted. Every one of those teams, except I think Pitt, has had a Norris winner or finalist on the team (even if it wasn't the same year). And Pitt had Gonchar who was twice 4th in the Norris voting, and of course a young Letang.

The point is that these guys are franchise defensemen regardless of where they were drafted. Does anyone really believe that the Flyers can draft a Nick Lidstrom in the the 3rd round? I'm sorry but I don't see a remote chance of that happening, given their track record (or lack thereof) drafting defensemen.

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03-16-2013, 12:12 PM
  #582
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Originally Posted by JackStraw View Post
It's not really unimpressive either though. So every year since 2008, except for 2011, the Cup winner has had a defenseman who was drafted in the 1st round? Seems worth thinking about to me. But the point isn't really where the guy was drafted. Every one of those teams, except I think Pitt, has had a Norris winner or finalist on the team (even if it wasn't the same year). And Pitt had Gonchar who was twice 4th in the Norris voting, and of course a young Letang.

The point is that these guys are franchise defensemen regardless of where they were drafted. Does anyone really believe that the Flyers can draft a Nick Lidstrom in the the 3rd round? I'm sorry but I don't see a remote chance of that happening, given their track record (or lack thereof) drafting defensemen.
I'd be more comfortable with the defensemen if someone other than Kjell Samuelsson were responsible for developing them. The Flyers haven't been able to develop a defenseman because the guy who is responsible for helping them develop at the pro level sucks at developing defenseman. I get what you're saying about the Flyers drafting a Lidstrom in the later rounds, but in 10 years, not one defenseman drafted has made it. 10 years. I don't buy that the Flyers are terrible at drafting defensemen. This is squarely on the development system that is in place and it's clear that for 10 years, something in the system has been wrong. The one common denominator? Kjell Samuelsson. He needs to go and they need to get someone in there who knows about developing defensemen. I'd be perfectly content if they moved Hatcher into that role or if they bring back Desjardins for that role. Whatever they do, Samuelsson needs to go.

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03-16-2013, 12:17 PM
  #583
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Looking at our record, I don't think we can Jones unless we trade up. Our pick is probably gonna be high enough to get Nurse or Ristolainen, though. It would be cool if we could also get a late first in a trade and they draft Hagg. Having 2 good Dmen to develop together would be really nice and it would change the face of our prospect pool.

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03-16-2013, 12:19 PM
  #584
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
I'd be more comfortable with the defensemen if someone other than Kjell Samuelsson were responsible for developing them. The Flyers haven't been able to develop a defenseman because the guy who is responsible for helping them develop at the pro level sucks at developing defenseman. I get what you're saying about the Flyers drafting a Lidstrom in the later rounds, but in 10 years, not one defenseman drafted has made it. 10 years. I don't buy that the Flyers are terrible at drafting defensemen. This is squarely on the development system that is in place and it's clear that for 10 years, something in the system has been wrong. The one common denominator? Kjell Samuelsson. He needs to go and they need to get someone in there who knows about developing defensemen. I'd be perfectly content if they moved Hatcher into that role or if they bring back Desjardins for that role. Whatever they do, Samuelsson needs to go.
Sound like a job for captain elbows

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03-16-2013, 12:21 PM
  #585
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
I'd be more comfortable with the defensemen if someone other than Kjell Samuelsson were responsible for developing them. The Flyers haven't been able to develop a defenseman because the guy who is responsible for helping them develop at the pro level sucks at developing defenseman. I get what you're saying about the Flyers drafting a Lidstrom in the later rounds, but in 10 years, not one defenseman drafted has made it. 10 years. I don't buy that the Flyers are terrible at drafting defensemen. This is squarely on the development system that is in place and it's clear that for 10 years, something in the system has been wrong. The one common denominator? Kjell Samuelsson. He needs to go and they need to get someone in there who knows about developing defensemen. I'd be perfectly content if they moved Hatcher into that role or if they bring back Desjardins for that role. Whatever they do, Samuelsson needs to go.
Can't disagree with that. I would love to see either of the guys you mention assume that role. I know Hatcher was involved in some way with the defensemen, is he still?

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03-16-2013, 12:22 PM
  #586
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
I'd be more comfortable with the defensemen if someone other than Kjell Samuelsson were responsible for developing them. The Flyers haven't been able to develop a defenseman because the guy who is responsible for helping them develop at the pro level sucks at developing defenseman. I get what you're saying about the Flyers drafting a Lidstrom in the later rounds, but in 10 years, not one defenseman drafted has made it. 10 years. I don't buy that the Flyers are terrible at drafting defensemen. This is squarely on the development system that is in place and it's clear that for 10 years, something in the system has been wrong. The one common denominator? Kjell Samuelsson. He needs to go and they need to get someone in there who knows about developing defensemen. I'd be perfectly content if they moved Hatcher into that role or if they bring back Desjardins for that role. Whatever they do, Samuelsson needs to go.
I think when kimmo retires, he will step into that role. That is what is kill to see, or maybe pronged is well enough next year and does so... That would be sick.

Also, Reese has to go.

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03-16-2013, 12:26 PM
  #587
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Originally Posted by dingbathero View Post
I think when kimmo retires, he will step into that role. That is what is kill to see, or maybe pronged is well enough next year and does so... That would be sick.

Also, Reese has to go.
I think Kimmo will go back to Finland as soon as he retires.

Can Pronger officially take over that kind of role while he is under contract as a player? Also, I don't think he's that tied into staying around Philadelphia as his roots seem to be grounded in St. Louis.

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03-16-2013, 12:40 PM
  #588
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the whole "stack up on offense and ignore defense and goaltending" philosophy has really worked out well for us in the past 25 years.
It's funny when people say they've ignored defense. The Flyers have drafted defensemen and defensemen with lots of upside. It's not a problem with the talent they've drafted. It all comes down to development and there's something wrong with the development plan in Philadelphia that defensemen just don't make it. The system is clearly broken and it isn't just about drafting better defensemen. There's something fundamentally broken.

Quote:
Originally Posted by snoop88 View Post
Seth Jones is a potential franchise defensemen. That would make a huge huge impact on this franchise and it's future.
So are Nurse, Ritstolainen, Pulock, Morrissey and Zadorov. There seems to be a misconception that none of the other defensemen in this draft measure up to Jones. Jones might be the top rated player in this draft, but the difference between Jones and the rest of the defensemen in this draft isn't as big as a chasm as people seem to think it is. If the Flyers end up with one of the others not named Jones, it's going to be perfectly fine.

Quote:
Originally Posted by snoop88 View Post
Drouin and Mackinnon are great consolation prizes, but ultimately leave us in the same spot we are now. Dynamic offense, not many difference makers on defense and in goal.
If Drouin, Mackinnon, Barkov, or Monahan are the consolation prizes, there's nothing wrong with that either. There's so many ways that this can go. The Flyers have such good forward depth that they could easily move a Couturier or a Laughton (not advocating moving either, just saying that they can) and could easily get something very good in return. The notion that the franchise "needs" Jones in order to get back on track is a little far fetched. The Flyers need to retool and reorganize. There's still an incredibly good foundation in place and there's some good cornerstones and a franchise player in place. Some of the supporting cast though need to be replaced.

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03-16-2013, 12:57 PM
  #589
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
So are Nurse, Ritstolainen, Pulock, Morrissey and Zadorov. There seems to be a misconception that none of the other defensemen in this draft measure up to Jones. Jones might be the top rated player in this draft, but the difference between Jones and the rest of the defensemen in this draft isn't as big as a chasm as people seem to think it is. If the Flyers end up with one of the others not named Jones, it's going to be perfectly fine.
I think there's a pretty clear consensus that the gap between Jones and the next best defenseman is massively larger than between the top two forwards--since some scouts seem to disagree on whether MacKinnon or Drouin is the best forward in the draft.

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03-16-2013, 01:57 PM
  #590
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From a developmental point of view, too, my inexpert opinion is that the Phantoms need a pretty significant shake-up in both system and personnel to be a strong talent generator for the Flyers. It must be pretty disheartening to be on a bottom-dwelling team that is not contributing to a winning mentality. I can't help but think that if this year's draft brings in 2-3 significant players who can contribute significantly in the lower levels, the end result will be a better pipeline.

That also puts the spotlight on the coaches. I'd love to have a future HoFer like Pronger working with the young defenseman, or if Timonen would sign onto this after retirement. Hatcher or Desjardins are also very good candidates. But a change is clearly needed.

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03-16-2013, 02:05 PM
  #591
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From a developmental point of view, too, my inexpert opinion is that the Phantoms need a pretty significant shake-up in both system and personnel to be a strong talent generator for the Flyers. It must be pretty disheartening to be on a bottom-dwelling team that is not contributing to a winning mentality. I can't help but think that if this year's draft brings in 2-3 significant players who can contribute significantly in the lower levels, the end result will be a better pipeline.

That also puts the spotlight on the coaches. I'd love to have a future HoFer like Pronger working with the young defenseman, or if Timonen would sign onto this after retirement. Hatcher or Desjardins are also very good candidates. But a change is clearly needed.
I agree but it also helps when you have talented players on the team. That's something the Phantoms have lacked for a couple of years now. They should be better next year with Cousins and a couple of other guys coming in maybe even Ghost.

The trade Homer has made in the last few year have left the cupboards pretty empty. As long as we keep the majority of our draft picks you'll see the Phantoms improve.

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03-16-2013, 02:11 PM
  #592
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
I'd be more comfortable with the defensemen if someone other than Kjell Samuelsson were responsible for developing them. The Flyers haven't been able to develop a defenseman because the guy who is responsible for helping them develop at the pro level sucks at developing defenseman. I get what you're saying about the Flyers drafting a Lidstrom in the later rounds, but in 10 years, not one defenseman drafted has made it. 10 years. I don't buy that the Flyers are terrible at drafting defensemen. This is squarely on the development system that is in place and it's clear that for 10 years, something in the system has been wrong. The one common denominator? Kjell Samuelsson. He needs to go and they need to get someone in there who knows about developing defensemen. I'd be perfectly content if they moved Hatcher into that role or if they bring back Desjardins for that role. Whatever they do, Samuelsson needs to go.
Samuelsson is going nowhere. Flyers are about loyalty in positions like he has.

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03-16-2013, 02:23 PM
  #593
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I think Kimmo will go back to Finland as soon as he retires.

Can Pronger officially take over that kind of role while he is under contract as a player? Also, I don't think he's that tied into staying around Philadelphia as his roots seem to be grounded in St. Louis.
I believe his wife is from St. Louis so I wouldn't be surprised if his roots are there to be close to her family.

I actually think captain elbows would make a great coach at some point in the future if he could get healthy enough to commit himself to the task. It's a real shame, not only for his playing career, but because I always thought Pronger would be one of those guys who you'd see around the game until he was like 70, whether it be as a coach, gm etc.

I wouldn't be opposed to bringing a guy like hatcher in, however hatcher was mostly successful in the 'clutch and grab' era if you will... Not sure how much he'd be able to add to a young defensemans game today, but I bet it'd still be more than kjell is...

I think a guy like Eric Desjardins would be a perfect option.

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03-16-2013, 03:07 PM
  #594
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It's not really unimpressive either though. So every year since 2008, except for 2011, the Cup winner has had a defenseman who was drafted in the 1st round? Seems worth thinking about to me. But the point isn't really where the guy was drafted. Every one of those teams, except I think Pitt, has had a Norris winner or finalist on the team (even if it wasn't the same year). And Pitt had Gonchar who was twice 4th in the Norris voting, and of course a young Letang.
By comparison, the Flyers have three first round defenders on the roster. The last place Panthers also have three. In Pittsburgh's case, Letang wasn't a first rounder and Gonchar was selected by the Capitals years ago.
Quote:
The point is that these guys are franchise defensemen regardless of where they were drafted. Does anyone really believe that the Flyers can draft a Nick Lidstrom in the the 3rd round? I'm sorry but I don't see a remote chance of that happening, given their track record (or lack thereof) drafting defensemen.
My point is that the developmental curve of defense prospects is a lot more volatile than forwards, which is why guys like Lidstrom can be drafted in the third round. It's tough to tell whether 18-year-old kids are going to have a successful NHL career, and even harder for defensemen. Of course drafting great D is important, but the answer is in quality amateur scouting, proper player development, and a LOT of luck.

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03-16-2013, 04:12 PM
  #595
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I agree but it also helps when you have talented players on the team. That's something the Phantoms have lacked for a couple of years now. They should be better next year with Cousins and a couple of other guys coming in maybe even Ghost.

The trade Homer has made in the last few year have left the cupboards pretty empty. As long as we keep the majority of our draft picks you'll see the Phantoms improve.
Yep, that was part of my meandering point. Rather than having tunnel vision about drafting the guy in the 1st round who can contribute hugely next season, it's also important to get those talented players onto the Phantoms. Even the AHL stars who don't project to crack an NHL line-up can help a Cousins or Gostisbehere to improve their game rather than playing alongside scrubs.

By extension, having a strong team means playing in more meaningful games, which means opportunities to excel in high-pressure situations, etc., etc., etc.

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03-16-2013, 04:14 PM
  #596
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By comparison, the Flyers have three first round defenders on the roster. The last place Panthers also have three. In Pittsburgh's case, Letang wasn't a first rounder and Gonchar was selected by the Capitals years ago.

My point is that the developmental curve of defense prospects is a lot more volatile than forwards, which is why guys like Lidstrom can be drafted in the third round. It's tough to tell whether 18-year-old kids are going to have a successful NHL career, and even harder for defensemen. Of course drafting great D is important, but the answer is in quality amateur scouting, proper player development, and a LOT of luck.
I understand your point, and don't really disagree as far as it goes. But just because some good defensemen were drafted after the first round doesn't mean that it makes sense to pass on a highly rated prospect that's available to you in the first round. Look at the defensemen who were taken in the first round in 2008:

Doughty
Bogosian
Pietrangelo
Schenn
Myers
Teubert
Karlsson
Gardiner
Sbisa
Del Zotto
Carlson

Half of top 20 were D, and all but Teubert and I suppose you could say Gardiner (who looks like one), are solid NHL'ers. Three could legitimately be called franchise defensemen. One or two others may get to that point eventually.

If you need D, and you're drafting in a position to take one who meets your needs (i.e., the Flyers don't really need another shut-down type guy) then why would you not do it? It's not as if first round D men never (or even rarely) pan out.

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03-17-2013, 12:10 PM
  #597
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Samuelsson is going nowhere. Flyers are about loyalty in positions like he has.
I wouldn't jump to that conclusion so quickly. Nobody thought Rejean Lemelin would ever be let go of his goaltending coach position and he was let go. I think the shelf life on Samuelsson is about to expire and that the Flyers have some capable replacements in the system for him.

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03-17-2013, 01:32 PM
  #598
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I wouldn't jump to that conclusion so quickly. Nobody thought Rejean Lemelin would ever be let go of his goaltending coach position and he was let go. I think the shelf life on Samuelsson is about to expire and that the Flyers have some capable replacements in the system for him.
If we could pry Mark Howe from Detroit, maybe he could be the guy?

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03-18-2013, 08:57 PM
  #599
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This draft is absolutely loaded. What a golden opportunity the Flyers have.



Even the lower end of the top 10 and the 20's has studs. Nurse, Monahan, Lindholm, Theodore, Jordan Subban, Max Domi.




Tank for Seth. Trade Briere for a late 1st.


1st. - Seth Jones
20th- Max Domi


Win hockey

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03-18-2013, 09:18 PM
  #600
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This draft is absolutely loaded. What a golden opportunity the Flyers have.



Even the lower end of the top 10 and the 20's has studs. Nurse, Monahan, Lindholm, Theodore, Jordan Subban, Max Domi.




Tank for Seth. Trade Briere for a late 1st.


1st. - Seth Jones
20th- Max Domi


Win hockey

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